Topic: TAR AUS 6 DISCUSSION of the LIVE SPOILERS

[stunami]

I would expect another setting than latin/spanish america for the next few legs.
Cuz that is like 3 countries in a row with Spanish as it's main language (I think for Belize also?)

So maybe Canada or Northeast USA
Would love for them to come to Quebec!

[Xoruz]

^^Might be Plaza Grande in Mérida.

Mariachi task looks to be in Parque de Santa Lucía

So Detour: Mariachi or Mochila?

[Xoruz]

I would expect another setting than latin/spanish america for the next few legs.
Cuz that is like 3 countries in a row with Spanish as it's main language (I think for Belize also?)

So maybe Canada or Northeast USA
Would love for them to come to Quebec!

Belize's main language is English though some people speak Spanish.

[fossil-racer]

So I've been thinking, if the race was 24 legs, we would have 17 eliminations, 6 non-eliminations and a final 3.
If the race was 20 legs, we would have 17 eliminations, 3 non-eliminations and a final 3.
The race has to be at least halfway to finish by the end of the month so how many legs are in each country and how many eliminations have there been.

With that said, here are some possible theories based on number of legs:

A) 24 Legs

I think we are more than halfway if Morocco, Greece, Turkey and Colombia are at least 3 legs each.

Morocco (3), Greece (3), Turkey, (3) Colombia (3), Belize (2), Mexico (1+?)

B) 20 Legs

I think we are more than halfway if we have at least 2 legs in each country.

Morocco (2), Greece (2), Turkey, (2) Colombia (2), Belize (2), Mexico (1+?)

With that said, here are the top 4 possible theories I have based on number of eliminations:

A) Simplest Theory - 15 Legs and 13 Eliminations so far/20 Leg Race
3 legs each in Morocco, Greece and Turkey with 9 eliminations
11 teams in Colombia
3 legs in Colombia and 3 eliminations
Belize 1 is final 8 and non-elimination
Belize 2 is final 8
Mexico 1 is final 7
If Mexico 1 is non-elimination, 5 Legs Left and 4 eliminations left
If Mexico 1 is elimination, 5 Legs Left and 3 eliminations left and 1 non-elimination

B) Complicated Theory - 15 Legs and 12-14 Eliminations so far/20 Leg Race
3 legs each in Morocco, Greece and Turkey with 7-8 eliminations
12-13 teams in Colombia
3 legs in Colombia and 2-3 eliminations
Belize 1 is 9 to 10 teams
Belize 2 is 8 to 9 teams
Mexico 1 is 7 to 8 teams
If Mexico 1 is non-elimination, 5 Legs Left and 4-5 eliminations left  (with a possible non-elimination)
If Mexico 1 is elimination, 5 Legs Left and 3-4 eliminations left (with a possible non-elimination)

C) Complicated Theory 2- 11 Legs and 9 to 11 Eliminations so far/20 Leg Race
2 legs each in Morocco, Greece and Turkey, Colombia with 7-8 eliminations
Belize 1 is 12 to 13 teams
Belize 2 is 11 to 12 teams
Mexico 1 is 10 to 11 teams
If Mexico 1 is non-elimination, 9 Legs Left and 7-8 eliminations left (with a possible non-elimination)
If Mexico 1 is elimination, 9 Legs Left and 6-7 eliminations left (with a possible non-elimination)

D) Complicated Theory 3- 15 Legs and 9 to 11 Eliminations so far/24 Leg Race
3 legs each in Morocco, Greece and Turkey, Colombia with 7-8 eliminations
Belize 1 is 12 to 13 teams
Belize 2 is 11 to 12 teams
Mexico 1 is 10 to 11 teams
If Mexico 1 is non-elimination, 9 Legs Left and 7-8 eliminations left (with a possible non-elimination)
If Mexico 1 is elimination, 9 Legs Left and 6-7 eliminations left (with a possible non-elimination)


Now there are other theories, like if some countries are 2 legs instead of 3 (or vice versa), but I'm thinking we have about 20 legs and they are going to wrap up soon to finish before the end of the month.

The only way I see a 24 leg race is if the first 4 countries have 3 legs each or 3 countries have 3 legs each. Even then, we would be around 13 to 14 legs and have 10 to 11 to go.

[Xoruz]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CcJADjfO6T8/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

Team #9 sighted. Looks like a Roadblock.

From the second photo, looks like they have to count the number of papel picado of a certain color like TARAU 3's umbrella Detour.

[H_E_L_L_O]

So maybe Canada or Northeast USA
Would love for them to come to Quebec!

I highly doubt they’ll go the northeastern part of North America, if anything they’ll likely favor the western US and/or Canada.

[Maanca]

Unless they want a cold-weather leg. Pretty much the whole route's been southerly places.

[ovalorange]

With that said, here are some possible theories based on number of legs:

A) 24 Legs

I think we are more than halfway if Morocco, Greece, Turkey and Colombia are at least 3 legs each.

Morocco (3), Greece (3), Turkey, (3) Colombia (3), Belize (2), Mexico (1+?)

B) 20 Legs

I think we are more than halfway if we have at least 2 legs in each country.

Morocco (2), Greece (2), Turkey, (2) Colombia (2), Belize (2), Mexico (1+?)

I think we might only have one Greece leg. I'm leaning more to it being merged with Turkey for "Mediterranean Week" or whatever.

We've got a significant gap between Turkey and Colombia so I think we missed a set of legs there. Should still be on track with the amount of legs you've got here though. 

Merida being two legs throws out of whack the theory of 3 sets of legs per week as we've already got two Belize legs. Not sure what to make of it yet.

[Parasparopagraho]

If that many teams are still racing, then there might be time to visit both the States as well as Canada while still fitting in the likes of New Zealand for the penultimate leg(s)/week.

[I ♥ TAR]

Yeah, there are lot of legs remaining to be raced. I hope they will jump to Asia from Mexico. It should not be problem via connection in US I believe.

[BritishTARFan]

Yeah, there are lot of legs remaining to be raced. I hope they will jump to Asia from Mexico. It should not be problem via connection in US I believe.

Barely any asian countries are open to tourists

[fossil-racer]

Yeah, there are lot of legs remaining to be raced. I hope they will jump to Asia from Mexico. It should not be problem via connection in US I believe.

Barely any asian countries are open to tourists

As of April 2022 these countries are open to visitors without compulsory quarantine: Cambodia, Fiji, French Polynesia, India, Laos, The Maldives, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and The United Arab Emirates.

[Parasparopagraho]

Sources?

[fossil-racer]

Sources?

https://www.tiket2.com/pandemic/unlocking-asia-pacific-travel-countries-reopened-for-tourists-now/

[Parasparopagraho]

Less than official compared to .gov sites, but sure.

[strawberryblonde]

Final 3 prediction:
- Team 6: purple ladies
- Team 9: Francis and Angel
- Team 11: Mori and Paki

[fossil-racer]

Final 3 prediction:
- Team 6: purple ladies
- Team 9: Francis and Angel
- Team 11: Mori and Paki

Francis/Angel, Mori and Pako, and Red FF is my prediction

[I ♥ TAR]

Do we have an SM activity evidence (posting or following other teams) which can confirm already eliminated teams? I was looking for the Instagram accounts of the newly identified teams but unfortunately it looks like almost all of them are private.

[fossil-racer]

Do we have an SM activity evidence (posting or following other teams) which can confirm already eliminated teams? I was looking for the Instagram accounts of the newly identified teams but unfortunately it looks like almost all of them are private.

There is if you do look closely. There is an MF team and FF team that is for sure eliminated.

[I ♥ TAR]

Do we have an SM activity evidence (posting or following other teams) which can confirm already eliminated teams? I was looking for the Instagram accounts of the newly identified teams but unfortunately it looks like almost all of them are private.

There is if you do look closely. There is an MF team and FF team that is for sure eliminated.

blondes and Francis & Angel?

[stunami]

Looking at the timeline, there is a huge gab between Turkey and Greece.
Sure there was the covid drama in there but I'm sure we are missing a leg in Greece somewhere
I'm expecting 2 or 3 legs per country.

Also, I would guess we are missing a country between Turkey and Colombia, probably somewhere in Europe?
Or we have direct flights from Colombia to Turkey?

[Parasparopagraho]

They could've gone to "comparatively less touristy than Istanbul" places such as Ankara and/or Cappadocia a la Race Across the World 1 and TAR China, respectively.

[Maanca]

If we can't find team #20, maybe they were from the other starting line and first eliminated.

[stunami]

If we can't find team #20, maybe they were from the other starting line and first eliminated.

And to make the number of teams 'fit', would it be possible to have a starting line elimination?
This way, within the first two episodes, we go from 20 to 16, then the merge?
(One team out at starting task and one at the end of the leg in Morocco?)

[gamerfan09]

If we can't find team #20, maybe they were from the other starting line and first eliminated.

And to make the number of teams 'fit', would it be possible to have a starting line elimination?
This way, within the first two episodes, we go from 20 to 16, then the merge?
(One team out at starting task and one at the end of the leg in Morocco?)

At the moment we're able to account all 9 teams on Group A surviving the first leg at the very least. Only the M/M team in black was not seen after.