In his confessionals, Jeff Varner often made reference to the concept, "Old School vs. New School," which will be an ongoing theme this season. I view this as a simpler way of referring to the game of Survivor before and after the introduction of Hidden Immunity Idols. Watching all of the seasons that have transpired since The Australian Outback, he understands that players must build relationships both inside and outside of their core alliances (usually founded on common values and temperaments), as the game can change on a dime and contingency plans must be in place. It was nice to see him and the other "Old School" players lead the way in those discussions.
Kimmi Kappenberg did not get much face time in the first episode. I assume that her strategy is to fly under the radar and learn from her past mistakes of escalating tension at camp. At the same time, she will be at the bottom of any alliance and expendable unless she acquires some form of power, such as the Hidden Immunity Idol or some form of good will (i.e. winning a reward for a team, taking a well-regarded tribemate on a reward) that would make it a bad move to vote against her.
I do not think Shirin learned her lesson of lowering the intensity of her Survivor fandom while speaking to other players. I certainly understand how her mind works -- always looking at the numbers and perceptions of her allies and potential enemies -- but there are kinder, gentler ways of accomplishing those conversions. She stands the greatest chance of anyone (including Abi-Maria) of alienating members of her tribe, who will not appreciate her headstrong attitude at inappropriate times.
As much as I like Spencer, I feel that he will be targeted early an often because of other players' perception of him as very likeable and very strategic. His best strategy will be to align with another power player who might also carry that perception and not understand that Spencer would be pulling the strings. It seems as though he accomplished that in the first episode, but his only hope is that his tribe has numbers at any potential merge/split, because the other tribe definitely views him that way.
Terry Deitz came off as very likeable in his screen time. Certainly his comments to Spencer about his teenage daughters' advice to align with him were amusing. Like Jeff Varner, he is an "Old School" player attempting to play in the "New School" era. Like all of the older players, he appears to be aware of the adjustments he needs to make. I believe that he can go far if he takes advantage of the alliances he made but avoids the inevitable scrutiny and criticism that may fall upon others in his alliance.
Kass, unlike Shirin, will use her intellect to build relationships rather than alienate people. She certainly appeared to be aware of perceptions of her but not worried about torment that they could cause her. I am sure if she reached a final vote, she would garner greater favor from Survivor veterans than from her first-time opponents, who might have taken her bluntness and last-minute changes too personally. My only concern for her is if she can avoid getting caught in a lie. I think that she is smart enough to avoid that.
Monica got very little face time on the first episode. That leaves me wondering if she might make a deep run in the competition. I am sure she, like Kelley Wentworth, will be underestimated. And we have already seen what Wentworth is capable of accomplishing. As with any other player, it is all about how she positions herself within her alliance and whether she can build relationships outside of it well enough to leverage them at the moments of those inevitable twists (tribe split, merge, swap, etc.).
Joe is very likeable, and the directors/editors played up his attractiveness to the female contestants well. I do not necessarily see his personality, but of course, the cameras can only capture a certain amount of what actually happens. Much like he was in the last season, he will be targeted by those against him early and often because of his ability to win challenges. Unlike last time when he was constantly in a minority alliance, he will thrive in a majority alliance, but that still will only allow him to get to the jury and no further, as no one wants to be in a final vote against him.
I had liked Vytas to at least make it to the jury, but it appears that members of his tribe did their homework on his previous stint on Survivor and surmised that his Zen-like demeanor was a façade for attempting to manipulate favor. As soon as they saw that on display, they knew that he could not be trusted to stay within a smaller alliance. As much as I discount the strategy of eliminating people based upon that reason alone this early -- since the goal is to keep the hardest workers, strongest competitors, and most peaceful personalities at camp -- since we are dealing with experienced players, I suppose they felt that this was the best strategy. Perhaps they also felt sympathy for Abi-Maria, who deserves more time to prove herself.
While Abi-Maria is this season's potential powder keg, I really hope she can avoid the pitfalls of her abrasive personality long enough and show a genuine improvement in her self-awareness, which could take her far into the game. I am interested to see if she can build meaningful relationships regardless of whether they can advance her cause in the game, as doing so might help her to escape elimination at critical moments. Seeing her accomplish this and go far in the game might be the best display of redemption by any of the Second Chance cast. She can certainly achieve this faster by winning and sharing a reward for her team.
I believe that Ciera can go far regardless of whether she is on the stronger tribe. She, like Monica, did not get much face time in the episode, which leads me to believe that there will be a lot more of her to come. She shows maturity beyond her years, so I feel that she can build relationships with people of any age yet at the same time know how to be cutthroat while escaping the blame for damage it creates. I am sure if the competitors did their homework, they will want to align with her.
As much as I like Tasha for her personality and temperament, I feel that she might be at the bottom of any alliance she is in. The only way she can escape this label is if she orchestrates a blindside vote that strikes fear in anyone who might target her as expendable (based upon how there are already many other seemingly nice and smart castaways). I will root for her, but absent any further proof, I suspect she might be a victim of numbers in the early going.
Jeremy was smart to forge alliances in the early going, particularly with the strong working men. That will serve him well later in the game, provided he does not get paranoid about backstabbing possibilities. He can fly under the radar of those alliances. If he is smart, he will build relationships with the perceived weaker members of his tribe to insulate him from plots against the strong men. The only way Jeremy does not make the jury in my opinion is if there is a swap/split/merge that does not go in his favor. Even still, I believe that members of the other tribe might want to work with him.
From scenes in which he appeared, Stephen Fishbach appears to be in trouble. He did not seem to find his place within his tribe, and the perception of him as a schemer might prevent anyone from working with him. I am not sure how he will manage his way out of that dilemma. A swap/split/merge that spares his head from the chopping block and allows him to exploit fractures on the other tribe might be his only way to last a while in the game.
I like Woo as a person, but in his first stint on Survivor, he displayed how his honor code will prevent him from making the correct choices in the game. As long as he is on the stronger tribe, he will go far, because his allies know that they can trust him. Either way, he will not earn the respect needed from a veteran group of players to prove he is the ultimate survivor. Also, if he is in a minority alliance, he will be voted out because of his ability to win challenges for a team.
Kelly Wigglesworth should be fun to watch, since she is the only competitor who previously competed on the show before it was known to be a worldwide phenomenon. I suspect she will not last long, if only because her intensity about the game does not match those of some of the other strong players, particularly the other women. At the same time, this might allow some of the men who view her lack of intensity as something refreshing (i.e. anti-Shirin, anti-Kass).
Kelley Wentworth was one of my favorites, if only because there was not much of a scouting report on her from her previous experience. She deserved a second chance, as she previously paid the penalty incurred by her father, and in the first episode she certainly proved that to everyone by finding the clue to the Hidden Immunity Idol and then capturing it, apparently without anyone noticing. Her best strategy is to keep it to herself and maintain an appearance as a non-threat, and only unveil it when she is targeted. I expect her to go far and surprise a lot of people.
Andrew is most deserving of a second chance because of the unfair way he was previously eliminated (by an eliminated Outcast he was not expecting to see again in the game, one of the most ill-conceived twists Survivor implemented). I would hope that he can navigate the "New School" way of playing the game, but I suspect that the way he will be perceived as a leader will make him a frequent target.
Like Abi-Maria, Peih-Gee will need to reinvent her persona from her previous season. I suspect that she will show self-awareness, and then the only key for her is whether it will come across as phoniness to her teammates. I feel that she will be at the bottom end of a numbers game whenever there is a shake-up in the game.
Keith should be a lot of fun to watch. However, I feel that he will be trapped in a numbers game and eliminated further away from the final tribal council than his previous season. However, if he can connect on a personal level with others on the tribe, he can rally support to preserve him past other perceived strong tribe members.
