Just want to add to the 21-leg theory:
Leg 1: Melbourne to Ouarzazate, Morocco (Group B - I'm actually inclined to think "Group B" in our spoilers is "Group A" on the actual season as Beau is present at this starting line but for the sake of this post I will be referring to our Spoiled Group B). 10 teams race, 1 team eliminated in 20th.
Leg 2: Sydney to Marrakesh, Morocco (Group A) 10 teams race, Alex & Sam likely eliminated in 19th.
Leg 3: Chefchaouen, Morocco (Merge?) 18 teams race, 1 team eliminated in 18th.
Leg 4-6: Greece 17 teams race, three teams eliminated in 17th-15th place.
Leg 7-9: Turkey 14 teams race, three teams eliminated in 14th-12th place.
Leg 10-12: Colombia 11 teams race, three teams eliminated in 11th-9th place, one of which is Nara & Glennon.
Leg 13-15: Belize 9 teams race, two teams eliminated in 8th-7th place. I'm speculating we have an NEL burned by now, as we saw exactly eight teams in what might be Belize 2. Absolutely no basis to say only 2 teams eliminated in Belize, but I definitely think Belize 2 is our F8 leg.
Leg 16-18: Mexico 6 teams race, 2 teams eliminated in 6th/5th place, one of which is Steph & Lauren.
Leg 19-21: Australia 4 teams race, Mori & Pako eliminated, likely F3 NEL, Finale. We have absolutely no sightings of Tiffany & Cynthia in the 2nd WA leg, but we definitely have three WA legs as timeline of events live were: Mori & Pako seen racing at dusk → They resurface on social media → Proper leg on the next day (the now infamous sighting of Kelly & Georgia heading to the South Mole Lighthouse Pit Stop) → Finale two days later.
I think this could happen. I don't see them withholding any country from the route at this stage, three legs per country/week seem feasible, and our sightings align with this, factoring in the slightly extended schedule in Greece/Turkey due to the COVID breach.