Topic: The Amazing Race 14 Speculation on Spoilers

[littlewop]

I don't think we were saying you implied that, LW, it just got us to thinking again. With no episode this week, we have a lot of time to speculate.

Tell me about the speculation...I'm going crazy.  I am in a fantasy game, and my pick for winner is Tammy & Victor...so I just keep hoping the spoilers are wrong for that reason...LOL
                                       

[TARAsia Fan]

Just read what we've written since your last post.

[Zack.]

What if the converse is true (probably not, but humor me)? Couldn't T/V be in the F3, but M/L and C/J be decoys? Mark/Mel went to sequester so it's a good chance that 5th and 4th are decoys. And from what I've heard in prior seasons, decoys fly together/travel together (TARAS had the Chas, U/J and Guido on one flight, TAR12 had the Goths and Az/Hendi together in Japan).

Though I think it's more likely that the three we saw are our final three (and that there's probably bunching involved at some point).

[apskip]

That bunching is not going to occur in Honolulu as flights to Kahului, Maui are about 3 every hour. It has to happen if at all (and it always does for an Amazing Race finale unless a team is way behind) in Tokyo-Narita airport since doing it in Beijing does not accomplish much unless it is again done in Narita.

[Zack.]

That bunching is not going to occur in Honolulu as flights to Kahului, Maui are about 3 every hour. It has to happen if at all (and it always does for an Amazing Race finale unless a team is way behind) in Tokyo-Narita airport since doing it in Beijing does not accomplish much unless it is again done in Narita.

There could always be bunching within Honolulu (a RI with hours of operation) to make sure all the teams are on even footing (especially considering that there isn't an intermediate destination and that East Asia - Hawaii is well connected compared to other finale legs (Moscow - Portland for example). Given that the teams are slated to arrive in Honolulu in the morning, I don't think this is entirely out of the question (plus it allows for the teams to be together heading to Maui).

[apskip]

zackattack308,

With the continuous schedule of flights to Kahului (actually only sometimes 3 per hour; it averages 2), teams can leave from 520am until 940pm from HNL to Kauhului. Why would they go anywhere outside the airport where they could have been spotted?

There is a possibility I have discovered. It is flights to Maui-Kapala airport, a much less busy one. There are only four 30 minute flights on Saturdays(like Nov.22):
0700
0950
1135
1645

If they went there then all teams could be bunched on HA3852 the 0950 flight arriving 1022. Since that allows for a more orderly transfer of cameras, sound equipment, etc., it does had some sense vs. the pell-mell rush to the next Kahului flight.

[Kiwi Jay]

Cara and Jamie were with camera's! On camera. I dont think they were decoys!

[georgiapeach]

Cara and Jamie were with camera's! On camera. I dont think they were decoys!

Decoys are filmed too, kiwi., so you can't use that to judge.

zackattack308,

With the continuous schedule of flights to Kahului (actually only sometimes 3 per hour; it averages 2), teams can leave from 520am until 940pm from HNL to Kauhului. Why would they go anywhere outside the airport where they could have been spotted?

There is a possibility I have discovered. It is flights to Maui-Kapala airport, a much less busy one. There are only four 30 minute flights on Saturdays(like Nov.22):
0700
0950
1135
1645

If they went there then all teams could be bunched on HA3852 the 0950 flight arriving 1022. Since that allows for a more orderly transfer of cameras, sound equipment, etc., it does had some sense vs. the pell-mell rush to the next Kahului flight.

Which airport is closer to the known Pitstop??  I know there will be things in between, but maybe that will help??

I keep thinking of AllStars when they used the helicopters (charter) not scheduled flights...

[Belle Book]

What if the converse is true (probably not, but humor me)? Couldn't T/V be in the F3, but M/L and C/J be decoys? Mark/Mel went to sequester so it's a good chance that 5th and 4th are decoys. And from what I've heard in prior seasons, decoys fly together/travel together (TARAS had the Chas, U/J and Guido on one flight, TAR12 had the Goths and Az/Hendi together in Japan).

Though I think it's more likely that the three we saw are our final three (and that there's probably bunching involved at some point).

I think that Cara & Jamie and Margie & Luke are two of the final 3 at least.  Why would their alliance be featured so much if something didn't come out of it?  Tammy & Victor may be a decoy but may not be.

BTW, it was Mel & Mike, not Mark, that went to sequester.

Belle Book

[apskip]

Cara and Jamie were with camera's! On camera. I dont think they were decoys!

Decoys are filmed too, kiwi., so you can't use that to judge.

zackattack308,

With the continuous schedule of flights to Kahului (actually only sometimes 3 per hour; it averages 2), teams can leave from 520am until 940pm from HNL to Kauhului. Why would they go anywhere outside the airport where they could have been spotted?

There is a possibility I have discovered. It is flights to Maui-Kapalua airport, a much less busy one. There are only four 30 minute flights on Saturdays(like Nov.22):
0700
0950
1135
1645

If they went there then all teams could be bunched on HA3852 the 0950 flight arriving 1022. Since that allows for a more orderly transfer of cameras, sound equipment, etc., it does had some sense vs. the pell-mell rush to the next Kahului flight.

Which airport is closer to the known Pitstop??  I know there will be things in between, but maybe that will help??

I keep thinking of AllStars when they used the helicopters (charter) not scheduled flights...

There is no contest here, although I don't know how relevant this is due to the way that finale tend to have many interesting tasks.  The distance from Kahului aiport to Wailuku, which is very close to the Kapili golf course, is 6 miles. The distance from Kapalua (note the correction of my earlier spelling error)airport to Wailuku is 33 miles.

[DrRox]

I am hoping, like you apskip, that they have to ride the bicycles down the volcano.....before going to Pit Stop.

[apskip]

Dr. Rox,
When I was there at Haleakala  National Park, going down into the volcano was only by foot. The 37 mile bicycle ride is along the outside edge of the volcano.

[DrRox]

Dr. Rox,
When I was there at Haleakala  National Park, going down into the volcano was only by foot. The 37 mile bicycle ride is along the outside edge of the volcano.

I don't think I said or even implied that the bicycle ride was "inside" the volcano. The bicycle ride is down the "outside" of the volcano, as you well know.

[TARAsia Fan]

Although inside the volcano during an eruption might be cool.

[Snooky]

Although inside the volcano during an eruption might be cool.

Then they wouldn't air this season!
 

[Hooky]

Although inside the volcano during an eruption might be cool.

Then they wouldn't air this season!
 

  , CBS!

[DrRox]

The National Park Service has had a moratorium on letting commerical bicycle companies use the Haleakala summit at the 10,000 foot level for a year and a half. All the commerical companies have to start at the 6,500 foot level outside the park. Private bicycling from the summit is still allowed. There were just too many deaths in too short a period time. At the time they filmed TAR14, this moratorium was in place. How that would affect TAR, I dont know. IF TAR used one of these companies, it would still leave about a 20 mile bicycle ride, which I would think would be plenty for a TAR task.

[amazing_hey]

I am guessing J/C will U-TURN T/V if they get ahead of them in china~
If that really happen, J/C/M/L can be named U-turn alliance~

[Ashe]

I am guessing J/C will U-TURN T/V if they get ahead of them in china~
If that really happen, J/C/M/L can be named U-turn alliance~

I won't be surprised at all if that happens.  Remember Margie and Jaime's confessionals saying they don't think they can trust Victor?  I do have a feeling that's gonna be addressed again, possibly on the first Beijing leg, and that it'll be one of the main reasons Jaime & Cara U-Turn Tammy & Victor (since Margie & Luke can't, having used theirs already on Amanda & Kris).  That, and them being a generally strong team, of course.

[Ruth]

^^ Yeah, I won't be surprised too, if that happens. And if the U-turn is on an elimination leg, perhaps Tammy and Victor are really going out at fourth.

[Hooky]

^^ Yeah, I won't be surprised too, if that happens. And if the U-turn is on an elimination leg, perhaps Tammy and Victor are really going out at fourth.

Perhaps this will be one of the few times a team makes the right decision with the Yields/U-turns! That would be interesting to watch!

[Ashe]

^^ Yeah, I won't be surprised too, if that happens. And if the U-turn is on an elimination leg, perhaps Tammy and Victor are really going out at fourth.

No, I think it'll be on the first Beijing leg, an NEL, and then Tammy & Victor may get Speed Bumped out of the race on the final elimination leg, the second Beijing leg.

Unless, of course, I'm completely wrong and Tammy & Victor totally run the table the entire rest of the race and make this season as big of an anticlimax as TAR13 turned out to be.

[Belle Book]

^^ Yeah, I won't be surprised too, if that happens. And if the U-turn is on an elimination leg, perhaps Tammy and Victor are really going out at fourth.

Perhaps this will be one of the few times a team makes the right decision with the Yields/U-turns! That would be interesting to watch!

Well, Margie & Luke also made the right decision with the U-Turn, but yeah it would also be a time when a team made the right decision if Cara & Jamie used it on Tammy & Victor.

And incidentally, I agree with Ashe that Cara & Jamie will U-Turn Tammy & Victor on the non-elimination leg, while the Speed Bump ultimately takes the brother & sister out of the race (kind of like what happened in my Fantasy Amazing Race when Heather & Karen U-Turned Dylan & Jason, although my episode was a TBC leg and didn't have the Speed Bump).

Belle Book

[Ashe]

^^ Yeah, I won't be surprised too, if that happens. And if the U-turn is on an elimination leg, perhaps Tammy and Victor are really going out at fourth.

Perhaps this will be one of the few times a team makes the right decision with the Yields/U-turns! That would be interesting to watch!

Well, Margie & Luke also made the right decision with the U-Turn, but yeah it would also be a time when a team made the right decision if Cara & Jamie used it on Tammy & Victor.

And incidentally, I agree with Ashe that Cara & Jamie will U-Turn Tammy & Victor on the non-elimination leg, while the Speed Bump ultimately takes the brother & sister out of the race (kind of like what happened in my Fantasy Amazing Race when Heather & Karen U-Turned Dylan & Jason, although my episode was a TBC leg and didn't have the Speed Bump).

Belle Book

That was only speculation, though.  I admit I could totally be wrong, though I could see what I threw out there actually happening.

[Snooky]

I somehow think that Tammy and Victor will overcome the u-turn (If it comes to pass).  Unless they are on an later flight.