Topic: TAR 15 Speculation on Spoilers

[pamukamu]

It is already second day for teams and Phil came here already on Saturday night through Finland on late night flight - so probably they have already left. The main places they could go from here without airplane is a car or Riga or train to Moscow. Train takes too much time considering how long they have been here. So my guess is they left through airport this morning (main connections through Helsinki, Copenhagen, Frankfurt,Prague) or have gone to Latvia. No more sights in Estonia, I guess they have left.

[spontaneousss]

this horrible thought crossed my mind that there are probably only 2 f/f teams this season and the other one aside from the pokers are the unlucky ones who got eliminated before even leaving the US..

[Chateau d If]

It is already second day for teams and Phil came here already on Saturday night through Finland on late night flight

 

Where is "here" 

 

[spontaneousss]

It is already second day for teams and Phil came here already on Saturday night through Finland on late night flight

 

Where is "here" 

 

i guess that's where the Latvia thingy came?

[primefun]

Hate to break it to you guys but I've check and there is only 1 ferry per day from Stockholm to Tallinn. Maybe they were just playing poker in their rooms?? And If you look at the 2nd picture Maria is carrying a plastic bag with what looks like clothes??

after looking at the ferry schedules there seems to be one possibility:

they took off from Stockholm 2nd of august at 5 p.m. to Helsinki on Silja Serenade/Silja Symphony which arrived in Helsinki 3rd of August at 9:55 a.m.... from helsinki to tallinn there are several operators : Tallink/Viking Line/Linda Line... i would bet on Linda Line ship departing helsinki 10:00 and arriving in tallinn at 11:30, this again is an extremely tight connection although in ports usually it doesnt take long to change ships taken they arrive/depart in the same terminal, that is basically the only other option i can think of taken the news reporter of Postimees was accurate with stating the teams arrived around noon to Pikk street...  

then again why would they take this ship in the first place is not logical at all as the ship to tallinn departed 45 mins after the one going to helsinki.

[spontaneousss]

Hate to break it to you guys but I've check and there is only 1 ferry per day from Stockholm to Tallinn. Maybe they were just playing poker in their rooms?? And If you look at the 2nd picture Maria is carrying a plastic bag with what looks like clothes??

after looking at the ferry schedules there seems to be one possibility:

they took off from Stockholm 2nd of august at 5 p.m. to Helsinki on Silja Serenade/Silja Symphony which arrived in Helsinki 3rd of August at 9:55 a.m.... from helsinki to tallinn there are several operators : Tallink/Viking Line/Linda Line... i would bet on Linda Line ship departing helsinki 10:00 and arriving in tallinn at 11:30, this again is an extremely tight connection although in ports usually it doesnt take long to change ships taken they arrive/depart in the same terminal, that is basically the only other option i can think of taken the news reporter of Postimees was accurate with stating the teams arrived around noon to Pikk street...  

then again why would they take this ship in the first place is not logical at all as the ship to tallinn departed 45 mins after the one going to helsinki.

well maybe they were way behind the other 5 teams that's why they were on a different ferry??? anyways i hope there's still hope for them and they were just stripped off their belongings.. even though it's unlikely 

[Chateau d If]

option i can think of taken the news reporter of Postimees was accurate with stating the teams arrived around noon to Pikk street... 

then again why would they take this ship in the first place is not logical at all as the ship to tallinn departed 45 mins after the one going to helsinki.

How about they take Flight OV 122?

[georgiapeach]

It is already second day for teams and Phil came here already on Saturday night through Finland on late night flight - so probably they have already left. The main places they could go from here without airplane is a car or Riga or train to Moscow. Train takes too much time considering how long they have been here. So my guess is they left through airport this morning (main connections through Helsinki, Copenhagen, Frankfurt,Prague) or have gone to Latvia. No more sights in Estonia, I guess they have left.

to RFF pamukamu!! 

May I ask you to tell us more about what you know about how or when Phil arrived in Tallinn?? Thanks!!!

[apskip]

Hate to break it to you guys but I've check and there is only 1 ferry per day from Stockholm to Tallinn. Maybe they were just playing poker in their rooms?? And If you look at the 2nd picture Maria is carrying a plastic bag with what looks like clothes??

after looking at the ferry schedules there seems to be one possibility:

they took off from Stockholm 2nd of august at 5 p.m. to Helsinki on Silja Serenade/Silja Symphony which arrived in Helsinki 3rd of August at 9:55 a.m.... from helsinki to tallinn there are several operators : Tallink/Viking Line/Linda Line... i would bet on Linda Line ship departing helsinki 10:00 and arriving in tallinn at 11:30, this again is an extremely tight connection although in ports usually it doesnt take long to change ships taken they arrive/depart in the same terminal, that is basically the only other option i can think of taken the news reporter of Postimees was accurate with stating the teams arrived around noon to Pikk street...  

then again why would they take this ship in the first place is not logical at all as the ship to tallinn departed 45 mins after the one going to helsinki.

primefun,
Your thinking on what happened mirrors what I have already stated about the timing of the ferries Stockholm Helsinki and Helsinki Talinn to arrive at 1630 into Talinn's port (I discount your 5 mintue turnaround in Helsinki and assume that the Poker Players would have gotten the next one).

Howver, regardless of whether they got the 1000am or 230pm ferry to Talinn,  you run into the conclusion that they would have made a mistake by boarding that combination for 500pm departure to Helsinki when the Talinn ship left at 545pm. Three thoughts come to mind:
1. they made a mistake and got on the wrong ship
2. they were misinformed by ticketing agents when timing was tight and they had to make a decision
3. they were already eliminated and it did not matter when they arrived in Talinn as long as they got there in the afternoon

Take your pick.

[Jobby]

spontaneousss said

They shouldn't have gone there as F/F teams get bad luck there!

I am tired of hearing about how female/female teams should win the Amazing Race. Three of them (Lyn/Karlyn, Dustin/Kandice, Charla/Mirna and Cara/Jaime) have made the final 4 in 14 seasons. As we all know, no female/female team has ever won an Amazing Race. This is sad, but statistically you have to conclude that they are at a disadavantage. That means that a female/female victory will come when either some F/F team gets lucky or when the playing field has been tilted in their favor, or when all teams are Female/Female (what I call the ultimate tilt). The minimal casting of what I regard to be alpha male teams since AR4 (I put only AR7's Brian/Greg, AR9's Eric/Jeremy and BJ/Tyler, AR10's Tyler/James, AR11's Joe/Bill, AR13's Andrew/Dan and Mark/Bill in that category althought the Linz family in AR8 is awfully close to a Male/Male team) has in fact provided such a somewhat tilted playing field, but it hasn't made a difference. The Couples teams became the winners instead of Alpha Male teams. In 14 ARs, 6 Male/Male teams have won, 5 Couples teams have won, and 3 Family groups have won (Linz family, Nick/Starr and Tammy/Victor). When will a Female/Female team win? I haven't a clue but it doesn't look like in AR15.

See what spontaneousss wrote below. I did indeed forget Lyn/Karlyn, possibly because I like to keep them out of mind. I have altered the seconds sentence above accordinagly.

Off-topic. Yea, it's quite sad Lyns were the lucky ones to edge the fake Beauty Queens out of TAR 10 final 3. But i doubt the BQ's have even 0.5% chance of winning anyway.

And, i'm pretty sure team poker girls are decoys... where are their backpacks?

[georgiapeach]

I pick the 1040 AM flight.

[DavidJunior]

i was just thinking:

this is TOTAL SPECULATION, btw

but, what if instead of a Mauritius leg, and instead of just staying in the U.A.E. for two legs, they went to a nearby Arabic country such as Qatar or Bahrain?

and what if they used other means to get there and back (such as a ferry)?

they could potentially get to one of those countries, complete a leg, and arrive back in the u.a.e. in time for steffiesunrise's sighting

the ferry scenario could also explain why she saw the team at a hotel and not at the airport (if said hotel was on the way to the airport)

haven't done too much research on this possibility, just a random thought that i thought could be worth sharing with the group...

The Gulf States as the site of the post-Dubai leg is a distinct possibility. However, I believe there was a sighting in Dubai on the morning of July 29. Teams would not have time after that to go to another Gulf State, do a leg and pit stop, and then get to Amsterdam by the morning of July 30.

i was thinking more between the sighting on the 27th and steffie's sighting on the 29th

they were no where to be seen for about a day and a half, which seems a little too tight to fit a whole extra country in there, so nvm...

[puddin]

Latvia is next.

Even though this is the spec topic, this is the third or 4th time you have stated Latvia, here and in other topics, is this fact or someplace you want to see? If you have evidence please say so. If its something you can't share public and want to keep it private, please message me or one of the other detectives, thanks 

[Benedicto]

No bunching points in Tallinn? 

[georgiapeach]

No bunching points in Tallinn? 

The ferry itself was the bunch, I think.

[apskip]

i was just thinking:

this is TOTAL SPECULATION, btw

but, what if instead of a Mauritius leg, and instead of just staying in the U.A.E. for two legs, they went to a nearby Arabic country such as Qatar or Bahrain?

and what if they used other means to get there and back (such as a ferry)?


they could potentially get to one of those countries, complete a leg, and arrive back in the u.a.e. in time for steffiesunrise's sighting

the ferry scenario could also explain why she saw the team at a hotel and not at the airport (if said hotel was on the way to the airport)

haven't done too much research on this possibility, just a random thought that i thought could be worth sharing with the group...

The Gulf States as the site of the post-Dubai leg is a distinct possibility. However, I believe there was a sighting in Dubai on the morning of July 29. Teams would not have time after that to go to another Gulf State, do a leg and pit stop, and then get to Amsterdam by the morning of July 30.

i was thinking more between the sighting on the 27th and steffie's sighting on the 29th

they were no where to be seen for about a day and a half, which seems a little too tight to fit a whole extra country in there, so nvm...

Past trips by Amazing Race Asia 1 to Dubai have utilized Margham Desert Camp and Desert Area 53 for in-the-desert stops or tasks. AR5 went to Margham Dunes (presumably near Margham Desert Camp) and a pit stop was at a Desert oasis. It's possible for teams to be totally out of reach to the outside world wihle spending quality time in the Dubai desert.

[mjriches2005]

i was just thinking:

this is TOTAL SPECULATION, btw

but, what if instead of a Mauritius leg, and instead of just staying in the U.A.E. for two legs, they went to a nearby Arabic country such as Qatar or Bahrain?

and what if they used other means to get there and back (such as a ferry)?

they could potentially get to one of those countries, complete a leg, and arrive back in the u.a.e. in time for steffiesunrise's sighting

the ferry scenario could also explain why she saw the team at a hotel and not at the airport (if said hotel was on the way to the airport)

haven't done too much research on this possibility, just a random thought that i thought could be worth sharing with the group...

The Gulf States as the site of the post-Dubai leg is a distinct possibility. However, I believe there was a sighting in Dubai on the morning of July 29. Teams would not have time after that to go to another Gulf State, do a leg and pit stop, and then get to Amsterdam by the morning of July 30.

i was thinking more between the sighting on the 27th and steffie's sighting on the 29th

they were no where to be seen for about a day and a half, which seems a little too tight to fit a whole extra country in there, so nvm...

Flight time between Dubai and Doha is 40min. Dubai to Bahrain is about 1 hour.  Teams would have time to fly there like on the 28th, do tasks, and return to Dubai the next day and fly to Amsterdam, arriving on the 30th.  That would be more logical and it could occur, and for the ferry, there used to be a ferry between both countries.  We seen things like this, travel from one country back to the previous one and travel out there, TAR5 (Egypt-Kenya-Tanzania-Kenya) and TAR14 (Switzerland-Germany-Austria-Germany)

[mjriches2005]

5 teams left.

Petr will send the pic as soon as he can get to a PC, but he is busy just now.

Wow!  So far 9 legs, 3 more to go then?
  

[The Amazing Race]

5 teams left.
Ericka & Brian and who?

 

Could you tell me where in each leg teams visit what country ? and which teams have been eliminated ?

[Dånooky]

5 teams left.
Ericka & Brian and who?

 

Could you tell me where in each leg teams visit what country ? and which teams have been eliminated ?

There's a summary in page 1

[mjriches2005]

5 teams left.
Ericka & Brian and who?

 

Could you tell me where in each leg teams visit what country ? and which teams have been eliminated ?

1) Japan, 3) Vietnam, 4) Cambodia, 5) UAE, 7) Netherlands Sweden 9) Estonia 10) Czech Rep
only Leg 2 is an unknown destination and Leg 6 possibly in Dubai but unsure yet until more info comes along.  And for teams I really don't know?

 

[Dånooky]

Hate to break it to you guys but I've check and there is only 1 ferry per day from Stockholm to Tallinn. Maybe they were just playing poker in their rooms?? And If you look at the 2nd picture Maria is carrying a plastic bag with what looks like clothes??

after looking at the ferry schedules there seems to be one possibility:

they took off from Stockholm 2nd of august at 5 p.m. to Helsinki on Silja Serenade/Silja Symphony which arrived in Helsinki 3rd of August at 9:55 a.m.... from helsinki to tallinn there are several operators : Tallink/Viking Line/Linda Line... i would bet on Linda Line ship departing helsinki 10:00 and arriving in tallinn at 11:30, this again is an extremely tight connection although in ports usually it doesnt take long to change ships taken they arrive/depart in the same terminal, that is basically the only other option i can think of taken the news reporter of Postimees was accurate with stating the teams arrived around noon to Pikk street... 

then again why would they take this ship in the first place is not logical at all as the ship to tallinn departed 45 mins after the one going to helsinki.

primefun,
Your thinking on what happened mirrors what I have already stated about the timing of the ferries Stockholm Helsinki and Helsinki Talinn to arrive at 1630 into Talinn's port (I discount your 5 mintue turnaround in Helsinki and assume that the Poker Players would have gotten the next one).

Howver, regardless of whether they got the 1000am or 230pm ferry to Talinn,  you run into the conclusion that they would have made a mistake by boarding that combination for 500pm departure to Helsinki when the Talinn ship left at 545pm. Three thoughts come to mind:
1. they made a mistake and got on the wrong ship
2. they were misinformed by ticketing agents when timing was tight and they had to make a decision
3. they were already eliminated and it did not matter when they arrived in Talinn as long as they got there in the afternoon

Take your pick.

I'd go for number 2

[georgiapeach]

5 teams left.
Ericka & Brian and who?

 

Could you tell me where in each leg teams visit what country ? and which teams have been eliminated ?

Both the main spoiler thread and the contestant spoiler  threads have a wonderful summary on page 1, thanks to puddin's hard work.

That would be the place to read and catch up around here so you can keep up with the fast moving happenings.

And !!

[apskip]

i was thinking more between the sighting on the 27th and steffie's sighting on the 29th

they were no where to be seen for about a day and a half, which seems a little too tight to fit a whole extra country in there, so nvm...

Flight time between Dubai and Doha is 40min. Dubai to Bahrain is about 1 hour.  Teams would have time to fly there like on the 28th, do tasks, and return to Dubai the next day and fly to Amsterdam, arriving on the 30th.  That would be more logical and it could occur, and for the ferry, there used to be a ferry between both countries.  We seen things like this, travel from one country back to the previous one and travel out there, TAR5 (Egypt-Kenya-Tanzania-Kenya) and TAR14 (Switzerland-Germany-Austria-Germany)

OK, so let's take a look at the maximum time frame for a visit to another Gulf State. It is highly unlikely that after arriving at a restaurant in Dubai teams reached the pit stop immediately afterward. That means that they likely did not start a pit stop before 9am July 28 and have been released around 9pm July 28. Then they would be free to get to Doha or Bahrain. Let's look at the flights possiblities that night:

to Doha - DXB DOH QR157 2315 2359  or  IC998 0005 0050  or  GF518 0140 0230

to Bahrain - DXB BAH GF565 2215 2230  or  GF509 2340 2355  or  EK835 0230 0245

So teams can get to either place from Dubai without huge delays. Let's assume that they could finish tasks and start a pit stop by 9am July 29. That would mean a 9pm July 28 release from the pit stop. They could then fly back to DXB on July 30 from:

Doha QR102 0035 0240  or  QR104 0220 0425  or  EK849 0345 0545 
Bahrain GF520 0130 0400  or EK836 0320 0500

In either case, there is ample time on July 30 for connection in Dubai International Airport to Amsetrdam on nonstop KL430 0710 1210.

However, this chain of potential reasoning gets a kick in the butt by the sighting of teams by Steffi Sunrise at a Dubai hotel on the morning of July 29. How could that happen if teams have to be in Doha or Bahrain at that time? Obviously, it couldn't. If you believe that sighting (I do) and in the law of physics that says individuals cannot be in two different places at the same time (I do), then the inescapable conclusion is that a leg in Doha or Bahrain could not have happened in the necessary time frame.

[Dånooky]

I've stumbled on some info that there may be a kayaking task in the Prague area tomorrow.  Don't want to be too specific because I  TAR and don't want to mess up our race!

SPEC: Could that be in Cesky Krumlov?