Topic: TAR 27 Speculation and Discussion of **SPOILERS**

[BritishTARFan]

Here's what I have right now, based on the awesome work on the preview and cross-referencing Oval's tracker:
Kelly/Shevonne make it to Rio de Janeiro (seen in Copacabana)
Alex/Adam make it to Buenos Aires (seen in Rio de Janeiro Airport)
Ernest/Jin make it to San Antonio de Areco (seen at Pit Stop)
Jazmine/Danielle make it to Victoria Falls (seen at Sao Paulo Airport)
Cindy/Rick make it to Paris (seen at Johannesburg Airport)
Kelsey/Joey make it to Krakow (seen at Schindler's Factory)
Logan/Chris make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Denise/James Earl make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Tanner/Josh make it to India (seen with winter melons)
Justin/Diana make it to India (seen running with kids)
Tiffany/Krista make it to Hong Kong (seen at Tsimshatsui)

Barring any weirdness like double eliminations, this means that the 1st NEL must happen in or before Zimbabwe (Leg 5), and the 2nd NEL must happen in or before the Hague (Leg 7).

There might be a way to calculate the chances of each team, but the only one I have right now is for Kelly/Shevonne, who have a just a 20% chance of surviving Leg 1 (with a well-placed NEL in Rio de Janeiro) and a 5% chance of making it past Leg 4.

The Paris leg is a Kor also Cindy & Rick are seen doing the Container Port challenge which is most likely in Rotterdam meaning they probably make it to Leg 7

[Neobie]

I think that's Kelsey/Joey at the simulator, but yes I forgot Phil's clue in his pocket!

The first non-elimination must still be in Zimbabwe or before, and we have a KOR in Paris. I'm thinking the last non-elimination would be in the second half of the race?

[north09]

I think that's Kelsey/Joey at the simulator, but yes I forgot Phil's clue in his pocket!

The first non-elimination must still be in Zimbabwe or before, and we have a KOR in Paris. I'm thinking the last non-elimination would be in the second half of the race?

Knowing there were a reported seven teams safe at the end of Leg 05 (a confirmed elimination leg) I would place our first NEL in Zambia (Leg 04). The next one would be the KOR in Paris. And then I'm speculating on another on Leg 09.

[Neobie]

Ah, that makes calculations easier! Here's some random mathematics:

There's a 31% chance that the first 6 boots will go in this order:
Kelly/Shevonne, Alex/Adam, Ernest/Jin, Jazmine/Danielle, Cindy/Rick, Kelsey/Joey
And a 14% chance that it'd be this slight variation:
Kelly/Shevonne, Alex/Adam, Jazmine/Danielle, Ernest/Jin, Cindy/Rick, Kelsey/Joey

Purely from a statistical point of view, here are the chances of each team winning the million dollars:
Kelly/Shevonne, Alex/Adam, Ernest/Jin, Jazmine/Danielle: 0%
Cindy/Rick: 1%
Kelsey/Joey: 5%
Tanner/Josh, Logan/Chris, Denise/James Earl, Justin/Diana: 17% each
Tiffany/Krista: 26%

[fossil-racer]

Based on the Intros from 18-26
Speculated top teams
Tanner and Josh were placed 1st in the intro. This spot had a team that won before but never a last place team. Common team placements in this spot are 4th and 6th place.
Logan and Chris were placed 2nd in the intro. This spot had a team that won before but never a last place team. Common team placements for this spot are 1st and 5th.
Denise and James were placed 3rd in the intro. This spot had a winning team and an 11th place team. Common placements in this spot are 6th and 11th.
Justin and Diane were place 5th in the intro. This spot never had a winning team and had a 11th place team. Common placements are 7th and 10th.
Tiffany and Krista were placed last. This spot never had a winning team and had a 11th place team. Common placements are 2nd which happened 3 times before.

Based on the intro, if it means anything , I speculate Tiffany and Krista are not the winners.  The other 4 are all in the air.

[Lemontail]

But at least we can enjoy this season, and based on twitter, Tiffany & Krista looked very excited about the race.

[claude_24hrs]

Posted this from locations thread:

Leg 1: United States > Brazil
Leg 2: Brazil > Argentina
Leg 3: Argentina
Leg 4: Argentina > Zambia
Leg 5: Zambia > Zimbabwe
Leg 6: Zimbabwe > France
Leg 7: France > The Netherlands
Leg 8: The Netherlands > Poland
Leg 9: Poland > India
Leg 10: India
Leg 11: India > China
Leg 12: China > United States

So... only two double legs?!

Just to review back in the press release, there is only one India leg, and Macau and Hong Kong as separate legs.

Leg 1: Los Angeles, USA > Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Leg 2: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil > Buenos Aires, Argentina
Leg 3: Buenos Aires, Argentina > San Antonio de Areco, Argentina
Leg 4: San Antonio de Areco, Argentina > Victoria Falls, Zambia
Leg 5: Victoria Falls, Zambia > Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe
Leg 6: Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe > Paris, France
Leg 7: Paris, France > Rotterdam, Netherlands (featuring The Hague)
Leg 8: Rotterdam, Netherlands > Krakow, Poland
Leg 9: Krakow, Poland > Agra, India
Leg 10: Agra, India > Macau, China
Leg 11: Macau, China > Hong Kong, China
Leg 12: Hong Kong, China > Long Island, New York, USA

[georgiapeach]

Provide the Link to the press release please? And show us what it says exactly? Otherwise it is impossible to eval what you are saying. Thanks!

[claude_24hrs]

Press release link: http://www.people.com/article/amazing-race-season-27-route-sneak-peek

[georgiapeach]

Here is the official CBS release that People was quoting.

The 11 destinations for the new season of THE AMAZING RACE are announced and
include Agra, India; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Hong Kong/Macau, China; Krakow,
Poland; Long Island, New York; Paris, France; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; San
Antonio de Areco, Argentina; and Victoria Falls Zambia. Plus, for the first
time, the Race visits the country of Zimbabwe and the city of Rotterdam,
Netherlands. The 11 new teams will depart from Venice Beach, Calif. and travel
to their first destination, Rio de Janeiro, where they’ll immediately encounter
a potentially game changing fast forward. Along the route, teams will race
through five continents, 10 countries and more than 34,000 miles. They will
learn a tango with a twist in Buenos Aires, Argentina, drop mics with a French
rapper in Paris, France, partake in a high-flying water show in Macau, China,
and freefall more than 200 feet into the Batoka Gorge and swim with crocodiles
in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. The 27th season of the 10-time Emmy Award-winning
series premieres Friday, Sept. 25 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television
Network. Phil Keoghan (@philkeoghan) is the host.

http://www.cbspressexpress.com/cbs-entertainment/shows/the-amazing-race/releases/view?id=43491
 
No where does it say Hong Kong and Macau are two legs, instead they are grouped together in both releases..
 
And I don't think they say one India leg either, although it very probably may be.
 
Remember too we have photographic evidence of a PitStop Mat in the Hague...and yet that is not mentioned.
 
So I interpret the release differently from you, and that is what makes RFF good...we consider everything!
 
Let's all  careful about stating OPINIONS as FACT when we cannot say with certainty any of that. We need to consider everything, we all know the CBS press releases are frequently inaccurate.

[stunami]

We have NO IDEA where the first NEL is.... it could be on the first leg for all we know...
We have no sighting of the cousins and the brothers in Africa, but maybe one team made it...

Ex:
Leg 1: Elimination, TNZ are out
Leg 2: Non-Elimination
Leg 3: One of the M/M (except Josh/Tanner) is out
Leg 4: The other M/M or Danielle and Jasmine is out
Leg 5: We know this is EL, 8 becomes 7, so the survivor of Leg 4 is out here, we know the final 7

[BritishTARFan]

Just an overview of possible and definite tasks!

Leg 1:

Fast Forward ( Task Unknown )
Detour ( Footvolley or Tiles )
Possible hangliding

Leg 2:

Detour? ( Collecting Rubbish )
Tango with a twist
Possible polo task

Leg 3:

Detour? Carrying a wooden horse
Maybe switchback to meat fest from S7

Leg 4:

Roadblock? ( Bungee jump )
Getting blessing from tribe ( Tiffany & Krista Preview ) ( Could be leg 5 )
Ultra light over Victoria Falls

Leg 5:

Rafting across the Zambezi river
Roadblock? Jump into Batoka Gorge
Detour ( Crocodiles or lion encounter )

Leg 6:

Roadblock? ( Doing a plane coarse? )
Possible food task involving big platters
Dropping mikes with a rapper

Leg 7:

Detour? Ship container task

Leg 8:

Task involving a piano
Roadblock or intersection in the Jewish quarter
Carrying things in The Wieliczka salt mine

Leg 9:

Detour? Transporting Winter Melons

Leg 10:

Leg 11:

Roadblock? ( High flying Water Show in Macau )

Leg 12:

Helicopter Ride
Task involving crabs

[georgiapeach]

Don't forget that the TIMELINE has a task summary with links as well. 

[fossil-racer]

So leg 8? was a non-elim
And leg 9? had a U-Turn

Looks like a single U-Turn and has been used too

Great job Candi Lee

[Candi Lee2]

yw so happy to be able to finally share , Market in photos .... Raja ki Mandi, Agra, Uttar Pradesh confirmed
https://www.google.com/maps/@27.1926277,77.9993692,935m/data=!3m1!1e3

[claude_24hrs]

Here's what I have right now, based on the awesome work on the preview and cross-referencing Oval's tracker:
Kelly/Shevonne make it to Rio de Janeiro (seen in Copacabana)
Alex/Adam make it to Buenos Aires (seen in Rio de Janeiro Airport)
Ernest/Jin make it to San Antonio de Areco (seen at Pit Stop)
Jazmine/Danielle make it to Victoria Falls (seen at Sao Paulo Airport)
Cindy/Rick make it to Paris (seen at Johannesburg Airport)
Kelsey/Joey make it to Krakow (seen at Schindler's Factory)
Logan/Chris make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Denise/James Earl make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Tanner/Josh make it to India (seen with winter melons)
Justin/Diana make it to India (seen running with kids)
Tiffany/Krista make it to Hong Kong (seen at Tsimshatsui)

Barring any weirdness like double eliminations, this means that the 1st NEL must happen in or before Zimbabwe (Leg 5), and the 2nd NEL must happen in or before the Hague (Leg 7).

There might be a way to calculate the chances of each team, but the only one I have right now is for Kelly/Shevonne, who have a just a 20% chance of surviving Leg 1 (with a well-placed NEL in Rio de Janeiro) and a 5% chance of making it past Leg 4.

So, let's get with the latest update as Candi posted in the live tweets thread:

Leg 1: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - Kelly/Shevonne eliminated
Leg 2: Buenos Aires, Argentina - Alex/Adam possibly eliminated
Leg 3: San Antonio de Areco, Argentina - Ernest/Jin eliminated and last seen in a gaucho challenge
Leg 4: Victoria Falls, Zambia - NEL
Leg 5: Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe - Possible double U-Turn; F8 elimination: Jazmine/Danielle eliminated
Leg 6: Paris, France - KOR
Leg 7: Rotterdam, Netherlands; F7 elimination: Cindy/Rick eliminated
Leg 8: Krakow, Poland - NEL
Leg 9: Agra, India - U-Turn confirmed at Raja Ka Mindi, plus Pit Stop also confirmed at Taj Mahal; F6 elimination: either one of Kelsey/Joey, Logan/Chris, Justin/Diana, Tanner/Josh or Denise/James Earl eliminated, Kelsey/Joey make it to India
Leg 10: Possibly Hong Kong - F5 elimination: either one of Kelsey/Joey, Logan/Chris, Justin/Diana, Tanner/Josh or Denise/James Earl eliminated
Leg 11: Hong Kong/Macau - Tiffany/Krista make it to Tsim Sha Tsui; F4 elimination: either one of Kelsey/Joey, Logan/Chris, Justin/Diana, Tanner/Josh or Denise/James Earl eliminated
Leg 12: Long Island, New York - Standard F3 race

[cbacbacba1]

Here's what I have right now, based on the awesome work on the preview and cross-referencing Oval's tracker:
Kelly/Shevonne make it to Rio de Janeiro (seen in Copacabana)
Alex/Adam make it to Buenos Aires (seen in Rio de Janeiro Airport)
Ernest/Jin make it to San Antonio de Areco (seen at Pit Stop)
Jazmine/Danielle make it to Victoria Falls (seen at Sao Paulo Airport)
Cindy/Rick make it to Paris (seen at Johannesburg Airport)
Kelsey/Joey make it to Krakow (seen at Schindler's Factory)
Logan/Chris make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Denise/James Earl make it to India (seen at Krakow Airport)
Tanner/Josh make it to India (seen with winter melons)
Justin/Diana make it to India (seen running with kids)
Tiffany/Krista make it to Hong Kong (seen at Tsimshatsui)

Barring any weirdness like double eliminations, this means that the 1st NEL must happen in or before Zimbabwe (Leg 5), and the 2nd NEL must happen in or before the Hague (Leg 7).

There might be a way to calculate the chances of each team, but the only one I have right now is for Kelly/Shevonne, who have a just a 20% chance of surviving Leg 1 (with a well-placed NEL in Rio de Janeiro) and a 5% chance of making it past Leg 4.

So, let's get with the latest update as Candi posted in the live tweets thread:

Leg 1: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - Kelly/Shevonne eliminated
Leg 2: Buenos Aires, Argentina - Alex/Adam possibly eliminated
Leg 3: San Antonio de Areco, Argentina - Ernest/Jin Lao eliminated and last seen in a gaucho challenge
Leg 4: Victoria Falls, Zambia - NEL
Leg 5: Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe - Possible double U-Turn; F8 elimination: Jazmine/Danielle eliminated
Leg 6: Paris, France - KOR
Leg 7: Rotterdam, Netherlands; F7 elimination: Cindy/Rick eliminated
Leg 8: Krakow, Poland - NEL
Leg 9: Agra, India - U-Turn confirmed at Raja Ka Mindi, plus Pit Stop also confirmed at Taj Mahal; F6 elimination: either one of Kelsey/Joey, Logan/Chris, Justin/Diana, Tanner/Josh or Denise/James Earl eliminated, Kelsey/Joey make it to India
Leg 10: Possibly Macau - F5 elimination: either one of Kelsey/Joey, Logan/Chris, Justin/Diana, Tanner/Josh or Denise/James Earl eliminated
Leg 11: Hong Kong - Tiffany/Krista make it to Tsim Sha Tsui; possible F4 elimination - either one of Kelsey/Joey, Logan/Chris, Justin/Diana, Tanner/Josh or Denise/James Earl eliminated
Leg 12: Long Island, New York - Possibly a regular F3 race

we have no idea where the last nel is placed, as well as the location of Leg 10
it could also be like this way
Leg 8 > F6 Elimination
Leg 9 > F5 Elimination (with u-turn)
Leg 10 > F4 NEL
Leg 11 > F4 Elimination

I don't think there are two separate legs for Hong Kong and macau too
I tend to believe Leg 10 is the second India leg as there was like report seeing teams arriving in Hong Kong airport in 13/7 (?)

  Raja ki Mandi, Agra, Uttar Pradesh,

I think this is a single u-turn as the board is smaller than the W-turn board shown in the season preview
and yes, it is used

[bottle]

Poland must be NEL because all of final 6 are seen at least en route to india including kelsey and joey 

[I ♥ TAR]

Kelsey and Joe are in F4, I think. That woman jumping in Macau looks like her.

[bottle]

I think that's Kelsey jumping down too.
By the way do you guys think these might be the new way of how the teams names are written?
http://prntscr.com/8j8618

[Slowhatch]

The "drop mic" task (I had to look that up) is (presumably) on a boat at the eastern end of Ile de la Cite (viewpoint).

[Slowhatch]

For a few frames in "brain surgery" you can see a bit of a mill sail. I'd guess the team is standing next to the museum--in fact, probably here.

[mikelee]

Nevermind. Please delete this comment lol. My bad.

[Slowhatch]

I believe that was a pre-race interview at South Coast Botanic Gardens--see here.

[mikelee]

Haha. I didn't do my research, just jumped the gun.