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Archive => RFF Archived Boards => The Amazing Race 12 Archive => Topic started by: apskip on October 19, 2007, 01:01:06 PM

Title: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on October 19, 2007, 01:01:06 PM
Changes resulting from episode 3 have been incorporated into this latest Timeline:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345 OR BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355
OR SNN LHR EI372 0845 1005 connecting with BA434 LHR AMS 1135 1350

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 1141 0850 1005; 1241 0930 1045; 8233 1210 1330; 1641 1340 1455
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop

4. 14 or 15 Bingo to OUA by road.
either fly OUA ABJ 2J 322 0800 0930 or VU815  1440 1610
or fly OUA BKO 2J 338 1345 1505
or something within Burkina Faso
for all options, end in TBC since it didn't happen for leg 3

15 OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1

5. 16 CDG to FLR AF5038 0720 0915 or one of 5 later flights CDG FLR
 
6. 18 REST DAY
There is newly revived thinking that says that the arrival must be on July 19. If so, then here are 3 different ways to get teams there:

18 FLR MXP AZ1695 1725 1815
MXP ZAG AZ544 2100 2230, with overnight in the Zagreb airport area, then
19 ZAG DVB OU660 0930 1025

19 FLR VIE OS536  0700 0930
VIE DBV OS721 1315 1425

19 FLR FRA LH4067  0655 0840
FRA ZAG  OU417  0930 1050
ZAG DBV OU662  1445 1540
This corresponds better with the sighted arrival of the several teams.

7. 20 DBV to VNO OU418 0700 0900 LH 3252 1100 1400  OR X3 418 0945 1145 BT224 1325 1630

8. 22 VNO to FRA TE420 1130 1300
FRA DEL LH760 1345 1225 +1
23 DEL JDH IC471 1310 1400  (Note: due to the tightness of this, I expect backup with a charter flight)
Jodhpur to Jaisalmer 3 hours minimum by road

9. 24 Jaisalmer to Jodhpur leave by noon for 3 hours minimum by road
IC472 JDH DEL 1825 1920
25 AI314 DEL KIX 2315 1235+1

10. Osaka tasks afternoon and evening of 25th
 
11. 26 KIX TPE EG211 1035 1220   or  CX565 1115 1310
Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then leg in Taipei with TBC to avoid having to go below 3 teams
 28 TPE to ANC CI11 0345 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)
FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

Title: Re: The Amazing Race 12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on October 19, 2007, 01:24:09 PM
I split your post apskips and I hope you don't mind but, I was just thinking  :umn:  that we need a separate thread to discuss the timeline.

(thanks to Slowhatch)
Littman:
*"The countries are very exotic," Littman says.
*"We're going to a couple of places that I don't even know where they are on the map. I've had to go look them up."
*The show will will do two fewer episodes and drop the noneliminations to create more excitement.
not confirmed:
**Filming start date was the last week in June in Los Angeles area. Cast and crews left via airplanes between aprox. July 2-3rd
**...originally filming was set to start in another start on July 7th
georgiapeach (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,12520.msg207871.html#msg207871) confirms:
I have been informed that TAR 12 completed filming on or before August 3 -- and yes, I trust this information 100%.

more thoughts on this later
Title: Re: The Amazing Race 12 Location Spoilers/Rumors
Post by: georgiapeach on October 19, 2007, 01:27:10 PM
puddin and I were also trying to sort this out and coming up with much the same...

If we are only having 11 legs we have a problem--but mybe TPTB changed their minds? :lol:

A couple of comments:

I feel pretty comfortable in saying Belize was NOT a location: see here: http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,12521.msg234069.html#msg234069

And Frankfurt has just been identified as TARA 2 and not TAR12 ...

It is always possible that our starting tip re the dates is wrong--and they started a couple of days later, but I do NOT believe LA was the originating city.  But if we assume only one location (start city and first task city) prior to the LAX flight to Ireland, that may help the timeline.

Could Girdwood be the final city? Maybe....but it works so much better from what we know of the tasks there  if that is the next-to-last city.

I would still suspect one other location between BF and Dubrovnik, although I am hoping for NOT Europe and dsomewhere more exotic.

I agree with the need for 2 locations between Dubrovnik and Girdwood.

So now what?? More ideas? I vote for more legs! :lol3: :pull


Title: Re: The Amazing Race 12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on October 19, 2007, 01:33:34 PM
peach and I were going over this last night and came up with a scenario~

For the timeline to work out, I think my source was guessing here and with good reason that I can't reveal. Anyway we're leaning towards the 7th/8th (http://forums.televisionwithoutpity.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=2666383&view=findpost&p=8681781) as the start per Wamgirl (http://forums.televisionwithoutpity.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=2666383&view=findpost&p=8663903)
Quote
To add some more details to my TAR spotting in July...We were in the international terminal in LAX on July 8, 2007, at 2 pm PST. I have no idea what airline they were flying or when, but I assume they had awhile, because they weren't flying out of one of the immediate gates around us, and they were wandering around other areas looking for guidebooks and people who would trade euros with them. They did spend a lot of time across the way with a college kid who had a laptop and they were looking things up on it. I was just out of earshot though, so couldn't overhear anything. That's all I have...sorry

per puddin   ;D
Quote
not confirmed:
**Filming start date was the last week in June in Los Angeles area. Cast and crews left via airplanes between aprox. July 2-3rd
**...originally filming was set to start in another start on July 7th
 
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on October 19, 2007, 02:25:45 PM
I still think there is one more city before LAX with a departure date July 3-5...but that's pure speculation.

But after exhaustive work, I can tell you that kogs, Slowhatch and I have found NO evidence that the teams were ever in LA itself--so I still think they were coming from another location and transiting LAX only.

And so far I can also pretty much say that the teams did not use Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Baltimore,  or Boston airports either.

The "other" start may have been a smokescreen and that may have been for Boston. There was a huge surge of spoiler info for Boston in early July with some reservations/car arrangements actually made and cancelled. There is however,  absolutely NO permit evidence for Boston or the highways around the airport. I think this was purely a smokescreen for the actual start city.


While I have not ruled out O'Hare, Chicago itself has also been ruled out.

Note again that (for example) Boston refers ONLY to Boston proper, and does not rule other outlying towns--and the same for all the other locations mentioned.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: gingerman28 on October 20, 2007, 09:20:34 AM
I want to offer this updated approximate timeline of AR12 from what is known right now:

July 2 or 3 departure from U.S., maybe to someplace in Latin America, maybe direct to Belize City

July 5 in Belize City

July 6-7 somewhere in Latin America

July 8 in Los Angeles International Airport for flight to Ireland

July 10 fly Dublin to Amsterdam


July 13 fly CDG to Ouagadougou

July 14-18 UNKNOWN

July 18 to 20 Dubrovnik

July 20 don't know but suspect Vilnius, Lithuania

July 22 to 29 UNKNOWN

July 29 Girdwood, Alaska

August ? Final city in lower 48

Now, the most interesting thing about the above is that 9 places are already identified or their geography and rough time is bounded. If you believe public statements made by CBS, there will be 11 elimination points maximum if there are 13 teams starting AR12. What happens to the other time? do they take a week off before continuing to Alaksa? What do you think?

July 14 - 18 Unknown.  But could be taken up with a stop in Prague or Romania before going on to Dubrovnik.  (By the way a wonderful place to spend more than a few hours, in fact the entire coast of Croatia is a must see for you all one of these days.) 

The other big gap - July 22 to 29 - allows time for teams to proceed somewhere into Asia before continuing on to Alaska.

Agree that LAX is just a transition point between Mexico and Ireland.

There still is that possibility that all the teams were sent individually to some place in Mexico or Central America for the start city.  We have found no evidence yet of any filming at any US airport for a start.  This certainly would keep the peepers at bay and would add a new twist to the old tried and true TAR.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on October 21, 2007, 05:22:56 PM
My latest timeline incorporating my speculations indicated in that thread:

July 3 U.S. to Lima or Iquitos OR U.S. to Belize City

July 5 Lima or Iquitos to Belize City OR Belize City to Lima Iquitos

July 8 Lima or Iquitos or Belize City to Los Angeles

July 8 Los Angeles to Dublin

July 10 Dublin to Amsterdam

July 13 Amsterdam to Paris-CDG to Ouagadougou

July 15 Ouagadougou to Dakar

July 17 Dakar to Dubrovnik(arriving July 18)

July 20 Dubrovnik to Odessa, Ukraine

July 22 Odessa, Ukraine to one of the following Russian cities: Rostov or Krasnodar/Sochi

July 24 Rostov or Krasnodar/Sochi  to Addis Ababa

July 26 Addis Ababa to Arusha, Tanzania

July 28 Arusha, Tanzania to Girdwood Alaska(arriving July 29)

August 1 Final U.S. City

Please note that this has an AR12 with 13 pistops like they traditionally have, not the 11 indicated by CBS (unless they have 15 teams starting).

LATER EDIT: I modified the Russian cities after I learned from intense map work that Baku is in Azeerbaijan, Sevastopol is in Ukraine(but would not be chosen over Odessa), and Sochi has a fabulous once-a-week nonstop flight to Dubai that fits the timetable. Sochi and Krasnodar are only 100 road miles apart, so it would be feasible to fly into Krasnodar and fly out of Sochi. The point is to use cities in southern European Russia.

This Timeline is based on my SPECULATION thread entry. All of the caveats that go with that about whether Mr. Van Vuure's resume is historical or referring to AR12 only also apply to this Timeline.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kiwi Jay on October 21, 2007, 10:02:06 PM
My latest timeline incorporating my speculations indicated in that thread:

July 3 U.S. to Lima or Iquitos OR U.S. to Belize City

July 5 Lima or Iquitos to Belize City OR Belize City to Lima Iquitos

July 8 Lima or Iquitos or Belize City to Los Angeles

July 8 Los Angeles to Dublin

July 10 Dublin to Amsterdam

July 13 Amsterdam to Paris-CDG to Ouagadougou

July 15 Ouagadougou to Dakar

July 17 Dakar to Dubrovnik(arriving July 18)

July 20 Dubrovnik to Odessa, Ukraine

July 22 Odessa, Ukraine to one of the following Russian cities: Sevastopol, Rostov, Baku

July 24 Sevastopol or Rostov or Baku to Addis Ababa

July 26 Addis Ababa to Arusha, Tanzania

July 28 Arusha, Tanzania to Girdwood Alaska(arriving July 29)

August 1 Final U.S. City

Please note that this has an AR12 with 13 pistops like they traditionally have, not the 11 indicated by CBS (unless they have 15 teams starting).


Well done
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on October 22, 2007, 10:32:15 PM
I am adding to the real (incomplete)  timeline, not the speculative one, this flight info from Dubrovnik to Vilnius:

OU418 departs Dubrovnik 0730 arrives Frankfurt 0925, connects with LH3252 departs Frankfurt 1100 arrives Vilnius 1400

or

x35441 departs Dubrovnik 0915 arrives Munich 1050, connects with BT224 departs Munich 1325 arrives Vilnius 1630
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on October 24, 2007, 10:10:19 AM
My latest flight info combined with timeline thinking:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230  OR EI125 1300 to 1345

2. 10 DUB to AMS EI602 0602 to 0845  OR  EI 610 1720 to 1955 (Note: if EI610 then the next leg is not possible as indicated)

3. 11 AMS to VNO (Vilnius, Lithuania) TE411 1010 to 1325

4. 13 VNO to CDG TE470 0735 to 0925 (note: if they miss this they will have to wait 24 hours for the next flight CDG to OUA)
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF730  1640 to 1940

5. 15 OUA to ?

6. 18 ? to DBV

7. 20 DBV to ?

8. 23 ? to ?

9. 25 ? to KIX (Osaka)

10. 27 KIX to TPE (Taipei) choice of EG211 1035 1220, CX565 1115 1319, BT2131 1310 1450, Ci157 1315 1505, NW69 2000 2155, EG217 2040 2225

11. 29 TPE to ANC CI12 1715 0905 (July 29 after crossing the International Date Line)

12. Aug. 1 ANC to Final City USA(note: may actually depart late evening of July 31)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mushpants on October 27, 2007, 03:22:27 AM
July 14-18 UNKNOWN-ITALY
Italy,Lithuania,Ireland,Croatia,Netherlands have all been confirmed along with Japan and Burkina Faso, Taiwen, Alaska is the only country not confirmed
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on October 27, 2007, 07:35:59 AM
mushpants, you are wrong about Italy and Alaska. Italy has not been confirmed. Just because there is an icon of Florence on screencaps and it's proven lgistically feasible to get there and from there does not mean that Florence is in this Race. Also, Alaska is totally confirmed. See the relevant information provided by GeorgiaPeach way back in I believe the Spoiler thread. Newbies are expected to read all the AR12 threads from about July 1 so they have the same information base as the rest of us.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on October 27, 2007, 10:01:24 AM
Mushpants  we all know that there is a lot to remember here!  :reading: One of the easiest and BEST ways to either catch up or to confirm something (I have to go there all the time too) is to read through  puddin's spoiler summary (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,12520.0.html) located at the very front of the Amazing Race 12 Spoiler section--it has everything we all need!

And as Apskip said--Alaska (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,12521.msg225211.html#msg225211) is definitely confirmed--probably the best documented confirmation we have ever had....
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on October 27, 2007, 12:58:27 PM
July 14-18 UNKNOWN-ITALY
Italy,Lithuania,Ireland,Croatia,Netherlands have all been confirmed along with Japan and Burkina Faso, Taiwen, Alaska is the only country not confirmed
mushpants, we do not have a set of rules in this topic and have never needed one so please do not make me even go there. Things are fairly simple here and thats how we like it.
Our work here is not to babysit you and correct the incorrect information which you have stated wrongly in this thread among others.
In the future PLEASE read the threads before posting.
Apskips gives some good advice please abide by it. This  (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,12520.0.html) is a good place to start.

thanks, puddin
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on October 28, 2007, 04:59:48 PM
My latest flight info combined with timeline thinking, after incorporation of the Amsterdam July 11 finding(see CHATEAU's analysis in Episode 1 thread plus mine in LOCATION SPOILERS/RUMORS):

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345 OR BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 DUB to AMS EI602 0602 to 0845  OR  EI 610 1720 to 1955 (Note: if EI610 then the next leg is not possible as indicated)

3. 13 AMS to CDG AF1411
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF730  1640 to 1940

5. 15 OUA to Tripoli BU756 departs 7/15 1230am arrives 0600
TIP to CDG BU900 departs 0915 arrives 1230
CDG to FLR AF5002 departs 1320 arrives 1520

6. REST DAY around FLORENCE 7/17

6. 18 FLR to FRA LH5067 departs 0715 arrives 0855
FRA to DBV LH2468 departs 1210 arrives 1355
Note: there is one later nonstop FLR to FRA LH4059 1010 1140, but the connection goes FRA ZAG, then ZAG DBV and arrives DBV 1635


7. 20 DBV to VNO OU418 0700 0900 LH 3252 1100 1400  OR X3 418 0945 1145 BT224 1325 1630

8. 23 ? to ?

9. 25 ? to KIX (Osaka)

10. 27 KIX to TPE (Taipei) choice of EG211 1035 1220, CX565 1115 1319, BT2131 1310 1450, Ci157 1315 1505, NW69 2000 2155, EG217 2040 2225

11. 29 TPE to ANC CI12 1715 0905 (July 29 after crossing the International Date Line)

12. Aug. 1 ANC to Final City USA(note: may actually depart late evening of July 31), which is most likely to be Minneapolis, Portland OR, Boston, Washinton DC, Charlotte, Atlanta, Orlando, Detroit, or Houston
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on October 28, 2007, 05:30:58 PM
I have assurances from both Atlanta and Houston airports that no filming permits were issued there which meet our time frame.

And previous assurances from Boston Police that no road permits were issued, FWIW....
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on October 28, 2007, 05:46:41 PM
I call the start line  (http://www.alisonwinston.com/profilepics/holmbyhills/playboy_mansion.jpg) as End City but thats just me and this is the speculation thread.

Nice job apskips!   :yess:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 01, 2007, 07:02:32 PM
1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345 OR BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355
OR SNN LHR EI372 0845 1005 connecting with BA434 LHR AMS 1135 1350

3. 13 AMS to CDG AF1411
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF730  1640 to 1940

5. 15 OUA to UNKNOWN AFRICAN PLACE



6. 17 UNKNOWN AFRICAN PLACE TO Frankfurt(probably)
18 FRA to DBV LH2468 departs 1210 arrives 1355
Note: there is one later nonstop FLR to FRA LH4059 1010 1140, but the connection goes FRA ZAG, then ZAG DBV and arrives DBV 1635


7. 20 DBV to VNO OU418 0700 0900 LH 3252 1100 1400  OR X3 418 0945 1145 BT224 1325 1630

8. 22 VNO to ?

9. 24 ? to KIX (Osaka)

10. 26 KIX to TPE (Taipei) choice of EG211 1035 1220, CX565 1115 1319, BT2131 1310 1450, Ci157 1315 1505, NW69 2000 2155, EG217 2040 2225

11. 28 TPE to ANC CI11 0345 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)
FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE

 EDITOR's NOTE: Leg 2 on July 11 has been modified to use the routing SNN to AMS rather than DUB AMS. Also, a REST DAY on July 23 has been taken out and the departure dates for legs 8, 9, 10 and 11 moved up 1 day accordingly.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 02, 2007, 09:03:38 PM
1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345 OR BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355
OR SNN LHR EI372 0845 1005 connecting with BA434 LHR AMS 1135 1350

3. 13 AMS to CDG AF1411
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF730  1640 to 1940

5. 15 OUA to UNKOWN AFRICAN PLACE



6. UNKNOWN AFRICAN PLACE TO Frankfurt(probably)
FRA to DBV LH2468 departs 1210 arrives 1355
Note: there is one later nonstop FLR to FRA LH4059 1010 1140, but the connection goes FRA ZAG, then ZAG DBV and arrives DBV 1635


7. 20 DBV to VNO OU418 0700 0900 LH 3252 1100 1400  OR X3 418 0945 1145 BT224 1325 1630

8. 22 VNO to ?

9. 24 ? to KIX (Osaka)

10. 26 KIX to TPE (Taipei) choice of EG211 1035 1220, CX565 1115 1319, BT2131 1310 1450, Ci157 1315 1505, NW69 2000 2155, EG217 2040 2225

11. 28 TPE to ANC CI11 0345 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)
FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE

 EDITOR's NOTE: Leg 2 on July 11 has been modified to use the routing SNN to AMS rather than DUB AMS. Also, a REST DAY on July 23 has been taken out and the departure dates for legs 8, 9, 10 and 11 moved up 1 day accordingly.

OH BOY! Look At THIS ONE!

AOL article: http://television.aol.com/feature/amazing-race-12-preview

"After 12 seasons, you don't want the contestants to go into the race thinking, 'I know what's next,'" said co-executive producer Elise Doganieri. The show will crisscross the world, from Holland to India to Croatia, and head to a few off-the-beaten-track towns that will send viewers grabbing for their globes.


 

Try that on for size apskips  ;D , how does that fit?   :o
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: gingerman28 on November 02, 2007, 09:18:37 PM
BVM said in an interview that the teams visited every continent except Antarctica.  That means the teams may travel to South America (further than Mexico or Belize which are still in North America) after Anchorage and then back up to a final US location for the final mat.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 02, 2007, 10:32:01 PM
GMAN, AR12 could go on a senseless rush down to South America and then across to Australia just to turn a 4 continent race into 6 continents. But who in the audience would care anyway? So why bother? BVM is a Dutchman and they are known for being sensible people. He did not extend the race for 7 days just to add in South America and Australia.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 02, 2007, 10:41:30 PM
G-MAN--the article says MOST not ALL continents....

and this whole 50,000/28 days vs 30,000/21 days is just poor CBS information. They had one thing on the CBS site and one on the first promo so some web monkey just doesn't know what is up.

We have our route now IMO (at least the broad overview) except for the final city--we just have to narrow it down a little more--adjust the order--and play with the timeline--and look! we're all done!   :lol3:  :colealert:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 05, 2007, 06:13:02 AM
With the confirmation from PHIL of 11 legs, there are manay things that are now clear or for which the choices are limited:

1. There will be 8 elimination points, 1 FINISH LINE, and 2 TBCs as predicted. My fearless predicting goes on to guess that the TBCs will come between Burkina Faso and the second African country (Niger in my opinion) and between Taipei and Alaska.

2. The hints about inclusion of FLORENCE are getting too big to ignore. I'm going to find a way to put it back in.

3. Osaka has been shaky, but when I reanalyzed the numbers, it had to stay in to reach 11 legs.

4. Other than that and the exact locations of the Africa country(which I believe to be  Niger and its capital Niamey) and the Indian place (which could be Jaisalmer; I'm going to put it in that way and see how it fits), this TIMELINE is ready for primetime:
 

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345 OR BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355
OR SNN LHR EI372 0845 1005 connecting with BA434 LHR AMS 1135 1350

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 1141 0850 1005; 1241 0930 1045; 8233 1210 1330; 1641 1340 1455
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1640 to 1940 Note: it is possible that teams actually took AF732 that day instead, 1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop

4. 14 or 15 Bingo to OUA by road.
either fly OUA ABJ 2J 322 0800 0930 or VU815  1440 1610
or fly OUA BKO 2J 338 1345 1505
or something within Burkina Faso
for all options, end in TBC since it didn't happen for leg 3

16 late flights from OUA or ABJ or BKO to CDG

5. 17 CDG to FLR AF5038 0720 0915
 
6. 18 FLR to FRA LH4067 0715 0855
FRA to DBV LH2468 1210 1355
Note: there is one later nonstop FLR to FRA LH4059 1010 1140, but the connection goes FRA ZAG, then ZAG DBV and arrives DBV 1635

7. 20 DBV to VNO OU418 0700 0900 LH 3252 1100 1400  OR X3 418 0945 1145 BT224 1325 1630

8. 22 VNO to FRA TE420 1130 1300
FRA DEL LH760 1345 1225 +1
23 DEL JDH IC471 1310 1400  (Note: due to the tightness of this, I expect backup with a charter flight)
Jodhpur to Jaisalmer 3 hours minimum by road

9. 24 Jaisalmer to Jodhpur leave by noon for 3 hours minimum by road
IC472 JDH DEL 1825 1920
25 AI314 DEL KIX 2315 1235+1

10. Osaka tasks afternoon and evening of 25th
 
11. 26 KIX TPE EG211 1035 1220   or  CX565 1115 1310
Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then leg in Taipei with TBC to avoid having to go below 3 teams
 28 TPE to ANC CI11 0345 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)
FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

EDITOR'S NOTE: There have been new changes in Africa and Florence. Examine them.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 13, 2007, 07:39:18 AM
Teams finished up in Amsterdam way ahead of what I expeected to be the schedule. With the pitstop reached late afternoon for most teams, the release from the Amsterdam pitstop will be before 6am July 12 for most teams unless there is an extended 36 hours pitstop. The question now is could World Race Productions have fit in Vilnius or Florence before the late afternoon July 13 flight to Ouagadougou from Paris-CDG that we know teams were on? Let's examine those possibilities:

July 12 AMS CPH SK550  0705 0830
CPH VNO BT162  0935 1205

July 13 VNO CDG  0805 0955

This shows Vilnius is technically feasible but there would be only 8 hours to get in from the airport, do all tasks, get back to the airport, and have checkin and slack time at the airport. I conclude that this did not happen.

July 12 AMS FLR KL3134  1010 1155  or  IG3422 1020 1210

July 13 FLR CDG AF5039  1015 1210   or  AF5041 1305 1500

To me this looks feasible and could have happened. Since we know that Episode 3 is about Africa, it appears that it didn't and the 36 hour extended pitstop did.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 14, 2007, 09:18:53 AM
I think it must have been a 36 hour pit stop, to allow those that did the roadblock to clean up
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 18, 2007, 09:37:45 PM
  :bump   for apskip's latest edit above...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 18, 2007, 10:16:37 PM
We need to do some reevaluating here...

July 13th to Ouagadougou
July 14th leg 1 pitstop
July 15th leg 2 with Pitstop? or TBC?? till AM of 16th
July 16th/17th maybe Florence
 
so then now we need to consider if Lithuania could precede Croatia, IMO.

Our source feels that from what TK/Rachael told her that teams were coming directly from the airport when they arrived in Dubrovnik on July 19th...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 18, 2007, 10:20:29 PM
Maybe they go to India before Croatia and after Africa  :angel: ?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 19, 2007, 08:25:22 AM
Changes resulting from episode 3 have been incorporated into this latest Timeline:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345 OR BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355
OR SNN LHR EI372 0845 1005 connecting with BA434 LHR AMS 1135 1350

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 1141 0850 1005; 1241 0930 1045; 8233 1210 1330; 1641 1340 1455
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop

4. 14 or 15 Bingo to OUA by road.
either fly OUA ABJ 2J 322 0800 0930 or VU815  1440 1610
or fly OUA BKO 2J 338 1345 1505
or something within Burkina Faso
for all options, end in TBC since it didn't happen for leg 3

15 OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1

5. 16 CDG to FLR AF5038 0720 0915 or one of 5 later flights CDG FLR
 
6. 18 REST DAY
There is newly revived thinking that says that the arrival must be on July 19. If so, then here are 3 different ways to get teams there:

18 FLR MXP AZ1695 1725 1815
MXP ZAG AZ544 2100 2230, with overnight in the Zagreb airport area, then
19 ZAG DVB OU660 0930 1025

19 FLR VIE OS536  0700 0930
VIE DBV OS721 1315 1425

19 FLR FRA LH4067  0655 0840
FRA ZAG  OU417  0930 1050
ZAG DBV OU662  1445 1540
This corresponds better with the sighted arrival of the several teams.

7. 20 DBV to VNO OU418 0700 0900 LH 3252 1100 1400  OR X3 418 0945 1145 BT224 1325 1630

8. 22 VNO to FRA TE420 1130 1300
FRA DEL LH760 1345 1225 +1
23 DEL JDH IC471 1310 1400  (Note: due to the tightness of this, I expect backup with a charter flight)
Jodhpur to Jaisalmer 3 hours minimum by road

9. 24 Jaisalmer to Jodhpur leave by noon for 3 hours minimum by road
IC472 JDH DEL 1825 1920
25 AI314 DEL KIX 2315 1235+1

10. Osaka tasks afternoon and evening of 25th
 
11. 26 KIX TPE EG211 1035 1220   or  CX565 1115 1310
Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then leg in Taipei with TBC to avoid having to go below 3 teams
 28 TPE to ANC CI11 0345 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)
FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: egnsixteen on November 19, 2007, 12:34:37 PM
Long time lurker here, finally decided to join in. Apskip, very good job with the itinerary. Do you know if theres another flight from CDG to Florence later that morning? The 1 hour connection in CDG is not enough (based from my experience). The line  in the customs for non-EU passport holders are typically crowded  at CDG not to mention that the flights from CDG to Florence uses small planes so they are not directly on the gates, instead the racers needs to take a bus to get to their plane (sitting somewhere on the tarmac). its pretty ridiculous for a one hour connection. I have a feeling some teams might not make it. Also, I'm surprised that theres not a lot of spoilers in Florence. The few days I spent there, I met so many Americans (especially students who are doing study abroad there). One last thing, I have a feeling the a clue box will be located in Piazza de Michaelangelo, its in the southern bank of the river, on a hill and it has a beautiful vista of the entire city. It is also fairly close to the beautiful Boboli gardens behind Palazo Pitti ( a great site for a Detour or a Roadblock).
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 19, 2007, 02:21:22 PM
egnsixteen, yes there are several later CDG to FLR flights. I picked the one for 1 hour 10 minute connect time recognizing that it might be an issue. Here are the others:

AF 5040 1000 1205
AF 5036 1205 1405
AF 5042 1320 1520
AF 5044 1545 1740
AF 5048 1855 1050
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 19, 2007, 02:45:36 PM
I hat CDG! and agrre about connecting difficulties there--they aren't easy!

Okay--puddin may have just placed teams in Bobo--

So would all flights out of there be via Ouagadougou--or are there any direct flights to Europe straight from Bobo?  And of course they could train it back to O--just checking!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 19, 2007, 03:52:48 PM
Bobo Dioulasso is a regional airport only. It has no flights to Europe. On July 16, it is not listed as having any flights to OUA nor is next July 14, 2008 listed as having any. I instinctively do not trust that information because it doesn't make sense.  However, right now in November there is a Monday flight from BOY to OUA:

BOBO DIOULASSO (BOY)
13:00 OUAGADOUGOU (OUA)
14:00 2J 102

Unfortunately, this is not really useful since teams will complete a 12 hour pitstop late evening of July 14. They could reach Bobo Dioulasso the morning of July 15(Sunday) and do tasks, resulting in a TBC ending and return to OUA that afternoon or evening for the 2340 flight back to Paris.

As an aside, Peach, my reading of the train lines does not show that Bingo and Bobo Dioulasso are on the same line. Bingo is on a short spur to the northwest while Bobo Dioulasso is the main stop on the main line west and a little south.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 19, 2007, 03:53:19 PM
I'm not good at this but whatever   :snakes: :inocent: :hides :rfth:~

Air Burkina  (http://www.air-burkina.com/pages/home_en.aspx?language=en) Popular Flights  :lol:

Bobo Dioulasso to Ouagadougou
Air Burkina has 1 daily flights from Bobo Dioulasso to Ouagadougou, for a total of 34 seats daily.


Bobo Dioulasso to Abidjan
Air Burkina has 1 daily flights from Bobo Dioulasso to Abidjan, for a total of 34 seats daily.

(http://i1.[banned image hosting site].com/817fevq.jpg)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 19, 2007, 04:27:51 PM
puddin, it can be a bit trickier than you think. For example, you say that BOY has a flight to ABJ. I say not on Sundays it doesn't and that's the only day that matters for the next leg since July 15 was a Sunday. Teams cannot get to BoboDioulasso before July 15 no matter how hard they try after a 12 hour pitstop. Other sources indicate that there was no such flight on July 15 and Air Burkina says there son't be one on July 13, 2008(the equivalent Monday), but the main determinant is Air Burkina's schedules for the week from today, which shows one flight between BOY and ABJ only on Friday. I went on to discover the following gems from the Air Burkina schedule, which I had found an hour ago for the first time but had not really exploited most of what is there:

It flies BOY OUA on Monday, Friday, and Saturday. Since teams are likely to return to OUA same day on July 15, it does not look like they will be using a flight.
It flies from BOY to Bamako, Lome and Niamey on Saturdays via Ouagadougou.
If flies to Paris-Orly from OUA on Saturday, but this is not going to be useful.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 19, 2007, 07:24:08 PM
So something like this? Speculating there are 6 teams in Croatia not 7.

Just thinking outloud


EP1: 11/4/07 LA-Ireland   11 teams to start -- Ari/Staella eliminated -- 10 teams left

EP2: 11/11/07 Ireland to The Netherlands 10 teams to start- Pat & Kate elim'ed--9 teams left

EP3: 11/18/07 Netherlands to Africa 9 teams to start --Sisters elim'ed --8 teams left

EP4: 11/25/07 Africa to Africa  8 teams to start --1 elim -- 7 teams left

EP5: 12/2/07 Africa to Italy?   7 teams to start - 1 elim - 6 teams left

EP6: 12/9/07 Italy to Croatia?  6 teams left - 1 elim - 5 teams left

EP7: 12/23/07 Croatia to Lithuania?  5 teams to start -- 1 elim or TBC(?) --5 or 4 teams left

EP8: 12/30/07 Lithuania to India?  5 or 4 teams to start --1 elim or TBC (?) 5 or 4 teams left

EP9: 1/6/08 India to Japan  4 teams to start --1 elim-- 3 teams left

EP10: 1/13/08 Japan to Taiwan --final 3 TBC

EP11: 1/20/08 Taiwan to Alaska Final 3 --winner
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 19, 2007, 09:25:05 PM
puddin, it could happen the way you have proposed it. The TBC legs could fall anywhere in the Timeline. However, look at the timing in the upcoming leg. Teams will be arriving in Bobo Dioulasso or wherever on the morning of July 15. If they do tasks and do a 12 hour pitstop, then they will not be able to leave on the 1140pm flight from OUA to CDG. If it is a TBC, then there will be no diffculty in them getting out that night. This is the most compelling argument for having the TBC leg next.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: north09 on November 20, 2007, 01:36:00 PM
Since I hope that there were 7 teams in Croatia, it's probably just my biased opinion to say that I would agree that the next leg is a TBC. I doubt TAR would try to squeeze in a flight to leave at night. They usually always leave in the day. Knowing that there is a U-Turn on this leg, replacing a yeild, it sort of supports a TBC. When there was a yeild it was usually a NEL.

Carry On...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 20, 2007, 02:10:22 PM
north09, your worst doubts are about to come true. The only direct flight between OUA and CDG, AirFrance 731, on July 15 leaves at 2130. The only nonstop flight between OUA and CDG, Air France 735, on July 16 leaves at 2340. the both get in at 0610 next day, which means that it is essentially the same routing except for the one stop AF731 makes. All other connecting flights leave between 930pm and 340am and are essentially dominated by the schedules of the direct or nonstop flights.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 20, 2007, 02:31:28 PM
Since I hope that there were 7 teams in Croatia, it's probably just my biased opinion to say that I would agree that the next leg is a TBC. I doubt TAR would try to squeeze in a flight to leave at night. They usually always leave in the day. Knowing that there is a U-Turn on this leg, replacing a yeild, it sort of supports a TBC. When there was a yeild it was usually a NEL.

Carry On...
Thats not true north, take for instance season 9, Lake & Michelle yielded the D's and they were eliminated. True Eric & Daniele were saved by the NEL not TBC season 11, but the second time around they were yielded by The Chas and it was the Cha's that were eliminated that episode...thats just a few examples.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: north09 on November 20, 2007, 05:32:48 PM
lol forgot about those
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 21, 2007, 11:14:17 AM
okay--this is driving me nuts. We have been speculating that Florence comes next because it makes logistical sense. But what if things don't go that way? And this is why I ask...

If you take the timeline and substitute in the actual filming dates that we are sure of (instead of episode airing dates)--then things get complicated.

Snagging puddin's list here:
 


EP1: 11/4/07 LA-Ireland   11 teams to start -- Ari/Staella eliminated -- 10 teams left Dep LA July 8--arr Ireland 7/9-spend night --tasks/Pitstop7/10 dep 7/11 :yes:

EP2: 11/11/07 Ireland to The Netherlands 10 teams to start- Pat & Kate elim'ed--9 teams left  dep Ireland 7/11, arr Amst 7/11 tasks+36 hour Pitstop:yes:

EP3: 11/18/07 Netherlands to Africa 9 teams to start --Sisters elim'ed --8 teams left  Depart via CDG on Fri 7/13, arr Ouagadougou 5PM on 7/13, camp at/near train station overnight, do tasks Sat 7/14, spend night at Bingo pitstop- :yes:

EP4: 11/25/07 Africa to Africa  8 teams to start --1 elim -- 7 teams left  Sun 7/15 tasks--now either this is a TBC on 7/15 so they can catch the evening 7/15 flight out OR it is an elim and teams depart 7/16. And here is where I get confused --we believe teams arr Dubrovnik on 7/19 direct from the airport. So if they arr Florence 7/16 there seem to be too many days--even if they arr 7/17 you would think they do tasks 7/17 and are ready to go wherever by 7/18. So either they need a 36 hour Pitstop in Florence (where you would think that they would LEAST want to hang around due to the numbers of tourists) --or they go somewhere else either instead of or in addition to Florence. What if teams go first to Lithuania first from BF? arr there 7/17--tasks 7/17 with Pitstop dep 7/18 to Florence arr 7/18 tasks + pitstop dep for Dubrovnik AM 7/19.
So far we know they have lots to do in Lithuania so makes sense to give them the time there. But somewhere there has to be a TBC instead of a Pitstop or this way we lose too many teams before Dubrovnik. OR Lithuania could be another 36 hour Pitstop and Florence could FOLLOW Dubrovnik. Apskip will have to tell us what does and doesn't work here, but I am concerned that BF--Florence--Dubrovnik isn't working.  And it gets equally confusing when we put this onwards--but that is for another post!

EP5: 12/2/07 Africa to Italy?   7 teams to start - 1 elim - 6 teams left   or to Lithuania??

EP6: 12/9/07 Italy to Croatia?  6 teams left - 1 elim - 5 teams left  Or to Italy/TBC? still 6 teams  OR to Dubrovnik  

EP7: 12/23/07 Croatia to Lithuania?  5 teams to start -- 1 elim or TBC(?) --5 or 4 teams left  OR Dubrovnik 6 to start one elim--down to five--OR to Italy

EP8: 12/30/07 Lithuania to India?  5 or 4 teams to start --1 elim or TBC (?) 5 or 4 teams left

EP9: 1/6/08 India to Japan  4 teams to start --1 elim-- 3 teams left

EP10: 1/13/08 Japan to Taiwan --final 3 TBC

EP11: 1/20/08 Taiwan to Alaska Final 3 --winner

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 21, 2007, 11:19:50 AM
I thought you were all saying Florence next because of the "burned bridges" title, you know bridges = Florence  :lol:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 21, 2007, 11:26:58 AM
No silly---Ponte Vecchio survived the Nazi's --guess it can survive TAR! And this has to be the Blondes commenting on whatever they did in Ep 4, right?

Apskip has some good ideas on this--I'll let him comment.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 21, 2007, 11:34:37 AM
Hey it wasn't me, thats why I locked that thread so that we didn't have 3 pages of Florence stuff before we even knew if it is indeed Florence  :lol:



Burned bridges - in Florence?
Yes indeed. The Ponte Vecchio in Florence is world famous. With the Arno River, Florence has several bridges.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 21, 2007, 12:44:42 PM
How about this and yes its speculation  :angel:  :treadmill

EP4: Africa~Africa ELIM 7 left
EP5: Africa~India TBC *monsoon*
EP6: India~India ELIM 6 left
EP7: India~Croatia ELIM 5 left
EP8: Croatia~Italy Elim 4 left
EP9: Italy~ Lithuania ELIM 3 left
EP10: Lithuania~ Japan ~ Taiwan TBC 3 left
EP11: Taiwan~ Alaska ~winner
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 21, 2007, 03:09:27 PM
I have had some PM dialogue with Peach on the subject of whether a Africa to  Vilnius to Florence to Dubrovnik routing or Africa to Florence to Vilnius to Dubrovnik routing can make sense. The answer to both questions is NO. Here's why for the first question. The same logic was worked out for the second case and it proved even less close on timing:

1. AF735 arrives CDG 610am July 17
2. First reasonable connection is at 800am on AF1340 to AMS, connecting there with TE461 to VNO arriving at 1325.
3. Teams then have all of afternoon and evening of July 17 in Vilnius to complete tasks.
4. Earliest possible departure would be at maybe 730am on July 18 to Florence. TE470 departs VNO 0735 to CDG, connecting to AF5036 arriving FLR 1405.
5. Teams have the rest of the afternoon and evening to do tasks in Florence. It doesn't  matter whether it is a TBC or pitstop. They are not going to DBV until tasks are done. There is no way that the first group can arrive at 1405 and depart at 1725 even though with a TBC the second or third groups could indeed make it. The precise times are as shown in my master TIMELINE post. NOTE: the reason the first group has to depart by 1725 is that is the latest time they can connect through Milan and Zagreb arriving at 1030 on July 19, which corresponds well with actual observation of when they got to town

I have to conclude that there can be no Africa to Vilnius to Florence routing because there just isn't sufficient time. That means there will be an extended pit stop somewhere, I would guess Florence rather than Burkina Faso. I would also guess that the separation of teams has to occur somewhere and it won't be coming out of Africa with only one flight each 24 hours. The tasks in Florence have to involve major opportunities to get ahead and behind, like FAST FORWARD and UTURN and SPEED BUMP.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 21, 2007, 03:53:21 PM
puddin stated the following speculative route above:   

EP4: Africa~Africa ELIM 7 left
EP5: Africa~India TBC *monsoon*
EP6: India~India ELIM 6 left
EP7: India~Croatia ELIM 5 left
EP8: Croatia~Italy Elim 4 left
EP9: Italy~ Lithuania ELIM 3 left
EP10: Lithuania~ Japan ~ Taiwan TBC 3 left
EP11: Taiwan~ Alaska ~winner


puddin, I know that speculation should not draw a lot of comment. However, I couldn't resist repeating my comments from the Ep. 4 thread, post #4:   

"The optimum flights to Delhi India(gateway to Jaisalmer and a lot of other places in India) are via Paris-Charles-DeGaulle airport coming from West African places such as Ouagadougou or Niamey or several other West African capital cities because that is the way the air routes were set up. It makes no sense to fly to India and then return to Europe to catch Florence, Dubrovnik and Vilnius when you are right there in Europe for that connection.

I think people who are reading Elise Doganieri's statement Holland to India to Croatia literally are making a mistake."

Another reason that specualtive routing is not realistic is that it takes almost 2 days extra to fly to India and back to Europe and then go to Japan. AR12 just doesn't have that much slack time.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 21, 2007, 04:31:31 PM
Many thanks to Apskip into looking into that. The main reason we are wobbling about how/when teams arrive in Dubrovnik is because of the personal information obtained by our source.

After getting to talk briefly with TK/Rachel, she understood them to say that the reason they were behind in Dubrovnik is that they had missed a flight connection by 5 minutes--the flight that the first 3 teams were on. And add in Azaria/Hendekea arriving at the cluebox so much later per Chateau time--and we are speculating on needing three flights. One for the first 3 arr before noonish, one arr early-mid afternoon and one arr later afternoon.  That way we can explain the separation in time between the teams we see.

So per apskip's flight research, that can not happen by starting out from Lithuania, and he shows that there does not appear to be enough time to squeeze in Florence after Lithuania and before Dubrovnik.

So that being said, I'm going with this for now:

RED =puddin's previous summary    BLUE= my additions


EP1: 11/4/07 LA-Ireland   11 teams to start -- Ari/Staella eliminated -- 10 teams left Dep LA July 8--arr Ireland 7/9-spend night --tasks/Pitstop7/10 dep 7/11 :yes:

EP2: 11/11/07 Ireland to The Netherlands 10 teams to start- Pat & Kate elim'ed--9 teams left  dep Ireland 7/11, arr Amst 7/11 tasks+36 hour Pitstop:yes:

EP3: 11/18/07 Netherlands to Africa 9 teams to start --Sisters elim'ed --8 teams left  Depart via CDG on Fri 7/13, arr Ouagadougou 5PM on 7/13, camp at/near train station overnight, do tasks Sat 7/14,  Bingo pitstop- :yes:

EP4: 11/25/07 Africa to Africa  8 teams to start --1 elim -- 7 teams left  Sun 7/15 tasks--  Pitstop  

EP5: 12/2/07 Africa to Italy?   7 teams to start - 1 elim - 6 teams left    --fly out Mon 7/16 and arr FLorence 7/17 Tues AM, tasks and Pitstop needs to be 36 hours, 

EP6: 12/9/07 Italy to Croatia?  6 teams to start - 1 elim - 5 teams left  dep Florence 7/19 arr 7/19 Dubrovnik *confirmed date*--teams seen doing tasks 7/19-- Pitstop  

EP7: 12/23/07 Croatia to Lithuania?  5 teams to start -- 1 elim or TBC(?) --5 or 4 teams left  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
not addressing the rest of this yet:
EP8: 12/30/07 Lithuania to India?  5 or 4 teams to start --1 elim or TBC (?) 5 or 4 teams left

EP9: 1/6/08 India to Japan  4 teams to start --1 elim-- 3 teams left

EP10: 1/13/08 Japan to Taiwan --final 3 TBC

EP11: 1/20/08 Taiwan to Alaska Final 3 --winner


So we are putting a lot of faith in the keen eye of our source, but for now it appears to be our best guess. And that means only 6 teams in Dubrovnik, and excludes the possibility of a seventh.
So if she is also right about the F/F team, then we have our next 2 elims.

Unless TPTB throw a TBC in there somehow--in which case  :pull I give up! :lol3:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 21, 2007, 05:53:10 PM
I think it would be funny if they did go to India after Africa :carryon:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: KingCrimson88 on November 21, 2007, 06:08:10 PM
Funny, maybe, but also completely impractical.

Also, I think the second TBC would be in leg 9. In the past two seasons, the leg before the finale has been an elimination, which is why I think leg 10 will start with 4 teams and someone will be eliminated in the end. Of course, with only 2 TBC's this season, it's really hard to tell how they're going to space them out.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 22, 2007, 11:13:11 AM
apskips, which post is your master timeline? I'd like to insert the link into the spoilers thread post 1.

thanks in advance.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 22, 2007, 12:33:05 PM
Since I hope that there were 7 teams in Croatia, it's probably just my biased opinion to say that I would agree that the next leg is a TBC. I doubt TAR would try to squeeze in a flight to leave at night. They usually always leave in the day. Knowing that there is a U-Turn on this leg, replacing a yeild, it sort of supports a TBC. When there was a yeild it was usually a NEL.

Carry On...
Thats not true north, take for instance season 9, Lake & Michelle yielded the D's and they were eliminated. True Eric & Daniele were saved by the NEL not TBC season 11, but the second time around they were yielded by The Chas and it was the Cha's that were eliminated that episode...thats just a few examples.

On the isssue of Yields and when their isn't a built in life line.

In the past lifelines for the YIeld have included severe bunching (4 hours to over half a day), non elimination legs, and TBC legs.

I won't talk about season 5 because they were in almost every episode (except the finale).

But there is a bit of a pattern, to most of the two yields.

Season 6. 

1st yield-no lifeline in any form.  Just one tasks between yield and elimination point.
2nd yield-A non elimination leg.

Season 7. 
1st Yield ?
2cd Yield.  no lifeline in any form just one task separates yield and elimination point.

Season 8
1st yield-no lifeline in any form.  Just one task between yield and elimination point (Sorry Tammy).
2nd Yield-A non elimination leg

Season 9
1st yield-no lifeline in any form just one task separates yield and elimination point. (only team yielded that actually gets eliminated.
2cd Yield-non elimination leg

Season 10
1st yield (while not shown was in one of the Vietnam legs.  No lifeline.  No idea how many tasks between yield and elimination point.
2nd yield-non elimination leg

All Stars
1st Yield-no lifeline in any form though two tasks separate yield and elimination point.
2nd Yield-non elimination leg.

So there is a bit of a pattern.  Typically the first Yield is an elimination leg.  And its never been with a TBC leg.

Now with season 10 and All Stars, they have introduced a new twist that can negatively impact a teams performance.  But in both instances it was on elimination legs.

So if anything, (and if the Yield is being fully replaced, as opposed to just adding more twists), then it would strongly imply that the first use of a tool to hold back teams will be an elimination leg.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 22, 2007, 02:45:35 PM
What mswood said  :ya3: :roses:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 22, 2007, 03:40:00 PM
puddin, my Master Timeline shifts from time to time. It is currently found in post #28 on this thread and is up-to-date as of right now in my thinking(because I have been going back and modifying it). I don't know where teams are going in Burkina Faso for ep. 4, but I do know how and when they are leaving Burkina Faso. From there, everything flows logically.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 22, 2007, 04:02:13 PM
What if I  copy it and paste it into the first post if this thread apskips? You can update it there and it will be easy to find with a :bump now and then to let us know that its been modified.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 22, 2007, 04:17:21 PM
puddin, my Master Timeline shifts from time to time. It is currently found in post #28 on this thread and is up-to-date as of right now in my thinking(because I have been going back and modifying it). I don't know where teams are going in Burkina Faso for ep. 4, but I do know how and when they are leaving Burkina Faso. From there, everything flows logically.
Apskip, just a shout of thanks.  While things (to some degree) can change.  I love reading these.  Especially o see how close things actually work out.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on November 22, 2007, 11:51:35 PM
Quote
Season 7.
1st Yield ?

Wasn't their a Yield right after the teams passed over the Andes into Argentina?   ???  It was right before they had a Detour for Bikes or Rafts.  No team used it.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 23, 2007, 09:49:43 AM
Thanks Chateau.  Its the one, I couldn't remember and with cooking and family I didn't bother to check.  But I do think you are right.  In which case that was also an elimination leg.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on November 23, 2007, 12:56:00 PM
Elimination

as in from the stomach!   :barf    :barf    :barf
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 01:25:12 PM
Okay--I got worried about this last week:
We need to do some reevaluating here...

July 13th to Ouagadougou
July 14th leg 1 pitstop
July 15th leg 2 with Pitstop? or TBC?? till AM of 16th
July 16th/17th maybe Florence
 
so then now we need to consider if Lithuania could precede Croatia, IMO.

Our source feels that from what TK/Rachael told her that teams were coming directly from the airport when they arrived in Dubrovnik on July 19th...

Then we talked about it more in this post (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13694.msg239683.html#msg239683)

Quote
And here is where I get confused --we believe teams arr Dubrovnik on 7/19 direct from the airport. So if they arr Florence 7/16 there seem to be too many days--even if they arr 7/17 you would think they do tasks 7/17 and are ready to go wherever by 7/18. So either they need a 36 hour Pitstop in Florence (where you would think that they would LEAST want to hang around due to the numbers of tourists) --or they go somewhere else either instead of or in addition to Florence. What if teams go first to Lithuania first from BF? arr there 7/17--tasks 7/17 with Pitstop dep 7/18 to Florence arr 7/18 tasks + pitstop dep for Dubrovnik AM 7/19.

I got talked out of it here  because there was not enought time to fit in Florence:

I have had some PM dialogue with Peach on the subject of whether a Africa to  Vilnius to Florence to Dubrovnik routing or Africa to Florence to Vilnius to Dubrovnik routing can make sense. The answer to both questions is NO. Here's why for the first question. The same logic was worked out for the second case and it proved even less close on timing:

1. AF735 arrives CDG 610am July 17
2. First reasonable connection is at 800am on AF1340 to AMS, connecting there with TE461 to VNO arriving at 1325.
3. Teams then have all of afternoon and evening of July 17 in Vilnius to complete tasks.
4. Earliest possible departure would be at maybe 730am on July 18 to Florence. TE470 departs VNO 0735 to CDG, connecting to AF5036 arriving FLR 1405.
5. Teams have the rest of the afternoon and evening to do tasks in Florence. It doesn't  matter whether it is a TBC or pitstop. They are not going to DBV until tasks are done. There is no way that the first group can arrive at 1405 and depart at 1725 even though with a TBC the second or third groups could indeed make it. The precise times are as shown in my master TIMELINE post. NOTE: the reason the first group has to depart by 1725 is that is the latest time they can connect through Milan and Zagreb arriving at 1030 on July 19, which corresponds well with actual observation of when they got to town

I have to conclude that there can be no Africa to Vilnius to Florence routing because there just isn't sufficient time. That means there will be an extended pit stop somewhere, I would guess Florence rather than Burkina Faso. I would also guess that the separation of teams has to occur somewhere and it won't be coming out of Africa with only one flight each 24 hours. The tasks in Florence have to involve major opportunities to get ahead and behind, like FAST FORWARD and UTURN and SPEED BUMP.


So okay..

BUT now we KNOW we go Ouag to CDG to Vilnius (Lithuania) arr CDG 7/17 AM about 6:10 AND we KNOW we are in Dubrovnik on 7/19---HOW can we make this fit now??

7/17 arr CDG at 6:10 AM --I know CDG and I agree that it would be almost impossible to make a 7:20 flight so here are more from apskip:

egnsixteen, yes there are several later CDG to FLR flights. I picked the one for 1 hour 10 minute connect time recognizing that it might be an issue. Here are the others:

AF 5040 1000 1205
AF 5036 1205 1405
AF 5042 1320 1520
AF 5044 1545 1740
AF 5048 1855 1050
 
and lots more from me:   :lol:
(http://aycu12.webshots.com/image/36411/2004425733723494039_rs.jpg) (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2004425733723494039)

This puts us into Vilnius on 7/17 mid to late afternoon--get rental car--get to Rumsiskes- (not far--see MAPS!) and doing tasks on late afternoon which fits with Chateau's Time shot of Ron/Christina doing stilts between 8 and 8:30 PM  HERE (http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13974.msg240214.html#msg240214).

We are also pretty darn sure that they will be doing tasks at the Trakai water castle as well so suppose they keep on racing but find Hours of Op in Trakai taking tasks to first thing in the AM 7/18  and PITSTOP there.

That lets teams leave AM early for Dubrovnik on 7/19.  It does NOT explain why TK/Rachel "missed a flight by 5 minutes" unless they have trouble on the way to the airport...

The big glaring absence?? Where is Florence?? Well, if it is going to come, it has to come AFTER Croatia to make this fit.

Apskip and I did not look at that as an option IIRC so we will need to pull some flights to see if this can work this way. How DARE he go on a vacation this week? :lol3:

Trains seem unlikely to work given the time constraints.

The good news is if this is the scenario:

Then we have an elim and are down to 6 teams for Dubrovnik just as we expect.

Comments? Ideas? We  need everyone's input on this :please:!!


THINGS THAT NEED CHECKING:

1) Flights Vilnius to Dubrovnik AM 7/19 (we would like three so as to explain the way teams are bunched in Dubrovnik--one to arr by 10 or so--one mid afternoon--one late afternoon...)
  and this is all I have found which is NOT enough and it is too late!
(http://aycu05.webshots.com/image/34804/2005902554063187269_rs.jpg) (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2005902554063187269)


2) Flights Dubrovnik to Florence AM 7/20
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 26, 2007, 01:32:18 PM
If they go to Vilnius/Trakai, remember these are not introflash's they are from our photo source, then why can't say maybe the Roadblock first in Vilnius? then Rumsiskes/detours?


Quote
This puts us into Vilnius on 7/17 mid to late afternoon--get rental car--get to Rumsiskes- (not far--see MAPS!) and doing tasks on late afternoon which fits with Chateau's Time shot of Ron/Christina doing stilts between 8 and 8:30 PM HERE.

We are also pretty darn sure that they will be doing tasks at the Trakai water castle as well so suppose they keep on racing but find Hours of Op in Trakai taking tasks to first thing in the AM 7/18  and PITSTOP there.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 01:39:34 PM
If you exclude Trakai that is possible for sure (I just REALLY want them to go there!)

But I don't think they can get to Trakai --do a task--and then to Rumsiskes in time...

If we say they don't go there--and they finish and the pitstop is 7/17 we still can't get in out and of Florence in time...so what to they do on 7/18? Extended pitstop? Go to Split? I don't know?! :pull
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 26, 2007, 01:40:36 PM
Quote
This puts us into Vilnius on 7/17 mid to late afternoon--get rental car--get to Rumsiskes- (not far--see MAPS!) and doing tasks on late afternoon which fits with Chateau's Time shot of Ron/Christina doing stilts between 8 and 8:30 PM HERE.

We are also pretty darn sure that they will be doing tasks at the Trakai water castle as well so suppose they keep on racing but find Hours of Op in Trakai taking tasks to first thing in the AM 7/18  and PITSTOP there.

I'm guessing that if anything is done in Vilnius/Trakai it would be early on.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 01:43:48 PM
But it can't be early!

The VERY earliest they can arrive is by 1:25 and that is only if they have divine intervention at CDG otherwise we are looking at airport arrivals of  between 2 to 6 PM.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 26, 2007, 01:46:09 PM
And so we wait for evidence.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on November 26, 2007, 01:46:25 PM
*Looks for divine intervention*  :lol: :lol: :lol:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 01:49:19 PM
*Looks for divine intervention*  :lol: :lol: :lol:

Just don't look for it in CDG airport! :lol3:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 26, 2007, 02:59:30 PM
could they fly to Kuanas instead?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 26, 2007, 03:03:25 PM
sorry no

but it could be a way out via Frankfurt
http://www.kaunasair.lt/index.php?lang=2&m=2&p=220

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 26, 2007, 03:11:49 PM
Okay stupid question.  Why do we believe that tasks are done on the 15th for this current leg (episode 4)?

I think they actually did tasks on the 14th (even with odd Pit Stop time).

Unless I have been wrong on my reports.  Then we should have arrived in Burkina Faso on the 12th.  Got to Bingo on the 13th, did tasks that day.  Pit Stop.  Next day (the 14th) tasks of episode #4, then a Pit Stop, with teams being able to leave the 15th (unless teams need to take an extended Pit Stop due to lack of flights).  Airwise shows flights ont eh 15th to CDG.

So what am I missing.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 03:17:16 PM
Teams flew to BF on Fri 13th for sure per the missionaries...

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13942.msg240280.html#msg240280

missionary link: http://www.ergatai.com/wp/?p=269
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 26, 2007, 03:21:13 PM
Teams flew to BF on Fri 13th for sure per the missionaries...

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13942.msg240280.html#msg240280

missionary link:http://www.ergatai.com/wp/?p=269

Damn it.

Hell even apskip was working off the flight to BF on the 12th.

If they did fly the 13th, then where did we get an extended Pit Stop?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 03:22:27 PM
Netherlands... :lol:

Don't feel bad--I had to hit Apskip with the prayer letter too. And the only way the flight on 7/13 worked was for Netherlands to be 36 hours...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 26, 2007, 03:26:42 PM

Netherlands... :lol:
(:;)Oh, shut up..... :pull

But seriously when we see Kynt and Vyxsin buy their tickets (there is a screen shot of the terminal the ticket agent is using) and it shows the day of the 12th (its what I used to verify the date).  So if that was accurate then how did it take them so long to get to BF?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 03:30:58 PM
I don't know about that--do you have the picture? They all caught the flight on the 13th to BF and arrived sched 4:35 , and by 5 per the missionaries.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 26, 2007, 03:38:56 PM
I don't know about that--do you have the picture? They all caught the flight on the 13th to BF and arrived sched 4:35 , and by 5 per the missionaries.
Sorry, I was jsut pulling your leg.

I am just pissed that I didn't realize that they had a 36 hour Pit Stop.  Damn those missionaries. :angel:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on November 26, 2007, 03:41:19 PM
That screen shot is wrong.   :lol:

I think it said the 11th, and we know that was when they arrived at AMS from Ireland.

Did you also see the screen shot that was a leftover from TAR6 Premiere?   It says August 13th!  (ie 2004)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 26, 2007, 03:44:54 PM
That screen shot is wrong.   :lol:

I think it said the 11th, and we know that was when they arrived at AMS from Ireland.

Did you also see the screen shot that was a leftover from TAR6 Premiere?   It says August 13th!  (ie 2004)
God, now I am going to ahve to go home and check that to see if Chateau was joking or not.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 03:50:29 PM
Ummm--no he wasn't. From TWoP:

Quote
* At some point in the airport sequence there's a shot of a ticket agent's screen that I think reads 13AUG. There are some names shown too and some airport codes that are in the U.S. -- so for those who are interested in investigating, that could contain some spoilery. (I am unspoiled and won't speculate further here.)

Quote
No spoilery there!

If you look close you see two names that may be familiar: Dave Price and Harry Smith

It is a recycled shot of TAR6 Pemiere when The Early Show went along for the ride to Iceland. I have seen this shot get used on some other seasons as well.


What's REAlly scary is that I even KNOW this stuff! :lol3:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 26, 2007, 03:58:54 PM
ok, when I go home, I am just going to hide under the bed until this week is over.   :hides
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 26, 2007, 04:07:17 PM
oh well, a day here --a day there-- what's it matter right? :lol3:

We love you anyway... :kissy:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on November 26, 2007, 08:05:38 PM
We love mswood!  :hearts: :hearts: :hearts: :hearts:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 01:22:18 PM
Peach would it help if any of these next legs were TBL.  Would the absence of a Pit Stop allow teams enough time to get in and out of the places in time?

Usually teh TBC legs start with a long equilers before going to another country.

But in season 9 (if the damn computers would have worked right) it was planned to get in and out of Russia in one day, and have the bulk of the equilizer to be part of the next country before the first task.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 01:43:49 PM
Okay ignore that question since I just started reading about no TBC.  I swear, I hide under my bed for one day....
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 01:51:27 PM
We still have to get them there and now I see what apskip meant about the flights not working this way.

I can get them out of Lithuania but not in time to do Florence before Croatia. So if we go Lithuania-Croatia I am trying to see a way to explain that extra night in Lithuania before arriving Croatia.

And getting them to Croatia from Lithuania in 3 flight bunches is a nightmare--not sure I can find that.

And getting them Croatia to Florence requires them going thru somewhere else--and I seem to only be able to find flights that put them there after 10 PM.

ARRRGGGHH! This is SO not my thing--please can someone else try?  Free Charter flights for everyone! :cmaslol

And could you (mswood) please come over here :http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13900.msg240373.html#msg240373 and read the next posts and tell me what puddin is trying to say? I am all scrambled up now about the NEL's and TBC's and if we will have any or not. But maybe we should bring your answer back over here...

Thanks! :kissy:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 27, 2007, 02:53:31 PM
Good Goth we need guidance  :cmas28! When does apskips come back from his *cough*jealous*cough* tropical vacation?

Another thing to look at is my Split speculation as in the producer hanging out in Split, image source picture. Could the teams have spent the 18th in Split? They can drive to Dub from Split though or taxi but thats 3 to 4 hours from what I understand? What about flights into Split from whatsitcalled VNO?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 02:54:09 PM
We still have to get them there and now I see what apskip meant about the flights not working this way.

I can get them out of Lithuania but not in time to do Florence before Croatia. So if we go Lithuania-Croatia I am trying to see a way to explain that extra night in Lithuania before arriving Croatia.

And getting them to Croatia from Lithuania in 3 flight bunches is a nightmare--not sure I can find that.

And getting them Croatia to Florence requires them going thru somewhere else--and I seem to only be able to find flights that put them there after 10 PM.

ARRRGGGHH! This is SO not my thing--please can someone else try?  Free Charter flights for everyone! :cmaslol


peach

i've been looking at flights too, and I have so much respect for apskip now.

I cannot make the flights work, i did find 3 bunches of flights coming from Frankfurt to croatia, this is with an overnight in Frankfurt.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 03:14:17 PM
What time do we think that they would get out of Lithuania, could we plan for an overnight in an airport in europe on route to Croatia.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on November 27, 2007, 03:20:41 PM
I say we all do a roadtrip to Burkina Faso to Lithuania to test this out.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 03:38:51 PM
We still have to get them there and now I see what apskip meant about the flights not working this way.

I can get them out of Lithuania but not in time to do Florence before Croatia. So if we go Lithuania-Croatia I am trying to see a way to explain that extra night in Lithuania before arriving Croatia.

And getting them to Croatia from Lithuania in 3 flight bunches is a nightmare--not sure I can find that.

And getting them Croatia to Florence requires them going thru somewhere else--and I seem to only be able to find flights that put them there after 10 PM.

ARRRGGGHH! This is SO not my thing--please can someone else try?  Free Charter flights for everyone! :cmaslol

And could you (mswood) please come over here :http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13900.msg240373.html#msg240373 and read the next posts and tell me what puddin is trying to say? I am all scrambled up now about the NEL's and TBC's and if we will have any or not. But maybe we should bring your answer back over here...

Thanks! :kissy:

Peach I will give it a tryon flights when I get home (last night I had no spare time at all).  Don't know if I will be any help, but I'll give it a go.

So Puddin how bad do we get to beat up Apskip when he returns?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 04:14:13 PM
Thanks everybody, patlini, and mswood!

We are already in Lithuania and not at Rumsiskes till late afternoon on the 17th so that all fits.

There is not (IMO) a way to have them there in time to do tasks at Trakai before Rumsiskes. But if they run into an Hour of Ops thing and start at Trakai on the AM of 7/18 , Pitstop, leave for Dubrovnik on 7/19 then that works.

Or if it is a TBC then leaving on 7/18 for Split or Dubrovnik could also work.

I tried planes, trains, ferries to get them into Florence and I don't see a way to do it before Croatia in time so it must come after.

This site is helpful too on possible means of transportation (http://www.dubrovnikapartmentsvillas.com/roseofdubrovniktransport.htm).

The main thing we need right now is to know flights from Lithuania (Vilnius or Kaunas) to Croatia (Split?? or Dubrovnik). Teams need to be there on 7/19 and I was hoping to find a grouping of three flights that would explain how TK/Rachel "missed a connection by 5 minutes" taking them into mid-pack, how the 1st three arrived early, and why we see Azaria/Hendekea arriving later.
But so far no luck on that UNLESS this is one of those pull a number take a charter flight deals.

We also need to see how to get them from Croatia to Florence on 7/20 because if we can't get them there--maybe they didn't go there in this order. So far I can do it--but not till late at night.

And I still don't know if we have NEL or a TBC or not!! :pull

And apskip better darned well come back with presents is all I have to say!! :lol3:

here are some flights Vilnius to Split on 7/18 but not sure how/if that helps unless we are proposing a TBC to there with a Pitstop there.

hmmm...maybe I should look for flights Split-Dubrovnik on 7/19--they could drive but Our Source felt like they had arrived from the Airport on 7/19. That was her educated spec but still... Okay--I looked--no flights.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 27, 2007, 04:35:09 PM
To get down to 6 for Croatia then we can't have a TBC or NEL whatever peach if we believe EP6 is Croatia right!?

Any lurkers out there willing to help us here? please!?  :cmas26
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 04:39:48 PM
I know in Europe during the summer there are a lot of "tourist flights", no sure if TAR would use them.

I was thinking that maybe they head out of lithuania evening of the 18th, get half way to DBV, overnight it in Frankfurt/Vienna and get a connection in Zagreb.  Croatia airlines all hub through zagreb

thoughts anyone....
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 04:45:04 PM
maybe one of the tasks at the castle is at night like with the knights in TARAS  so check in would be late night of the 7/17

straws - grasping
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 06:17:39 PM
Okay...Chateau just emailed me this: (he can't access here from work)

Quote
Also, Apskip had posted a ZAG to Dubrovnik flight #660 at 10:10 am
which I could not confirm.  I find #660 always arrives around 6 to 7
am.  So I am sticking with the Tom's flight through London that I
posted way back.  That one arrives around noon.  Still, Teams have to
leave the night before to get the London flight.  So I think
Lithuania checkins will be between midnight and 6 am on the 18th
(depends on how far they are from the airport, far away means make
the times earlier).

I think he must mean airport checkins...

And who/what are Toms?

I haven't checked via London...I was doing Zareb, Frankfort, Rome and hoped to try CDG again.

And puddin I know we can't if it is Lith-Dubrov but if we threw in Split then it might? Lith elim, Split TBC to Dubr. Just trying to make this work SOMEWAY!

:lol: I KNOW! I have been doing this all day and getting nowhere.  :pull (:;)

Here are those flights which I had--but connecting TO those flights is trickier. The first 2 are good ones though.

(http://aycu13.webshots.com/image/34092/2006203008353983654_rs.jpg) (http://allyoucanupload.webshots.com/v/2006203008353983654)




Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 27, 2007, 07:04:38 PM
Hee it looks I was right! Roadblock in Vilnius and Detours in Rumsiskes  :yess:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 07:27:45 PM


I think he must mean airport checkins...

And who/what are Toms?



:lol: I KNOW! I have been doing this all day and getting nowhere.  :pull (:;)




Toms - Thomsonfly

they have a 6.55 from london gatwick that gets in at 10.55

oh and then they have an 11.30 which gets in at 1.30
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 07:47:26 PM
Nice! Now can you get them there?

And new pic in the EPisode thread! All hands on deck!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 27, 2007, 07:51:40 PM
Nice! Now can you get them there?

And new pic in the EPisode thread! All hands on deck!
Sure they fly! See that was easy  :yess: :hammer :snakes:


(http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b105/rawalsh/amazingrace12/EP5/27Nov0054.jpg)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 07:54:53 PM
19th July - thursday right?

these flights are only showing on a Saturday and I went forward to July 08 - the same

thomsonfly shows 3 uk airports that can fly to dbv, but none of them on a Thurs

(basing this off current timetable and one for Jul 08)

looking at other "cheap" uk flight companies
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 08:07:12 PM
I may have to kill you now....
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 08:21:39 PM
sorry....

you don't know how happy i was when i thought i'd found it


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 08:29:53 PM
No! NO! :lol: not you! You are doing great! Just puddin and her they Fly!! :lol:

sorry....

I did checkRyan air on your rec from Kaunas--seems like there was a Thurs PM flight...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 08:37:54 PM
ok this is a bizarre coincidence

I know that ONLY ryanair flies out of Kaunas

my whole family was there the weekend of the 27th July (cousin marrying a local) can't believe they missed out by a week.

anyhoo, what if one bunch of racers went to Kaunas to get a flight out???  still going through all the UK airlines

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 08:47:37 PM
Well Peach lets see  what do we all have.  ANd maybe combined we can come up with enough flights.

1st.  We are looking for three flights (with at least one having a connection, though in all cases their should be connections).  We are looking for one early (am, maybe arrival?), one later in the day (perhaps afternoon), and then one much later (Pm night?).

2nd:  Looking for arrivals on the 19th, and departures either very late the 18th, but most likely early am on the 19th.

Well from looking at flights through Warsaw, Prague, Amsterdam, London, Paris,)

Its no problem getting Azaria & Hendekea's late flight since almost all flights to various connecting citites can get you there at 6:45pm.  So thats one that could go through London, Prague, Warsaw, Paris and Amsterdam (they each have options) for that late flight.

I can get one flight from VNO on the 19th 6:00am to Prague (PRG) that arrives in Prague at 6:35am.  Either AZ 3305/OK 0871

That gives teams the chance to connect to from PRG to SPU departing 9:55am on TP 7933/9013 that arrives in SPU at 1:55pm.  That could be TK & Rachel.


We also have the flight VNO departs 6:00am arrives to FRA at 8:35am OK 0871 / AF 6312*.  Departs FRA at 9:30am arrives in SPU at 12:55pm.  LH 2478* / OU 0654.

Right there are two flights that could get the majority of teams in to SPU for stuff during the day.

And there is a huge host of flights that could get a team in at 6:45pm (really a ton).

Thats the best I could come up with over the last hour.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 09:04:57 PM
mswood are you looking at them flying into Split instead of Dubrovnik?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 09:10:03 PM
  I LOVE you! :hearts:

Okay that's fabulous!  I esp like the Prague info as we had a clue that  TAR ASia and TAR 12 racers may have crossed in an airport and we know TARA2 was in Prague on I think the 17th or 18th so that could just be possible.

Chateau is trying to narrow down his cluebox times for us but right now we can say that we CAN get the teams from Vilnius to Dubrovnik on July 19th. :yess:

We have Ron/Christine there at the cluebox around 12:30

We have Az/Hendekea there around 6PM

We have TK/Rachel in around 2 or so??

So those flights would do it.

NOW>>>

Can we get them from Dubrovnik to Florence on July 20?

We have production on a flight Dubr-Zag dawn on July 20 but not the racers.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 09:11:44 PM
yes, damn it.  Don't tell me we are looking at them arriving at Dubrovick.....
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 09:12:55 PM
Peach, sorry to break it to you.  But I had them arriving in Split.  Is that workable?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 09:23:00 PM
would any of these fit, it is for July 08 (thursday) but the same schedule...?

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 09:26:21 PM
Cool

Where did you find those?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 09:26:35 PM
Well we do have a picture of our photo source lollygagging in Split but we don't know what that means.

It is a 3+ hour drive from there but see, we know TK/Rachel were in a taxi so I don't think they drove.

And we need the leading teams in Dubrovnik by noon.

Can I cry now?

I have the 2 Zagreb-Dubr flights I posted above and Chateau's London flight  (he just emailed me it is post #163 so let me look)  too but connecting to this isn't so easy.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 09:30:57 PM
Oh some of those look very good! :happy:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 09:31:13 PM
Cool

Where did you find those?

teletext in the UK
 
www.thisistravel.co.uk


looking at florence now


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 09:38:39 PM
Oh LOOK!!!

Chateau and apskip were talking about this for a whole page way back in OCT!!!

http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,12520.msg234698.html#msg234698
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 09:45:41 PM
Oh Hell.

I almost looked at Zeg as a possibility.  But I assumed it was some small place I would have never heard of.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 09:53:43 PM
could have saved ourselves  a lot of time there....

but they have them going straight from Burkino Faso to Dubrovnik?  and the days don't jive with thomsonfly from gatwick.

The timetable only shows a saturday flight

though this is the winter schedule and it could be different in the summer which they would have had the luxury of checking in October


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 27, 2007, 09:57:27 PM
Back then we thought Dubrovnik came after BF--we didn't have the Lithuania or Florence stuff then but it is a start!!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 27, 2007, 09:58:45 PM
yes definitely  :cmas27

dubrovnik - florence flights...  

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 27, 2007, 10:16:28 PM
I may have to kill you now....
:touche:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 27, 2007, 10:22:19 PM
Patlini

Some of those flights look really, really good.  With time for customs and cab rides into the city to match local reports.

So I hope the schedules will match, because into DBV I am having no luck with Airwise.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 27, 2007, 11:49:49 PM
welcome to TAR detective world Patlini  :hearts:! Your such a wonderful helper :gj:  :cmas26
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 28, 2007, 01:53:56 AM
 :cheer: Congrats patlini!! :cheer:

You deserve it!  :flowers:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 28, 2007, 06:53:24 AM
whoo hooo :jumpy:

Thanks Guys - you made my day
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 28, 2007, 11:52:12 AM
ok getting from Dubrovnik to Florence

(seems to be a lot easier then getting into Dubrovnik)

From Dubrovnik to Frankfurt  seems to be the main hub.

7:20am  11:30am FRA OU 0631 / LH 2479* 
7:20am 11:30am FRA  OU 0631 / 0416 
7:30am  9:35am FRA   LH 2469* 
7:30am 9:35am FRA   OU 0418 


From Frankfurt to Florence 2 options

10:50 12:15 LH4060
12:15 13:45 LH4062


Flights to Prague

depart 7.30am arrive 12.55 there are 3 options

LH 2469* / 3260 
TP 9018* / 7939* 
OU 0418 / LH 3260 

all connecting in Frankfurt  see 7.30 departure above

From Prague to Florence

15:50 arrive 17:20  IG3622

Could the two TAR's have collided in Prague on the 20th?


Paris

7:30am  12:00pm   LH 2469* / AF 1519 
7:30am  12:00pm   OU 0418 / AF 1519 

interesting this connects through Frankfurt see above

but they could get
13:20  15:20  AF5042


connections through amdam wouldn't work 


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 28, 2007, 01:48:33 PM
where I'm going with all this is that there had been discussion that the 18th was a rest day in Lith.  Priming them up for 3/4 legs to come.

With the timings of the flights into Croatia and then out again into Florence, they could be easily checked in - in Florence early evening of the 20th.  Getting them out of Florence early on the 21st and onto India.

Florence has early flights to Frankfurt, London, Paris, Vienna and Amsterdam (all of which have direct flights to Delhi)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on November 29, 2007, 12:39:23 AM
Great find patlini !

I like this flight you found  the best now.  It gets Ron & Christina to that first cluebox on time.

It also allows them  to start the leg on the 19th.  My London flight required starting the day before.

The LOT sequence is much better.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 29, 2007, 12:53:19 AM
Would it have gone on the 18th as well?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on November 29, 2007, 01:35:00 AM
I don't know!

But the day that patlini has used is equivalent to Thursday July 19th, 2007.  It is just one year ahead in 2008
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 29, 2007, 02:00:44 AM
We are lucky to have patlini  :cmas26! Good job patlini !
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on November 29, 2007, 09:32:59 AM
patlini totally rocks! :cmas16 :cmas16 :cmas9 :cmas9
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 29, 2007, 09:43:08 AM
Cheers Guys  :cmas51

I don't know!

But the day that patlini has used is equivalent to Thursday July 19th, 2007.  It is just one year ahead in 2008

yeah next year is a leap year so +2 days. That threw me initally too.

Any thoughts apart from what apskip had speculated for locations in India?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 29, 2007, 11:05:37 AM
apskips master timeline is  back on page one of this thread pantini -- :kisses


Just for good measure
Lorena & Jason~

TVGuide.com: At least you got to race for a week and a half. How long were you actually in Burkina Faso?
Lorena: Three days.
tvguide (http://www.tvguide.com/News/amazing-race-12/071129-02)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 29, 2007, 06:07:49 PM
APSKIP is BACK!!! :yess: :hearts: :jumpy: :hearts: :yess:

I am NEVER doing flights again! :happy:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 29, 2007, 06:25:20 PM
YIPPEEE  :jumpy:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 29, 2007, 07:14:43 PM
sorry no

but it could be a way out via Frankfurt
http://www.kaunasair.lt/index.php?lang=2&m=2&p=220



patlini, I appreciate the efforts that you and Peach made during my absence. Interpreting flight data can be tricky. The RyanAir timetable information available through the above link does not help at all in providing an alternative to the route from Paris to Vilnius. It currently only gives the winter schedule, but it may not have been much different in mid-July. It shows 3 weekly flights FR1856 from Frankfurt to Kaunas, departing at 1830 and arriving 2145. Unfortunately, those 3 days are Monday, Friday, and Sunday, not Tuesday when July 17th was. It's highly unlikely that this was the way teams got to Kaunas and if they did they would be way behind.

NOTE - ADDED LATER:
Now, coming out back is also on those same days. FR1857 departs Kaunas 2210 and arrives Frankfurt 2330. That makes it useless unless the July schedule had additional days, in which case using it on Tuesday July 18 would be very interesting.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 29, 2007, 07:47:32 PM


patlini, I appreciate the efforts that you and Peach made during my absence. Interpreting flight data can be tricky. The RyanAir timetable information available through the above link does not help at all in providing an alternative to the route from Paris to Vilnius. It currently only gives the winter schedule, but it may not have been much different in mid-July. It shows 3 weekly flights from Frankfurt to Kaunas, departing at 1830 and arriving 2145. Unfortunately, those 3 days are Monday, Friday, and Sunday, not Tuesday when July 17th was. It's highly unlikely that this was the way teams got to Kaunas and if they did they would be way behind.

apskip - definitely agreed.  after living your world for the past 3 days I can see that

Welcome back
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 29, 2007, 08:01:16 PM
No matter patlini, we needed help and you stepped up. All and all you Rock!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 29, 2007, 08:15:34 PM
sorry no

but it could be a way out via Frankfurt

http://www.kaunasair.lt/index.php?lang=2&m=2&p=220



patlini, I appreciate the efforts that you and Peach made during my absence. Interpreting flight data can be tricky. The RyanAir timetable information available through the above link does not help at all in providing an alternative to the route from Paris to Vilnius. It currently only gives the winter schedule, but it may not have been much different in mid-July. It shows 3 weekly flights from Frankfurt to Kaunas, departing at 1830 and arriving 2145. Unfortunately, those 3 days are Monday, Friday, and Sunday, not Tuesday when July 17th was. It's highly unlikely that this was the way teams got to Kaunas and if they did they would be way behind.

I vote we all step back and let apskip see if what we did measures up at all!  :jumpy: :cmas9 :jumpy:

But if IIRC, patlini WAS saying there that we couldn't get INTO Kaunas but we just might be able to get out...

But now we can doublecheck everything: :yess:

WE need to see if Vilnius and/or Kaunas work to Florence 7/18  (outside chance in my mind that there is time for this but would solve some probs)

Can we then get Florence to Dubrovnik in our preferred schedule on 7/19 **

OR --in case Lithuania is a TBC or a 36 hour Pitstop--can we get Lithuania to Dubrovnik in our preferred schedule on 7/19 **

And lastly, can we get Dubrovnik to Florence on 7/20**

** see Patlini's excellent work too for input

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on November 29, 2007, 08:21:43 PM
 :cmas9 :cmas9 :cmas9 :cmas9 :cmas9 :cmas9 :jumpy: :jumpy: :jumpy: :yess: :yess: :yess: :yess: :cmas16 :cmas16 :cmas16

WELCOME BACK, APSKIP!!!!
  :cmas51 :cmas51 :cmas51 :cmas20 :cmas20 :cmas20 :cmas9 :cmas9 :cmas9 :waves: :waves: :waves: :waves:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 29, 2007, 08:32:44 PM
apskips master timeline is  back on page one of this thread pantini -- :kisses


Just for good measure
Lorena & Jason~

TVGuide.com: At least you got to race for a week and a half. How long were you actually in Burkina Faso?
Lorena: Three days.
tvguide (http://www.tvguide.com/News/amazing-race-12/071129-02)
3 days is also mentioned by one of the racers on the episode clips (can't remember which one). 
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on November 29, 2007, 08:33:52 PM
Apskip welcome back.....  Literally tried doing it for three hours and wanted to kill myself.....
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 29, 2007, 08:48:42 PM
I spent one whole day doing it and I had to take 2 Advil and go to bed! :groan:

SO glad our flight guru is back!

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 29, 2007, 08:52:25 PM
but we're all experts on getting around Europe in the summer now  :cmaslol

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 29, 2007, 08:57:50 PM
I have some other news as I have been carefully reviewing the good work done in my absence. The existence of the flight combination OK871 Vilnius Prague, OS 704 Prague Vienna, and OS7059(the key flight) Vienna Dubrovnik was based on July 17, 2008 schedule data. This is a good technique most of the time; however, I cannot verify the existence of OS7059 for Thursday July 19, 2007, nor can I for OS5221 which is the next flight Vienna to Dubrovnik. If that earlier flight did not exist, then the early flight combination from VNO arrives at 1540 instead of 1120. I have sent inquiries to both Austrian Airlines and to the Dubrovnik Airport tonight. We will have to wait for a response to see whether there was such a flight on 7/19/07. My conclusion is that the best you can do starting from VNO without that is:

VNO PRG  OK871  0600 0635
PRG ZAG  OK818  1200 1325
ZAG DBV  OU662  1445 1540  

The first flight into DBV, OU660, departs from Zagreb at 0930 on Thursdays only and arrives DBV 1025. In order to get on that flight, a team must overnight in Zagreb because you cannot fly into Zagreb early enough from Lithuania to make the connection. Through Vienna and through Frankfurt it does not work to be there by the evening of the 18th. And if you can leave early enough from Vilnius to overnight in Zagreb, then you could get all the way to Dubrovnik that evening on the late flight OU664 arriving DBV 2155. I cannot come up with a rational explanation for the observed spacing unless there were 3 charter flights from either Vilnius or better yet Kaunas airport to Dubrovnik on July 19.

NEW ADDITION - The information that one team got behind because they missed a connection by 5 minutes indicates that charter flights could not have been the sole mode. the critical bottleneck is the scarcity of flights Zagreb to Dubrovnik, so I am altering my proposal to be one charter aircraft that flies back and forth beetween Zagreb and Dubrovnik 3 times starting around 11am on July 19.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 29, 2007, 09:11:58 PM
Well that is a bummer..

What about these flights from patlini, apskip?  http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,13694.msg240490.html#msg240490

Esp the early LOT one?

And just to humor me--could we get them into/out of  SPLIT instead? On the 18th?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 29, 2007, 09:27:03 PM
Dubrovnik to Florence flights for July 20(my guess) are pretty easy to estimate. There are only 2 good options:

OU661 DBV ZAG  0640 0735
AZ545  ZAG MXP 1155 1325
AZ1694 MXP FLR 1515 1615

or

OU384 DBV FCO 1555 1700
AZ1681 FCO FLR 2130 2230

Some teams will get the early combination; others will not.

Florence to India is another easy one. Because I don't think the earliest possible flight combinations for July 21 are feasible unless it is a TBC, I am showing:

LH4059 FLR FRA 0950 1135
LH760 FRA DEL  1335  0115 +1

Trailing teams will have to take:

LH 4077 FLR MUC 1710 1835
LH 762  MUC DEL  1940 0740 +1

If teams go on to Jaisalmer via flying to Jodhpur and taking the train, there would be a bunching point at Delhia airport. The first flight does not leave until 9W 3311 departs DEL 1210 arrives JDH 1330.

 


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: gingerman28 on November 30, 2007, 09:18:55 AM
Have we had any thought that the teams might fly to one city, say Milano or Venice, and then drive themselves to Florence?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 30, 2007, 10:37:48 AM
GMAN, that isn't the way World Race Productions sets up travel even though it occasionally would result in earlier arrivals. In this case it is a long way to Florence by road from these cities:

Florence from Milan 190 miles

Florence from Rome 171 miles

Florence from Venice 160 miles

Flights to Venice are nonsensical since the best ones go through Rome to get there and schedules therefore can't be good. Fights to Milan from Dubrovnik start with:

DBV ZAG OU661 departing 0640 and connecting with ZAG MXP arriving 1325, obviously with a long layover in Zagreb.

There is one nonstop flight DBV to FCO(Rome), but it isn't until Friday afternoon: DBV FCO 1555 1700 OU384
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 30, 2007, 10:46:05 AM
I am now going to address the question from Peach on flights to Split. There are 4 daily flights on July 19 into Split from Zagreb(one more than to Dubrovnik):

OU650 0645 0730
OU654 1200 1255
OU380 1415 1500
OU656 2100 2145

Getting the first one is impossible unless a team is overnighting at Zagreb. The second one cannot be reached started from Vilnius in the morning. The third one is the one that the earliest teams on the 0600 flight VNO to PRG should be able to connect with. The fourth one would be for the laggard teams. Please note that I do not believe that any teams went to Split, so I regard this as an academic exercise. If teams did get to Split, they are only 120 miles from Dubrovnik and could get there by charter flight, bus, taxi, or U-drive car.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: gingerman28 on November 30, 2007, 11:27:21 AM
Don't forget that the teams took a long taxi-ride in Ireland and in BF for about 200 miles.  Driving in Italy is easy with the Autostradas so drive from Milano or Roma shouldn't be out of the question.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 30, 2007, 03:45:55 PM
GMAN, teams are required to get to a designated airport for departure. They are not allowed to deviate to gain an advantage. Remember AR10 on Zanzibar, where going back to the mainland by hydrofoil and then flying out of Dar-es-Salaam aiport would have resulted in a big advantage. It was not allowed due to the constraints imposed by the clue. Your proposal would not be either because there is an airport in Florence. Teams will be required by the clue to fly to it.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 30, 2007, 04:01:37 PM
Peach indicated
Quote
patlini WAS saying there that we couldn't get INTO Kaunas but we just might be able to get out...
Peach, please see my added note to post #136, which reviews the thrice weekly schedule Kaunas to Frankfurt and concludes that Monday/Friday/Sunday do not come close to being helpful. Only if there were additional days this summer would it be possible to fly out from Kaunas to Frankfurt on the late evening of July 18. Even with this the first flight from FRA to ZAG does nto get in until after the first flight from ZAG to DBV has left and the earliest possible arrival through Frankfurt is 340pm into Dubrovnik or 1255pm into Split.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on November 30, 2007, 04:15:50 PM
I don't want to jump the so called gun but if what I just posted in EP5 is correct as far as times as in -- putting the Siblings & Nic & Gramps in the back of the pack with perhaps JeNathan eliminated (we really need Chateau's shadow times) then theres no need to look for an extra day rather we are in for another 36 hour pitstop between the Lithuania & Croatia legs.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 30, 2007, 04:25:45 PM
Peach and patlini, your good work in my absence has caused me to research Air Baltic, which does not have anything of interest. However, Air Baltic's website sent me on to Air Estonia, which has an incredible flight nonstop from Tallinn, Estonia(the topmost of the 3 Baltic countries with Latvia in between and Lithuania on the bottom). I discovered that Tallinn is the only city from which Air Estonia flies to Dubrovnik. The flight leaves at 0730 and arrives DBV 0930. Unfortunately it is only twice a week on Monday and Friday in 2008, not clear which days in 2007 but probably the same. That does not help when we are looking for something on Thursday July 19, 2007. To connect to this flight, there are 3 daily flights from VNO to TLL, but the only one that makes sense would be BT335 on Wednesday departing VNO 1830 and arriving TLL 2000, with an overnight at or near that airport.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on November 30, 2007, 04:28:52 PM
apskip - anyluck with air lot?

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 30, 2007, 04:45:46 PM
I don't know if I ever put up my best flight selections for Vilnius after connecting in CDG. The flight from OUA arrives CDG 0610 on Tuesday July 17. CDG is known to be difficult for a close connection. I am giving teams 1 hour 50 minutes to get onto:

AF1340 CDG AMS 0800 0920, connecting to
TE461  AMS VNO 1010 1325

There are several other choices, but all of them are earlier departures from CDG to arrive at 1325. One or two later ones arrive 1355 or 1410, but then it's a big gap to 1745. This could be where some of the separation between teams starts.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on November 30, 2007, 06:59:55 PM
Okay--thank you for all that work apskip!! Bur what do you think of the LOT flights? ???

Let me see if I can summarize what we have here and y'all correct me if I am wrong.

In terms of whether we can come up with some combo of flights which meets our time needs:

CDG to Vilnius   arr approx 1325 :yes:

Vilnius to Dubrovnik X

    -- need to review LOT flight though
    -- Charters are always possible--but they are frequently of the pull a number and go 1-2-3 variety. In this case, we believe we have TK/Rachel "missing a flight by five minutes" to drop from 1st place into the middle of the pack. It is possible that this info was not heard correctly--but if it was--it sure sound like commercial flights rather than charters, doesn't it?

Dubrovnik to Florence :yes: but late-ish arrivals

Florence onto India :yes:

Do I have that much right?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: gingerman28 on November 30, 2007, 08:06:40 PM
GMAN, teams are required to get to a designated airport for departure. They are not allowed to deviate to gain an advantage. Remember AR10 on Zanzibar, where going back to the mainland by hydrofoil and then flying out of Dar-es-Salaam aiport would have resulted in a big advantage. It was not allowed due to the constraints imposed by the clue. Your proposal would not be either because there is an airport in Florence. Teams will be required by the clue to fly to it.

Just depends on what the clue tells them to do; "Fly to Milan.  Find car with clue.  Drive to Florence....etc."  Just could be the way TPTB want it to play.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on November 30, 2007, 09:27:38 PM
Peach and CHATEAU, I have studied CHATEAU's route through London and have concluded that it is feasible but risky starting from Vilnius on the morning of Thursday July 19. I could only verify the existence of BA2882, which is a Tuesday and Thursday flight at the time indicated below and a Sunday flight 2 hours earlier. The other flight that Chateau listed apparently did not fly at all that week. Here is what teams could take:

LO774  VNO WAW 0625 0650
CO255 WAW LGW 0825 1000
BA2882 LGW DBV 1125 1510

Note that this would get teams in 30 minutes sooner than those going VNO VIE ZAG DBV and arriving 1540. It is the only nonstop from London to Dubrovnik that I can now find(I did miss it earlier as one of my sources does not show it because it has 3 legs and you have to put those connections together manually and another of my sources is prone to requiring it to be the correct day-of-the-week to be useful).

NOTE: Peach is correct below. I did mean July 19.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on December 01, 2007, 08:40:16 AM
Peach

I think your summary is correct.

I doubt the charter flights in europe, just because there are so many options available on airlines.  But maybe "the missed by 5 minutes" is that they were 5 minutes off pulling a ticket in the right order.  Tk and Rachel could have gotten lost on the way to the airport  :cmas18 (from what i've seen of their racing I wouldn't put it past this directionally challenged pair)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on December 01, 2007, 07:39:03 PM
I think apskip has a typo and means Thurs July 19.

And I don't know what to think about these flights. It makes me want to send them somewhere else first to get the arrival times in Dubrovnik right.  If Lithuania isn't a 36 hour Pitstop we have one day to play with. :pull:

They just better show us flight #'s this week! Somehow they must have a secret flight schedule! :lol:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on December 08, 2007, 03:14:08 PM
apskip - what do you think of it being a TBC and getting out to India on July 20th?  As I regulate  most of the flights I'd looked at left around lunchtime to Delhi (the major European hubs)  but I do recall my mother-in-law's flight to mumbai recently was an evening flight from London.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 08, 2007, 04:04:38 PM
patlini, they are not going to get in to Florence and out to India on the same day. It isn't going to happen. You are correct in believing that the major flights from Europe to Delhi depart around noon, but some are as early as 1030. What you are missing is that with your arrival times into Florence of 1215pm and 145pm you already have a negative connect time, you aren't at a major hub, and no tasks have been completed in Florence. It is obvious that the departure from Florence could not be before evening of July 20 if TBC and morning of July 21 if elim. I expect elim.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on December 08, 2007, 05:10:07 PM
patlini, they are not going to get in to Florence and out to India on the same day. It isn't going to happen. You are correct in believing that the major flights from Europe to Delhi depart around noon, but some are as early as 1030. What you are missing is that with your arrival times into Florence of 1215pm and 145pm you already have a negative connect time, you aren't at a major hub, and no tasks have been completed in Florence. It is obvious that the departure from Florence could not be before evening of July 20 if TBC and morning of July 21 if elim. I expect elim.

back to back India?
something like this?

EP1 elim 11- Ari/Staella=10 teams left
EP2 elim 10-the Ministers = 9 teams left
EP3 elim 9 the Sisters= 8 teams left
EP4 elim 8- Lorena/Jason=7 teams left
EP5 elim 7- The Blonds =6 teams left
EP6 elim 6 -insert team = 5 teams left
EP7 Florence elim 5- insert team =4 teams left
EP8 India TBC? 4 teams TBC
EP9 India to Japan elim 4- insert team =3 teams left
EP10 Japan to Taiwan TBC final 3
EP11 Taiwan to Alaska final 3 = winners
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on December 09, 2007, 08:58:12 AM
Puddin

that timeline is looking the most likely.  I do like TBC's in India especially long train rides :cmas22
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 09, 2007, 10:30:31 PM
Peach and patlini, your requests for me to take a hard look at LOT (after Air Baltic and others that I did analyze) have finally been completed. Unfortunately, I needed a little help from the episode because what is involved here are 3 leg double connection routes. The way in which 3 teams were actually successful in reaching Dubrovnik as scheduled. including OS7059 which did not exist on July 19 according to my source but which is in the Austrian Airlines current schedule:

Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The aborted route that could have work if arrival in Prague within 45 minutes of schedule had happened was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871
Prague Vienna 0730 0825 OK684
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

 There were several connecting opportunities from Prague to Zagreb, but one sensible approach would be the nonstop flight OK818 departing PRG 1200 arriving ZAG 1335. That leave one hour for the connection. However, TK and Rachel elected to continue through Vienna.
The first flight was easy: OS704 0840 0945
The next flight does not exist per my source, but does in the current Austrian Airlines schedule: OS731 dep. VIE 1315 arr. DBV 1440


Don and Nic took the OK818 routing direct to Zagreb:

OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

They arrive 35 minutes behind the Don and Nic, who arrive 65 mintues behind TK and Rachel.

Complicated stuff!

NOTE: This was revised after Ken issued a reminder that both TK and Rachel and Don and Nic had been on the Prague flight(I had originally confused myself with a Frankfurt route out of Vilnius for Don and Nic, similar to their route in to Vilnius). Thanks, Ken.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on December 09, 2007, 11:08:27 PM
Cheers apskip

like you said complicated stuff and the screened episode/pit stop times really didn't help much
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 10, 2007, 07:39:49 AM
Ah, but that is not correct, patlini. Knowing the first post-Vilnius city in each route made the puzzle much easier to solve, as all routes had to go through Zagreb at known times or through Vienna at one time. I really should have been able to do the leading 3 teams route earlier, but I just couldn't find the flight from Warsaw to Vienna. Probably the reason is that my main source did not identify the Vienna to Dubrovnik 1000 to 1120 flight on its own. It routes you through Zagreb and you have to be there well before 930am, which is impossible. Even well- programmed computer systems have their errors.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on December 10, 2007, 06:55:36 PM
Nice work apskip!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: serendipity on December 12, 2007, 10:24:37 AM
Dubrovnik to Florence flights for July 20(my guess) are pretty easy to estimate. There are only 2 good options:

OU661 DBV ZAG  0640 0735
AZ545  ZAG MXP 1155 1325
AZ1694 MXP FLR 1515 1615

or

OU384 DBV FCO 1555 1700
AZ1681 FCO FLR 2130 2230

Some teams will get the early combination; others will not.


apskip, after reading the flight schedule you proposed, I wonder if Nicolas/Donald can catch up with the teams in front? According to Chateau's time, it seemed they probably arrived the pit stop in Dubrovnik at around 1830-1900, so assuming a 12 hour pit stop, they will start the next leg at 0630-0700, which makes them impossible to make the first flight.

So are there any option for them other than the second one you suggest, since they are in Italy in daylight from the preview? Or all teams start the tasks on 21 July?

Edited: Just try to search some flights on the web... wondering if this is possible?

20 Jul 2007
DBV FRA 0730 0935 LH2469
FRA FLR 1050 1220 LH4060
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 12, 2007, 01:34:41 PM
serendipity, thank you for identifying another whole in the database that I rely on for routine historical airline information. That database has enough errors to resemble Swiss cheese right now. Yes, your flight combination like the ones suggested through Frankfurt to get to Dubrovnik(but not used except by Azaria and Hendekea who were left with few options) is excellent and much better than the morning departure to ZAG that I showed.  

If there is an airport crunch and limited capacity on OU418(the real flight number DBV FRA; LH2469 is the code-share version), then teams arriving early enough to know that could do this instead:

OU661 DBV ZAG 0640 0735
OU416 ZAG FRA 0955 1130
LH4062 FRA FLR 1230 1400, which will arrive 100 minutes after the earlier flight from Frankfurt to Florence.

I have reexamined my listed flight combinations and I see that the afternoon connection through Rome now appears to have a quicker arrival at 1850:

OU384 DBV FCO 1555 1700 (unchanged)
AZ1679 FCO FLR 1740 1850 (replaces AZ1681, the 2130 flight)

Can Nic and Donald make either of the  morning flight combinations? Possibly not because they would have to be at the airport(quite close to tthe pitstop) by 7am. If they could not get out on the early flights, then here are some later possible combinations:

OU669 DBV ZAG 1300 1355
LH3483 ZAG FRA 1435 1620
LH4064(not a legal connection; only possible if LH3483 arrives quite early) FRA FLR 1630 1800 or LH4066 2105 2235

OU669 DBV ZAG 1300 1355
OU414 ZAG FRA 1755 1930
LH4066 FRA FLR 2105 2235

These combinations are probably going to result in a deficit to my previous routing through Rome arriving Florence 1850. Nevertheless, if stuck in DBV I might take the shot at routing through Frankfurt because there is that slim chance that you can make LH4064 and shave 3.5 hours off your deficit.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 13, 2007, 12:01:04 PM
After having recently responded to zachattack308 and receiving an inquiry from Peach, I think it's time to do this:

July 22 FLIGHTS FROM FLORENCE TO DELHI

0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1025 2300 AF148 CDG DEL

0715 0855 OS538 FLR VIE
1155 2345 OS33 VIE DEL

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1105 2330 KL871 AMS DEL

July 22 FLIGHTS FROM FLORENCE TO MUMBAI

0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0715 0855 OS538 FLR VIE
1100 2320 OS35 VIE BOM

0735 0825 AZ1699 FLR MXP
1030 2310 AZ720 MXP BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on December 13, 2007, 12:37:57 PM
Thanks apskip!

That helps a lot because now we (sorta--I don't trust the times anymore thanks to TPTB) know that teams have to hit the mat by late afternoon in order to make those AM flights on the 22nd.

And that fits much better with a possible Florence Pitstop.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on December 13, 2007, 01:13:45 PM
Peach, Apskip that's what I was thinking to.

looks like TPTB have planned this race out better thus the uneven pit stop times.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on December 13, 2007, 11:35:55 PM
Or making up times to fit their own purposes.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on December 14, 2007, 08:37:37 PM
Or making up times to fit their own purposes.

like an away day in Split...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 20, 2007, 01:23:30 AM
I have an idea on how to make this fit:  (note that Osaka is in the Finale)

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on December 20, 2007, 01:32:12 AM
I think flight info from apskip et al has shown that the route has to be India--Osaka--Taiwan to make the flights work...

But WOW do I love that sheet!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on December 20, 2007, 09:30:17 AM
Maybe Chateau has ideas of his own peach? Very nice Chateau, thankyou  :cmas20 I like!!

I have an idea on how to make this fit:  (note that Osaka is in the Finale)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on December 20, 2007, 09:43:38 AM
ditto Chateau

I like it.
That way you can be working on a spreadsheet at work  :cmas27

(instead of scouring google maps and flickr  :cmas50)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on December 20, 2007, 09:46:49 AM
Tell us more, Chateau?

I want one of those sheets--wow wow wow!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 20, 2007, 10:30:55 AM
Quote
I think flight info from apskip et al has shown that the route has to be India--Osaka--Taiwan to make the flights work...

Here it is both ways.  If you go Taiwan last then you get a squeeze for India and Osaka before Taiwan.  And you get 38 hours for activities in Taiwan (that is way too long).

Who cares if you have to use Taiwan for the best flight from Osaka to Alaska?

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on December 20, 2007, 10:53:08 AM
Very interesting! I see how it could go...

But the 38 hours is puzzling me--couldn't that be used up by an extended Pitstop somewhere?

    oh wait--I see--it is because we believe teams were seen 7/27 about noon at Taipei--right?

And won't either Osaka or Taipei have to be a TBC? (whichever is last before Alaska).  Then you don't get the Pitstop hours there...

Does it still work if for instance whichever is first is a longer Pitstop to let them recover from the (assumed)  TBC India leg? And then no Pitstop in the whichever is last before Alaska leg--due to the second TBC?

Or do you think we are having 2 TBC's at all?? ???

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 20, 2007, 11:02:37 AM
Quote
And won't either Osaka or Taipei have to be a TBC? (whichever is last before Alaska).

You're right.  I forgot about that.  I did that spreadsheet back in October.

Here it is with TBC folded in.  It does not change the conclusion for me. 

Osaka in the Finale!   :mas25

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on December 20, 2007, 11:14:27 AM
Okay one more question--why would they have 23 hours in Osaka for tasks now? Or could Taipei just be a 24-36 hour Pitstop--do flights still work?

But hey--sounds like somebody better start beating Boingo's drum!!  :cmaslol :cmaslol

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 20, 2007, 09:46:12 PM
CHATEAU, you know that I have a lot of respect for your thoughts on timelines. However, there are several points to keep in mind with respect to whether Osaka precedes Taipei(my thesis) or vice-versa(yours):

1. I believe that the schedule in Girdwood for July 29 was so tight that World Race Productions could not afford to jeopardize that with a late same-day arrival of the F3 teams from Taiwan. I have scheduled that on July 28 as a result, one day before you have.

2. Although there was backtracking from Vilnius to Croatia and lesser backtracking is about to happen from Dubrovnik to Florence and some more possibly to the European hub city (probably FRA, CDG, or AMS, all west of Florence) for the flight to India, I cannot subscribe to your theory that World Race Productions will allow a Taipei to Osaka to Taipei routing. This makes no sense, so they won't do it.

3. With the current timing of arrival in India on July 23(after TBC I expect in Florence), 2 days probable to do whatever in India, one half day to get to Osaka, one day for Osaka, hours to get to Taipei, and at a minimum hours needed(due to TBC) in Taipei, add that all up and you get July 27. We need an extra 24 hour pit stop in Osaka or multiple hours of operation delays in Taipei adding up to one day. That would take it to the afternoon of July 28 for the departure of the China Airlines flight 11 to Anchorage.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 20, 2007, 11:21:29 PM
Backtracking!

I'll show you backtracking:

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 21, 2007, 11:25:39 AM
I can't help it that Taiwan is southwest of Japan. But WRP can help it to not retrace the Osaka to Taipei airspace.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 24, 2007, 03:40:36 PM
Let me further cement the inevitable news that Taiwan directly follows India and precedes Osaka.   :cmas10

1)  We have that on the eighth leg of the race 5 teams head into India (race date was Sunday, July 22nd).  And on December 30th we will see one of those five eliminated. 
2)  We can conclude that it is Ron & Christina who are eliminated based on this spoiler statement regarding teams seen and heard at Taipei 101:
Quote
*He THINKS that there was an Asian team far behind or eliminated already because he was a good listener. 
*When he was walking into Taipei 101, he was literally 2 feet away from the blond racer and he heard the girl say something like “I wonder what the Asians would say if they came to this place”. 
3)  On January 6th we will see the ninth leg of the race under the title "I Just Hope He Doesn't Croak On Us".  This leg will also be in India but it does not mater exactly where or even it turns out to not be India.
4)  In this leg there will be 4 teams and the title strongly suggests the implementation of the Intersection of teams into two pairs.  The title seems to make Donald the subject since he is the only remaining senior at that point.
5)  Supposition  Yes, I do have a supposition here in the logic:  Suppose that this ninth leg of the race does end with the 2nd of two NEL's on the race.  So parts of what follows are dependent on that supposition being true.
6)  On January 13th we will see the 10th leg of the race with 4 teams still racing.  And they are still racing as Intersected pairs.
7)  The statement of the Taiwan spoiler also says:
Quote
*When he was planning to shop in 101 at noon, he saw this man and women (couples)  ran out of the taxi and looked up at Taipei 101.
*He also saw 2 camera men running with them.
*However, he found it weird that the couples did not enter the Taipei 101 and were actually waiting for someone.
*He describes the couple as a brunette woman and a man.  He said that the man seemed very athletic and fit.
*Since he saw that there were camera men around, he notices that this might be on TV.
*He continued to stay for 10 minutes and another group came which he describes as another couple which consists of a blond girl. 
8)  This nails down the conclusion that teams were still intersected.  Specifically that Nate & Jenn were paired to TK & Rachel.  It also means that either Kynt or Vyxsin is responsible for the regrettable quote about croaking Don.

Therefore the Taiwan leg is the 10th leg of the race that we will see on January 13th.

 :mas25

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 26, 2007, 11:32:13 AM
REVISED AR12 TIMELINE:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345
BA278   LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop
15 REST DAY

4.  16  Bouda Pelegtanga to OUA by road.
 
5. OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1
17 CDG to AMS or FRA or PRG to VNO arrivals between 1325 and 1410
 
18 REST DAY

6. All of these flights are on July 19th
 Top 3 teams used this route:
 Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The route that was altered by the late arrival in Prague for TK and Rachel was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871(note: actually 0720 arrival)
Prague Vienna OS704 0840 0945
Vienna Dubrovnik OS731 1315 1440 (Note: not valid per my sources, but OK per Austrian Airlines current schedule)

Don and Nic took:

OK871 0600 0635 VNO PRG (note: actually 0720 arrival)
OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

7. 20 Teams took 4.5 hour buses from 0500 to 0800 to split, then the SNAV ferry at 1700 arriving 2140 to Ancona, then U-drive cars from Ancona at least 212 miles to Empoli(west of Florence).

8. Choice of several flight possiblities from Florence to Mumbai:
22 0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0715 0855 OS538 FLR VIE
1100 2320 OS35 VIE BOM

0735 0825 AZ1699 FLR MXP
1030 2310 AZ720 MXP BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
 
Mumbai tasks on the 23rd, then 24 hour pitstop.

9. 24 AI314 BOM KIX 2025 1140+1

25 tasks in Osaka

26 AM pitstop release from Osaka;
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505

Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then 36 hour extended pitstop
 
28 TPE to ANC CI11 0245 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)

FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

The open issue with the above timeline is what happened to the missing NEL/TBC. A possible solution is to use it to have a double leg in India and then combine Osaka and Taipei into one leg. I don't show that because I am not predicting that it happened. I am also not predicting the Taipei to Osaka route that CHATEAU is. He has his reasons and I just do not agree that they are compelling over the logistical reasons underlying the route as shown above.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 28, 2007, 05:23:05 PM
Here's something new and different, an analysis of total mileage so far for AR12:

The air portion is calculated in nautical miles since that's the way the airlines report mileage, a tricky way of minimizing your frequent flyer miles. Here is what it is by leg:

1. LAX to SNN via DUB 4693
    LAX to SNN via LHR  5046

2. SNN to AMS via DUB 510

3. AMS to OUA via CDG 2424

4. not applicable

5. OUA to VNO via CDG and AMS 3167

6. VNO to DBV via VIE 850
    VNO to DBV via PRG and VIE 970
    VNO to DBV via PRG and ZAG 987
    VNO to DBV via AMS and FRA 1272

7. SNAV ship SPLIT TO ANCONA 100 nautical miles

If you want to take the sum of all the legs and convert to regular miles, you can multiply by 1.15. My guess is that World Race Productions is thinking regular miles in their count of how many miles AR12 has travelled.

We are by no means done, as there are some smaller but still significant miles to be counted on land:

1. Playboy Club to LAX  13
    Shannon Airport to dock to Innis Mor plus dock to Innis Mor to Cleggan Farms to Connemara Heritage Center 100

2. Clifden to Shannon 100

3. train to Bingo 25

4. car Bingo to Bouda Pelegtanga 100
    car Bouda Pelegtanga to Ouagadougou 100

5. car Vilnius to Trakai(note - not shown on the show, but teams did it) 25
    car Trakai to Vilnius 25

6. taxi in from Dubrovnik airport and up to pitstop and then back to town 30

7. Bus Dubrovnik to Split 120
    Car Ancona to Empoli minimum 200, max. unknown
    Car Empoli to Vinci 7
    Car Vinci to Florence 29

    For the Fast Forward, the last two entries are replaced by Car Empoli to Florence 20


    


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 30, 2007, 10:35:48 PM
With the 6am start of the tasks in Mumbai, there is no possibility that any team got done early enough to get onto Air India flight 310 departing at 810pm or 710pm depending on which source you use. Teams just couldn't blow throw Mumbai in one hour with those tasks and the traffic between tasks.

So, that leaves me with the need to readjust flights out of Mumbai. The best combination I can find in general later in the evening on Monday July 23 is:

TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
TG600 BKK HKG 0800 1145
JL702 HKG KIX  1155 1905

The only problem with this is that it doesn't provide any opportunity for TK and Rachel to break off and get ahead. However, I have the answer for that. I believe that they use their knowledge from a travel agent or airline agent to have ticketed a break from the others in Hong Kong by not going directly to Osaka but through Taipei to Osaka and make an easy 1 hour 55 minute connection:

TG630  HKG ICN 0725 1155
EG212 ICN KIX   1430 1750

This is a 4-leg triple connection route, but so what. They will arrive 75 minutes before the other teams.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Neobie on December 30, 2007, 10:41:21 PM
Just a little nitpicking... The direct flight to Osaka leaves at 2.55pm?

I'm wondering... Would Nic/Donald say "we haven't seen them at the airport" if they were together from Mumbai to Hong Kong, before TK/Rachel dash off to Incheon?

Hmm... How many days are involved here? I'm a little lost...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on December 30, 2007, 10:47:51 PM
This could be a little bit of creative editing.

Maybe Rachel and TK book their flight and just leave the airport and the other teams start freaking out because they think they got on an earlier flight.

Kind of like in the Moroccan leg of TAR10 all the teams were having a panic attack because Dustin and Kandice weren't at the airport yet.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Neobie on December 30, 2007, 10:56:39 PM
But the teams are wondering about TK/Rachel in Hong Kong, no?

Confused! :pull The Bangkok flight arrives in Taipei (Incheon?) at 21:45 and the flight from there to Osaka leaves at 07:25? :'(
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on December 30, 2007, 11:09:04 PM
Just a little nitpicking... The direct flight to Osaka leaves at 2.55pm?

I'm wondering... Would Nic/Donald say "we haven't seen them at the airport" if they were together from Mumbai to Hong Kong, before TK/Rachel dash off to Incheon?

Hmm... How many days are involved here? I'm a little lost...

Neobie the Taiwan sighting was Taipei,Date July 27th, Alaska puts us at the 29th << solid , BVM if he's to be believed *cough*not*cough* says the race was 21 days  :res: so Osaka 23rd? 24th? this i'm not sure about.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 30, 2007, 11:23:17 PM
Major crow munching going on here  :-[

I'll get you a beer at TARcon Apskip!

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kogs on December 30, 2007, 11:27:18 PM
Major crow munching going on here  :-[

I'll get you a beer at TARcon Apskip!

its more like using flight logic chatue, its ok we forgive you
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on December 30, 2007, 11:29:45 PM
Major crow munching going on here  :-[

I'll get you a beer at TARcon Apskip!
If your passing out presents Chateau then I want to give you something  :flowers:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 30, 2007, 11:31:09 PM
I haven't thought of anything yet.  But I want to do something Gothic. 
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on December 30, 2007, 11:49:49 PM
We need to slip in another day.  From TWoP, we are directed to this.  And it tells us that the teams did their tasks on July 24th in Mumbai.  So the pitstop in Florence was 36 hours long.

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on December 30, 2007, 11:53:04 PM
I haven't thought of anything yet.  But I want to do something Gothic

(http://www.gothtronic.com/Goth/img_/Music1/sub/krankhaus_cover-400.jpg)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on December 30, 2007, 11:54:18 PM
Nice shot Chateau! and in the insider clips Phil is in Mumbai a full day ahead of the teams setting up the speed bump.

good job!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Slowhatch on December 31, 2007, 12:17:19 AM
 :tup: Yep, it's the real deal. At first I thought it was an "amazing" edition. But go here (http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Client.asp?skin=pastissues2&enter=LowLevel&AW=1199080872812), dial up 24 July and look at page 20 ("business by bids").
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on December 31, 2007, 12:23:18 AM
How did you ever find that Slowhatch!!??  :jam:

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Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on December 31, 2007, 12:25:31 AM
woah great find slowhatch!
haha imagine somebody found it before the episode aired? That would have been cool.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kiwi Jay on December 31, 2007, 12:56:22 AM
may I ask how you got a photo like that??
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Slowhatch on December 31, 2007, 12:58:07 AM
Quote
may I ask how you got a photo like that??
Me, Puddin or Michael?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kiwi Jay on December 31, 2007, 01:06:36 AM
u!!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Slowhatch on December 31, 2007, 01:17:23 AM
I'm great at finding stuff once somebody tells me where it is.  :-[  :lol3: The Times of India is one of those rare papers that offers up archives (image archives at that) for free. It's something you couldn't have found on a normal web search. I just finished googling "chauhan alteration tailors" and got just three hits (for now), including this interesting one (http://mumbai.metblogs.com/) with some local slang--"cylinder-wallah," etc. Notice the wording of the ad: it was designed not only to foil us but also any curious people in Mumbai who might come out to watch.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on December 31, 2007, 01:26:41 AM
We're lucky to have you here Slowhatch, very impressive!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 31, 2007, 08:19:48 AM
CHATEAU, don't let it bother you. Those of us who forecast inherently risky events are always going to make both big and little mistakes. It goes with the territory. All you can do is keep up the good work. The only RFF poster I know who is practically perfect is puddin. She does it with intelligence, hard work, and many excellent connections to people in the know.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 31, 2007, 08:25:22 AM
Taking my own advice, I am going to put myself out there one more time and predict that the NEL or TBC will be at the end of the Osaka leg. This is different from my position which was initially post #28 on this thread Nov. 19. The logic for this is complelling. Teams do not get to Osaka until 6 to 7pm. They are not likely to finish all tasks by midnight; some hours of operation is going to catch them.  However, they should finish by mid-morning of July 26. That gives them time to get the TBC and to the airport to take one of the 3 flights to Taipei in the late morning/early/afternoon time frame. It gets them to the Taipei 101 building for the sighting that we know occurred. After the rest of the Taipei tasks, there will have to be a 24 hour extended pitstop prior to the flight to Anchorage. See my latest timeline to understand why.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 31, 2007, 08:44:48 AM
My latest timeline revision(only slightly with the dates from Florence departure on):

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345
BA278   LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930;  
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop
15 REST DAY

4.  16  Bouda Pelegtanga to OUA by road.
 
5. OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1
17 CDG to AMS or FRA or PRG to VNO arrivals between 1325 and 1410
  
18 REST DAY

6. All of these flights are on July 19th
 Top 3 teams used this route:
 Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The route that was altered by the late arrival in Prague for TK and Rachel was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871(note: actually 0720 arrival)
Prague Vienna OS704 0840 0945
Vienna Dubrovnik OS731 1315 1440 (Note: not valid per my sources, but OK per Austrian Airlines current schedule)

Don and Nic took:

OK871 0600 0635 VNO PRG (note: actually 0720 arrival)
OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

7. 20 Teams took 4.5 hour buses from 0500 to 0800 to split, then the SNAV ferry at 1700 arriving 2140 to Ancona, then U-drive cars from Ancona at least 212 miles to Empoli(west of Florence).
Pitstop in florence, then extended 36 hour rest period

8. Choice of several flight possiblities from Florence to Mumbai:
23 0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
 
Mumbai tasks on the 24th, then 12 hour pitstop.

9. Most of the teams take:
24 TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
25 TG600 BKK HKG 0800 1145
     CX564 HKG KIX 1310 1910

except for TK and Rachel, who I believe take this combination:
24 TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
25 TG630 BKK TPE 0725 1155
     EG212 TPE KIX   1430 1750

25 tasks in Osaka start and finish next morning, then TBC

26 AM release from Osaka;
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505

26 Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then 24 hour extended pitstop
 
28 TPE to ANC CI11 0245 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)

FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

NOTE: This version assumes that teams would not reach pitstop before 10pm(a good bet if they aren't arriving until 7pm). An alternate has themfinishing then and leaving Osaka after an extended 36 hour pitstop on July 27 on the above flights(see July 26 above), then having a normal 12 hour pitstop and a TBC after the TPE leg. I like this version better.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: gingerman28 on December 31, 2007, 11:26:33 AM
Ep 9 travel dates should be 24 and 25 (not 23 and 24)

You have most teams arriving in Hong Kong at 1145 and leaving for Osaka at 1155.  A ten minute connection is impossible.  Do they lay over for 24 hours?

Same for Tk and Rachel.  They arrive in Hong Kong at 1145 and leave for ICN  at 0725.  Another 20 hour layover?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on December 31, 2007, 12:47:19 PM
GMAN, you are absolutely right. I messed up some dates and I have had to change the flight number to a later one that gets into Osaka 5 minutes later than the one I originally showed.

It is kind of a shame to have my 1000th post this way, but keeping the Timeline as good as it can be is really important.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 01, 2008, 04:53:08 PM
I have had two knockout punches today relating to race timing, so please bear with me on this rambling. Let's start with the flight from Taipei to Anchorage. It was so simple, but it is appears that I reversed the order of the cities, because CI11 is the flight from ANC to TPE, not the reverse direction that we need. Next, my prime source is showing CI12 on SATURDAY July 28, but I do not believe it because it also showed x136, which is airline lingo means not on Monday, Wednesday or Saturday. Where does that leave us? It appears to leave us without a Saturday flight, forcing teams to fly to Anchorage on Sunday July 29 and then after arriving go straight to some difficult tasks in the Girdwood area that can only happen that day.

OK, so the second punch was CHATEAU's timing of a photo in the 4 to 5 pm range(he states it a little wider, but this is close enough for my purpose) in Osaka. Since teams cannot arrive that early on July 25, that means the photo must be July 26. The implication of that is that my theory of completing Osaka tasks by mid to late morning on the 26th is no longer valid, at least not for Donald and Nicolas. That puts the pitstop in the late afternoon.

Where does that leave us? If it's the TBC I expect then it won't be too bad. Teams can catch one of two flights to Taipei from Kansai International Airport(the main one for overseas):

NW69  1840 2050
EG217 1855 2110

However, if not a TBC then the pitstop will hold teams until morning of the 27th. At that point, there are no good options for flying from Kansai to Taipei. They will have to use an alternate airport, such as Itami. Here is a flight combination that would make sense:

ITM FUK JL2051 0740 0855
FUK TPE CX511 1025 1205

If teams have the TBC they will arrive Taipei evening of the 26th; if there is an elimination in Osaka they will arrive at noon on the 27th. Tasks will then carry them through the afternoon or evening. If there was a TBC then it's easy to see a 36 hour extended pitstop until the morning of July 29; if not then I have a potential problem because teams cannot lay over until the nonstop Taipei to Anchorage flight when if they have to do a TBC at Taipei. If it is non-elim then that problem goes away and they can also get the 36 hour extended pitstop.

The nonstop flight from TPE to ANC is on Sunday July 29, CI12 leaving at 1625 and arriving same day July 29 in Anchorage at 750am due to the wonders of the International Date Line.  
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 01, 2008, 06:12:50 PM
Phil tells us that there is one more NonElim and I can't see that happening in the final 3 as in EP10/11 so it must come this week EP9. We can't have a TBC Osaka to Taiwan or a TBC Taiwan to Alaska if someone is to be eliminated then it has to be EP10 to give us our final 3.

*just rambling*

July 26th Osaka NEL
July 27th Taiwan Elim, speed bump? down to the final 3
Jully 29th Taiwan to Alaska final 3 =winner

Also after all the BS that BVM has reported do we still believe the race completes in 21 days?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 01, 2008, 06:16:27 PM
I don't know puddin -- I think 21 days seems kind of fast --

OT:
Alaska is 100% the finish line right?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 01, 2008, 06:24:27 PM
I don't know puddin -- I think 21 days seems kind of fast --

OT:
Alaska is 100% the finish line right?
I don't think it is but who knows? I still like the Playboy mansion but thats just me.  :duno:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 01, 2008, 06:38:00 PM
We 100% know that teams were in Girdwood Alaska on July 29.

We have BVM's word (no non-elims, monsoons, 21 days... :lol:) for a 21 day race.

We also know that most of the myspace crew logged back in by July 31-Aug 1, right? None on the 30th or do we know that?

I would LOVE it if they went somewhere else for the finale. I think there is a lot going on that day if they don't arrive till that AM, have to get to Girdwood, do a river trip and a glacier climb, and have to run around Anchorage too.

Plus would they really want to bring the guys in Portugal all the way to Alaska?
Could happen but...

I hate the idea of the Playboy Mansion again though! :lol3:


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 01, 2008, 06:43:22 PM
OT:

Well I always thought, in the back of my mind anyway, that Jonathan Baker knew something with Jason & Lorena thrown in as to not give away the final 3.

---------------------
October 15, 2007
 
Amazing Race 12
It is that time again......... Amazing Race 12 kick off Nov 4 on CBS from the Playboy Mansion. Both Victoria and my self were at the starting line.
Team Picks
I am going to love this season because it is so dam colorful. I need to go out with my teams picks and this season I am picking my top three not necessary in any order. Jennifer & Nathan , Lorena & Jason, Rachel & TK and Nicolas & Donald is my wild card pick.

link~ http://www.jonathanbakerandvictoriafuller.com/blogarchives.php?PHPSESSID=644aea7671c06a94173df8c6af146d04
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 01, 2008, 06:55:52 PM
Yes, because we all know he couldn't have possibly figured that out on his own!  :snicker:

And WHY was he there anyway? Guess that means he could have been there again though if it did by chance finish there...
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 01, 2008, 07:06:28 PM
Big "IF", its just a guess  :duno:
Jonathan practically lives at the mansion  :res:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 01, 2008, 09:06:54 PM
puddin asked "Also after all the BS that BVM has reported do we still believe the race completes in 21 days?"

My answer is an unequivocal YES, I believe in the 21 day race. There will be only 11 legs. The last leg is going to Alaska. It can't possibly go on to anywhere else in a one hour show. This race will be over July 29, probably in the Girdwood area.

Just because BVM said it doesn't make it wrong. Sometimes he does tell the truth.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 01, 2008, 09:09:05 PM
Apskip -

They can go to alaska, do tasks, fly to final city, do a random task like in TAR11, and then run to the finish line.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on January 01, 2008, 11:17:43 PM
I also think that Japan is a NEL - well hoping so just by doing the math of legs left.

i could totally see that fool (jonathan baker) being at playboy mansion, but would WRP want him there knowing what a loud mouth "speculator" he is

maybe the finish line was there and he heard who won through his bunny connections.

by the by has the race ever finished in LA - i don't think so right???
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 02, 2008, 07:37:54 AM
I did a synopsis of where races started and finished many months ago. to the best of me recollection, races have started in Los Angeles but never finished in the Los Angeles area.

However, do not expect that this one is going past Alaska.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on January 02, 2008, 09:55:18 PM
Big "IF", its just a guess  :duno:
Jonathan practically lives at the mansion  :res:
Yeah, thanks to his wife. :( :( :(
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 02, 2008, 09:56:47 PM
*has a flash of Jonathan almost smacking Victoria in the cab*
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 04, 2008, 09:04:06 PM
There is strong evidence now that the 9th leg will be an elimination leg. This has implications for the Timeline above. The July 25 leg 9 will have to be modified to say:

25 tasks in Osaka start and finish next morning, then 12 hour pitstop

Leg 10 will also need to be modified:

27 flights from Osaka to Taipei:
JL2051 0740 0855 ITM FUK , connecting with CX511 1025 1205 FUK TPE(Note departs from Itami airport in Osaka, not Kansai)
EG211 1030 1245 (from Kansai airport)
CX565 1100 1315 (from Kansai airport)

tasks in Taipei, starting with one at Taipei 101, followed by
TBC or non-eliminaton

Leg 12 will incorporate the following correction of a mistake on the flight number and time from TPE to ANC:

28 release from pitstop, then get airline tickets for CI12 departs TPE 1625 arrives ANC 0750 July 29

Leg 13 is unchanged.

I will make the acutal changes on the Timeline and reissue it Sunday night after leg 9 s over.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 04, 2008, 09:06:23 PM
what is the strong evidence?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 04, 2008, 09:21:40 PM
Micheal, you're not keeping up with the threads. On the ep.9 thread colav10 has stated at 6:53pm today:

Quote
Check out this episode synopsis:

I Just Hope He Doesn't Croak on Us: One racer is too tired to perform at a roadblock; another racer is livid when the taxi drivers lets the team out in the wrong spot; one team is eliminated.

All those that say this episode is a nonelim, please note that the description clearly states a team will be eliminated.


It may not be true, but a betting man would put money on it being true.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 04, 2008, 09:34:38 PM
Oh I'm keeping up apskip, I just didn't think that an experienced poster like you would take that as strong evidence. Those things are always included in episode descriptions.

I do think it's possible for there to be a non-elimination on Sunday, just highly unlikely as they will most likely want to have one mor episode with four teams as opposed to two episodes with three teams because "The final three" is usually what the finale is known for. In past seasons when ever the final non elimination was during a F3 it was always a two hour finale.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 05, 2008, 12:42:09 AM
Oh I'm keeping up I just didn't think that an experienced poster like you would take that as strong evidence. Those things are always included in episode descriptions.

I do think it's possible for there to be a non-elimination on Sunday, just highly unlikely as they will most likely want to have one mor episode with four teams as opposed to two episodes with three teams because "The final three" is usually what the finale is known for. In past seasons when ever the final non elimination was during a F3 it was always a two hour finale.

I'm actually one of those who thinks Sunday will end in non-elimination. A F3 spread over two weeks would be boring (see TAR 4) and as Michael said, those are usually scheduled in two-hour blocks. Not to mention the Taipei sighting didn't indicate that R/C (probable 4th place team) were eliminated definitely. Plus, those descriptions can be innaccurate (we all remember TVGuide stating that this would be the 9th elimination point).
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 05, 2008, 07:25:54 AM
If I remember correctly, Dustin and Kandice were eliminated before the penultimate leg in Barcelona. the 12th leg for AR10 was in Paris and the final leg a trip to the New York metropolitan area. That sounds like 2 weeks F3 to me.

EDITOR'S NOTE - I have double-checked and discovered that Paris and New York were both in leg 13, so AR10 was not a 2 week F3. The elimination of Dustin and Kandice was the end of leg 12.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 05, 2008, 09:15:05 AM
If I remember correctly, Dustin and Kandice were eliminated before the penultimate leg in Barcelona. the 12th leg for AR10 was in Paris and the final leg a trip to the New York metropolitan area. That sounds like 2 weeks F3 to me.

Paris and New York were both in the final leg of TAR10 which aired over just one hour. My point is that judging from history I think they want to still have the drama of an elimination over the racer's heads.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on January 06, 2008, 10:53:57 AM
Oh I'm keeping up apskip, I just didn't think that an experienced poster like you would take that as strong evidence. Those things are always included in episode descriptions.

I do think it's possible for there to be a non-elimination on Sunday, just highly unlikely as they will most likely want to have one mor episode with four teams as opposed to two episodes with three teams because "The final three" is usually what the finale is known for. In past seasons when ever the final non elimination was during a F3 it was always a two hour finale.

Actually both season 1 and season 4 were down to the final three on episode 12 and both had non elimination rounds and leg 13th aired the next week.

Season 1:  Episode 12 aired 12/05/2001
Season 1:  Episode 13 aired 12/13/2001

Season 4:  Episode 12 aired 08/14/2003
Season 4:  Episode 13 aired 08/21/2003

Now of course season 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, and 9 Were all 2 episode blocks with a final three in both.

And season 6 was a two hour block with a final four in the first hour and a final 3 in the 2cd.

But were those schedule choices (air as a two hour segment compared to two single episodes) made before filming or afterwards.

Was it an editing choice by the producers are was it a request from CBS based on how it would best fit with CBS schedule?

Not saying that synopsis was accurate (they often are wrong), but it could be factual based on previous seasons.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kogs on January 06, 2008, 12:08:47 PM
Oh I'm keeping up apskip, I just didn't think that an experienced poster like you would take that as strong evidence. Those things are always included in episode descriptions.

I do think it's possible for there to be a non-elimination on Sunday, just highly unlikely as they will most likely want to have one mor episode with four teams as opposed to two episodes with three teams because "The final three" is usually what the finale is known for. In past seasons when ever the final non elimination was during a F3 it was always a two hour finale.

Actually both season 1 and season 4 were down to the final three on episode 12 and both had non elimination rounds and leg 13th aired the next week.

Season 1:  Episode 12 aired 12/05/2001
Season 1:  Episode 13 aired 12/13/2001

Season 4:  Episode 12 aired 08/14/2003
Season 4:  Episode 13 aired 08/21/2003

Now of course season 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, and 9 Were all 2 episode blocks with a final three in both.

And season 6 was a two hour block with a final four in the first hour and a final 3 in the 2cd.

But were those schedule choices (air as a two hour segment compared to two single episodes) made before filming or afterwards.

Was it an editing choice by the producers are was it a request from CBS based on how it would best fit with CBS schedule?

Not saying that synopsis was accurate (they often are wrong), but it could be factual based on previous seasons.

psssssst mswood tar5 had final4 hour 1 final 3 hour 2
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 06, 2008, 12:37:30 PM
Bowling Mom's <3
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on January 06, 2008, 01:02:05 PM
Yeah, Dumb Ass :groan:

Mainly wanted to point out that even with single episodes they have had gone down to three teams for the last two (hell in practical terms you could argue that they went down to 2 teams for season one for both episodes).

But I love the Bowling Moms, bad me..
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 06, 2008, 01:05:14 PM
But in the last seasons there was no speed bump -- I don't see them putting a speed bump in the finale considering they usually want the most nail biting finale where all three teams are racing to the finish line together.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on January 06, 2008, 01:14:50 PM
Bowling Mom's <3
They rocked!  :jam: :jam: :jam: :jam:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on January 06, 2008, 01:29:06 PM
But in the last seasons there was no speed bump -- I don't see them putting a speed bump in the finale considering they usually want the most nail biting finale where all three teams are racing to the finish line together.

But that isn't a problem (If they do it that way, though again, I don't think they will).  Most final legs, have more built in equalizers then any other leg. So the speed  bump isn't necessarily a problem..

Take for example (like you have mentioned) that perhaps the race doesn't end in Alaska but just has tasks there (like for example season 9).

In that leg they started in Japan, first flew to Anchorage and then drove to the "the Detour Choice of One" (has that ever happened before, by the way) then teams went for another route marker, then back to Anchorage to await flights to Colorado.  Then went to Colorado, found route marker, then performed Roadblock  from hell and then Mat (and me crying, crying, crying.)

The producers could have placed the speed bump anywhere in Alaska and it probably wouldn't have effected the effected team from making the flight to Colorado, and giving all teams an equal (stupid producers) at winning the million.

Now suppose Alaska is the final destination, they could simply have the speed bump before the flight to Alaska, and again would give an equal shot for all teams to get to the finish line.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: KingCrimson88 on January 06, 2008, 02:34:44 PM
Quote
Take for example (like you have mentioned) that perhaps the race doesn't end in Alaska but just has tasks there (like for example season 9).

And season 1. And season 2. Just because we don't have info on the final city doesn't mean that the race will end in Alaska. I'm very confident that it won't end in Alaska, actually. It's just part of the final leg. They have an Alaska or Hawaii leg almost every single season, and it has never been the site of the final city. Why would this season be different?

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 06, 2008, 02:36:54 PM
exactly IA with KingCrimson88 -- I don't think there's ever been a finale where they haven't flown to one location and then made their way to the final destination city.

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 06, 2008, 03:00:57 PM
Just watch episode 11!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 06, 2008, 03:04:03 PM
Yup we'll see who's right :), I call somewhere other than Alaska. Maybe Ca.? thats my guess.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on January 06, 2008, 03:06:09 PM
Yeah, I know.

Season 1:  Alaska then New York (for almost nothing)
Season 2:  Alaska then SF for the best ending ever.
Season 3:  Hawaii to Seattle for boo hiss Flo, yeah Zack.
Season 4:  Hawaii again, then to Arizona.
Season 5:  Canada, to where the hell did they end up.
Season 6:  Hawaii, again to Chicago and Pizza, whoo exciting.
Season 7:  Puerto Rico, then Florida
Season 8:  Toronto then upstate New York
Season 9:  Alaska to Colorado
Season 10:  Gay Paris to New York
All Stars:  Hawaii to SF/Oakland.

So I will be pleasantly surprised if the do end it in Alaska.  Though the State is certainly large enough for a full days tasks.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kogs on January 06, 2008, 03:06:22 PM
Yup we'll see who's right :), I call somewhere other than Alaska. Maybe Ca.? thats my guess.

i have a funny feeling its either la or phenoix dont ask me why though :lol:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 06, 2008, 03:10:41 PM
Quote
In that leg they started in Japan, first flew to Anchorage and then drove to the "the Detour Choice of One" (has that ever happened before, by the way) then teams went for another route marker, then back to Anchorage to await flights to Colorado.  Then went to Colorado, found route marker, then performed Roadblock  from hell and then Mat (and me crying, crying, crying.)

It has - in TAR2 they edited out a Detour in Alaska and in TAR5 they edited one out in the second Philippines leg. It seems quite random, because there are other legs where all teams have picked the same detour but both choices were left in (TAR6 in Xian, TARAS in Petrohue).

As far as Alaska goes, what stopping it from being an intermediate AND final destination, like say they go from Taiwan to Anchorage/Girdwood and then drive/fly/whatever to another town to the finish line?

and mswood, season 5 was Calgary to Dallas for Colin/Christie's luck to run out at the best time.  :yess:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 06, 2008, 03:58:34 PM
The Girdwood tasks are fairly extensive, involving several hours. Just getting to Girdwood from Anchorage International Airport takes one hour and getting back takes the same.

It is not logical to believe that teams will start a day in Taipei, fly to Anchorage, do tasks, and then then fly mid afternoon at the earliest to somewhere in the lower 48.

I have taken a fresh look(I did it 3 months ago, probably near the beginning of this thread) at which Western airport could be reached same-day from Anchorage. Starting from after 1pm, there is the list:

SEA AS162 1521 1945 (Note: there are several more about one hour apart later)
PDX AS162/ AS2433 SEA PDX 2100 2150
LAS US0116 1652 2300
LAX AS162/ AS598 SEA LAX 2055 2527
SAN AS162/ AS502 SEA SAN 2045  2331

So, the first possible flights gets into Seattle just before sunset.
The second flight gets to Portland well after sunset.
the flights to Las Vegas, Las Angeles, and San Diego get in in the hour before midnight.

ANYONE FOR AN IN-THE DARK FINALE? Obviously, not me.
I am using van Munster's statement of a 21 day schedule for AR12 as the basis for my belief that July 29 is the final day. Anyone can take the case of history(it's quite easy to say that Alaska or Hawaii have never before been the finish line for any Amazing Race) but I take the contrary case and say that it's the right time for van Munster to have stopped at Alaska. I also belive that we'll see a finish line in Hawaii soon.

Let me repeat something I rate as a key posting on this subject(not just because I wrote it):

puddin asked "Also after all the BS that BVM has reported do we still believe the race completes in 21 days?"

My answer is an unequivocal YES, I believe in the 21 day race. There will be only 11 legs. The last leg is going to Alaska. It can't possibly go on to anywhere else in a one hour show. This race will be over July 29, probably in the Girdwood area.

Just because BVM said it doesn't make it wrong. Sometimes he does tell the truth.
 











Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kogs on January 06, 2008, 04:11:21 PM
Quote
In that leg they started in Japan, first flew to Anchorage and then drove to the "the Detour Choice of One" (has that ever happened before, by the way) then teams went for another route marker, then back to Anchorage to await flights to Colorado.  Then went to Colorado, found route marker, then performed Roadblock  from hell and then Mat (and me crying, crying, crying.)

It has - in TAR2 they edited out a Detour in Alaska and in TAR5 they edited one out in the second Philippines leg. It seems quite random, because there are other legs where all teams have picked the same detour but both choices were left in (TAR6 in Xian, TARAS in Petrohue).

As far as Alaska goes, what stopping it from being an intermediate AND final destination, like say they go from Taiwan to Anchorage/Girdwood and then drive/fly/whatever to another town to the finish line?

and mswood, season 5 was Calgary to Dallas for Colin/Christie's luck to run out at the best time.  :yess:

the second phillipian leg in tar5 did not have a detour. what you saw on tv was what they filmed. and in tar2 it was the roadblock driving across the glaciar thing in the big machines. you see tara and will arguing but they coudlnt switch
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 06, 2008, 04:11:50 PM
Apskip this is a speculation thread and obviously people are going to have different opinions you don't need to prove why you think it ends in Alaska with each post.

Some of us say it doesn't some of us say it does..We'll find out soon enough
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kogs on January 06, 2008, 04:12:29 PM
The Girdwood tasks are fairly extensive, involving several hours. Just getting to Girdwood from Anchorage International Airport takes one hour and getting back takes the same.

It is not logical to believe that teams will start a day in Taipei, fly to Anchorage, do tasks, and then then fly mid afternoon at the earliest to somewhere in the lower 48.

I have taken a fresh look(I did it 3 months ago, probably near the beginning of this thread) at which Western airport could be reached same-day from Anchorage. Starting from after 1pm, there is the list:

SEA AS162 1521 1945 (Note: there are several more about one hour apart later)
PDX AS162/ AS2433 SEA PDX 2100 2150
LAS US0116 1652 2300
LAX AS162/ AS598 SEA LAX 2055 2527
SAN AS162/ AS502 SEA SAN 2045  2331

So, the first possible flights gets into Seattle just before sunset.
The second flight gets to Portland well after sunset.
the flights to Las Vegas, Las Angeles, and San Diego get in in the hour before midnight.

ANYONE FOR AN IN-THE DARK FINALE? Obviously, not me.
I am using van Munster's statement of a 21 day schedule for AR12 as the basis for my belief that July 29 is the final day. Anyone can take the case of history(it's quite easy to say that Alaska or Hawaii have never before been the finish line for any Amazing Race) but I take the contrary case and say that it's the right time for van Munster to have stopped at Alaska. I also belive that we'll see a finish line in Hawaii soon.

dont believe bvm. take it for a grain of salt
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 06, 2008, 04:21:06 PM
The Girdwood tasks are fairly extensive, involving several hours. Just getting to Girdwood from Anchorage International Airport takes one hour and getting back takes the same.

It is not logical to believe that teams will start a day in Taipei, fly to Anchorage, do tasks, and then then fly mid afternoon at the earliest to somewhere in the lower 48.

I have taken a fresh look(I did it 3 months ago, probably near the beginning of this thread) at which Western airport could be reached same-day from Anchorage. Starting from after 1pm, there is the list:

SEA AS162 1521 1945 (Note: there are several more about one hour apart later)
PDX AS162/ AS2433 SEA PDX 2100 2150
LAS US0116 1652 2300
LAX AS162/ AS598 SEA LAX 2055 2527
SAN AS162/ AS502 SEA SAN 2045  2331

So, the first possible flights gets into Seattle just before sunset.
The second flight gets to Portland well after sunset.
the flights to Las Vegas, Las Angeles, and San Diego get in in the hour before midnight.

ANYONE FOR AN IN-THE DARK FINALE? Obviously, not me.
I am using van Munster's statement of a 21 day schedule for AR12 as the basis for my belief that July 29 is the final day. Anyone can take the case of history(it's quite easy to say that Alaska or Hawaii have never before been the finish line for any Amazing Race) but I take the contrary case and say that it's the right time for van Munster to have stopped at Alaska. I also belive that we'll see a finish line in Hawaii soon.

The question then becomes if they're staying in Alaska (which is possible), then if they're going to stay in the Anchorage area or if they're going to venture out for the Finish Line. I think that they may fly out to Fairbanks, have a task or two there, and then have the finish line in the Fairbanks area. Flights from Anchorage to Fairbanks take about an hour (and depart nearly every hour) so it allows them to have a somewhat close finish while preventing the racers from driving through Alaska.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 06, 2008, 04:26:42 PM
I have taken a fresh look at the connections from Mumbai to Osaka. AI358 is a five-times-weekly nonstop flight from Mumbai to Hongkong, departing 2340 and arriving 0755+1. I had run this for one day earlier(before we knew about the extended pitstop which we think was in Florence). The no-flying dates for AI358 are Monday and Wednesday and I ran i for July 23, a Monday. The 24th is a Tuesday and that flight is valid. Connections are critical.

Editor's Note: actually this has become moot becasue July 25 was a Wednesday and AI358 did not fly on Wednesdays. There is no allternative flight that goes from BOM to HKG except for AI310, which stops Delhi and HongKong before finishing in Seoul. It is advantageous for teams to stay on until Seoul. Then they would take  JL9062 ICN KIX 1220 1400. A flight from Hong Kong CX506 departing 1020 arriving 1440 would not have been a smart move compared to this.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on January 06, 2008, 04:29:21 PM
Kogs and Zachattack308

Thanks for Dallas (I knew Calgary, but couldn't remember how to spell it, and the spelling police are on this thread).

And Yeah the final legs can be odd with tasks.

For example I listed the Family Edition as being two legs shown as a two hour block.  But I was wrong.  There is no Pit Stop (even though they do sleep) in this leg.  A leg that has one detour and two roadblocks.  So it is one leg that's two hours with an unusual number of tasks.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: mswood on January 06, 2008, 04:30:53 PM
Kogs and Zachattack308

Thanks for Dallas (I knew Calgary, but couldn't remember how to spell it, and the spelling police are on this thread).

And Yeah the final legs can be odd with tasks.

For example I listed the Family Edition as being two legs shown as a two hour block.  But I was wrong.  There is no Pit Stop (even though they do sleep) in this leg.  A leg that has one detour and two roadblocks.  So it is one leg that's two hours with an unusual number of tasks.

Cool, its funny one of the things I am most looking forward to was how they hell they got there.  Thats twice this season.  Now its elimination or non elimination.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 06, 2008, 09:22:08 PM
Apskip this is a speculation thread and obviously people are going to have different opinions you don't need to prove why you think it ends in Alaska with each post.

Some of us say it doesn't some of us say it does..We'll find out soon enough

Michael D, I have to read all of your numerous postings because they are there, so you can read mine too. If I have something to say, then hearing from you that I am overdoing it is not going to deter me from saying it. If you don't like reading my postings, then skip over them.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 06, 2008, 09:24:28 PM
Quote
If you don't like reading my postings, then skip over them.

will do ;)
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 06, 2008, 09:37:11 PM
It has taken a while to figure out all of the flights from Mumbai to Osaka. Part of the problem has been that there isn't ny connection out of Hong Kong that arrived Osaka between 2pm and 3pm. for the 3 teams that arrived together, the only connection I can find is through Seoul. It is:

AI310 1925 1025 BOM ICN
JL962 1220 1400 ICN KIX

For TK and Rachel, all I can say is that should shoot their Bombay travel agent. Here's why:

9W(Jet Airways) 360 BOM DEL 1855 2045 (Note: that puts them in ahead of AI310 which stops at Delhi)
However, the next leg makes no sense as it involvevs a 7 hour wait in Delhi for CA948, which leaves on the 26th at 0345 and arrived PEK( Beijing) at 1220
The final connection is JL786 PEK KIX 1400 1750.

This means that TK and Rachel arrived 3 hours, 20 minutes behind the other teams who actually arrived at 1430.

The first 3 teams appeared to finish after dark, so around 9pm. that means TK and Rachel finished around midnight. With an expected 12 hour pitstop, teams will be released to get following flights on July 27:

EG211 1030 1245 (Christina and Ronald and Nathan and Jennifer are likely to get this.)
CX556 1100 1315 (I think Donald and Nicholas will get this.)
BR2131 1255 1505 - I don't think TK and Rachel will have enough time to get this one.
CX157 1340 1550 (This is the one I expect TK and Rachel to get)

This means that I expect the arrivals in Taipei to be first 2 teams 30 minutes ahead of Donald/Nicholas and 3 hours ahead of Tk and Rachel. The speed bump should not make any difference; Tk and Rachel are going to be toast unless there is an intersection which would pull one of the 3 leading teams back.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: teufel on January 06, 2008, 09:54:19 PM
Thanks, apskip!  :jumpy:  What time do they arrive at though? If they arrive at night, there might be an hours of operation and all the teams are bunched up.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 06, 2008, 10:02:47 PM
teufel, I am now assuming that you can't read 24 hour clock times, since all of the arrival times are prominent in my last post. Translating for you, 1245pm or 115pm for the first 3 teams and probably 350pm for TK and Rachel.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: teufel on January 06, 2008, 10:10:22 PM
 :groan: Oh, sorry, I didn't know what those numbers meant. lol.  :angel:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: michael on January 06, 2008, 10:10:50 PM
haha don't worry about it teufel -- I still can't read plane flight schedules  :lol3:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 06, 2008, 10:20:47 PM
Those times wouldn't make sense given the sighting at Taipei 101 - Jennifer/Nathan and TK/Rachel were there at noon so TKR would have to get out with enough time to make it there. Part of it is I'm sure a shortened pit stop while the other part is that I think teams checked in earlier than what you're estimating. Sunset in Osaka on the 26th was around 7 PM; Ron/Chris check in what looked like midday or late afteroon (maybe 6), Jen/Nate checked in during twilight (I guess 7:30), Nic/Don during the evening (around 9-9:30) and TKR around midnight. If the pitstop were 6-8 hours (like in Lithuania), TKR could get a flight out in the morning to catch up with Nate/Jen. Plus there could be an hours of operation bunch at Taipei 101 (or another place) to prevent the teams from getting too far ahead.

For all we know, they could have an interesting choice of transport (like ferry to Italy rather than airport). Maybe they have to get to Tokyo and fly out from there. Just trying to avoid fossiling myself in Osaka (thanks to Ron for that).
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 06, 2008, 10:48:48 PM
My friend was in Osaka this week and they took the bullet train from there to Tokyo to catch their flight. Is that possible for our guys?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 06, 2008, 11:33:08 PM
My friend was in Osaka this week and they took the bullet train from there to Tokyo to catch their flight. Is that possible for our guys?

The information I found was that it takes roughly 2 and a half to 3 hours to get from Osaka to Tokyo (depending on the line), which would (with a reduced pit stop) get the teams in late evening on the 26th or early morning on the 27th. There's not a shortage of trains available so that won't be a problem. None of them will be able to make the last flight out (BR 2195 or EL 2125 2000 2300 NRT TPE) on the 26th, however with the bunching at the airport, there is sure to be jockeying for direct flights out from Tokyo, of which there are many:

EL 2103 or BR 2181 0920 1150
CI 0107 0940 1230
JL 0641 1000 1235

If the sighting at Taipei 101 is accurate, then Jen/Nate and TKR make the first flight, possibly accompanied by the other teams. Tasks in Taipei take up the rest of the afternoon, and the pit stop is in the evening of the 27th, setting up for flights out on the 28th which apskip has outlined in great detail.

(This is what happens when you try not to fossilize your options at 12:30 in the morning - take a grain of salt with it  :lol: )


Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 06, 2008, 11:57:05 PM
Thanks zack! :waves:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on January 07, 2008, 01:37:18 AM
Quote
It has taken a while to figure out all of the flights from Mumbai to Osaka. Part of the problem has been that there isn't ny connection out of Hong Kong that arrived Osaka between 2pm and 3pm. for the 3 teams that arrived together, the only connection I can find is through Seoul.

How about this one:

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on January 07, 2008, 01:53:39 AM
And the rest is easy:   :keeta:



[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 07, 2008, 07:07:40 AM
And the rest is easy:   :keeta:

You're appeared to be right, CHATEAU. However, the 24 hour pitstop has screwed it up for you. There is a fatal flaw in your total flight route and timing. It is the non-existence of AI358 on Wed. July 25 out of Mumbai. Since it doesn't fly on Wednesdays, there is nothing else Mumbai to Hong Kong that can connect you to CX506 in time for its 1020 departure to Osaka. the only flight teams can use is A310(the one I am showing in my current Timeline), which stops in delhi and HongKong before finishing in Seoul. With the connection from Seoul to KIX arriving at 2pm, why would any team have got offin Hong Kong and taken a flight scheduled to arrive 40 minutes later?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 07, 2008, 07:49:31 AM
My friend was in Osaka this week and they took the bullet train from there to Tokyo to catch their flight. Is that possible for our guys?

The information I found was that it takes roughly 2 and a half to 3 hours to get from Osaka to Tokyo (depending on the line), which would (with a reduced pit stop) get the teams in late evening on the 26th or early morning on the 27th. There's not a shortage of trains available so that won't be a problem. None of them will be able to make the last flight out (BR 2195 or EL 2125 2000 2300 NRT TPE) on the 26th, however with the bunching at the airport, there is sure to be jockeying for direct flights out from Tokyo, of which there are many:

EL 2103 or BR 2181 0920 1150
CI 0107 0940 1230
JL 0641 1000 1235

If the sighting at Taipei 101 is accurate, then Jen/Nate and TKR make the first flight, possibly accompanied by the other teams. Tasks in Taipei take up the rest of the afternoon, and the pit stop is in the evening of the 27th, setting up for flights out on the 28th which apskip has outlined in great detail.

(This is what happens when you try not to fossilize your options at 12:30 in the morning - take a grain of salt with it  :lol: )


Let's alter the checkin times I postulated to earlier, say starting at 7pm for Christina/Ronald, 730pm for Nathan/Jennifer, and 8pm for Donald/Nicholas. I do not believe that World Race Productions is going to mess with the 12 hour checkin to something lower. They have occasionally done so with 24 hour checkins on this race, but I don't see them altering a fundamental part of the game.

That means that Christina/Ronald will not be able to get any flight ealier than about 0830. That ruled out a possible flight combination from KIX to FUK(our friend Fukuoka) and FUK to TPE with the original departure at 0745 and the final arrival at 1205.

The first flight KIX NRT(Tokyo-Narita for the unitiated) is NH2176, which I expect that no team can get. The next is JL3002 which leaves 0825 and arrives 0940. I expect that Christina/Ronald could get that one, but it would be tight. Next is the connection for
Taipei, which  would be EL2109 departing NRT 1150 arriving TPE 1445. It's one of those proofs of the old saw "You can't get there in time from here." I have also checked through Haneda airport, which has early flights from Osaka, but teams could not catch earlier than the 0830 0935 JL106. however, you are then stranded at Haneda and the best flight is back through Osaka and then to Taipei, arriving at 1505. Not too swift and obviously they didn't do that.

Conclusion: the earliest route for that time of day is nonstop Osaka Taipei. I have the times listed in a post above. The only way that could be altered is if teams got to Tokyo-Haneda before 0635 (impossible) or to Narita before 0920(also impossible) sicne the first flight from Osaka(Itami) leaves at 0800 arriving at 0910 with 10 minutes connect time, not anything a racer would chance. A bullet train could get teams to downtown Tokyo and then have the 1+ hour train ride to Narita, but that doesn't change anything(it's a bit worse, actually).

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 07, 2008, 08:42:10 AM
My latest timeline:

1. 8th LAX to DUB  EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345
BA278   LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9)  EI375 1050 1210

2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355

3. 13 AMS to CDG many  Air France choices:  8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930; 
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732  1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop
15 REST DAY

4.  16  Bouda Pelegtanga to OUA by road.
 
5. OUA to CDG AF731  2130 0610 +1
17 CDG to AMS or FRA or PRG to VNO arrivals between 1325 and 1410
 
18 REST DAY

6. All of these flights are on July 19th
 Top 3 teams used this route:
 Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120

The route that was altered by the late arrival in Prague for TK and Rachel was:

Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871(note: actually 0720 arrival)
Prague Vienna OS704 0840 0945
Vienna Dubrovnik OS731 1315 1440 (Note: not valid per my sources, but OK per Austrian Airlines current schedule)

Don and Nic took:

OK871 0600 0635 VNO PRG (note: actually 0720 arrival)
OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV

Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:

TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV

20 Extended 36 hour pitstop

7. 21 Teams took 4.5 hour buses from 0500 to 0800 to split, then the SNAV ferry at 1700 arriving 2140 to Ancona, then U-drive cars from Ancona at least 212 miles to Empoli(west of Florence).
22 12 hour Pitstop in florence

8. Choice of several flight possiblities from Florence to Mumbai:
23 0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM

0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM

0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
 
Mumbai tasks on the 24th, then 24 hour pitstop.

9. Since the Mumbai to Hong Kong nonstop AI358, was not flying on a Wednesday, I believe that teams have no choice but to take

25  AI310 BOM ICN 1925 1045+1 (note: this flight stops in Delhi and Hong Kong, so Hong Kong is covered)
26  JL9062 ICN KIX 1220 1400

except for TK and Rachel, who I believe take this combination:
25 9W309 BOM DEL 1855 2045 
26 CA938 DEL PEK 0345 1220
     JL 786 PEK KIX  1400 1750     

26 tasks in Osaka start afternoon and finish that evening, then 12 hour pitstop

27 AM release from Osaka(except for Tk and Rachel who should release about 11am)
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505

27 Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then 36 hour extended pitstop
 
29 TPE to ANC CI12 1445 0750 (July 29 after crossing the International Date Line)

FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days

Although it is possible for teasm to get to LAX, SAN, or LAS late evening or SEA or PDX early to mid evening,  I do not believe that there will be anything beyond Alaska on this race. Others have a different point of view.
 
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on January 07, 2008, 11:56:23 AM
Quote
You're appeared to be right, CHATEAU. However, the 24 hour pitstop has screwed it up for you. There is a fatal flaw in your total flight route and timing. It is the non-existence of AI358 on Wed. July 25 out of Mumbai. Since it doesn't fly on Wednesdays, there is nothing else Mumbai to Hong Kong that can connect you to CX506 in time for its 1020 departure to Osaka. the only flight teams can use is A310(the one I am showing in my current Timeline), which stops in delhi and HongKong before finishing in Seoul. With the connection from Seoul to KIX arriving at 2pm, why would any team have got offin Hong Kong and taken a flight scheduled to arrive 40 minutes later?

No silly!  I don't have any flight AI358 in my route or timing.   :duno:

I think the three teams used AI310 to get from Mumbai to Hong Kong.  The proof is in these two shots:

The first one shows the teams checking into flight AI310 in Mumbai and the second one shows them standing around talking and wondering about TK & Rachel at the Hong Kong airport.  AI310 arrived at HKG at 7:00 am.  So the shot was taken there between 7:00 am and 9:50 am when CX506 left for Osaka (TWoP has 9:50 instead of 10:20 am).  Teams would not get off flight AI310 in Hong Kong if they were booked on its continuation to Seoul.  That should be strong enough reason for us to conclude that they did not fly to Seoul.

I think you are correct in principal about the route through Seoul being the better choice.  But in fact you are not correct that the teams used that route.  Perhaps the seats were sold out for the Hong Kong to Seoul leg of flight AI310.  So the racers had to patch in a connection at Hong Kong.

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 07, 2008, 12:31:16 PM
Chateau--what is your take on the weird day-not-day editing this episode?

EW summarizes it here: http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20169735_2,00.html

Quote
And then things got even weirder. Nate and Jen jogged into the pit stop, looking irritated, during the daytime. We cut to Phil watching them approach, in daytime. But then he started to talk, and as he did, we cut back to Nate and Jen, and behind them it was dusk. Then back to Phil, and it was dusk there, too. I replayed it to make sure I wasn't crazy, but sure enough, in the first shot of Nate-Jen, there was an unlit Ferris wheel behind them; in the second shot, the lights were on.

Even weirder, in the daytime shot of Nate and Jen, they looked peeved, but in the dusk shot, they actually looked far calmer. What was going on here? Were they called back later for reshoots? And if so, why? In the second shot, where they didn't look unhappy at all, Phil asked them, ''You guys are bummed right now, right?'' It was like he was reminding them to be their usual pissed selves. Had something happened in between to cheer them up? Were they given an electric vehicle, too? It felt as if the show were edited by the guy who did the Watergate tapes.

As I tried to wrap my mind around this, the emotional coda of TK and Rachel's truncated and tardy leg began. They were more than three hours behind, and we saw them leisurely breeze through all the challenges (poor cleaning man and cab couple, forced to wait hours for them to show up), all the while talking about how much they cared for each other. It had all the hallmarks of a let's bid adieu to this loving couple montage, and yet after all that, it ended up being non-elimination. Why were we given this farewell tour with them if they were sticking around? This episode raised far more questions than it answered, and damn it, I want answers. Electric answers.




Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kogs on January 07, 2008, 12:49:44 PM
Chateau--what is your take on the weird day-not-day editing this episode?

EW summarizes it here: http://www.ew.com/ew/article/0,,20169735_2,00.html

Quote
And then things got even weirder. Nate and Jen jogged into the pit stop, looking irritated, during the daytime. We cut to Phil watching them approach, in daytime. But then he started to talk, and as he did, we cut back to Nate and Jen, and behind them it was dusk. Then back to Phil, and it was dusk there, too. I replayed it to make sure I wasn't crazy, but sure enough, in the first shot of Nate-Jen, there was an unlit Ferris wheel behind them; in the second shot, the lights were on.

Even weirder, in the daytime shot of Nate and Jen, they looked peeved, but in the dusk shot, they actually looked far calmer. What was going on here? Were they called back later for reshoots? And if so, why? In the second shot, where they didn't look unhappy at all, Phil asked them, ''You guys are bummed right now, right?'' It was like he was reminding them to be their usual pissed selves. Had something happened in between to cheer them up? Were they given an electric vehicle, too? It felt as if the show were edited by the guy who did the Watergate tapes.

As I tried to wrap my mind around this, the emotional coda of TK and Rachel's truncated and tardy leg began. They were more than three hours behind, and we saw them leisurely breeze through all the challenges (poor cleaning man and cab couple, forced to wait hours for them to show up), all the while talking about how much they cared for each other. It had all the hallmarks of a let's bid adieu to this loving couple montage, and yet after all that, it ended up being non-elimination. Why were we given this farewell tour with them if they were sticking around? This episode raised far more questions than it answered, and damn it, I want answers. Electric answers.






peach ill say this, if this leg was orignally an elimination leg and they changed it, its prob because of logistics on the fly, or a glimps into the future. btw they have teased us before with the editing like last night fwiw
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on January 07, 2008, 12:52:26 PM
"Watergate tapes"   :lol3: :lol3:

Welcome to the Amazing Race fella.

Nothing odd about that arrival.  It was a typical mat arrival scene when the sun was setting.  Sure it was lighter out when Jenn & Nate jogged up to the mat (backpacks on).  Then, they re-shoot it for whatever reason.  That happens a lot.  At that time of day (sunset = 7:09 pm) 10 minutes makes a big difference in the amount of sunlight.  It was certainly a re-shoot because the darker part of it had Jenn & Nate sans backpacks.  The movie lights had to come on too.  Maybe the batteries were dead and production had to delay a few minutes to get fresh ones.   :duno:

I agree that the shot shows some mustered composure of some kind in the faces of both racers.  Jenn showed just how much she likes to do forced redos in Dubrovnik.  No poker face there.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 09, 2008, 02:44:18 PM
After examining many alternatives to see what the public transportation possibilities are to get teams from Osaka to Taipei before noon, here are my conclusions:

It can't be done unless even if the leg 9 finish was a TBC. The last flight that could get them there in time was at 655pm on July 26, right around the time of the first arrival at the pitstop. It is theoretically possible for teams to have taken the Shinkansen from Osaka to Fukuoka to catch CI111 FUK TPE 1010 1140. That Shinkansen would have to have departed Osaka before 8am. We know from ARA2's use of the Shinkansen that it does operate starting from Tokyo before 6am and arriving Fukuoka airport just before 9am. However, that would be a violation of fundamental Amazing Race principles.

The only way that teams could conceivably get there and have the first 3 teams together is a charter flight, which might take a little longer than the 2.25 hours that commercial flights do. To arrive by 1130am, it would have to depart Osaka by 0900. I do not believe that TK & Rachel were on the same flight if it did happen, as that would be a complete undercutting of the principle of honoring pitstop times.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 09, 2008, 03:49:57 PM
Quote
The only way that teams could conceivably get there and have the first 3 teams together is a charter flight, which might take a little longer than the 2.25 hours that commercial flights do. To arrive by 1130am, it would have to depart Osaka by 0900. I do not believe that TK & Rachel were on the same flight if it did happen, as that would be a complete undercutting of the principle of honoring pitstop times.

They could manage this. The way I see it happening is that the racers get a clue for someplace in Osaka with hours of operation in the morning (like 6 AM), and then go to the airport to sign up for one of two charter flights (departing at say 8 AM and 930 AM). Depending on the number of tasks, TK/Rachel could make it to Taipei 101 by noon/12:15. However, I doubt it, since there appears to be some airport trickery attempted by Christina, which wouldn't be necessary if the racers were using charter flights.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 09, 2008, 05:34:32 PM
Here is something very farfetched but since our backs are against the wall...

I saw something about Osaka FERRIES to Macau. Is there any possibility that teams could get flights from Macau to make it in time? (Have no clue how long the ferry takes.)

Other options? Discount the Taiwan spoiler placing us there around noon?  Is there ANYTHING else we might try--ever since we missed that Dubrovnik ferry I keep saying "think outside the box"--not that it is helping right now!

                     
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 09, 2008, 06:11:47 PM
Peach:

That's some real out of the box thinking. However, the distance from Osaka to Macau is 1500 miles and even the fastest hydrofoil would take more than one day. Also, beyond that the last flight from Macau to Taipei is at 955pm and the first flight from Macau to Taipei is at 1155am arriving at 130pm. There is just no conceivable way this makes sense.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 10, 2008, 09:59:31 AM
Peach:

This one's for you! There is twice a week ferry service from Japan to Taiwan. However, the days of the week (Wednesday and Saturday) are useless for AR12's purposes). Also, the transit time from mainland Japan is about 3 days. Okinawa it is 22 to 34 hours. Nobody on the Amazing Race would want to do these:

Nagoya (Japan mainland) depart: 11:00 Sat   10:30 Wed 
Osaka (Japan mainland) depart:   00:50 Sun   00:50 Thur 
Naha (Okinawa) arrive:                 07:30 Mon  07:30 Fri 
Naha (Okinawa) depart:               20:00 Mon   20:00 Fri 
Keelung (Taiwan) arrive:              18:00 Tues
Kaohsiung (Taiwan) arrive:                              06:00 Sun
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on January 10, 2008, 11:43:28 AM
On the question of Osaka via Seoul or Hon Kong here is a vidcap from the show that shows all the flights that had arrived at Osaka's KIX airport when the three teams passed through.  It gives us that both flights had arrived (JL962=KE5721 and CX506=JL5120).  Had they arrived on the earlier flight from Seoul 40 min ahead of the flight from Hong Kong then why would we see that the Hong Kong flight had already arrived?  Forty minutes is too long to linger around after your flight arrives!


[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on January 10, 2008, 11:44:49 AM
Annnnd:  Just to check one more clue, I looked at the present-day gates of arrival for the two flights.  Maybe the flights pull into different gates at KIX that can be distinguished by what we see in the show.   ;)

It turns out that they do go to different gates!  I snagged the arrival information from the KIX website and it says that Korean Air 5120 from Seoul goes gate S/31.  And that Cathay Pacific 506 from Hong Kong goes to N/11.

So I checked the footage from the show and found this shot of Jenn & Nate at KIX leaving from a large room called "North Arrivals".   :tup:

Do I still have to ask?

[attachment deleted by admin]
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 10, 2008, 11:45:51 AM
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Oliver on January 10, 2008, 03:19:52 PM
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 


I'm pretty sure it's 28th.  :(
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 10, 2008, 08:44:52 PM
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 


I'm pretty sure it's 28th.  :(
Where are you seeing that Oliver? When I went to her myspace I saw a few Happy B-Days posted on July29th not that they couldn''t have been belated.

Chateau, I totally missed your post above!! Good job!!!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 10, 2008, 09:04:01 PM
Thanks apskip! I had no idea but sure didn't want to miss another ferry! Yep--three days seems just a mite long for our guys! But appreciate your checking...

And WOW Chateau! That is some detecting! :happy:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Oliver on January 10, 2008, 09:16:55 PM
I just wanted to add that Jen's birthday is July 28th or 29th?~
All one Racer wants for her birthday is a spot in the Final 3…will her birthday wish be granted?
 


I'm pretty sure it's 28th.  :(
Where are you seeing that Oliver? When I went to her myspace I saw a few Happy B-Days posted on July29th not that they couldn''t have been belated.

Chateau, I totally missed your post above!! Good job!!!

I first remembered reading it somewhere sometime when the race first began, but I can't really remember where so that made me doubt a bit since I could of been half asleep while reading so it might of been something else I read. =(

But then I was on the Survivorsucks board and I saw a user post that the episode 10 hint would refer to Jen since 'Her birthday is July 28th'

Here's the link: http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/23509

 :duno:

Oh, And could I please have the link to Jen's Myspace, Puddin? Thanks!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 10, 2008, 09:57:36 PM
I don't know where they see that Jen's B-Day is the 28th but what do I know?

anyway~
Jenn
http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=11725336
Nathan
http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=11224979
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 10, 2008, 10:04:40 PM
What Myspace does state is that Jenn is a LEO, meaning birthday from July 23 to Aug. 22. That means it could be July 28 or any of 30 other dates.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 10, 2008, 10:11:37 PM
I went through Jen's messages from her friends and July 29th is when she received happy B-Day wish's from her friends so they should know when her B-Day so one would think.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: tarflyonthewall on January 11, 2008, 02:46:21 AM
I suppose this is the right place to put this. I used to do the timelines over at Tarflies (under a different username) until I got banned (if you were over there, you would know why). Anyway, I've got a new site starting, and I thought I'd give you the link, since, uh, this is a timeline thread and all.

www.realityarchive.createmyboard.com

Enjoy!

-- David aka tarflyonthewall aka theamazingracer aka raceguy120390 aka Bad Phil Impersonator aka...

Also, there's a season overview there as well which is correctly dated up until the India leg.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 11, 2008, 08:21:18 AM
tarflyonthewall,

I have accepted your invitation and checked out your website. I already was familiar with your work at the site which shall not be named. Keep up the good work! RFF is quite friendly toward timelines as well as recaps, which is what I would call what you are doing. We already have two going for AR12 and one for for ARA2, but having one more of each avvailable on your website is a good thing.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 11, 2008, 10:01:17 AM
Hi David! I always loved your timeline/recaps so I'm so glad you found a way to continue them! :waves:

and :welcome2:  to RFF!!
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 11, 2008, 11:29:59 AM
Welcome aboard David!  :waves:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on January 11, 2008, 11:51:40 AM
Welcome, David. I know you as well and enjoyed your recaps over at ******** also. I'm doing recaps for TAR12 and TARA2 and liked what you were doing over at the other place. :tup:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 11, 2008, 12:05:00 PM
Sorry, because Rob does not like that other place for personal reasons, he has now blocked the name to come up ******** , incase anyone is wondering ;D
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: TARAsia Fan on January 11, 2008, 12:23:49 PM
 :yess: :yess: :yess:

I just typed the asterisks myself, but let me see if it works. TARFlies.  Yup! It works!  :lol: :lol: :lol:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: patlini on January 11, 2008, 03:52:15 PM
Sorry, because Rob does not like that other place for personal reasons, he has now blocked the name to come up ******** , incase anyone is wondering ;D

I was because I have no clue as to what it is  :-[
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 11, 2008, 06:24:31 PM
That place is arflies-tay, if you can read in pig latin. Aside from the recaps by Zach, ATCs and Carissa I don't really visit it much.

Based off some of the pictures in the episode thread, part of the leg takes place in Taiwan at night, so I'm leaning towards a 24 hour pitstop instead of 36 hour pitstop.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kiwi Jay on January 11, 2008, 06:28:11 PM
Zack are you on Metropolis Forums  :ascared
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Zack. on January 11, 2008, 06:40:42 PM
Zack are you on Metropolis Forums  :ascared

Yessir - I'm in quite a few places, but that's neither here nor there.

Maybe they just get a giant slightshot and fling the racers to Taipei  :duno: There are a bunch of creative solutions we've come up with when in reality it's probably just charter flights or something  (:;))
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 11, 2008, 10:10:06 PM
That place is arflies-tay, if you can read in pig latin. Aside from the recaps by Zach, ATCs and Carissa I don't really visit it much.

Based off some of the pictures in the episode thread, part of the leg takes place in Taiwan at night, so I'm leaning towards a 24 hour pitstop instead of 36 hour pitstop.

zachattack308, since I had the obligation to set KiwiJay straight on the interpretation of the facts as I see them, I have the identical responsibility relative to you. It might be a 36 hour pitstop, although I highly doubt it. We are starting from the evening of July 26 in Osaka with teams checking into the pitstop there at 7pm to 11pm. Now, based on visual evidence at Taipei 101, multiple teams need to arrive there as close to noon on July 27 as possible. Figure out what that means for the length of the pitstop in Osaka(Hint -  the correct answer is 12 hours). There will be a 36 hour extended pitstop after the Taipei area(including the trip south and back) action is completed.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Slowhatch on January 11, 2008, 10:41:51 PM
I don't like to throw sand in the gears, but the more I search photos and videos the more this (http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b105/rawalsh/amazingrace12/EP10/09Jan0015.jpg) looks like the Umeda Sky bldg. Either they're enjoying some time off, or the first task is to grab an info card from the "floating gardens" (observation platform). Either way, I'm guessing it should be incorporated into schedule planning.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: aaron1262 on January 11, 2008, 11:33:26 PM
Zack are you on Metropolis Forums  :ascared

Yessir - I'm in quite a few places, but that's neither here nor there.

Maybe they just get a giant slightshot and fling the racers to Taipei  :duno: There are a bunch of creative solutions we've come up with when in reality it's probably just charter flights or something  (:;))

Definitely right about that one....some of the poster's suggestions are actually really crafty.....like the ferry to macau then flight to taipei :lol3:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 11, 2008, 11:53:09 PM
Quote
some of the poster's suggestions are actually really crafty.....like the ferry to macau then flight to taipei  :lol3:

That was me in left field aaron--nice to meet you! :waves: 

I don't like to throw sand in the gears, but the more I search photos and videos the more this (http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b105/rawalsh/amazingrace12/EP10/09Jan0015.jpg) looks like the Umeda Sky bldg. Either they're enjoying some time off, or the first task is to grab an info card from the "floating gardens" (observation platform). Either way, I'm guessing it should be incorporated into schedule planning.

Slowhatch --This is an excellent find and a great match. I am beginning to wonder if the teams will even be going to 101 at all?

We have to see the obligatory TAR :barf so time will be tight. Exactly what evidence do we have for 101 if we were to discount the spoiler? One screencap?

Becuase I think we all (myself included) may have been way too eager to jump on the whole Ron/Christina are eliminated  -- and the whole maybe Intersection thing--both of which now look to be in error.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Slowhatch on January 11, 2008, 11:58:40 PM
We know they go to the 101 base, at least. It's happened before; racers went to the Petronas towers but didn't go up.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kiwi Jay on January 12, 2008, 12:06:38 AM
Peach the evidence is also part of the spoiler we recieved

a.k.a: The man seeing teams at 101

as Slowhatch said they could retrieve a clue from the front of Taipei 101 just like in TAR 3 at the Petronas Towers, however in the spoiler they said that he saw them going up steps correct me if I am wrong

The pic of Nathan may be them in Taipei 101 just from the evidence we found

This leg may turn out to have teams going up and down Hotels like buzoonga  :lol:

Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: georgiapeach on January 12, 2008, 12:14:43 AM
Well they are sure up in yours Slowhatch!

 If we map all these places (I know some of them are done) can we see a pattern to help figure out when they go where? and I'm behind again in MAPS!--real life! :groan:

and kiwi--we have put a lot of faith into that spoiler--but we also may need to think about what if that wasn't true or right? Or if maybe we just are misinterpreting the whole thing?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 12, 2008, 12:23:21 AM
Remember the guy that told us that he was on a flight from CDG to, was it LaGuardia? with the final 3 teams, TAR10 ...anyway he verified with his own ticket, even describing the teams, but what we didn't know was that the Bama's were not on that flight and we all know how that turned out  :groan:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: apskip on January 12, 2008, 07:38:05 AM
puddin, it is impossible to fly direct from CDG to LGA, as the runways aren't long enough at LaGuardia to accommodate the large commercial planes used across the Atlantic. I believe you meant JFK (Bama was going to Newark so it almost certainly was not Newark).
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: serendipity on January 12, 2008, 10:35:38 AM
My latest timeline:

27 AM release from Osaka(except for Tk and Rachel who should release about 11am)
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505

Apskip, since we now have evidence that there may be a route marker in Osaka (Umeda Sky building) before flying to Taiwan, an Hour of Operation at the start of next leg may bunch up the first 3 teams.

If the opening hour is 10am, that means those 3 teams even may not get CX565, thus they may end up taking BR2121.

However, TK/Rachel may not be able to make that flight, so the only possible situation where they could catch up would be when one of those first 3 teams cannot get BR2121 and have to take the next one CI0157 (1340-1550) with TK/Rachel.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: tarflyonthewall on January 12, 2008, 09:02:35 PM
Thanks for the friendly welcome! I'll try and post here whenever I update the site in any major way, so that you guys don't have to keep checking.

(BTW, does anyone know if/where there are/were extended Pit Stops in either season of TAR: Asia. My count, without extended pit stops, for season 1 is 21 days, which means there were 4 extended Pit Stops for the advertised total of 25 days.)

Edit: Okay, the timelines/recaps for the Florence and Mumbai legs are up - but given what's been posted upthread, the dates are probably wrong. Sorry!

And feel free to register at the site. You know I love to be loved.

Also, I've posted here before, so it's not really a 'welcome', but more of a 'welcome back'. I posted in one of the race reports that the timeliner over at YouKnowWhere discovered the RoadBlockers for the Poland leg - of course, back then, nobody knew I was talking about myself.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Kiwi Jay on January 12, 2008, 10:03:00 PM
and kiwi--we have put a lot of faith into that spoiler--but we also may need to think about what if that wasn't true or right? Or if maybe we just are misinterpreting the whole thing?

So the guy may have lied about or misinterpreted the whole thing or we could, I dont think I put my faith in he misinterperating Taipei 101 its the tallest skyscraper in Asia I believe, but Lieng that would suck that also would fit in with the "Asians" Spoiler not being true.

Could there also be a speedbump for T.K and Rachel right at the end of the leg or would it be early on in the Leg??
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: tarflyonthewall on January 18, 2008, 02:44:48 AM
Copied directly from my site for your enjoyment:

Day 1: 8th July, 2007: The race starts at the Playboy Mansion in Los Angeles. Teams drive to the airport and book flights to Shannon, Ireland.

Day 2: 9th July, 2007: Teams arrive in Shannon and take a ferry from Rosseveal to Inis Mor. There, they walk to Teampall Bheanain, the world's smallest church, and sign up for return ferries the following morning. Teams stay at the Pier House B&B.

Day 3: 10th July, 2007: Starting at 8am, return ferries. Teams drive to Cleggan Farm and ride tandem bikes to the High-Wire Bike RoadBlock. Then, they choose a donkey, load up 15 pieces of peat into each of its baskets, and walk it back to the farm entrance. They are then instructed to drive to Pit Stop at the Coonemara Heritage Centre [where Azaria/Hendekea win a holiday to Alberta; and Ari/Staella are eliminated].

Day 4: 11th July, 2007: Teams depart the Pit Stop between Midnight and 3am (literally). They drive back to Shannon Airport and book flights to Amsterdam, connecting through Dublin. In Amsterdam, they take trains into the city, and walk to Melkmeisjes Brug, where they encounter the Hoist It/Hunt It Detour. They take buses to Ransdorp, just north of the city centre, find a marked field, and perform the Ditch Vault RoadBlock. Then, they ride a bakfiets to the Pit Stop at the Durgerdam Yacht Club [where Lorena/Jason win sportbikes, and Kate/Pat are eliminated].

Day 5: 12th July, 2007: Extended Pit Stop in Durgerdam.

Day 6: 13th July, 2007: Teams leave the Pit Stop and are instructed to fly to Ouagadougou, but are not told where it is. Teams fly through Paris and arrive in Burkina Faso later that afternoon. They take taxis to the train station and wait overnight for it to open.

Day 7: 14th July, 2007: Teams take a train to Bingo, a field in Boulkiemdé, and encounter the Milk Camel RoadBlock. Each team leads four camels to a drop-off point at a local school. At the school, the Teach It/Learn It Detur takes place. Once they finish, teams walk to the Pit Stop on the outskirts of Boulkiemdé [where Azaria/Hendekea win a Bermuda holiday, and Marianna/Julia are eliminated].

Day 8: 15th July, 2007: Teams leave in the morning with no money. They walk to a nearby village and catch a chicken, which teams must carry to the Pit Stop. They take taxis to Bouda-Pelegtanga for the Shake Your Pan/Shake Your Booty Detour, and the first-ever U-Turn, which Shana/Jennifer use on Jason/Lorena. They then go back to Ouagadougou, and perform the Deliver Supplies RoadBlock at Tampouy Goat Market, before heading to the Pit Stop at City Hall [where Azaria/Hendekea win a Yamaha scooter each, and Jason/Lorena are eliminated].

Day 9: 16th July, 2007: Teams depart in the morning and spend the day trying to book flights to their next location - Vilnius, Lithuania. They leave late at night for Paris.

Day 10: 17th July, 2007: Teams arrive in Paris and continue to Vilnius. They find marked cars outside the airport and drive to Trakai Castle (although it is not shown, and no team takes the Fast Forward on offer there), then to Saint Anne's church, where they encounter another Delivery RoadBlock. Teams then drive to the Lithuanian Outdoor Ethnogrpahic Museum and follow a marked road from ther to Dzukija for another boring Gnome hunt. They continue on to the Count Down/Step Up Detour. Following this, they walk to the Pit Stop at Aukstaitija Windmill [where Rachel/TK win a Japan holiday, and Shana/Jennifer are eliminated].

Day 11: 18th July, 2007: The Pit Stop lasts about 28 hours total, and covers this whole day.

Day 12: 19th July, 2007: Teams depart and are directed to fly to Dubrovnik, Croatia. They arrive in the afternoon and take taxis to the Fort of St. Lawrence, where team members complete the Wall Repair RoadBlock. After, they head to the fort's roof and take a zipline to Fort Bokar for the Short & Long/Long & Short Detour. Both options finish at Tig Oruzja in the Old City. They take taxis (although taxis are not usually allowed in the Old City) to the Pit Stop at Stone Cross Overlook [where Ronald/Christina win a catamaran each, and Azaria/Hendekea are eliminated].

Day 13: 20th July, 2007: Extended Pit Stop in Dubrovnik, the first back-to-back extended Pit Stops since TAR1’s infamous finish.

Day 14: 21st July, 2007: Teams depart the Pit Stop, taking buses to the city of Split. From there, they all take the same ferry to Ancona, Italy. AT the ferry terminal, they get clues directing them to drive to Empoli, Tuscany. During the night-time drive they receive a Blackberry message from loved ones at home.

Day 15: 22nd July, 2007: When teams eventually arrive at Campo di Volo Silvano Poli, they find the clues for both the Ultralight Search RoadBlock, and the Tattoo Fast Forward (which Donald/Nicholas take). They drive to the birthplace of Leonardo da Vinci, in Vinci, and encounter the Invention/Tradition Detour. When they complete their task, they are told to drive to the Pit Stop at the Boboli Gardens in Florence [where Donald/Nicholas win a trip to Cancun, and Kynt/Vyxsin are the first team to be Speed Bumped.] Just before midnight, the leading teams depart with directions to fly to Mumbai, India.

Day 16: 23rd July, 2007: The trailing teams leave. They spend the day trying to get flights. Teams arrive throughout the night...

Day 17: 24th July, 2007: ...and learn that the M.R. Naik Newspaper Stall opens at 6am. When it does, teams purchase the Times of India and search for an advertisement holding their next clue. They head to Chauhan Alteration Tailors, where Kynt/Vyxsin must perform the Yoga Speed Bump before joining the other teams in completing the Paste 'Em/Thread 'Em Detour. They then continue to a nearby traffic island for the second U-Turn (which Kynt/Vyxsin waste), and on to Bharatgas Colaba Gas Service for yet another Delivery RoadBlock, this time with propane, before heading to the Pit Stop at Bandra Fort [where Rachel/TK win a trip to St. Martin, and Kynt/Vyxsin are eliminated].

This timeline may be shown ONLY in the TWoP timeline thread, over at RFF, and at Reality Archive. This and all other timelines on this site remain my property and any usage of these in ANY location aside from the three listed above will result in nasty letters from Rob/Brennan/Heather/Eve/Ray/have we had any other lawyers on the show? I wish I didn't have to do this, but people just don't react when you ask them nicely, do they, Tarflies?
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Chateau d If on January 18, 2008, 05:26:48 PM
Tarflyonthewall, let's not claim copyrights on our posts here.  It seems strange. 

If a poster comes up with something original then they get credit for it.  They don't own it.  We have a collective effort here.  If you want to claim copyright to material then keep it out of the collective pool.  Especially when the material comes from other poster's efforts.  It seems selfish to claim it as your own.


 :boot:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: gingerman28 on January 19, 2008, 10:45:32 AM
That's like trying to claim ownership of history.  Reciting a series of known historical facts is not copywritable.
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: puddin on January 19, 2008, 05:25:16 PM
Quote
This timeline may be shown ONLY in the TWoP timeline thread, over at RFF, and at Reality Archive. This and all other timelines on this site remain my property and any usage of these in ANY location aside from the three listed above will result in nasty letters from Rob/Brennan/Heather/Eve/Ray/have we had any other lawyers on the show? I wish I didn't have to do this, but people just don't react when you ask them nicely, do they, ******?

 :nopoints


Tarflyonthewall, let's not claim copyrights on our posts here.  It seems strange. 

If a poster comes up with something original then they get credit for it.  They don't own it.  We have a collective effort here.  If you want to claim copyright to material then keep it out of the collective pool.  Especially when the material comes from other poster's efforts.  It seems selfish to claim it as your own.


 :boot:
That's like trying to claim ownership of history.  Reciting a series of known historical facts is not copywritable.


What Chateau & Gman said  :ythat::jam:
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: Slowhatch on January 19, 2008, 06:58:53 PM
I agree. ©
Title: Re: TAR12 timeline speculation
Post by: tarflyonthewall on January 30, 2008, 02:47:18 AM
Sorry, there was a long backstory behind that, but I've forgotten it now. Anyway, the Tokyo leg and the France leg of TAR4 are now up at my site.