Topic: TAR AUS 6 DISCUSSION of the LIVE SPOILERS

[fossil-racer]

Going through social media activity (Instagram profiles are still protected but will likely open up when the show begins) and while there's a huge gap in our boot order, I think we can safely assume that at the start of the season, half of the teams from Group A are eliminated almost immediately.

Sam & Stuart, Reem & Crystal, Morgan & Lilli, Nara & Glennon, and Sam & Alex all followed each other at around the same time. All of these teams were home two days after that Scott sighting in Izmir happened. Assuming we had 3 Morocco, 3 Greece, and 1 Turkey leg by this point, it would mean that 6/7 of these legs are elimination legs (the sighting of the mysterious Team #19 in Morocco implies Leg 3 is an NEL with Salvage/Sabotage). This means that the first 6 boots are only one team from Group B due to the twist, and everyone else was Group A.

As for the midgame and endgame it's an even bigger blank, but I think it's highly possible that the 8 teams we saw in Caye Caulker really was our Final 8.

I agree that we most likely saw the final 8 in Caye Caulker. Gabi/Flick definitely didn't make it to Mexico. They were back running their coffee shop. Mori/Pako were eliminated before the finale for sure.

Between Turkey 2 and  Belize (Caye Caulker), 6 eliminations had to take place to get to 8, if 6 eliminations already happened.

3 Morocco, 3 Greece, and 1 Turkey - 6 eliminations / 1 non-elimination
2 Turkey, 3 Colombia, 1 Belize - 6 eliminations
Between Caye Caulker and Finale - 5 eliminations

I think we could have 2 Belize legs before Caye Caulker or missed a country because I don't think they would do 6 straight eliminations.

It also seems likely for 20 legs (17 eliminations, 2 non-eliminations). I don't see how it could be 24 atm.

[I ♥ TAR]

Mori/Pako were eliminated before the finale for sure.

Are Mori & Pako 4th place team eliminated in Fremantle then? Does this make red FF team of aunt & nephew our 3rd finalist?

[fossil-racer]

Mori/Pako were eliminated before the finale for sure.

Are Mori & Pako 4th place team eliminated in Fremantle then? Does this make red FF team of aunt & nephew our 3rd finalist?

I think Perth. They were active during the Fremantle leg.

[I ♥ TAR]

Mori/Pako were eliminated before the finale for sure.

Are Mori & Pako 4th place team eliminated in Fremantle then? Does this make red FF team of aunt & nephew our 3rd finalist?

I think Perth. They were active during the Fremantle leg.

3 legs were raced in Australia, right?

2nd to last leg - Perth - Mori & Pako last seen, most likely eliminated because of SM activity during Fremantle leg.
1st to last leg - Fremantle - red FF of aunt & nephew last seen.
last leg - Broome - green MF & orange MF confirmed to be finalists.

Unless there was F4/F3 NEL, it looks like Mori & Pako are our 5th place team and than there is one unknown team who made at least F4. I wonder who it can be.

 

[fossil-racer]

So with the sighting and thoughts above, here is what the eliminations may look like:

1st 6 Eliminated
Group A: Sam & Stuart, Reem & Crystal, Morgan & Lilli, Nara & Glennon, and Sam & Alex
Group B:
Missing: 1
2nd 6 Eliminated
Group A: Kathy/Chace
Group B: Gabi/Flick
Missing: 4
Final 8:
Last Seen in Belize: Toni/Heath, Chelsea/Jamus, That Blue Team
Last Seen in Mexico: Lauren/Steph
Last Seen in Perth: Pako/Mori
Last Seen in Fremantle: Tiffany/Cynthia
Final 3: Kelly/Georgia, Francis/Angel and ?

Unknown: 2 Mystery Teams, Blond F/M?, Older FF Team, Flick/Josephine and Asian?? Team

[stunami]

Just a note:
With that picture of Chefchaouen that strongly suggested the return of first class pass.
It IS possible a team is not seen because they won the first class pass and have the leg off.

I think we are in for 24 legs just like last seasons: 3 legs per country/region, and that we are missing one country between Colombia and Turkey!

[OMGitsGARRET]

Gamerfan and I were discussing the possibility of a missed country and he found an Instagram post of a bunch of camera/sound crew with a picture taken in a wintery snowy location. Not sure if we're allowed to post it since it's production, but unless one of the countries they went to already had a super snowy region that they visited, this is probably a missing country with three legs during the ~10 days we had no sightings.

My personal speculation is still 24 legs with each country hosting three legs. Just from a TV production standpoint, in my opinion, it would also make sense for each new country to have two elimination legs and one non-elimination leg so that when it airs on TV three days in a row, there's only one NEL per week.

[Alenaveda]

No. Not production stuff openly posted here. We can't put in risk people's work.

[Joberio]

I don't follow.  Are Tiffany & Cynthia in the F3?  Or is the unknown team?  I am very confused right now.

[I ♥ TAR]

Gamerfan and I were discussing the possibility of a missed country and he found an Instagram post of a bunch of camera/sound crew with a picture taken in a wintery snowy location. Not sure if we're allowed to post it since it's production, but unless one of the countries they went to already had a super snowy region that they visited, this is probably a missing country with three legs during the ~10 days we had no sightings.

My personal speculation is still 24 legs with each country hosting three legs. Just from a TV production standpoint, in my opinion, it would also make sense for each new country to have two elimination legs and one non-elimination leg so that when it airs on TV three days in a row, there's only one NEL per week.

You can share the country without posting the picture, that's allowed.

[fossil-racer]

Gamerfan and I were discussing the possibility of a missed country and he found an Instagram post of a bunch of camera/sound crew with a picture taken in a wintery snowy location. Not sure if we're allowed to post it since it's production, but unless one of the countries they went to already had a super snowy region that they visited, this is probably a missing country with three legs during the ~10 days we had no sightings.

My personal speculation is still 24 legs with each country hosting three legs. Just from a TV production standpoint, in my opinion, it would also make sense for each new country to have two elimination legs and one non-elimination leg so that when it airs on TV three days in a row, there's only one NEL per week.

You can share the country without posting the picture, that's allowed.

Reverse google image search says Whistler BC but a lot of the detectives don't think so.

I think it might be in Europe - Norway or Austria. Think Snowy af European Country

[fossil-racer]

I don't follow.  Are Tiffany & Cynthia in the F3?  Or is the unknown team?  I am very confused right now.

Last Team in final 3 is unconfirmed and unknown.

[stunami]

Could it be in Turkey?
I know in some parts of it there's mountains and snow

[Parasparopagraho]

Cappadocia, which is more in line with Ten's budget than either Scandinavia or the Alps.

[gamerfan09]

I don't follow.  Are Tiffany & Cynthia in the F3?  Or is the unknown team?  I am very confused right now.

Last Team in final 3 is unconfirmed and unknown.

This, and our timeline is updated to reflect this. Unless we have photographic evidence that they were in WA, they remain at risk and unseen since Belize 2.

[fossil-racer]

That clip of running to the Pit Stop again and again from Fremantle seems to be going a little viral on Twitter these past couple days, as "If you thought reality TV was real, watch this"

As I'm looking for teams in Canada, this moment has gone viral again. I'm seeing it everywhere. LOL

[gamerfan09]

Think this could be our route along with a mini timeline to fill in assumptions thanks to the recent Turkey info:

March 5: Start of the season
March 6-10: Morocco filming (five-day period, Legs 1-3)
March 11: Transit/Pre-Prep
March 12-16 (?): Greece filming (five-day period, Legs 4-6)

This is where things get tricky, but considering how they spent five whole days in Morocco, I don't think it's a stretch to assume that Greece was also a potential three-leg stretch filmed over five days.

Now we have a 72-hour shutdown. The 72 hour shutdown timeline is confirmed by a TV Blackbox podcast where they said that production shut down for 72 hours only and resumed. So...

March 16-19: Production shuts down over COVID concerns. Production starts preparing for replacement host Scott to arrive in Turkey.
March 20: Transit/Pre-Prep, Scott seen in a barber shop in Konak, Izmir, Turkey

Now we have that article saying the shoot in Turkey took place over five days. So I'm going to assume that we may have had an afternoon-night leg in Konak. This is possible because we have a confirmed night leg for Leg 1 and our sightings in Athens was also night racing.

March 20-24: Turkey filming (three legs? Konak, Alacati, and then Bornova) Leg 7-9?

Things get a bit trickier here since if we were to assume the five-day theory holds that we have another 5-6 day gap before we saw teams. Ergo, I think we had a missing stretch of three legs in an unknown country that we are yet to hear from.

March 29: Scott seen in Bogota, Colombia. Teams racing in Bogota. (Leg 13)
March 30: Guatapé leg. (Leg 14)
April 1-2: Potential Cartagena leg (Leg 15?)
April 3: Beau posts an Instagram story at the Cartagena airport.

My guess for this stretch is that we had three Colombia legs as well. Bogota, Guatapé, then Cartagena, filmed over five days. (March 29-April 2) April 3 was a transit day.

April 4: Belize City leg (Leg 16)
April 5: Caye Caulker leg (Leg 17)
April 6: ?, Belize Leg (Leg 18)
April 7: Transit[/i]

To carry over the five-day theory yet again, I'm going to assume that our missing stretch of filming before Caye Caulker to Merida means we had a third Belize leg.

April 8: Teams seen in Merida (Leg 19)
April 9: Second Merida leg (Leg 20)
April 10-11: ? leg (Leg 21)
April 12-13: Transit to Perth

Again, I believe we had a third Mexico leg as we do have another gap. Additionally, I think transit for this took a bit longer because going from Mexico to Perth alone takes more than a day with connections factored in.

April 14: Leg 22 in Perth
April 15: Leg 23 in Fremantle
April 17: Leg 24 in Broome

So there we have it! I could be wrong, but I believe we should be expecting this for this season.

[gamerfan09]

TL;DR of my post above:

Potential TAR Australia 6 Route:
Leg 1: Sydney, Australia → Marrakech, Morocco (10 teams, Group A)
Leg 2: ?, Australia → ?, Morocco (10 teams, Group B)
Leg 3: Chefchaouen, Morocco (18 teams, Merge)
Leg 4: Chefchaouen, Morocco → Athens, Greece
Leg 5: Athens, Greece → Santorini, Greece
Leg 6: ?, Greece
Leg 7: ?, Greece → Konak, Turkey
Leg 8: Konak, Turkey → Alacati, Turkey
Leg 9: Alacati, Turkey → Bornova, Turkey
Leg 10: Bornova, Turkey → ?
Leg 11: ?
Leg 12: ?
Leg 13: ? → Bogota, Colombia
Leg 14: Bogota, Colombia → Guatapé, Colombia
Leg 15: Guatapé, Colombia → Cartagena, Colombia
Leg 16: Cartagena, Colombia → Belize City, Belize
Leg 17: Belize City, Belize → Caye Caulker, Belize
Leg 18: Caye Caulker, Belize → ?, Belize
Leg 19: ?, Belize → Mérida, Mexico
Leg 20: Mérida, Mexico
Leg 21: ?, Mexico
Leg 22: ?, Mexico → Perth, Australia
Leg 23: Perth, Australia → Fremantle, Australia
Leg 24: Fremantle, Australia → Broome, Australia (Finale)

[Parasparopagraho]

^

Correction: "Rabat" should be Marrakech.

[Kiwi Jay]

Did we confirm whether the shot looking down into the courtyard at the Group A teams in Marrakesh, was post-Leg 1?

It's clear you can see Lauren & Steph, Morgan & Lilli, the older FF team (who I no longer believe to be Claire & Jodie), Reem & Crystal, Angel & Francis (bottom of shot with orange beanie), Stuart & Sam, and what I believe to be Nara & Glennon (see the team in the shot attached).

The reason I ask the above question is:
1) The older FF team appear to be reading some sort of additional information? Are we sure this isn't just a HOH and halfway through Leg 1? To further this conversation, isn't there a Moroccan man seen bottom left of shot holding a clue?
2) If this is post-Leg 1, isn't that Nara & Glennon in the shot? Therefore, with 7 teams in that shot including them, and Kathy & Chace and Heath & Toni definitely moving later in the competition, doesn't that mean Sam & Alex were eliminated first? Although we spotted them in Athens didn't we? Colour me confused!

Just something I've been looking at and wondering. If they are reading clues at the start of Leg 2 (Leg 3 actually, given Group B did a leg somewhere) were they filming that before being transported to Chefchaouen for the merge of A & B?

What a complicated season lol!

[I ♥ TAR]

Honestly, everything is pointing out that photo is not from LEG 2 and it was just misunderstanding. Maybe there was overnight stand and photo was taken next day? I also seen Nara & Glennon there... They may be NEL in LEG 1 but what are the odds?

Also why are you thinking older FF team from group A are not Claire and Jodie?

[Kiwi Jay]

Honestly, everything is pointing out that photo is not from LEG 2 and it was just misunderstanding. Maybe there was overnight stand and photo was taken next day? I also seen Nara & Glennon there... They may be NEL in LEG 1 but what are the odds?

Also why are you thinking older FF team from group A are not Claire and Jodie?

I’m also wondering if it was an overnight HOH point. In saying that, the shot that we alleged was Sam and Alex in Athens doesn’t really look exactly like them to be fair. And the only reason we linked it to them was their beanies being the same as in Marrakech at night, so it could be another team. Either Sam and Alex went home and this is indeed the start of the next leg, or they arrived in Marrakech at night, did some night tasks and then got to an HOH and this is only halfway through leg 1.

As for this not being Claire and Jodie - I am going on the video from the start line and the shot looking down into the courtyard where you can see the top of the ladies heads. It just doesn’t look like them in either video or this shot. Hair colour and shape looks different and the women running at the start line don’t look like Claire, or her figure, at all. I’m not a hundred sure, but that’s my speculation based on the spoilers.

[fossil-racer]

In my notes, one of the posters on FB said they saw the pitstop being filmed so I'm pretty sure there wasn't a overnight HOH.

[I ♥ TAR]

Then only option as 1st boot from Group A seems Sam & Alex but who is a team we mistakenly identified as them in Greece?   

[gamerfan09]

Think it's this unknown team from Group B. Peep the green inner part of his jacket.



Also @ everyone, it's HOO (Hours of Operation), not Head of Household