Damn, I didn't realize, I would be typing this much (and as you can tell my spelling and grammer, suck).
Now obviously there are other factors such as scrambling for flights (see Russia Leg and the leg going to Sicily), and this season has what seems like a larger number of luck based tasks, so a team could be doing really well and just run out of luck, or a team could be doing okay or poorly and find great luck. But we see this every season on the Amazing Race and its just as big of factor, as fatigue, navigation, and task skills.
Also an upfront addendum (well actual this is the third part so maybe its not upfront), I know episode 3 and 4 are one leg. But for the purpose of this I treat it as two (for two reasons, it really is two legs it has all the tasks and its two separate episode, if it aired together as one episode I probably would count it as one).
But here is a list of how the teams have ended at the Pit Stops
Eric and Jeremy 1,2 ,1(1st part of double leg), 1 (final part of double leg), 2, 1, 1, and 4th.
BJ and Tyler 2, 1, 4 (1st part of double leg), 2 (final part of double leg), 1, 2, 5, 5th.
Fran and Barry 8, 9, 5 (1st part of double leg), 4 (final part of double leg), 4, 4, 4, 1
Mojo 6, 3, 8 (first part of double leg), 6 (final part of double leg), 3, 3, 2, 2
Ray and Yolanda 7, 5, 3 (first part of double leg), 7 (final part of double leg), 7, 6, 3, 3,
Lake and Michelle 5, 7, 2 (first part of double leg), 3 (Final part of double leg), 5, 5, 6 (and eliminated)
Dave and Lori 4, 4, 9 (first part of double leg), 5 (final part of double leg), 6, 7 (eliminated)
Dani and Danielle 9, 8, 6 (first part of Double leg), 8 (final part of double leg), 8 (eliminated and Yielded)
Wanda and Desiree 3, 6, 7 (first part of Double leg), 9 (final part of double leg and eliminated)
Lisa and Joni 11, 10 (eliminated)
John and Scott 12 (eliminated)
Now out of the all the teams who managed to finish the route faster:
Eric and Jeremy 4th, 3rd, 1st (part one of double leg), 2cd (final part of double leg), 4th, 1st, 1st (FF used), 4th
Hippies 2cd, 2cd, 4th (first part of double leg), 5th (2cd part of double leg), 5th, 2cd, 5th, 5th
Fran and Barry 9th, 9th, 5th (first part of double leg), 1st (final part of double leg), 2cd, 5th, 4th, 1st
Mojo 3rd, 6th, 8th (first part of double leg), 4th (final part of double leg), 1st, 6th, 2cd, 2cd
Ray and Yolanda 7th, 7th, 3rd (first part of double leg), 7th (final part of double leg), 6th, th, 3rd, 3rd
Lake and Michelle 1st, 4th, 2cd (first part of double leg), 6th (final part of double leg), 3rd, 3rd, 6th
Dave and Lori 6th, 1st, 9th (first part of double leg), 3rd (final part of double leg), 7th, 7th
Dani and Danielle 10th, 5th, 6th (first part of double leg), 8th (final part of double leg), 8th
Wanda and Desiree 5th, 8th, 7th (first part of double leg), 9th
Lisa and Joni 8th, 10th
John and Scott 11th
From this only one team has managed to race legs in the top 4 every round and that is the Frat boys Eric and Jeremy, they have also raced 3 of the legs fastest (though that included s fast forward).
The Hippies average either a strong 2cd place or 5th, with only one episode where they were 4th. Eric and Jeremy have really excelled at almost every leg. The only real poor showing they have had (this last week) was do to navigation errors (at that has been one of their strong suits), so did they just get cocky? Is Fatigue getting to them? Personally I think the first at all cost mentality really hurt them this episode more then any other. This will be their biggest time difference between them and the fastest leg out of all the races (probably 3 of them put together).
Fran and Barry have been all over the place, with two legs in 9th and two 1st place legs. Fran and Barry tend to be stronger on legs that they navigate on (though the leg in Greece was not a good one for them, but it was worse for two other teams)
Mojo is another team that is inconsistent. Going from 1st on one leg, to as high 8th on a different leg.
Ray and Yolanda best ranking as been 3rd place on a leg (both in final standing and how long it takes them to perform a leg without equalizers.
Based on this, I just can't see how Ray and Yolanda are going to be around much longer. The next leg also doesn't appear to play into Fran and Barry's personal navigation strengths. I think just on time to complete The Hippies and the Frats should do well.