What if, for TAR 15 there were no start line elimination, and instead have a normal elimination at the pitstop in Japan?
How far would Eric and Lisa have gone in the race, and would Maria/Tiffany still be last, and in this case out?
Great question, DavidJunior!
Maria & Tiffany would definitely be gone, because they took a 2-hour penalty after losing their two people.
In Leg 2, I presume Garrett & Jessica would still have had their duck troubles. I think Lisa seemed a bit more calm than Ericka or Jessica, so Eric & Lisa would survive.
Marcy & Ron go home in Leg 3 because of their bad Detour choice. Zev & Justin leave in Leg 4 from the passports. Lance & Keri still get lost in the UAE and leave on Leg 5. Mika & Canaan have the slide problems on Leg 6 and still leave there.
Leg 7 is where it gets interesting. I feel confident that it is quite impossible to struggle more than Brian & Ericka did on that leg, after they fell behind at the Roadblock and also had a penalty at the Pit Stop, so they would be eliminated, as Maria & Tiffany are already gone.
Leg 8 is the NEL and then in Leg 9, I guess that Gary & Matt would still go home, unless Eric & Lisa also did not know what a candelabra is.
Leg 10 is another NEL and Flight Time & Big Easy obviously leave on Leg 11.
So Eric & Lisa are officially in the Final Three! I don't know how well they would do there.
There is a lot of guesswork in my scenario obviously, and a couple of things could've worked out differently, such as Eric & Lisa getting more lost than Lance & Keri in Dubai, or Eric & Lisa perhaps getting unlucky at the haybales and getting the Speed Bump on Leg 9.
What if Preston & Jennifer outran Christie & Jodi to the Leg 1 Pit Stop on TAR14? How much further could they have gone, considering the problems experienced by other teams on certain legs?