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Millionaire "Tournament of 10"

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Coutzy:
I have a book somewhere that says something about a great thinker that died due to turtle-head. Let me dig it up...

Hmm. No thinkers. But the Greek playwright Aeschylus was turtle-head guy.

Interestingly enough, on the very same page is this entry:

"Francis Bacon: The 16th Century English philospher died of pneumonia after pioneering the concept of frozen food by stuffing snow into a chicken."

apskip:
Coutzy,
YOu have verified the death cause for Francis Bacon identical to what my information reveals.

Todays's question was a quiet easy one, designed to get the qualifier to attempt an answer. it was:

The ? Insitute has estimated the total number of people who have every lived on Earth. Is their conclusion:
50 billion
100 billion
1 trillion
5 trillion

So, there are maybe 6.5 billion on earth right now. Given the annual population increases which have been pretty much worldwide, there were maybe half that amount one generation ago and maybe half again two generations ago. You get the picture. That progression even going back that many generations cannot get to 1 trillion or 5 trillion. the ballgame is between 50 billion and 100 billion. from what I knew, thet answer lookedd like 100 billion ot me. Today's qualifier thought so too. He guessed 100 billion and is the first one to be in line for the $1 million prize.

apskip:
I am trying to keep up with this, but it's been tough.  The #7 qualifier got this question:
Who delivered the less famous two-hour speech that preceded Abraham Lincoln’s two-minute Gettysburg Address?
A: Wendell Phillips, B: Daniel Webster, C: Robert G. Ingersoll, D: Edward Everett

All I knew was that I did NOT think it was Daniel Webster. She did not go for it. The correct answer is Edward Everett
and this is a typical $1 million quesiton where you have little chance of beating the 25% odds of getting it correct.

I don't think the #6 person did either, but we had a power failure with the telecast right in the middle so I can't say for sure. I will try ot find out what happened.

Today the #5 qualifier was up and his question was about a Bartlett's quotation saying that I can't remember right now but will sometime soon.
Was it by Winston Churchill, Noel Coward, Mark Twain, or a fourth non-contemporary individual?
The correct answer was Churchill, but this qualifier did not elect to take the risk. Tim Janus was the first of four $100,000 winners to try and they all have more to lose than the $50,000 winners who have ducked.

apskip:
Today is a continuation of the trend to not step up. The #3 qualifier Stephen Birt thought of the correct answer but did not have the confidence to go for it. The question is "What is nephelococcygia?

1. staring at clouds
2. to 4. other answers

Staring at clouds was correct, another very difficult question with the probability of getting a correct answer without access to the Internet just above 25%.

I had new thinking about the mathematics of calculating the net present value of going for it vs. keeping the already-earned money. The equation is different for the $100,000 winners, who have a bit more to lose. There is a 75% chance of losing $75,000 vs. the 25% chance of winning either $900,000 net or the already-earned $100,000.  If the probability of either one going for it is 30%, then the net present value of a correct answer for #3 was 70% 25% $900,000 + 30% 25% 0 = $157,500. Since that is clearly more than 75% $75,000 = $56,250. That indicates that any $100,000 winner going for it with those odds would end up with a NPV of $101,000 higher than the original $100,000. It sure looks like they should take the risk to me given the probability of getting it taken away by #1 or #2. It is admittedly hard to calculate probabilities when in that environment, but each bery intelligent contestant had time while the others were being filmed to work out the probabilities and net present value under sets of assumptions.

apskip:
It's all over. so guess what happened. One more time, the qualifier would have guessed the right answer (7 out of 10 were able to do this), but she did not go for it becuase losign $225,000 was a huge barrier.

Yesterday the question was another very difficult one, which president in the first half of the 19th century was the victim of a shooting by someone with 2 guns, both of which misfired?

1. John Adams
2. Martin van Buren
3. Andrew Jackson
4. James Polk

The correct answer was Andrew Jackson, which I guessed and so did the last $100,000 winner, but she did not go for it.

Today the question was a difficult geogrpahy one. what is Blohenge?

1. a desert in Australia
2. a river in Ireland
3. a forest in Scotland
4. a mountain in Wales

I've been to Wales and there are other mountains with similar names there, so that was my guess. With a close to 50% probability of getting it right, much better than the 25% that my net present value model was based on, I would have gone for it. However, the $250,000 winner did not.

That gave the prize to Sam Murray, who guessed his way to $1,000,000 as no other qualifier was willign to gamble. He did have by far the easiest question.

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