Archive > The Amazing Race 18 Spoilers and Speculation
TAR 18 - CAST/Locations: Bitch and Moan and Squeal here! lol
florida:
Even though I'm sad that Jamie/Cara are possibly gone, and there are still three teams I do not like at all and could stand to see them eliminated...back-to-back...I still feel it'll be a great season, even it's just by the locations.
Mandoli:
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 01:15:54 PM ---
--- Quote from: Mandoli on November 29, 2010, 12:31:47 PM ---
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 11:50:38 AM ---
--- Quote from: Dånooky on November 29, 2010, 11:35:40 AM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 11:31:13 AM ---
--- Quote from: graytex on November 29, 2010, 11:23:22 AM ---Looks like the first 3 eliminations are all TAR14 alumni. So much for having 5 teams from that season!
--- End quote ---
This can mostly b contributed 2 probability.
--- End quote ---
Sorry to tell you that you fell into a fallacy, because the probability for three consecutive S14 teams to be eliminated is close to 6%.
--- End quote ---
True, but the first three eliminations of a S14 team had probabilities of 45.5%, 40% and 33%. That's still pretty high odds if you are in Vegas...
--- End quote ---
It's better odds, so you know you're not going to get a huge payday from it. It's like horse racing - you pick the underdog and the underdog wins, you're getting a fortune. You play it safe by picking the horse that has the best odds to win and it wins? You don't get as much.
--- End quote ---
I was just making an offhand comment.
--- End quote ---
I'm a master at commenting to offhand comments. :P
Prophet:
--- Quote from: Mandoli on November 29, 2010, 03:48:49 PM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 01:15:54 PM ---
I was just making an offhand comment.
--- End quote ---
I'm a master at commenting to offhand comments. :P
--- End quote ---
Haha, me too. :lol: I guess that's what this thread is for.
guacamole300:
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 11:50:38 AM ---
--- Quote from: Dånooky on November 29, 2010, 11:35:40 AM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 11:31:13 AM ---
--- Quote from: graytex on November 29, 2010, 11:23:22 AM ---Looks like the first 3 eliminations are all TAR14 alumni. So much for having 5 teams from that season!
--- End quote ---
This can mostly b contributed 2 probability.
--- End quote ---
Sorry to tell you that you fell into a fallacy, because the probability for three consecutive S14 teams to be eliminated is close to 6%.
--- End quote ---
True, but the first three eliminations of a S14 team had probabilities of 45.5%, 40% and 33%. That's still pretty high odds if you are in Vegas...
--- End quote ---
yeah, but those are individual probablities, you have to multiply each of those, so it really is 6%, because what is being said is that three consecutive S14 teams being eliminated, based on probability, is very low
DrRox:
--- Quote from: guacamole300 on November 29, 2010, 06:14:49 PM ---
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 11:50:38 AM ---
--- Quote from: Dånooky on November 29, 2010, 11:35:40 AM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 11:31:13 AM ---
--- Quote from: graytex on November 29, 2010, 11:23:22 AM ---Looks like the first 3 eliminations are all TAR14 alumni. So much for having 5 teams from that season!
--- End quote ---
This can mostly b contributed 2 probability.
--- End quote ---
Sorry to tell you that you fell into a fallacy, because the probability for three consecutive S14 teams to be eliminated is close to 6%.
--- End quote ---
True, but the first three eliminations of a S14 team had probabilities of 45.5%, 40% and 33%. That's still pretty high odds if you are in Vegas...
--- End quote ---
yeah, but those are individual probablities, you have to multiply each of those, so it really is 6%, because what is being said is that three consecutive S14 teams being eliminated, based on probability, is very low
--- End quote ---
So would that be 11! - 3! = ?? Never mind.....I already got a headache just thinking about it.
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