Leg 4 or 5 for Rob & Sheila
Leg 7 for Matt & Daniel in my opinion.
Ok. . . If they survived their 1st legs, let's say they were eliminated in those legs.
So for TAR21, if the Chippendales had not overtaken Rob & Sheila, Chippendales go home 1st. Then with Amy & Daniel getting lost and Caitlin & Brittany's bad cab in Indonesia, they'd be the next 2 to go. Then if Rob & Sheila would be eliminated on the 4th leg, Gary & Will could keep racing. Leg 5's a NEL. Leg 6 with Rob & Kelley falling behind. Then the Rockers' passport problems. Then the F5 would have Abbie & Ryan, Twinnies, Trexi, Beekman, and Gary & Will. Now if Gary & Will took the Frankfurt connection in Leg 7, they'd get the F5 boot; but if not, Abbie & Ryan would go home due to the fact that they were u-turned. Then from here on. . . it's a bit hard to predict.
On the other hand, if Matt and Daniel's boat didn't capsize twice, Country singers go home 1st, then Idries & Jamil due to their water problems, then stubborn John and her poor gf not using the ep, and then Dave & Connor's withdrawal. Leg 6 = NEL. If Matt & Daniel goes home on the 7th leg, then Pam & Winnie would be safe from their big mistake. Then Chuck & Wynona's penalty would boot them out. Leg 9 = NEL. Then the F5 would have Pam & Winnie, Max & Katie, Hockey, Roller Derby, and YouTube. Team YouTube's flight mistake would send them home next. Then on leg 11, since the country singers went home 1st, either Roller Derby or Pam & Winnie won't race for the million, depending if Pam & Winnie gets lost or not.