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AR14 Timelines, Timetables and Flight Information

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Neobie:
We've previously established that Beijing II was not a 36h Pit Stop. Here's why I think it was 12h and no more.
(Might be useful when we start guessing the arrival times for Beijing II.)

The following analysis assumes:
- It takes at least 5min to complete a leg.
- Pit Stops are never less than 12h.
- LaKisha/Jennifer are not hours behind in Beijing I.

Finding the earliest possible time the final leg starts:
1. If the Guilin Pit Stop is not shortened, Beijing I takes place on the 19th.
2. Kisha/Jen are still racing after sunset at 4.59pm.
3. Checking in after that time means a Beijing II start after 4.59am on the 20th.
4. Beijing II has to end after 5.04am (more likely around midday though).
5. Final leg begins after 5.04pm on the 20th.

Regarding the Beijing II Pit Stop:
6. Jaime/Cara/Margie/Luke catch CA925 (0930-1350) the next day to Tokyo.
7. There are no better flights between 5.04pm on the 20th and 9.30am on the 21st.
8. A Pit Stop delay can't help Phil get ahead, and may even cause de-bunching.
9. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be a time extension at the Beijing II Pit Stop.

apskip:

--- Quote from: Neobie on April 24, 2009, 11:43:28 PM ---We've previously established that Beijing II was not a 36h Pit Stop. Here's why I think it was 12h and no more.
(Might be useful when we start guessing the arrival times for Beijing II.)

The following analysis assumes:
- It takes at least 5min to complete a leg.
- Pit Stops are never less than 12h.
- LaKisha/Jennifer are not hours behind in Beijing I.

Finding the earliest possible time the final leg starts:
1. If the Guilin Pit Stop is not shortened, Beijing I takes place on the 19th.
2. Kisha/Jen are still racing after sunset at 4.59pm.
3. Checking in after that time means a Beijing II start after 4.59am on the 20th.
4. Beijing II has to end after 5.04am (more likely around midday though).
5. Final leg begins after 5.04pm on the 20th.

Regarding the Beijing II Pit Stop:
6. Jaime/Cara/Margie/Luke catch CA925 (0930-1350) the next day to Tokyo.
7. There are no better flights between 5.04pm on the 20th and 9.30am on the 21st.
8. A Pit Stop delay can't help Phil get ahead, and may even cause de-bunching.
9. Therefore, it is unlikely that there will be a time extension at the Beijing II Pit Stop.

--- End quote ---

Neobie:

Let's start with one of your fundamental premises: "Pitstops are never less than 12 hours."  What happened with the pit stop after the second Moscow leg in AR13? It was at most 7 hours. World Race Productions makes thing fit, even if it means breaking their usual policies. 12 hours or more pit stops is a policy, not a law of the Amazing Race. However, I will be assuming that it is at least 12 hours and see if that works.

Your 5 minute minimum leg time assumption is of course as absurb as you meant it to be. Without a FAST FORWARD, leg completion times are seldom less than 90 minutes for the fastest legs. I will use 2 hours as the minimum in this analysis.

So here is my attempt at making things fit, assuming there is no TBC:
1. We start with the fact that there must be leg 10 on Nov. 19, leg 11 on Nov. 20 and leg 12 starting Nov. 21, all in the Beijing area once the flight from Guilin happens. The departure from PEK must be no later than 1800 and most likely will be a morning flight because WRP always wants the earliest possible arrival to the finish line city(or in this case island).Those flights are:

JL780 0825 1255
NH956 0830 1300
NW30 0900 1340
CA925 0925 1355

2. In order to get a 825am departure, there should be about a leg completion time of 630pm on Nov. 20 with a 12 hour pit stop. Assume at least 2 hours for a leg and you get 430pm or earlier as the beginning of leg 11.

3. Now assume another 12 hour pit stop in front of that and you get a leg 10 completion time of earlier than 430pm on Nov. 19.

4. That means that all teams must be on one of the two morning flights from Guilin to Beijing:
CZ3281 0900 1125
CA6312 1145 1435

With a minimum 2 hour leg time, the latter is barely possible, so I believe that all teams will be on CZ3281.

5. In order to make it for a 9am departure, teams will have to be released from the Guilin pitstop before 7am on Nov. 19. that appears to be easy, as all should have completed leg 9 before noon.

I think I will modify the Timeline as needed to conform to this analysis.

Neobie:

--- Quote from: apskip on April 25, 2009, 08:38:25 AM ---2. In order to get a 825am departure, there should be about a leg completion time of 630pm on Nov. 20 with a 12 hour pit stop. Assume at least 2 hours for a leg and you get 430am or earlier as the beginning of leg 11.
--- End quote ---

Aah, I think you added 12 hours accidentally there! You mean 4.30pm or earlier as the beginning of Leg 11, don't you?


--- Quote from: apskip on April 25, 2009, 08:38:25 AM ---Let's start with one of your fundamental premises: "Pitstops are never less than 12 hours."  What happened with the pit stop after the second Moscow leg in AR13? It was at most 7 hours. World Race Productions makes thing fit, even if it means breaking their usual policies. 12 more or mroe pit stops is a policy, not a law of the Amazing Race. However, I will be assuming that it is at least 12 hours and see if that works.
--- End quote ---

Darn, you might be right! Ken and Tina were released at 3.30am. Don't think it was as short as 7h (3.30am - 7h = 8.30pm), but maybe something like a 9 to 11h Pit Stop to make sure they catch the 7.05am flight to Portland? (According to Robyn they arrived between 4.30pm and 6.30pm.)

Looks like a "desperate measures for desperate times" kind of thing. (Can you imagine Nick/Starr racing with only Dandrew in the finals?) Would they break the "policy" only for final legs? This flexibility they're giving themselves is gonna hurt our calculations!


Back to Beijing, we know that Phil couldn't catch JL782/JO72 (1530-0930) on the 20th, which would have got him to Hawaii one day ahead. The Pit Stop's got to be in the afternoon or night of the 20th.

apskip:
Neobie, we cannot absolutely say that Phil after his Nov. 20 probably early afternoon pit stop could not catch  CA421 PEK NRT 1640 2100 and make a connection to JO72 NRT HNL 2200 (half hour later than you show) 1000+1. What I can say is that a 60 minute connection in Narita is very tight.

georgiapeach:

--- Quote from: apskip on April 26, 2009, 07:07:17 AM ---Neobie, we cannot absolutely say that Phil after his Nov. 20 probably early afternoon pit stop could not catch  CA421 PEK NRT 1640 2100 and make a connection to JO72 NRT HNL 2200 (half hour later than you show) 1000+1. What I can say is that a 60 minute connection in Narita is very tight.

--- End quote ---

Why can't we absolutely say that? We already KNOW that Phil is seen in Tokyo (Narita) airport on 11/21 sometime after CA925/NH5702 0930-1350 landed.


CA 925 details:

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