Finish as of the end of leg 11
1st - Kym & Alli - 2 wins - used U-Turn
2nd - Brooke & Robbie - 1 win - used Save kinda / saved by NEL
3rd - Adam & Bethany - 3 wins - used FF
4th - Shelley & Nici - 0 wins - saved by NEL x2
Raptor shrieks of delight abound as Shelley & Nici cockroach their way to the finale. Who will win? Find out...when when I get a stable Internet connection at home.
Innyway, teams are given a manila envelope in the Virgin Islands which directs them to City Hall and eventually the film studio. In reality Adam & Bethany beat Brooke & Robbie so Adam & Bethany are removed from my theories of who gets eliminated midround. We know that Broome & Robbie were awful at this part in real life but that Shelley & Nici were not great navigating either (Shetlands to Aberdeen, Copenhagen, rural Marrakech) so I fired up random.org and played Russian roulette, using 4 slots for B/R, 3 for S/N and 1 for K/A. Ultimately
Brooke & Robbie are eliminated in fourth. I then figured out the random order teams start/finish RB 1 and get:
1st - Shelley & Nici
2nd - Kym & Alli
3rd - Adam & Bethany
According to maf the rescue task really didn't help out Adam & Bethany much but I still put them as odds on favorites to finish first. From their youtube vids it sounds like Kym & Alli have decent faculty with water tasks and I don't have any information to go off on for Shelley & Nici. Adjusting for relative competence on random.org I get a finish order here of
1. Kym & Alli
2. Adam & Bethany
(gap)
3. Shelley & Nici
Here teams are directed to use taxis and I figure I should include the potential of bad taxi luck. Accordingly teams arrive at the container yard in the following order:
1. Kym & Alli
(gap)
2. Adam & Bethany
(gap)
3. Shelley & Nici
I'm not going to attempt to weight the teams' chances of doing a mental task like this - I know Bethany struggled at this but arriving last at RB 1 would allow them to see that Bethany could do it and leave Adam with the mental task - but I did factor in the time gaps; by the time Shelley & Nici arrive, Kym & Alli have two correct numbers and Adam & Bethany have one. I literally went item by item to see who finished in what place and found
1. Adam & Bethany
2. Kym & Alli
3. Shelley & Nici
All fished at the same time
which means the season comes to a taxi race. One more use of random.org gives the final results:
1st - Shelley & Nici - 1 win - saved by NEL x2
2nd - Kym & Alli - 2 wins - used U-Turn
3rd - Adam & Bethany - 3 wins - used FF
4th - Brooke & Robbie - 1 win - U-Turned, used Save, saved by NEL (still suck at driving)
5th - Tim & TeJay - 1 win - saved by NEL (U-Turn magically inserted here, they get hit with one of the U-Turns, navigation trouble and sheep problems)
6th - Jim & Misti - 4 wins - U-Turned, used U-Turn, used Express Pass (they still fail in Copenhagen, minus a Save)
7th - Michael & Scott - 0 wins - n/a (got lost in navigation heavy leg)
8th - Keith & Whitney - 0 wins - n/a (weakest team to fall for Painters trap)
9th - Dennis & Isabelle - 0 wins - n/a (lose FF battle)
10th - Lisa & Michelle - 0 wins - n/a (switch Detours, suck at both)
11th - Amy & Maya - 0 wins - n/a (Amy runs into a car at the Detour, dies at the RB)
While Shelley & Nici going from technical last to first just because of their taxi is probably not what Plat intended when asking this, the idea of a team being spared by two consecutive NELs, melting down at multie junctions and not really excelling in anything winning would make TAR 25 a stronger contender for best thing of television ever.