The Amazing Race > The Amazing Race Discussion
Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams (TAR 1 - 33)
theschnauzers:
Team This Week Week 9 Week 8 Week 7 Trend
Jet-Cord 2.7000 27/10 (2.8888) (2.8750) (3.1428) Rising Slowly
Louie-Michael 4.4000 44/10 (4.4444) (4.5000) (4.7142) Stable
Jordan-Daniel 4.8000 48/10 (5.0000) (5.5000) (5.5714) Rising Slowly
Brent-Caite 4.8000 48/10 (5.1111) (5.5000) (5.7142) Rising Slowly
Carol-Brandy 4.0000 36/9
Steve-Allison 3.3750 27/8
Jeff-Jordan 5.6666 34/6
Joseph-Heidi 4.4000 22/5
Monique-Shawne 5.3333 16/3
Jody-Shannon 10.0000 20/2
Adrian-Dana 11.0000 11/1
It now appears we're going to have at least two final three teams wgose final average will be higher than 3.0, even 4.0.
theschnauzers:
FINAL PROJECTION
Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153
Assuming best remaining performances are 2 placement points for 2 remaining legs, and 6 placement points for worse possible performance is (3-3) to reach the finish mat with one more elimination and final leg remaining).
Jet-Cord 2.7000 27/10
29/12-33/12
Predicted range (2.4166 to 2.7500)
Note if J-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 2.5833.
Louie-Michael 4.4000 44/10
46/12-50/12
Predicted range (3.8333 to 4.1666)
Note if L-M were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.000
Jordan-Daniel 4.8000 48/10
50/12-54/12
Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)
Note if J-D were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333
Brent-Caite 4.8000 48/10
50/12-54/12
Predicted range (4.1666 to 4.5000)
Note if B-C were to perform with barely surviving finishes but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.3333
What this tells us:
Barring an error of nearly unprecedented proportions, Jet-Cord have become the heavy statistical favorites to win, period.
Should any of the other three teams win, that team would become the worse-performing winning team by average placement across all 16 editions to date. None of those three remaining teams can attain an average placement that is any better than 4.0000. If Jet-Cord win it all, they will be the fourth-best performing winners (and eighth overall), just behind Tyler-James and Kris-Jon. If they are third in this next-to-last leg, but win in the end, they wouldn’t be worse that the four more spaces down the list, with the eighth nest winning performance (and 12th best overall performance, ever to date.)
At worse, as long as Jet-Cord make the final three, their final average cannot be worse than 2.7500, the same average placement attained by Margie-Luke.
I’ll be moving long distance next week, so I probably won’t get a chance to update the projection, but once it’s in the final three luck becomes more of a factor with the final leg. Just look at the number of second place teams that finished with a better average than the winning team. Although in this season, unless it’ a Jet-Cord win, it’ll be the worse performing winners ever.
theschnauzers:
Here's the placements after leg 11. I probably won't be ale to post the final placements next Sunday night; at the moment I don't even know where I will be next Sunday night.
But the next chance I get after Sunday, I'll post the season numbers and update the list at the beginning of the thread.
Team This Week Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7 Trend
Jet-Cord 2.6363 29/11 (2.7000) (2.8888) (2.8750) (3.1428) Steady
Brent-Caite 4.4545 49/11 (4.8000) (5.1111) (5.5000) (5.7142) Rising Slowly
Jordan-Daniel 4.6363 51/11 (4.8000) (5.0000) (5.5000) (5.5714) Rising Slowly
Louie-Michael 4.3636 48/11
Carol-Brandy 4.0000 36/9
Steve-Allison 3.3750 27/8
Jeff-Jordan 5.6666 34/6
Joseph-Heidi 4.4000 22/5
Monique-Shawne 5.3333 16/3
Jody-Shannon 10.0000 20/2
Adrian-Dana 11.0000 11/1
Hooky:
I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(
Dånooky:
--- Quote from: Hooky on May 03, 2010, 04:55:13 PM ---I really hope Brent & Caite don't win. Their mediocre performance to get to the Final 4 is being portrayed as "evidence" that Caite is not stupid, and the way things are being edited really implies a Brent & Caite win. Almost like the producers are desperate for us to like them. I just hope it isn't so. :(
--- End quote ---
you should re-open your rant thread
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