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Chances Of...

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apskip:
sunnyca, I am not following your mathematical logic. In order for a F/F to have half the probability of either a M/F or M/M team of winning the race, for 11 teams with 2 F/F teams the proabilities are 10% for each of 9 teams and 5% for each of 2 teams, giving a total probability of 100%. Your numbers do not add up to 100%, which is essential in such an analysis.

sunnyca:
sorry! i'm not making myself clear, probably because i'm a bit confused about it myself. but here's another try:

--- Quote from: apskip on August 25, 2008, 07:25:23 PM ---In order for a F/F to have half the probability of either a M/F or M/M team of winning the race
--- End quote ---
This is the part I was talking about. Instead of assuming that a F/F team has 50% of the probability of a M/F team, is it possible to calculate some sort of ability scale based on the finishing positions of the F/F vs M/F teams? For example, if we assign teams scores in reverse order of finishing position, in TAR12, Ari & Stella (M/F) get 1 while TK & Rach (M/F) get 11 & so on:
Then the 3 F/F teams get 2, 3, 5 for an average of 3.33 and the 7 M/F teams get 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 for an average of 6.7 - so the F/F teams were 6.7/3.3 = 0.5 times as good as the M/F - so in this case your 50% assumption is dead on!
But in TAR11, it was F/F = 9.5, M/F=5.16 and M/M=8, so the all-female teams were way better.
In TAR10, it was F/F 7.3, M/F 7.0, M/M 6.5 -pretty close but the F/F teams did better.
I think if we average over all 12 seasons, this might reflect the "ability" of the F/F teams better. I'm still afraid that the F/F teams might do better overall than the M/F teams, which means they're way underperforming relative to the M/F and M/Ms in terms of actually winning!

 

sunnyca:

--- Quote from: TARAsia Fan on August 25, 2008, 12:30:57 PM ---It's already happened with Zabrina and Joe Jer in the Amazing Race Asia. They were the first all-female team to win any edition of the race so it is possible.

For the US version, the Beauty Queens had the best shot and almost won All-Stars. I do think it's possible. It will have to take some effort, but I do think if the race casts a strong all-female team (and I don't mean physically) like the BQ's, I think it will happen.

The Southern Belles don't look like that team, but you never know.

--- End quote ---
they have been casting pretty strong f/f teams in the last 3 US races TAR 10, 11, 12 - at least in terms of finishes. the three before that - TAR 6, 7, 9 were pretty dismal (though people seem to think that lena/kristy was robbed).
and the f/f teams in TAR 4 & 5 did pretty well too - i think if Tian had had a better partner, she might have had a very good shot that year - at least made the final 3 for sure - she had to do some of the toughest tasks in india.  and of course the bowling moms were incredible, but did anyone seriously think they would win it all? and there you have the crux of the matter - when you looked at the teams at the beginning of the season (like we are now), did you ever think of any f/f team, ok, this team look like they're pretty strong- they could win this one? other than the BQs (well actually, even them - but BEFORE the race started airing?). for me, the one time i thought that was debbie/bianca in TAR7, especially since they started in Latin America. but i was cruelly let down..

apskip:
Last night before RFF ate my post as a result of timing out while I was posting, I completed an anlysis of each Amazing Race according to the sunnyca point system. I normalized the results by dividing to get the average score for F/F teams and for other (M/F and M/M) teams. They showed pretty much what you already know per  the snippets cited by sunnyca above. The only seasons where F/F teams ahead on that score were AR11, AR10, and AR5. AR4 was close but no cigar. Here is the points summary:

AR1 - Emily/Nancy 7, Pat and Brenda 3, Kim and Leslie 2 out of 11
AR2 - Peach/Mary 6, Peggy/claire 3, Deidre/Hilary 1 of 11
AR3 - Heather/Eve 4, Gina/Sylvia 1 of 12
AR4 - Tian/Jaree 7, Monica/Sheree 6 of 12
AR5 - Linda/Karen 8, Kami/Karli 7, Charla/Mirna 6 of 11
AR6 - Lena/Kristy 3, Meredith/Maria 2 of 11
AR7 - Debbie/bianca 3, Megan/Heidi 2 of 11
AR8 - Not Applicable
AR9 - Dani/Danielle 4, Wanda/Desiree 3, Joni/Lisa 2 of 11
AR10 - Dustin/Kandace 10, Lyn/Karlyn 9, Kelli/Jamie 2 of 11
AR11 - Dustin/Kandace 10, Charla/Mirna 9 of 11
AR12 - Shana/Jennifer 5, Marianna/Julia 3, Kate/Pat 2 of 11

Mandoli:
As much as the stats are confusing me, those are amazing. Thanks, gang. :)

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