With the information that Steve/Anna were probably eliminated in Dublin, here are the demographics of the final 3 teams in the 30s:
MM teams: 10 (Tyler/Korey, Leo/Jamal, Will/James, Madison/Riley, Ryan/Dusty, Cesar/Ricky, Shane/Juan, Corey/Rob, Joel/Garrett, John/Greg)
MF Teams: 8 (Henry/Evan, Jessica/Cody, Colin/Christie, Hung/Chee, Kim/Penn, Derek/Claire, Michelle/Luis, Rod/Leticia)
FF Teams: 3 (Kristi/Jen, Raquel/Cayla, Emily/Molly)
Did some more math based on this based on some of the discourse we've had. Based on the 82 teams cast from TAR 30 to present-
Demographics of Finalist Teams as Percentage of Total Teams Cast:MM teams - 10/28 = 35.71%
MF teams - 8/34 = 23.52%
FF teams - 3/20 = 15%
Likelihood of Chosen Demographic Making F3: (not weighted by ability or circumstances like COVID, just straight odds)
MM teams - 28/82 = 34.14%
MF teams - 34/82 = 41.46%
FF teams - 20/82 = 24.39%
Subtracting the actual demographics (first numbers) from the theoretical odds of each type of team making the final leg and we find:
MM teams are performing +1.59%
better than expected
MF teams are performing -17.94%
worse than expected
FF teams are performing -8.39%
worse than expected
If you factor in things like U-Turns, Yields, people leaving due to COVID, these figures are less indicative of overall success but it's a good baseline. If I could make a claim casting overcorrected for how successful MF teams were in the past (especially with seasons like 26 and 29 which leaned heavily in favor of MF teams to begin with).