Following Episode 13: Aubry wins a vote for Sole Survivor in a final two pairing against any of her three opponents. She certainly has Joe and Neal's vote. She does not have Debbie's. By way of her competitiveness at challenges and her overall gameplay, she has earned the respect of Jason, Scot, and Nick. And, unlike the other three castaways, she was always pitted against them (based upon the Brawn and Beauty's original plan to take out the Brains before Neal's evacuation), so they do not view her votes to eliminate them as much of a betrayal as Cydney, Michele, and Tai's. Julia's vote for or against Aubry is hard to predict, as would the votes of whichever two of the final four are added to the jury. However, it seems like a lock that Aubry would earn at least five votes, which is a majority. She also can make a solid case that she overcame great obstacles in losing her closest allies in Neal and Joe and still persevering in the game by sustaining good relationships with Cydney, Michelle, and Tai, which was exemplified in this episode by how she repaired her relationship with Tai to the point where he would have sided with her at the next vote, if it had been held, even though he would have been better served to eliminate her. Aubry is the Sole Survivor if she can survive the next two tribal councils, but she probably needs to win at least one immunity challenge along the way, which might be a tough task when considering Cydney and Michele's recent performances in challenges. If there is a tie involving her at the final four that cannot be settled, which is quite possible considering her and Tai vs. Cydney and Michelle, the rock draw would immunize the two who received votes, making the one without the immunity necklace who did not receive votes vulnerable, and that person probably would change his or her vote to Aubry rather than accept an automatic elimination. So Aubry must further solidify an alliance with either Cydney or Michele in case she does not win immunity. She seems capable of doing it.
Likelihood of a final two vs. a final three: With Joe removed from the competition on Day 34 and four castaways entering the season finale episode, it is a near certainty that there will be a final two instead of a final three, since a final three would mean only one tribal council for elimination before the final tribal council to vote for the Sole Survivor, which would be a deviation from the traditional format of the season finale episode. Also, there would be a six-day lapse between the previous tribal council (Day 32, Jason's elimination) and the final tribal council for elimination (Day 38), which seems incongruous and unfair to the jurors who would have only attended six tribal councils leading up to the final tribal council to vote for the Sole Survivor.
