Archive > The Amazing Race 27 Spoilers
TAR 27 Speculation and Discussion of **SPOILERS**
BritishTARFan:
--- Quote from: Neobie on September 18, 2015, 11:34:37 AM ---Here's what I have right now, based on the awesome work on the preview and cross-referencing Oval's tracker:
Kelly/Shevonne make it to Rio de Janeiro (seen in Copacabana)
Alex/Adam make it to Buenos Aires (seen in Rio de Janeiro Airport)
Ernest/Jin make it to San Antonio de Areco (seen at Pit Stop)
Jazmine/Danielle make it to Victoria Falls (seen at Sao Paulo Airport)
Cindy/Rick make it to Paris (seen at Johannesburg Airport)
Kelsey/Joey make it to Krakow (seen at Schindler's Factory)
Logan/Chris make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Denise/James Earl make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Tanner/Josh make it to India (seen with winter melons)
Justin/Diana make it to India (seen running with kids)
Tiffany/Krista make it to Hong Kong (seen at Tsimshatsui)
Barring any weirdness like double eliminations, this means that the 1st NEL must happen in or before Zimbabwe (Leg 5), and the 2nd NEL must happen in or before the Hague (Leg 7).
There might be a way to calculate the chances of each team, but the only one I have right now is for Kelly/Shevonne, who have a just a 20% chance of surviving Leg 1 (with a well-placed NEL in Rio de Janeiro) and a 5% chance of making it past Leg 4.
--- End quote ---
The Paris leg is a Kor also Cindy & Rick are seen doing the Container Port challenge which is most likely in Rotterdam meaning they probably make it to Leg 7
Neobie:
I think that's Kelsey/Joey at the simulator, but yes I forgot Phil's clue in his pocket!
The first non-elimination must still be in Zimbabwe or before, and we have a KOR in Paris. I'm thinking the last non-elimination would be in the second half of the race?
north09:
--- Quote from: Neobie on September 18, 2015, 11:52:35 AM ---I think that's Kelsey/Joey at the simulator, but yes I forgot Phil's clue in his pocket!
The first non-elimination must still be in Zimbabwe or before, and we have a KOR in Paris. I'm thinking the last non-elimination would be in the second half of the race?
--- End quote ---
Knowing there were a reported seven teams safe at the end of Leg 05 (a confirmed elimination leg) I would place our first NEL in Zambia (Leg 04). The next one would be the KOR in Paris. And then I'm speculating on another on Leg 09.
Neobie:
Ah, that makes calculations easier! Here's some random mathematics:
There's a 31% chance that the first 6 boots will go in this order:
Kelly/Shevonne, Alex/Adam, Ernest/Jin, Jazmine/Danielle, Cindy/Rick, Kelsey/Joey
And a 14% chance that it'd be this slight variation:
Kelly/Shevonne, Alex/Adam, Jazmine/Danielle, Ernest/Jin, Cindy/Rick, Kelsey/Joey
Purely from a statistical point of view, here are the chances of each team winning the million dollars:
Kelly/Shevonne, Alex/Adam, Ernest/Jin, Jazmine/Danielle: 0%
Cindy/Rick: 1%
Kelsey/Joey: 5%
Tanner/Josh, Logan/Chris, Denise/James Earl, Justin/Diana: 17% each
Tiffany/Krista: 26%
fossil-racer:
Based on the Intros from 18-26
Speculated top teams
Tanner and Josh were placed 1st in the intro. This spot had a team that won before but never a last place team. Common team placements in this spot are 4th and 6th place.
Logan and Chris were placed 2nd in the intro. This spot had a team that won before but never a last place team. Common team placements for this spot are 1st and 5th.
Denise and James were placed 3rd in the intro. This spot had a winning team and an 11th place team. Common placements in this spot are 6th and 11th.
Justin and Diane were place 5th in the intro. This spot never had a winning team and had a 11th place team. Common placements are 7th and 10th.
Tiffany and Krista were placed last. This spot never had a winning team and had a 11th place team. Common placements are 2nd which happened 3 times before.
Based on the intro, if it means anything :funny:, I speculate Tiffany and Krista are not the winners. The other 4 are all in the air.
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