Analysis of 16 Castaways Following Episode 4:
Jeff Varner (Angkor Tribe, original Ta Keo)
Jeff's tenuous position within his tribe was threatened even further when he sustained an injury during the challenge. The vote which eliminated him was strictly based upon his remaining tribemates desire to not to lose the next immunity challenge. It also follows the trend of eliminating contestants who have demonstrated a propensity for scheming too much early on. Jeff probably deserved a better fate, but he was on an underdog tribe since Day 1 and suffered from the numbers. Certainly there were castaways on other tribes that deserved to be eliminated before him. His argument at tribal council for eliminating Woo because of his dominance at individual immunity challenges was a weak one, as that stage of the competition is still between four and six eliminations away, not to mention how forming an alliance with Woo might help to eliminate other strong physical competitors on the other tribes (e.g. Joe, Terry).
Tasha Fox (Angkor Tribe, original Bayon)
Tasha's leadership and willingness to patiently work with her tribemates continues to impress me. She has proper mentality at this stage of the competition -- to keep the tribe mentally and physically strong and to work with everyone, rather than create and exploit fractures due to personal differences. She is wisely collecting information on relationships among other original Ta Keo members, which further persuades me to suspect that the 10 original Bayon members could all be in the final 10.
Abi-Maria Gomes (Angkor Tribe, original Ta Keo)
Abi-Maria continues to be a pivotal player. She recognized how Jeff's loyalty is irrelevant if he is not on the jury, and the only way she makes it to the jury stage is if the tribe can avoid further elimination. Furthermore, unlike anyone else on the original Ta Keo tribe, she has shown a willingness to work and be completely out in the open with original Bayon tribe members, and all three remaining members of the Angkor tribe owe her a debt of gratitude for her role in keeping them in the game, because they would not be there if not for her bold moves (Tasha and Savage in the Peih-Gee elimination and Woo in the Jeff elimination).
Woo Hwang (Angkor Tribe, original Ta Keo)
Like Spencer on the new Bayon tribe, Woo's words at tribal council seem insincere. It is rather obvious that he would be willing to eliminate all three of his current tribemates and form alliances with members of other tribes as soon as possible. Like Jeff Varner, Woo was unlucky in how the tribes broke down since Day 1. His only hope for going far is to avoid tribal council until all tribes merge.
Andrew Savage (Angkor Tribe, original Bayon)
Andrew won a lot of good will by winning the first reward-only challenge of the season. He and Tasha are proving to be a powerful combination, which will allow him to move further in the game than some of the other physically strong men. Hopefully he can continue to tolerate Abi-Maria as well as Tasha does, because if he can take the fatherly role toward her the way Jeff Varner did, then his tribe might finally be united and perform well enough to avoid losing immunity challenges.
Spencer Bledsoe (Bayon Tribe, original Ta Keo)
As I suspected, Spencer's appearance of genuine personal interest in his tribemates was undone by his over-plotting nature displayed in his conversation with Monica. It is clear that he is the least trustworthy of any castaway remaining in the game and is the easiest vote to make on his current tribe. Spencer has not learned his lesson and the only way he makes the jury is if his tribe avoids tribal council. There might come a point when both remaining six-person tribes might be forced to go to tribal council absent any challenge. If that is the case, Spencer is a goner.
Jeremy Collins (Bayon Tribe, original Bayon)
Jeremy was able to look at the Hidden Immunity Idol for the first time. He remains in a strong position, as the other men in his tribe are clearer targets, and from the preview scenes from the next episode, there appears to be in-fighting among the women in his tribe. So he potentially possesses the all-powerful swing vote.
Stephen Fishbach (Bayon Tribe, original Bayon)
Again like Spencer, Fishbach will try his best to form social bonds with his tribemates. His ulterior motives may not be as apparent to his tribemates as Spencer's. Nonetheless, he must show a willingness to work with personalities he might not enjoy, such as Kimmi's and Monica's. The preview scenes from the next episode seemed to suggest in-fighting amongst the women of his tribe, so that might keep the heat off him for a while.
Kimmi Kappenberg (Bayon Tribe, original Bayon)
Kimmi continued to fly under the radar. As I noted elsewhere, the preview scenes from the next episode seemed to suggest in-fighting amongst the women of this tribe. Perhaps Kimmi's temper finally got the better of her. She needs to work well with all members of this tribe if she wants to last longer than the strong women of the new Ta Keo tribe (Kass, Ciera, Wentworth).
Monica Padilla (Bayon Tribe, original Bayon)
Monica remains an X-factor. She is beginning to plot against Spencer, which leads me to believe that she has plans to eliminate others on her tribe. As I noted elsewhere, the preview scenes from the next episode seemed to suggest in-fighting amongst the women of this tribe. Monica cannot alienate too many people on her current tribe if she has any hope of lasting longer than the strong women of the new Ta Keo tribe (Kass, Ciera, Wentworth).
Kelly Wiglesworth (Bayon Tribe, original Ta Keo)
Wigglesworth is in trouble if the other women of her tribe feel like they need to keep around men capable of winning challenges longer than her. She was very unlucky with how the tribes broke down, because the other personalities on that tribe appear to be difficult to manipulate into currying favor for her. Much lick Woo on the Angkor tribe, she will need to avoid tribal council until the tribes merge in order to make the jury.
Joe Anglim (Ta Keo Tribe, original Bayon)
There is not much to say about Joe other than he is definitely in a great position within a strong tribe. He will not be targeted as heavily as Terry Deitz, which is even more apparent since Deitz took the lead on the reward challenge. He will have to continually maintain a numerical advantage in his sub-alliances, which he currently has but may lose when the tribes merge.
Terry Deitz (Ta Keo Tribe, original Ta Keo)
Like Savage on the Angkor tribe, and whether he likes it or not, Terry has taken the mantle of the physical challenge leader of the tribe. He might need to continue his string of success in the immunity challenges, as he remains on the outside of a strong alliance of four original Bayon tribe members. Even if he infiltrates that group, he must oppose original Ta Keo tribemate Kelley Wentworth, who has the hidden immunity idol.
Ciera Eastin (Ta Keo Tribe, original Bayon)
Ciera bowed out of the immunity challenge. She had better not do that often, as she will lose respect from the jury at the final tribal council if she does not compete in challenges. Those who competed in the most recent grueling challenge earned a badge of honor. Ciera's only weakness in the game is her performance in challenges. If she can impress at some point, she has as even a chance as anyone to win the title of Sole Survivor.
Kass McQuillen (Ta Keo Tribe, original Bayon)
To a certain extent like Abi-Maria, Kass is showing the audience that she is keenly aware of perceptions of her and is willing to be gentler to her tribemates. It helps that she is on a strong tribe of apparently nice people. Like Ciera, she can go far if she maintains those positive perceptions of her.
Keith Nale (Ta Keo Tribe, original Bayon)
Keith's position remains unchanged, although in the core alliance of original Bayon tribe members in this tribe, he would appear to be at the bottom. He should be willing to turn on this at the right time, which probably will come later rather than sooner.
Kelley Wentworth (Ta Keo Tribe, original Ta Keo)
Based upon the preview scenes for next week's episode, it appears that there is now a core group of five that have declared themselves the final five. It will be interesting if Wentworth is a part of this group and how she can manage to maintain power among them. Regardless, declaring a final group of five when there are still five or more remaining contestants is a dangerous move, since, when discovered, those people are immediately targeted and have a united front great than five who can outvote the five.
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