Archive > The Amazing Race 18 Spoilers and Speculation
TAR 18 - CAST/Locations: Bitch and Moan and Squeal here! lol
USsoccer:
--- Quote from: guacamole300 on November 29, 2010, 06:14:49 PM ---
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 11:50:38 AM ---
--- Quote from: Dånooky on November 29, 2010, 11:35:40 AM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 11:31:13 AM ---
--- Quote from: graytex on November 29, 2010, 11:23:22 AM ---Looks like the first 3 eliminations are all TAR14 alumni. So much for having 5 teams from that season!
--- End quote ---
This can mostly b contributed 2 probability.
--- End quote ---
Sorry to tell you that you fell into a fallacy, because the probability for three consecutive S14 teams to be eliminated is close to 6%.
--- End quote ---
True, but the first three eliminations of a S14 team had probabilities of 45.5%, 40% and 33%. That's still pretty high odds if you are in Vegas...
--- End quote ---
yeah, but those are individual probablities, you have to multiply each of those, so it really is 6%, because what is being said is that three consecutive S14 teams being eliminated, based on probability, is very low
--- End quote ---
I really don't want to sound like a smart ass. You are correct, and that was the original topic..., but I just thought I throw a perspective in there... The 6% is correct, and that is a very low number, but it is still a lot higher than any other possible combination of 3 consecutive teams... So with each S14 team eliminated (up until 3) the possibility of another S14 team going out next is still higher than a team from any other season, because there are still more teams of S14 left. In comparison, the odds of one team from each S12, S16 and S17 going out in order is 0.1%. Sorry, I am just really bored with no sightings right now... and I like math!
Dånooky:
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 06:31:40 PM ---
--- Quote from: guacamole300 on November 29, 2010, 06:14:49 PM ---
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 11:50:38 AM ---
--- Quote from: Dånooky on November 29, 2010, 11:35:40 AM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 11:31:13 AM ---
--- Quote from: graytex on November 29, 2010, 11:23:22 AM ---Looks like the first 3 eliminations are all TAR14 alumni. So much for having 5 teams from that season!
--- End quote ---
This can mostly b contributed 2 probability.
--- End quote ---
Sorry to tell you that you fell into a fallacy, because the probability for three consecutive S14 teams to be eliminated is close to 6%.
--- End quote ---
True, but the first three eliminations of a S14 team had probabilities of 45.5%, 40% and 33%. That's still pretty high odds if you are in Vegas...
--- End quote ---
yeah, but those are individual probablities, you have to multiply each of those, so it really is 6%, because what is being said is that three consecutive S14 teams being eliminated, based on probability, is very low
--- End quote ---
I really don't want to sound like a smart ass. You are correct, and that was the original topic..., but I just thought I throw a perspective in there... The 6% is correct, and that is a very low number, but it is still a lot higher than any other possible combination of 3 consecutive teams... So with each S14 team eliminated (up until 3) the possibility of another S14 team going out next is still higher than a team from any other season, because there are still more teams of S14 left. In comparison, the odds of one team from each S12, S16 and S17 going out in order is 0.1%. Sorry, I am just really bored with no sightings right now... and I like math!
--- End quote ---
The probability of the three first consecutive teams eliminated not being from season 14 (without repeating seasons and in any order) is 0.8% while the probability allowing repetitions from the same season is 12.1%, the double of the probability of it being 3 S14 teams in a row.
USsoccer:
--- Quote from: Dånooky on November 29, 2010, 06:53:37 PM ---
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 06:31:40 PM ---
--- Quote from: guacamole300 on November 29, 2010, 06:14:49 PM ---
--- Quote from: USsoccer on November 29, 2010, 11:50:38 AM ---
--- Quote from: Dånooky on November 29, 2010, 11:35:40 AM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 29, 2010, 11:31:13 AM ---
--- Quote from: graytex on November 29, 2010, 11:23:22 AM ---Looks like the first 3 eliminations are all TAR14 alumni. So much for having 5 teams from that season!
--- End quote ---
This can mostly b contributed 2 probability.
--- End quote ---
Sorry to tell you that you fell into a fallacy, because the probability for three consecutive S14 teams to be eliminated is close to 6%.
--- End quote ---
True, but the first three eliminations of a S14 team had probabilities of 45.5%, 40% and 33%. That's still pretty high odds if you are in Vegas...
--- End quote ---
yeah, but those are individual probablities, you have to multiply each of those, so it really is 6%, because what is being said is that three consecutive S14 teams being eliminated, based on probability, is very low
--- End quote ---
I really don't want to sound like a smart ass. You are correct, and that was the original topic..., but I just thought I throw a perspective in there... The 6% is correct, and that is a very low number, but it is still a lot higher than any other possible combination of 3 consecutive teams... So with each S14 team eliminated (up until 3) the possibility of another S14 team going out next is still higher than a team from any other season, because there are still more teams of S14 left. In comparison, the odds of one team from each S12, S16 and S17 going out in order is 0.1%. Sorry, I am just really bored with no sightings right now... and I like math!
--- End quote ---
The probability of the three first consecutive teams eliminated not being from season 14 (without repeating seasons and in any order) is 0.8% while the probability allowing repetitions from the same season is 12.1%, the double of the probability of it being 3 S14 teams in a row.
--- End quote ---
Right. I didn't write this part right... "lot higher than any other possible combination of 3 consecutive teams." I meant particular teams. Of course there is a higher probability of a non S14 team going out each leg... But as long as the gingers are out I don't really care.... lol!
Jobby:
Can FT and BE be eliminated next? :res:
AmazingRace:
--- Quote from: Joab on November 30, 2010, 08:10:50 AM ---Can FT and BE be eliminated next? :res:
--- End quote ---
:hfive: Me too!
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