Probation? How the hell does that work? If he breaks something else, he's out?
I don't think Enzo's character has been all that important lately. All of his funny has turned to petty griping and bitching. And I think if they are going for making things interesting, they'd work to influence Matt staying. That would rile everyone up in the house and get some drama started. If Matt goes and Enzo stays, things are on course to go exactly as Enzo and Hayden want, which is boring boring boring.
ETA: by 'influence Matt staying', I don't mean to imply that they would be rigging anything. Giving Enzo the penalty nom would simply be the right thing to do. It just happens that it might help Matt out.