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Corvi's Confessional AnalysisSaturday, February 04, 2006
Panama Confessional Analysis, Episode 1
What is Confessional Analysis?
By analyzing the content and number of Survivor confessionals, one can find patterns that point to who will last longer in the show. It began with dividing the confessionals into two types: tribal history confessionals (Ts) and tribe dynamics confessionals (Ds). What I discovered during season three (which is when I first started this) is that generally people with a lot of Ds go before people with a lot of Ts. Also, people who are not getting very many confessionals will be safe until we hear from them. This has only been one exception to the latter rule - Zoe from S4, who never got very many confessionals, had no real storyline, and was still booted. The Zoe Exception still rankles me.
A couple other things to look for:
1) There is usually pre-merge narrator. They get a lot of Ts early on and it looks like they'll go far and then wham, the person is voted out shortly after the merge. If someone is definitely narrating and then the Ds start piling up, watch out!
2) People who get confessionals about the theme of the show usually last longer. This was very clear in Africa and Thailand. Africa was all about the culture of the area. Lex, Ethan, and, to a lesser extent, Tom got those confessionals. That's three of the final four. In Thailand, it was all about how to win the game. The culture wasn't emphasized as much after the elders were allowed to pick tribes. Brian was constantly talking about his strategy - his meta-strategy confessionals convinced me he was going to go far. Brian, as we know, won.
3) In eleven seasons, the only winner who didn't get a confessional in the first episode was Tina.
For Panama, the theme is related to Exile Island. People who are talking about that twist have a decent chance of making it further than those who don't. However, if someone gets exiled, we should expect them to be talking about it because they're in the middle of it. It's important to make a distinction between talking about being exiled in general and the specific situation the exilee finds themself in. The former confessionals indicate that the person may last longer.
Okay, let's dive into Survivor: Guatemala confessionals! Here are the codes:
T= tribal history confessional
D= tribal dynamic confessional
*=theme confessional
La Mina
Shane - 1T/1D
Terry - 1T
Dan - 1T
Bruce - 0T
Casaya
Cirie - 2T/3D
Melinda - 1T/1D
Ruth Marie - 1T
Tina - 3T/1D
Bayoneta
Courtney - 3T
Danielle - 2T/1D
Misty - 2T/1D
Sally - 2D
Viveros
Austin - 2T
Aras - 1T
Nick - 1D
Bobby - 1T
As I write every season, it's nearly impossible to make any real predictions based on one episode of analysis. This is predictions based on patterns and you need at least two, preferably three episodes before the patterns begin to take shape. That said, it'd be no fun to end my analysis right here, so let's go for it anyway! Hee.
This was Cirie's episode. So much of it was seen through her eyes. She commented on the tribal lines. She commented on what they had to work with when they got to their beach. She orchestrated Tina's ouster. She's the prominent character so far. She strikes as one of those pre-merge narrators, but it's waaaaay too early to say for sure. Ruth Marie told us her strategy of letting a leader take over and being an anonymous worker bee. Melinda talked about how Cirie was the weakest member of the tribe, but she wasn't willing to work against her because she didn't want to risk being targeted. Everyone's strategy at Casaya was pretty clear.
Misty was the first exilee, but she didn't get any confessionals that warrant an * because all of her confessionals were about her specific situation. If Misty were going to last a long time, I would have expected her to get some over reaching comments about the exile theme. So initial impression (subject to change, of course) is that Misty is not long for the game.
At the young girl's camp and the young men's camp, we heard about some conflict but it was done very differently. Nick comments on Aras' goofy yoga energy thing, but no one else does. Contrast that with the comments about Courtney. Both Sally and Danielle talk about how "out there" Courtney is and how she "over dramatizes" everything. Courtney is shown very negatively whereas Aras is shown as little goofy, but not really that bad. Now here's the most interesting part of the whole thing. Did you notice when all the tribes got together for the first time, we were shown Courtney winking at Aras? These two characters are linked.
The editing links two other characters together: Bruce and Shane. Shane is complaining about being stuck with this group of men. After a lot of his comments, we are shown a shot of Bruce. Bruce doesn't have a confessional in the episode (the only one who doesn't and if a pattern holds, there's no chance he wins), but we see a lot of him, and it's almost all through Shane's eyes. Conflict between these two is brewing.
What's really interesting about both of these character links is that analysis of the tribal switch next episode puts all of them on the same tribe.
So who's vulnerable next episode based on confessional analysis?
Nick
Misty
Sally
Danielle
Cirie
Melinda
Shane
