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Archive => RFF Archived Boards => The Amazing Race 18 Spoilers and Speculation => Topic started by: theschnauzers on December 19, 2010, 03:40:47 PM

Title: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on December 19, 2010, 03:40:47 PM

This actually proved useful for TAR All-Stars (11), so I thought I would distill out the placement averages of the TAR:UB teams in their original seasons.

It'll be interesting to see whether as many teams average approximately the same as was the case in TARAS. I have no idea whether that will be the case or not.

What each column represents, then, is this: (A) Original season and Finish Order; (B ) Team; (C ) Original Season Placements divided by Original Season Legs; (D) Original Season Placement Average; (E) Ranking Among the 190 Teams from seasons 1 through 17.

16-02 Jet/Cord      31/12   2.5833    (13 of 190) 14-03 Margie/Luke   33/12   2.7500[/color] (18 of 190) 15-04 Flight Time/Big Easy   34/11   3.0909 (31 of 190) 12-02 Ronald/Christina    38/11   3.4545 (47 of 190) 14-06 Mel/Mike       25/7   3.5714 (50 of 190) 12-05 Kynt/Vyxsin      29/8   3.6250 (52 of 190) 14-02 Cara/Jaime      47/12   3.9166 (62 of 190) 14-04 Kisha/Jen      47/11   4.2727 (76 of 190) 14-08 Amanda/Kris      18/4   4.5000 (82 of 190) 17-06 Gary-Mallory       37/8   4.6250 (86 of 190) 15-09 Zev/Justin      24/4   6.0000 (133 of 190)

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: Kiwi Jay on December 19, 2010, 04:00:04 PM

Considering, Amanda and Kris 9th finished 11th, Mel and Mike 5th finished 10th and Jamie and Cara 7th finished 9th, and Gary and Mallory appear to have made it further than 7th I think it isn't as perfect and obvious as TAR11

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on December 19, 2010, 05:15:30 PM

Remember its not just the order of finish, but their average placement getting there.

And please note how closely bunched most of the teams are in their original season averages. That may be an indication of a much closer Race, as 17 was, and as 11 often was, than having a few dominant teams. (We really don't have much of an idea of how UB finished out after what, the two legs in China?)

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: Jobby on December 20, 2010, 08:42:41 AM

With the exception of Zev and Justin, the others were really close...

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: DrRox on December 20, 2010, 08:49:48 AM

Quote from: Kiwi Jay on December 19, 2010, 04:00:04 PM

Considering, Amanda and Kris 9th finished 11th, Mel and Mike 5th finished 10th and Jamie and Cara 7th finished 9th, and Gary and Mallory appear to have made it further than 7th I think it isn't as perfect and obvious as TAR11

I think Amanda/Kris were 8th...........no? 

11th  -  Peston/Jennifer
10th  -  Steve/Linda
9th    -  Brad/Victoria
8th   -   Amanda/Kris

???????

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: Jobby on December 23, 2010, 08:47:41 PM

I think he meant 9th on the overall placing list! :cmas16

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on December 23, 2010, 09:28:10 PM

As I was trying to explain before, given the close spread of ten of the teams looking at their averages from their original seasons, I'm not sure one can predict the order of finish, as such. What I want to see is how close teams' averages are compared to their original season.  That is not a function of the order of elimination as such, merely the average of their performance at the time they are eliminated.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: DrRox on January 13, 2011, 10:39:15 AM

I keep looking at the numbers and think what an outlier Zev/Justin's averages are. I know you have to do it this way, but they actually finished 1st on the leg they were eliminated. As we all know, they were eliminated because of the lost passport. Too bad there is not some way you could use the 1st place finish and still have them be eliminated. I am sure they would move way up. It would be, to me, more indicative of their true racing skills...but I do understand how/why you do it the way you do it.

Toni/Dallas, to me, were eliminated more because they lost all their money and had to walk and beg money. They really did come in last and were eliminated. The lost passport just cemented their elimination.

Anyway....I am sure glad you keep all these statistics.  They really do show patterns and tendencies.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: georgiapeach on January 13, 2011, 11:01:19 AM

They were forced to walk because production did not have permission to film in the subways after a certain time, so they were not able to use that, although they could have afforded it I believe.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: DrRox on January 13, 2011, 11:43:15 AM

I guess what I really meant was that there were other factors affecting Toni/Dallas's placement/elimination that day, besides losing Dallas's passport. The only thing that affected Zev/Justin's placement/elimination was Justin losing Zev's passport.

I have absolutely no problem with the_schnauzers methodology. I just think in this one instance, it masks Zev/Justin's racing skills.

He has them at 24/6 = 6.0000 for average placement. Since they did finish first, if you corrected it to 16/4 = 4.0000 and then statistically, they fit more inline with the other teams. I got the 16/4 by subtracting the 9 he gave them by being the 9th team on their last leg and eliminated and added 1 for finishing 1st on that leg.

This is just a very rare instance. They were not eliminated for coming in last. They were eliminated for losing Zev's passport. They were placed last for losing the passport. This probably doesn't make sense to anyone but me......lol

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on January 13, 2011, 12:51:34 PM

Here's an example of the problems this gets into with what ifs.  The Globetrotters in that same season could be argued that they were eliminated due to the 4-hour penalty for not completing the roadblock.  Even assuming that's true, what placement would they have had not only in that leg, but the leg for the final three that followed?

And you'd almost would have to answer that to address a comparison not only between those two teams (both of whom were cast in TAR:UB), but with the other returning teams, and make adjustments for any of the teams that might have had a change in placements for a leg due to penalties.

Now I'll repeat what I said before. This is not a tool to predict order of finish in TAR:UB. What I hope to see is whether prior performance of most of the teams in terms of average placement can be roughly predicted for individual teams. There was some of that in TARAS, but even there it got crazy because of the one hybrid team that did win it all, and if you only looked at Eric's past performance, was potentially predictable. What I think it proved is that Zach carrying Flo to a win was not a fluke; Race performance could well be determined by the abilities of the stronger teammate in some instances. That neither helps determines average placement nor placement order, but it does suggest an element for "Racer Mechanics," which I know I posted in a thread here at some point in 2009.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: Jobby on January 14, 2011, 11:15:12 PM

But from this cast, it is kind of obvious that the cowboys and the globetrotters had a better edge. They were racing against other alpha-male teams or all-male teams in the previous season they were on and had a more competitive race they needed to keep up with, as compared to teams like Margie and Luke and Ronald and Christina.. who although made the finale, but had no threat of a fit all-male team competitor along the entire race. I wouldn't count Mel and Mike or Nicholas and Don as fit all-male teams... and the other teams that raced along them towards the end (Final 4) are all-female or co-ed teams.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on January 15, 2011, 12:50:26 PM

I'll repeat what I said before.
These statistics are not useful in predicting order of finish. They may indicate a team's average placement over the course of the Race.

One way to see this is to go back and look at the primary list in the "Ranking The Teams" thread. Look at the order of finish listed with each team. You will see that many second-place teams on average out-performed the winners, and some winners were out-performed by teams that did not make the final three.

So, you are raising an argument of interpretation, and you are free to do that if you wish, but do not make the assumption that the averages for the teams on TAR:UB from their original seasons are predicting the order of finish. I've not made that claim and given how close in those placement averages almost all the teams are, I don't see how that is likely to even happen.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on January 30, 2011, 12:47:44 AM

As we're getting close to the premiere of TAR 18:UB,  with no real further spoiler information on team placement than we had when filming was finished. So this is what I'm planning to do.

The primary ranking thread will be used to track each team's placement average, and the trends each week, and if it make sense at the time, to try to project the likely final three basis on the objective range of potential outcomes (as I did for TAR 16). This thread will be used to compare each team's average placement in TAR:UB with their average placement in their original season. As I mentioned above, I want to see how much of a difference teams actually average this time around compared to the first time for each team.

(I even have the source information handy so I could even do a comparison to the same week of their original season, but there could be a problem if a team lasts longer this time than they did in their original season. :) Think about it, it'll come to you soon enough.)

Since we already know about the TBC in the first leg, that leg will be treated for the purposes of ranking as two legs, with the TBC point as the point to rank the teams after leg 1A. No different than the rankings do with the other TBC legs. (I still like calling them uberlegs, since I was the one who came up with that one during TAR 6.)

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: DrRox on March 14, 2011, 11:13:50 PM

Bump

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: Jobby on March 15, 2011, 09:01:00 AM

Quote from: theschnauzers on December 19, 2010, 03:40:47 PM

This actually proved useful for TAR All-Stars (11), so I thought I would distill out the placement averages of the TAR:UB teams in their original seasons.

It'll be interesting to see whether as many teams average approximately the same as was the case in TARAS. I have no idea whether that will be the case or not.

What each column represents, then, is this: (A) Original season and Finish Order; (B ) Team; (C ) Original Season Placements divided by Original Season Legs; (D) Original Season Placement Average; (E) Ranking Among the 190 Teams from seasons 1 through 17.

16-02 Jet/Cord      31/12   2.5833    (13 of 190) 14-03 Margie/Luke   33/12   2.7500[/color] (18 of 190) 15-04 Flight Time/Big Easy   34/11   3.0909 (31 of 190) 12-02 Ronald/Christina    38/11   3.4545 (47 of 190) 14-06 Mel/Mike       25/7   3.5714 (50 of 190) 12-05 Kynt/Vyxsin      29/8   3.6250 (52 of 190) 14-02 Cara/Jaime      47/12   3.9166 (62 of 190) 14-04 Kisha/Jen      47/11   4.2727 (76 of 190) 14-08 Amanda/Kris      18/4   4.5000 (82 of 190) 17-06 Gary-Mallory       37/8   4.6250 (86 of 190) 15-09 Zev/Justin      24/4   6.0000 (133 of 190)

They are also ironically, the two teams with the best averages.

And Kisha and Jen is third in terms of averages. :lol:

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on March 15, 2011, 06:52:37 PM

I've had some RL things to deal with, and haven't gotten the posts ready yet. I expect to have more by the weekend.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on March 19, 2011, 10:51:48 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 4 Legs:

Team.........................................This Leg (4)......Difference

15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.5000..........+ 2.5000
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.7500..........+ 0.8750
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.0000.........+ 0.2727
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.5000.......- 1.4091
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke...................5.2500........- 2.5000
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................5.5000........-2.9167
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina..............6.2500........-2.7955
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime....................7.5000........-3.5834
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................8.2500........-4.6250


14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris................6.5000(Eliminated) -2.0000
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike.....................7.5000(Eliminated) -3.9286


A positive value is an improved placement average compared to a team's original season; a negative value is an lesser placement average compared to a team's original season.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on March 21, 2011, 04:10:38 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 5 Legs:
Compares original final placement with current placement
Team.........................................This Leg (5)......Difference

15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................4.4000..........+ 1.6000
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.4000..........+ 1.2750
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.0000..........+ 0.2727
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.8000..........- 1.7091
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke...................4.8000..........- 2.0500
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.6000..........- 2.0167
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina..............6.4000..........- 2.9455
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................7.6000..........- 3.9750

14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime.................7.8000 (Eliminated) -3.8834
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris................6.5000 (Eliminated) -2.0000
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike...................7.5000 (Eliminated) -3.9286


The key is that the closer the team is to their final placement of their original season, the smaller the value of the difference. A "+" is an improvement over the original season; a "-" is a deterioration over the original season.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on March 30, 2011, 10:47:23 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:
Compares original final placement with current placement
Team.........................................This Leg (6)......Difference
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.0000............+ 1.6250
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................4.3333............+ 1.6666
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.3333............- 0.0606
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.1666............- 1.5833
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........5.1666............- 2.0757
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina..............5.8333............- 2.3788
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................7.1666............- 3.5416

14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke................5.3333 (Eliminated) -2.5833
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime.................7.8000 (Eliminated) -3.8834
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris................6.5000 (Eliminated) -2.0000
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike...................7.5000 (Eliminated) -3.9286


I should have mentioned last week that the remaining teams are listed in the range of best improved to most decreased average placements of their current average placement compared to their final placement of that team's original season. We may well see some movement after the next leg, given the placement trends (posted in the main Ranking the Teams thread).

So far only Kisha and Jen have been extremely close to their average of their original seasons, but most of the teams are within two placements of their original average at the half-way point.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on April 11, 2011, 11:43:17 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:
Compares original final placement with current placement
Team.........................................This Leg (7)......Difference
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................4.0000............+ 2.0000
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.1428............+ 1.4822
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.1428............+ 0.1299
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.5714............- 1.4805
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.2857............- 1.7024
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................7.0000............- 3.3750

12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina...........6.0000 (Eliminated) -2.5456
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke................5.3333 (Eliminated) -2.5833
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime.................7.8000 (Eliminated) -3.8834
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris................6.5000 (Eliminated) -2.0000
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike...................7.5000 (Eliminated) -3.9286

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on April 18, 2011, 03:57:49 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 6 Legs:
Compares original final placement with current placement
Team.........................................This Leg (8 )......Difference
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.6250............+ 2.3750
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.5000............+ 1.1250
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................4.1250............+ 0.1477
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.2500............- 1.1591
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.3750............- 1.7917
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................6.5000............- 2.8750

12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina...........6.0000 (Eliminated) -2.5456
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke................5.3333 (Eliminated) -2.5833
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime.................7.8000 (Eliminated) -3.8834
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris................6.5000 (Eliminated) -2.0000
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike...................7.5000 (Eliminated) -3.9286

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on April 28, 2011, 07:29:17 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 9 Legs:
Compares original final placement with current placement
Team.........................................This Leg (9)......Difference
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.3333............+ 2.6666
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Malloy...................3.5555............+ 1.0695
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................3.8888............+ 0.3839
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.3333............- 1.2424
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................6.1111............- 2.4861

16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord...................4.5555 (Eliminated) -1.9722
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina...........6.0000 (Eliminated) -2.5456
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke................5.3333 (Eliminated) -2.5833
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime.................7.8000 (Eliminated) -3.8834
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris................6.5000 (Eliminated) -2.0000
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike...................7.5000 (Eliminated) -3.9286

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: DrRox on April 29, 2011, 12:24:26 AM

Well it is nice to see Zev/Justin living up to my pre race prediction.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on May 03, 2011, 06:19:38 PM

Leaderboard Trends After 10 Legs:
Compares original final placement with current placement
Team.........................................This Leg (10)......Difference
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.4000............+ 2.6000
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Mallory..................3.5000............+ 1.1250
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................3.7000............+ 0.5757
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........4.0000............- 0.9091

12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin................6.0000 (Eliminated) -2.3750
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord...................4.5555 (Eliminated) -1.9722
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina...........6.0000 (Eliminated) -2.5456
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke................5.3333 (Eliminated) -2.5833
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime.................7.8000 (Eliminated) -3.8834
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris................6.5000 (Eliminated) -2.0000
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike...................7.5000 (Eliminated) -3.9286

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on May 17, 2011, 02:53:13 PM

Here's the final comparison of teams performance in TAR:UB from each team's original season, for what it's worth:

If you see anything significant, please share:


Final Season Placement Averages:
Compares original final placement with current placement
Team......................................TAR 18 Average.......Difference
14-04 4.2727    Kisha-Jen.....................3.3333............+ 0.9394
15-04 3.0909    Flight Time-Big Easy..........3.7500............- 0.6591
17-06 4.6250    Gary-Mallory..................3.2500............+ 1.3750
15-09 6.0000    Zev-Justin ...................3.4545............+ 2.5455
12-05 3.6250    Kent-Vyxsin...................6.0000............ -2.3750
16-02 2.5833    Jet-Cord......................4.5555............ -1.9722
12-02 3.4545    Ronald-Christina..............6.0000............ -2.5456
14-03 2.7500    Margie-Luke...................5.3333............ -2.5833
14-02 3.9166    Cara-Jaime....................7.8000............ -3.8834
14-06 3.5714    Mel-Mike......................7.5000............ -3.9286
14-08 4.5000    Amanda-Kris...................6.5000............ -2.0000

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: Jobby on May 17, 2011, 08:12:14 PM

I like the fact that the 4 teams with the best average made the finale.. truly Allstars worthy. However.. if only Zev/Justin made the finale and not Globetrotters, that would be perfect.

Gary and Mallory came in with the second worst average and went out with the best average this season. Something that I wouldn't expected or even thought of. I thought they were going to be back-packers and not make the final three and when they actually did, it pleased me more than anything else and it didn't even matter if they did not win because they've done evne better than what people have expected them to achieve.

Anyway, Amanda and Kris got eliminated first so they should be last on that list.. even if they had a better average than Mel and Mike, lol.

Title: Re: Ranking the Teams of TAR: Unfinished Business
Post by: theschnauzers on May 18, 2011, 10:00:41 PM

Order fixed.