Topic: EP4:10/19 "I Wonder If They Like Blondes in New Zealand?"

[apskip]

Phil on Boonie Hunt said that after 10 hours of waiting at the pitstop that his dad wanted to put a jacket on etc, so with that we know it was a very long wait for Phil and dad for teams or a team.

I just walked in the door so will let you all know what other goodies Phil had to say later.

This piece is information helps determine what didn't happen. Flights in to Auckland from Santiago or Buenos Aires arrive only in the early morning(between about 4am and 5am). A wide pitstop time range that is less than 24 hours means that all teams must have reached Auckland on the morning of Saturday May 2. Once there, it is clear that something bad happens to at least one team so that they finish well after the others. The total gap from first to last was not necessarily 10 hours(Phil and his dad could have had to start from the nearby Coromandel Peninsula where Phil lives once there were reports of teams nearing the Tauranga area but they would err on the side of being early to arrive for the piststop festivities), but it must have been pretty large.

[Slowhatch]

Let me throw a few more cents  into the gap issue. Phil's exact words from the insider video:
I've got a little separation between...when the teams get here and when I have to get ahead of them so...
For the record, he's at the BurgerFuel at 114 Ponsonby road (compare the cap with this photo). It's not really close to any location or task except the SkyTower. The shadows are indistinct and if there was a watch or clock in the video, I must have missed it.

[Kiwi Jay]

Been scouting 

Met a man at Kiwi360 called Phillip, a.k.a Phill. Said he heard about the race heading to Te Puke. Saw Terence and Sarah from what I believe. Task was to squash Kiwifruit which went into a container.  . The Pitstop is overlooking Mt. Maunganui!! The sign says Mt. Maunganui, NZ. Angry at the fact that I didnt see any of them!! Life goes on. And lastly...roughly 2 hrs to get from Aukland International to Gulf Harbour up north

I CANNOT WAIT FOR TOMORROW. THEY COME TO MY HOMETOWN YAY 

[Chateau d If]

I don't know if this will help but

This shot was taken here between 4:05 and 4:45 pm (assumes May 2nd).

[apskip]

Chateau, that is very interesting. However, it may not have been done on the day of the race. My forecast has the New Zealand portion of the leg ending before noon for the leading teams but lasting until 7pm for the lagging teams. Phil would not have had time for a miod-afternoon snack.  The burger visit (which was with his father) was in Auckland and probably the day before. Phil did not have to depart on April 30 from Santiago with the teams. He could have hustled to LaPaz airport after the morning pitstop checkins were complete and caught LAN965 LPB SCL 1245 1745 and gone trans-South Pacific on the night of April 29 arriving early morning on May 1.

[beau_30]

Im not sure if this is a reference or of some sort. But I've been keeping track of the contestants and when they have been eliminated.

If the couple that spotted the Blondes in Oregon, they make it to the final 6.

From past history, It seems that the 6th, 5th and 4th team to be eliminated are usually the detour teams.

From watching the squesterville the first 6 teams to be eliminated hit squesterville, while the others call, since they started it Since TARAS.

We know that Terrance and Sarah check in at the mat in Moscow, which means they could be either final 3 or final 4 being eliminated.

There was also sightings of Andrew & Dan in oregon. Which means they either make final 3 or final 6.

Now since is there is no sightings of Ken & Tina this leg they could be the eliminated team.

Here is how I came up with this.

There are 8 teams left..
We know that Toni & Dallas, Aja & Ty, Kelly & Christy, Nick & Starr, Andrew & Dan make it to Leg 5 from the pics.

Which leaves open to Marissa & Brooke, Ken & Tina and Terrance & Sarah.

We know that Terrance & Sarah check in to a pitstop in moscow from the video.

Which leaves Marrisa & Brooke and Ken & Tina being the last team to arrive.

If Aja & Ty take the Fast Foward, that leaves Ken & Tina to be eliminated if the source of Marissa & Brooke in Oregon.

The only other option that this could happen is if this is the first Non-Elimination leg.

We have no sightings of either of the two teams in future episode, the only possible reliable source is what the couple saw in oregon that seems to me that Marrissa & Brooke make Final 6.

Which leaves Ken & Tina to be eliminated or Aja & Ty on a Non-elimination leg.

Any thoughts?

[apskip]

beau_30, I have one right off the top. In AR11 the villa in Acapulco only took 5 teams. Since it is the same sequestervile including the same villa (Casa Legouia which I attempted to find information on but failed), it is logical to assume that its capacity has not increased. There will be the same number of teams(5) there, not 6 teams. It should be remembered that the fourth and fifth teams are goig to have to cross the Pacific Ocean to reach Elimination Station. In AR11, the first four teams were eliminated in South America and the fifth (Ian/Teri) had to fly a much shorter distance across the Atlantic Ocean. I think there is a possibility that teams in epsiodes 4, 5 and 6 might go somewhere other than Acapulco that was near Portland OR rather than all the way down to Acapulco.

EDITOR's NOTE - please note the rather significant alterations.

[Neobie]

Doesn't add much to the discussion, but makes you go hmm?

[michael]

beau_30, I have one right off the top. In AR11 the villa in Acapulco only took 5 teams. Since it is the same sequestervile including the same villa (Casa Legouia which I attempted to find information on but failed), it is logical to assume that its capacity has not increased. There will be the same number of teams(5) there, not 6 teams. It should be remembered that the fourth and fifth teams are goig to have to cross the Pacific Ocean to reach Elimination Station. In AR11, the first four teams were eliminated in South America and the fifth (Ian/Teri) had to fly a much shorter distance across the Atlantic Ocean. I think there is a possibility that teams in epsiodes 4, 5 and 6 might go somewhere other than Acapulco that was near Portland OR rather than all the way down to Acapulco.

EDITOR's NOTE - please note the rather significant alterations.

isn't it common knowledge that the teams 6-4 just travel with production until the final city?  --unless I made that up

[DrAw]

Im not sure if this is a reference or of some sort. But I've been keeping track of the contestants and when they have been eliminated.

If the couple that spotted the Blondes in Oregon, they make it to the final 6.

From past history, It seems that the 6th, 5th and 4th team to be eliminated are usually the detour teams.

From watching the squesterville the first 6 teams to be eliminated hit squesterville, while the others call, since they started it Since TARAS.

We know that Terrance and Sarah check in at the mat in Moscow, which means they could be either final 3 or final 4 being eliminated.

There was also sightings of Andrew & Dan in oregon. Which means they either make final 3 or final 6.

Now since is there is no sightings of Ken & Tina this leg they could be the eliminated team.

Here is how I came up with this.

There are 8 teams left..
We know that Toni & Dallas, Aja & Ty, Kelly & Christy, Nick & Starr, Andrew & Dan make it to Leg 5 from the pics.

Which leaves open to Marissa & Brooke, Ken & Tina and Terrance & Sarah.

We know that Terrance & Sarah check in to a pitstop in moscow from the video.

Which leaves Marrisa & Brooke and Ken & Tina being the last team to arrive.

If Aja & Ty take the Fast Foward, that leaves Ken & Tina to be eliminated if the source of Marissa & Brooke in Oregon.

The only other option that this could happen is if this is the first Non-Elimination leg.

We have no sightings of either of the two teams in future episode, the only possible reliable source is what the couple saw in oregon that seems to me that Marrissa & Brooke make Final 6.

Which leaves Ken & Tina to be eliminated or Aja & Ty on a Non-elimination leg.

Any thoughts?

Umm  the video evidence in Russia is Nick & Starr at the pitstop, and Ken & Tina were supposedly spotted in the leg before Russia if i am correct. Just look at the spoilers thread, its all there. I do agree that in order for Marissa & Brooke to be decoys, they would hv to be in the final 6, though. So i agree with the non-elimination idea here.

[Kiwi Jay]

Taken a look at Google Map.

Mt Eden has the rock wall that Kelly and Christy stand by. The spit seen in the Kelly and Christy roadblock photo is definitely Devonport and the mountain volcano beside it is definitely Rangitoto Island. My father believes that it probably is One Tree Hill because of the rock wall but is confused by the angle. Could be wrong though! Could be Mt Eden though probably not since there isnt a rock wall and even Mt Albert too!

I know peach stated this but I am backing it up

2 hours is roughly guys unsure how true that is!

I was overlooking Papamoa Hills and it does look the same as the pitstop shot. I am not making any promises because I dont want to let anybody down.

And stomping grapes is done all the time in NZ. Not stomping Kiwifruit, so I am looking forward to that!!!

Kiwi

[Chateau d If]

The burger visit (which was with his father) was in Auckland and probably the day before.

Apskip, in general, the assumed date that I use is just for astronomical purposes.  It only needs to be within two or three days to make few minutes difference in the shadow positions.  So the exact date I use really does not matter for the level of (or lack of) precision that I come up with in my time estimates. 

But now that you have opened the date question, let's look at that.  As Slowhatch noted, Phil's exact words are

"I've got a little separation between...when the teams get here and when I have to get ahead of them so..."

That says to me that Phil is talking about the time between when teams get to the place where he is and the time when he has to leave to get ahead of them.  The place where he is:  'here' in his delivery, probably means New Zealand in general but, in all accuracy, we know that he means the Pit Stop location in particular.  And by 'when I have to get ahead of them' he is referring to his need to be at the next Pit Stop location after New Zealand.

With those equivalences in mind I can rewrite what Phil says as:

"I've got a little separation between the time when the teams get to the New Zealand Pit Stop and when I have to leave for the next Pit Stop so..."

It makes it clear that he is talking about the block of time that starts when the last of the Teams have checked in to the New Zealand Pit Stop and ends when he has to leave in order to catch his flight sequence to the next Pit Stop location.  We know that the Teams must check into the New Zealand Pit Stop on May 2nd.  We do not know when they check in.  Where is the proof that the last team checks in at 7:00 pm?  Lacking anything solid on last team check in times I would say that Phil's clip very well could have been taken on May 2nd.  The next day, May 3rd, would also be consistent with the time time block defined by Phil's statement.  However, there is piece of strong evidence in Matt's photo collection that make it impossible for the clip to have been made on May 3rd.  Matt took pictures of Phil in the very early (near sunrise) hours of May 4th while Phil was in a boat in the floating village near Siem Reap.  And, from my own flight figuring a few months ago I learned that the best flight sequence from Auckland to Siem Reap on May 3rd left at 4:55 pm and arrived at 7:05 am on the 4th.  That best possible flight sequence would not get Phil to the standup in time.

So I think Phil had to have taken an earlier flight sequence than May 3rd 4:55 pm.  He may even have made the flight on the evening of the 2nd right after finishing the Bastard Burger.

Bottom line is that, I predict that, this timestamp of 4:05 to 4:45 pm will provide the clue that all Teams have checked in well ahead of 4 pm on May 2nd.

Phil did not have to depart on April 30 from Santiago with the teams. He could have hustled to LaPaz airport after the morning pitstop checkins were complete and caught LAN965 LPB SCL 1245 1745 and gone trans-South Pacific on the night of April 29 arriving early morning on May 1.

No need to speculate on this because we already have a spoiler witness telling us Phil was waiting for his flight on April 29th at VVI.

[michael]

I don't think Marisa and Brooke have to be eliminated after final 6 to be decoys. The teams are flown in from sequester before the date of the finale obviously, and maybe the production thought that since they stood out so much (being blond and all) they would catch the most attention?  So they got sent on a decoy run instead of sitting in a hotel waiting for the morning of the finish line.

[Belle Book]

Casting my vote that it's Ken and Tina who do the FF... and why would the girls be a whole day behind?  They're not leaving Bolivia that much behind everyone else...

I can guess a combination of two situations.  Let's say that they get on a particular flight and something delays the flight so that they fall behind.  And then, if the spoiler indicating that a team misses a bus is any indication, maybe they're the team that misses a bus and they fall so far behind that they get eliminated (and are totally humiliated in front of Phil's dad in the process, poor women).

Belle Book

[apskip]

beau_30, I have one right off the top. In AR11 the villa in Acapulco only took 5 teams. Since it is the same sequestervile including the same villa (Casa Legouia which I attempted to find information on but failed), it is logical to assume that its capacity has not increased. There will be the same number of teams(5) there, not 6 teams. It should be remembered that the fourth and fifth teams are goig to have to cross the Pacific Ocean to reach Elimination Station. In AR11, the first four teams were eliminated in South America and the fifth (Ian/Teri) had to fly a much shorter distance across the Atlantic Ocean. I think there is a possibility that teams in episodes 4, 5 and 6 might go somewhere other than Acapulco that was near Portland OR rather than all the way down to Acapulco.

EDITOR's NOTE - please note the rather significant alterations.

isn't it common knowledge that the teams 6-4 just travel with production until the final city?  --unless I made that up

No, Michael what is tradition is that the "middle set"(eliminated episodes 4, 5, 6, 7 and of teams are split into two groups. One group goes to a sequester and is not typically used as decoys. The other group, usually the ones eliminated in ep. 6, 7 and 8, does traditionally travel with the teams up until one day before the finish and would be more readily available for decoy work. Your teams 4-6 would equate roughly to the teams eliminated in episodes 6, 7 and 8. You are talking apples (final finish order) and I am talking oranges. My point was that those eliminated in episodes 4, 5 and maybe 6 might be sent somewhere on the eastern end of the Pacific Ocean. That still leaves up to 2 teams for decoy work.

[michael]

but we know that Marisa and Brooke are not in final 6, and stacey (the source) saw two BLONDES running around downtown....how do you explain that?

[apskip]

Chateau, you have overlooked an important piece of evidence. That is my reporting of information collected from first-hand sources at Auckland International Airport stating:

Phil Keoghan flew out in the early hours of the next day (possibly 3rd  of May) - 5am ish.

So if we believe that and obviously I do, it sure does point to your "timestamp" applying to May 1 at 405pm to 455pm(since the adjustment between May 2 and May 1 in your system is very small).

If Phil went through SantaCruz on April 29 (which is what the evidence indicates), he would have to get on either:

LAN967 1035 1625 to Santiago  for LAN801 (SCL AKL 2245 0355+2) OR

5L210 1015 1500 to Buenos Aires for AR2801 (EZE AKL 2355 0500+2)

If he did not get to Santa Cruz in time to get on one of those, then there are no other options that I am aware of.

[apskip]

Phil on Boonie Hunt said that after 10 hours of waiting at the pitstop that his dad wanted to put a jacket on etc, so with that we know it was a very long wait for Phil and dad for teams or a team.

I just walked in the door so will let you all know what other goodies Phil had to say later.

This piece is information helps determine what didn't happen. Flights in to Auckland from Santiago or Buenos Aires arrive only in the early morning(between about 4am and 5am). A wide pitstop time range that is less than 24 hours means that all teams must have reached Auckland on the morning of Saturday May 2. Once there, it is clear that something bad happens to at least one team so that they finish well after the others. The total gap from first to last was not necessarily 10 hours(Phil and his dad could have had to start from the nearby Coromandel Peninsula where Phil lives once there were reports of teams nearing the Tauranga area but they would err on the side of being early to arrive for the piststop festivities), but it must have been pretty large.

Chateau, as to your contention that teams could have all finished up by 4pm, I have several comments:

1. See the Bonnie Hunt Show information, source Phil Keoghan about how he and his dad were at the pitstop for more than 10 hours.
2. The first teams could not have gotten to the pitstop before 11am in my analysis of the different tasks in New Zealand.
3. Phil and his dad might have gotten there an hour or two early, so let's say possibly as early as 9am.
4. Add 10 hours at a minimum and you get 7pm.
5. If the last team finished by anytime after 4pm near Te Puke, it still take 2 hours or more to return to Auckland. If this case were real (it isn't for the reasons cited above), Phil could not get that burger before 6pm.

[georgiapeach]

Whew! I go to work and come back and find you all have been busy with some great speculation!

I just want to clarify a few things:

As DrAW said above, It is Nick/Starr in the Moscow video, not Terence/Sarah.

Ken and Tina were also seen in Moscow arr at the Pitstop.

The final #4 and #5 teams have usually run with production acting as decoys. (And frequently are allowed to do all the tasks if they want!) Team eliminated #6 has sometimes been run as a decoy, but has sometimes been brought from a second sequester location to do so. That team has also not always run decoy in the same city as the finale.

BUT!! I am not at liberty to say a lot about this, but we all need to remember that Portland was a VERY different Finale city than any we have ever had. It was the first time in the history of the race that we had the actual finale location BEFORE the finale took place. RFF chose to not share that info at the time in an effort to protect the ending of the race from a frenzy at the mat.

So use your creative thinking here.    I can tell you that TPTB may well have chosen to run decoys this time VERY differently than they have ever been run before. Including running ANY of the teams in Portland (not just the final 4-5), and also running a group of teams actually AFTER the final mat had occured.  Which could explain why we see some teams wandering Portland late in the day.

As far as NZ goes, here is exactly what we had from our source:

The word I heard from my source was that a team 'missed the bus' and didn't arrive somewhere (I got the impression it was a cluebox) until the morning after other teams (although no word on what time of day the other teams got there the previous day).

and:

A race spoiler I got was that at least one team missed a bus or similar and arrived at a challenge a day behind other teams (well, the following morning anyhow) - I hear this because the local crew hired to do the POV pickup shots had to revisit the location that morning to get matched lighting conditions.

Could this team maybe even have a Guido edit??

And FWIW, I don't this is a NEL.... 

[georgiapeach]

And to RFF, DrAw!!

[Slowhatch]

I hear this because the local crew hired to do the POV pickup shots had to revisit the location that morning to get matched lighting conditions.

Matched to what? Now I'm confused (more than usual, anyway  ). It should be interesting to watch the editing tomorrow.  Terminology here.

[michael]

Slowhatch, when they have an point-of view shot of the teams it's probably filmed with the same weather/lighting etc...as it is to when the teams are actually there....so if one team is a day  behind and the weather is different they will have to re-do the POV camera as well so the lightning, etc match up.

[Slowhatch]

OK, but...why? If they're 10 hours behind, then nobody would expect things to be the same. And if they're last, then the "team" cameraman would have lots of time to get lots of shots (and as far as we know, nobody made it to the pitstop in the morning--except the last team). John wanted a jacket, but Phil said No--"continuity." Was the 10-hour wait through the late evening? Through the night?

[georgiapeach]

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[Mrs Shrek]

OK, but...why? If they're 10 hours behind, then nobody would expect things to be the same. And if they're last, then the "team" cameraman would have lots of time to get lots of shots (and as far as we know, nobody made it to the pitstop in the morning--except the last team). John wanted a jacket, but Phil said No--"continuity." Was the 10-hour wait through the late evening? Through the night?

I'm no camera expert, but here's my best guess. I suspect they have a couple of separate cameras set up that take blank pictures, ie with no team in them, just to splice and add in later to the edited film. They will probably also take 'dummy shots' of Phil waiting at the mat. They can't necessarily do those shots in real time or there would be too many cameras getting in the way of each other when they are shooting the long shots of the contestants actually making the dash for the mat. If some shots were taken in the afternoon/evening, they couldn't be used for the next morning, as the lighting angles would be totally wrong. While a team's camera crew could do the shots, or even Phil's crew, they have just run a leg, and probably need a rest period too. Most of those blank shots could be taken after everyone, including Phil, has already left the Pitstop. And for continuity, it is probably best to have the same camera man make the new shots, cos he knows what shots he already has from the day before.