Topic: TAR 33 ORIGINAL PRE-RACE Speculation (dates/cast/routes)

[cerealking]

Singapore is the furthest along on of the high income Asian countries and they've already said they're going to allow vaccinated travelers from certain countries once their caseloads get low enough. It's been a while since they've been their and it has a big airport.

I think we will be waiting a very long time until the US caseload is regarded as low enough. What people in the US currently regard as low most other areas (except maybe the UK or Brazil) see us extremely high still.

The US was one of the countries specifically mentioned as ones they’re going to allow due to high vaccination rates. The US is at about 55% of adults with a first dose and places like Israel’s cases fell through the floor at about 60%. It should be the second big country to hit “herd immunity” after the UK.

[georgiapeach]

I think we are at about 30% of the adult population vaccinated. That is not a quorom by any means.

[theschnauzers]

With politically inspired vaccine hesitancy, it’s going to be hard for the US to reach herd immunity. Private actors in the US have begun to offer incentives to get people to be vaccinated completely. That’s one reason why the USCDC latest guidance for fully vaccinated people still require masks indoors and outdoors if you’re in a group situation with those not in your household. The variants remain an issue, although the issue is with certain variants, not all of them.

[kyleisalive]

Canada is really quickly catching up to the US/UK on vaccinations. I understand why they may not want to go there if they’re able to film by the end of the year because that’d be a lot of rich, English speaking countries but they could always go to Quebec to get a different flair. They’ve only been there in 8 (lol).

This would be a lousy idea (speaking as a Canadian).  The bulk of our population isn't expected to get a second dose of the vaccine until the start of autumn, and that's if we ignore the people who are holding out.  It's not a good time.

[Brannockdevice]

Canada is really quickly catching up to the US/UK on vaccinations. I understand why they may not want to go there if they’re able to film by the end of the year because that’d be a lot of rich, English speaking countries but they could always go to Quebec to get a different flair. They’ve only been there in 8 (lol).

I think two legs in Canada - specifically one in Quebec and one in the far north, ideally Nunavut - could be feasible, but Canada is doing quite poorly on the vaccination front. Only 3% of Canada's population is fully vaccinated, so they are not "quickly catching up" (this is a good source for tracking all of the data https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html).

[cerealking]

Canada is really quickly catching up to the US/UK on vaccinations. I understand why they may not want to go there if they’re able to film by the end of the year because that’d be a lot of rich, English speaking countries but they could always go to Quebec to get a different flair. They’ve only been there in 8 (lol).

This would be a lousy idea (speaking as a Canadian).  The bulk of our population isn't expected to get a second dose of the vaccine until the start of autumn, and that's if we ignore the people who are holding out.  It's not a good time.

Oh yeah, this isn't any time soon. q4 is like the earlier I could see them doing it at this point.

[cerealking]

Now the Australian trade minister is saying it could be the second half of next year before their borders are 100% open.

[Declive]

Sadly i think we'll wait at least 2 years to see this on air. Or even to continue filming...

[H_E_L_L_O]

Depending on when TAR 33 resumes production (hopefully by the end of this year or early next year) I think Tokyo or Beijing, if China hasn't been blacklisted yet, could be apart of the reroute due to TAR's tendency to go to Olympic host cities before or after the games.

[theschnauzers]

I’m one of those who think global conditions concerning the pandemic and international travel won’t permit filming to resume until sometime in 2022.
Even Survivor might not get in the filming of the spring edition (season 42) because of new COVID-19 concerns in Fiji.

[georgiapeach]

Survivor may not get it IN Fiji. But there are other options. TAR is of course a different ballgame. STill TBD.

[ianthebalance]

If there was any chance of Israel for 33 I feel like it’s gone

[cerealking]

I think the question at this point on if they could film late this year is the rich countries in East Asia and Oceania that have stomped out COVID with really strict travel restrictions. Europe and some South American countries at this point will probably be fine by then bc of vaccinations but AUS/NZ/East Asia aren’t vaccinating as fast bc they don’t need to. They’re not gonna do it without them IMO.

[LandonM170]

If there was any chance of Israel for 33 I feel like it’s gone

I mean I am not a part of production however I mean I feel like right now it is 100% off with the protests and everything going on with Israel and Palestine.

[kyleisalive]

If there was any chance of Israel for 33 I feel like it’s gone

I mean I am not a part of production however I mean I feel like right now it is 100% off with the protests and everything going on with Israel and Palestine.

Israel has rarely, if ever been on the table for U.S. TAR due to political conflict.  It's part of why they haven't been back to Egypt since 2003. 

I think the question at this point on if they could film late this year is the rich countries in East Asia and Oceania that have stomped out COVID with really strict travel restrictions. Europe and some South American countries at this point will probably be fine by then bc of vaccinations but AUS/NZ/East Asia aren’t vaccinating as fast bc they don’t need to. They’re not gonna do it without them IMO.

Oceania (chiefly AUS and NZ) aren't expected to open their borders until mid-2022 at the earliest (as per news yesterday).  Despite high vaccination rates in some SA countries, they still have higher-than-normal cases.  60% of Japan doesn't even want the Olympics around because of how far behind they are with vaccinations.

Realistically, this year is not good for a show about international travel.  As much as we want the race, keep in mind that showing a program like the race on TV during a time when people are apprehensive to travel means a humongous risk of plummeting ratings-- the type of ratings that kept the show in the danger zone of cancellation for its first five seasons (after 9/11).  People can be eager-- that's why people are here-- but be realistic.  Jumping the gun is probably worse for the show than waiting for the right time.

Hell, even if they film it and keep it in reserve, then they make the ardent fans unhappy.  Remember last season when they left it waiting for more than a year and a half?  The people who actually follow the show in the off-season were hyper-critical...only to be outwardly vocal about how much they disliked the season when it actually did air.

[theschnauzers]

Apparently Survivor shortened the filming schedule to 29 days, and so, season 42 is being filmed on the same shortened 29 day schedule.

Meanwhile, a major milestone in the US. The US CDC has changed its recommendations and now permits fully vaccinated people to not wear masks, or social distancing whether indoors or outdoors. Again, this applies only to those fully vaccinated.

[ianthebalance]

For when the show eventually comes back (assuming it does), whichever year it is, I'd love if it would be like the start of a new era of TAR  (since there have been some issues needing fixing)

And I knew Israel was slim even before the recent events

[cerealking]

I’d wager they won’t visit countries primarily using the Chinese vaccine(s) either. They seem to be okay at stopping you from developing a severe case which is good but they’re not great at stopping cases period.

[kyleisalive]

I’d wager they won’t visit countries primarily using the Chinese vaccine(s) either. They seem to be okay at stopping you from developing a severe case which is good but they’re not great at stopping cases period.

Virtually all of South America, China, and Southeast Asia.

[zacz]

Taiwan and Singapore are having outbreaks as well after doing so well for so long. Taiwan has a low vaccination rate but in Singapore doesn't and the outbreak is occurring among those who are vaccinated which is extremely concerning.

[georgiapeach]

What it takes to Enter the UK:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/red-amber-and-green-list-rules-for-entering-england

US is an amber country

[cerealking]

Another option I could see them trying to get out of going rich countries only is to work with some of the middle income countries where they go a lot that have handled the pandemic well (mostly Vietnam) and work out a deal as long as everyone on production is vaccinated. Put the local crew up in quarantine hotels or use those who have been vaccinated, do stuff exclusively outside, use N95s, etc. The dollar goes a long way in middle income countries and some may look at it as advertising for travel once things get back to normal. Just a thought.

[Xoruz]

From Kelly Kahl

We hope to get them out as soon as there is a piece of the world that opens up that allows enough legs of travel. It’s literally a day-by-day situation, the team is ready to go and we certainly hope to get a greenlight before the end of the year. We hope to have it for midseason, but that all depends on when they get out.

https://deadline.com/2021/05/cbs-pilot-season-ncis-csi-las-vegas-the-amazing-race-ghosts-1234759899/

[cerealking]

From Kelly Kahl

We hope to get them out as soon as there is a piece of the world that opens up that allows enough legs of travel. It’s literally a day-by-day situation, the team is ready to go and we certainly hope to get a greenlight before the end of the year. We hope to have it for midseason, but that all depends on when they get out.

https://deadline.com/2021/05/cbs-pilot-season-ncis-csi-las-vegas-the-amazing-race-ghosts-1234759899/

Today, the EU member states all agreed to the notion of lifting travel restrictions. If I understand it correctly for now it’s just nationals of a handful of countries. However, vaccinated Americans are next up once they can work out the verification system. Some countries are already doing it. It’s a big step IMO.

[OMGitsGARRET]

Obviously there is still a lot of uncertainties, but with Kelly Kahl's enthusiasm, hopefully they can go out and film 33 before the end of the year and air it in the Spring 2022 season. With a potential February premiere date, it would be exactly around the 2-year mark since the shutdown, so I could easily see CBS leaning into the marketing of presenting it as this big event 2 year's in the making and the promos being like "2-years later" so it makes sense.

My main hope is that after this we just go back to two seasons a year with Spring/Fall editions. Tough as Nails is getting the post-Survivor slot this Fall, so maybe next Spring it'll go to TAR33 instead. Then hopefully from then on we can keep the Wednesday night post-Survivor slot permanently.