That is a very interesting theory. I'm inclined to disagree with it, if only because I have to think TAR is a far more expensive show to produce than BB, which is currently on their service. Ad revenues would be incredibly smaller on the service, which would make a more expensive show like TAR tougher. But like you say, if they are serious about getting their All Access service more subscribers, that would be a start.
I don't share the opinion that they want
all their reality shows on the service though, the main reason being that Survivor is still among the networks highest rated shows, so it won't be leaving their airwaves anytime soon.
I kind of agree that if TAR gets sent to the service, it might be a one and done burnoff of an already filmed season.