Archive > Survivor 12: Panama - Exile Island
EP2 title ~"Breakdown"
puddin:
what TDT has to say ~
Who ends up where? Update: From the web promo, the new tribes are fairly clear.
Purple tribe (Casaya): Shane, Bruce*, Aras, Bobby, Melinda, Cirie, Danielle and Courtney
Orange tribe (La Mina): Dan, Terry, Nick, Austin, Ruth Marie, Misty and Sally.
Who ends up where? Update: From the web promo, the new tribes are fairly clear.
Purple tribe (Casaya): Shane, Bruce*, Aras, Bobby, Melinda, Cirie, Danielle and Courtney
Orange tribe (La Mina): Dan, Terry, Nick, Austin, Ruth Marie, Misty and Sally.
* Bruce seems to be sitting out the challenge, so it's not clear which tribe he belongs to. But from process of elimination (assuming 4 men per tribe), we'd assume he's on Casaya. But that could be a poor assumption to make.
The challenge itself appears to be an obstacle course, where the point seems to be collecting the wooden snakes that were shown in the TV Guide Channel preview (at right). The race actually appears fairly even: in the scene where Cirie falls on top of Bobby, La Mina (with Jeff Probst trailing them) are visible just ahead of Casaya. Probst is also shown keeping pace with Casaya, as Aras jumps off an obstacle.
But we think the key shot is of an exhausted Aras (and a sad Courtney), versus Austin's fairly chipper "This isn't just all fun and games" confessional. We'll say La Mina wins. And someone from Casaya gets exiled.
Exile: Courtney?
Since we don't know which tribe Bruce is on, we'll leave him out of consideration. Among the people shown to be on Casaya, Aras ("intense", above), Courtney and Bobby have shots indicating frustration or unhappiness. Interestingly, Courtney is shown carrying Casaya's snakes in the RC. She's also dripping wet in the "Quit" shot, above. Since it looks like they lose, and CBS claims "one Survivor makes a major mistake and leaves the tribe disappointed, hungry and still desperately trying to get food" (although we highly doubt food is the reward), we suspect Courtney's the one at fault for the loss. So she'd seem like the most likely candidate for a trip to Exile Island.
Immunity challenge: Underwater chest pull - some tribe wins?
With a shot of Shane diving off a dock from the Saturday golf PIP promo, there are now a full two pictures of this challenge. The first, from the web promo, showed Terry pulling an orange trunk underwater.
We had initially thought this might fit the "zombie rescue" challenge described in the TV Guide Channel preview, but with the shots of Shane diving in, there really isn't anything to support that idea. So it's probably just retrieving the trunks, as shown. If so, Terry seems to be doing fairly well at it (Tom Westman, v2.0). So we'd guess La Mina ought to win. But obviously, that's a pretty flimsy guess.
.
BOOT: Speculation
Sadly, someone must go "home." And by "home," we mean not home. But rather a secluded environment featuring food, fellow castoffs, and delicious beverages. Pretty rough, pretty rough
whos in danger ??
Melinda Hyder
Realtor/ singer
32, Sevierville, TN
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Unclear. - Wickchix: Female 1st boot
Dan Barry
Former astronaut
52, South Hadley, MA
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Wickchix: Female 1st boot
- MayanSun: Came back "thinner... with a full beard." - Unclear.
Austin Carty
Model/actor
24, High Point, NC
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Unclear. - Unclear.
Bobby Mason
Attorney
32, W.Hollywood, CA
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Voice Mail: Bobby "came back thinner." - Unclear.
Nick Stanbury
Waiter
25, Tempe, AZ
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Unclear. - Unclear.
Ruth Marie Milliman
Runner
48, Greenville, SC
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Unclear. - Wickchix: Female 1st boot
Sally Schumann
Bartender
27, Chicago, IL
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Unclear. - Wickchix: Female 1st boot
Misty Giles
Model/ engineer
24, Dallas, TX
Ep2: Unclear | Overall: Unclear
- Unclear. - First exile? If so, most at risk for first boot.
puddin:
One Survivor is Ready to Quit on the next Episode of Survivor: Panama
ONLY SIX DAYS IN AND ONE SURVIVOR IS READY TO QUIT! ON "SURVIVOR: PANAMA -- EXILE ISLAND," THURSDAY, FEB. 9
"Breakdown" -- Six days on the island and one survivor is ready to go home, on SURVIVOR: PANAMA -- EXILE ISLAND, Thursday, Feb. 9 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.
When four tribes are consolidated into two during a school-yard pick, the last Survivor fears their time on the island might be over. One castaway struggles to adjust to life on the island. Will they overcome the pressure or quit? One Survivor makes a major mistake and leaves their tribe disappointed, hungry and still desperate for food. As the castaways get to know each other, they waste no time forming alliances, leaving two Survivors feeling vulnerable and another two in a position of power.
puddin:
Love Corvi's Confessional Analysis
Saturday, February 04, 2006
Panama Confessional Analysis, Episode 1
What is Confessional Analysis?
By analyzing the content and number of Survivor confessionals, one can find patterns that point to who will last longer in the show. It began with dividing the confessionals into two types: tribal history confessionals (Ts) and tribe dynamics confessionals (Ds). What I discovered during season three (which is when I first started this) is that generally people with a lot of Ds go before people with a lot of Ts. Also, people who are not getting very many confessionals will be safe until we hear from them. This has only been one exception to the latter rule - Zoe from S4, who never got very many confessionals, had no real storyline, and was still booted. The Zoe Exception still rankles me.
A couple other things to look for:
1) There is usually pre-merge narrator. They get a lot of Ts early on and it looks like they'll go far and then wham, the person is voted out shortly after the merge. If someone is definitely narrating and then the Ds start piling up, watch out!
2) People who get confessionals about the theme of the show usually last longer. This was very clear in Africa and Thailand. Africa was all about the culture of the area. Lex, Ethan, and, to a lesser extent, Tom got those confessionals. That's three of the final four. In Thailand, it was all about how to win the game. The culture wasn't emphasized as much after the elders were allowed to pick tribes. Brian was constantly talking about his strategy - his meta-strategy confessionals convinced me he was going to go far. Brian, as we know, won.
3) In eleven seasons, the only winner who didn't get a confessional in the first episode was Tina.
For Panama, the theme is related to Exile Island. People who are talking about that twist have a decent chance of making it further than those who don't. However, if someone gets exiled, we should expect them to be talking about it because they're in the middle of it. It's important to make a distinction between talking about being exiled in general and the specific situation the exilee finds themself in. The former confessionals indicate that the person may last longer.
Okay, let's dive into Survivor: Guatemala confessionals! Here are the codes:
T= tribal history confessional
D= tribal dynamic confessional
*=theme confessional
La Mina
Shane - 1T/1D
Terry - 1T
Dan - 1T
Bruce - 0T
Casaya
Cirie - 2T/3D
Melinda - 1T/1D
Ruth Marie - 1T
Tina - 3T/1D
Bayoneta
Courtney - 3T
Danielle - 2T/1D
Misty - 2T/1D
Sally - 2D
Viveros
Austin - 2T
Aras - 1T
Nick - 1D
Bobby - 1T
As I write every season, it's nearly impossible to make any real predictions based on one episode of analysis. This is predictions based on patterns and you need at least two, preferably three episodes before the patterns begin to take shape. That said, it'd be no fun to end my analysis right here, so let's go for it anyway! Hee.
This was Cirie's episode. So much of it was seen through her eyes. She commented on the tribal lines. She commented on what they had to work with when they got to their beach. She orchestrated Tina's ouster. She's the prominent character so far. She strikes as one of those pre-merge narrators, but it's waaaaay too early to say for sure. Ruth Marie told us her strategy of letting a leader take over and being an anonymous worker bee. Melinda talked about how Cirie was the weakest member of the tribe, but she wasn't willing to work against her because she didn't want to risk being targeted. Everyone's strategy at Casaya was pretty clear.
Misty was the first exilee, but she didn't get any confessionals that warrant an * because all of her confessionals were about her specific situation. If Misty were going to last a long time, I would have expected her to get some over reaching comments about the exile theme. So initial impression (subject to change, of course) is that Misty is not long for the game.
At the young girl's camp and the young men's camp, we heard about some conflict but it was done very differently. Nick comments on Aras' goofy yoga energy thing, but no one else does. Contrast that with the comments about Courtney. Both Sally and Danielle talk about how "out there" Courtney is and how she "over dramatizes" everything. Courtney is shown very negatively whereas Aras is shown as little goofy, but not really that bad. Now here's the most interesting part of the whole thing. Did you notice when all the tribes got together for the first time, we were shown Courtney winking at Aras? These two characters are linked.
The editing links two other characters together: Bruce and Shane. Shane is complaining about being stuck with this group of men. After a lot of his comments, we are shown a shot of Bruce. Bruce doesn't have a confessional in the episode (the only one who doesn't and if a pattern holds, there's no chance he wins), but we see a lot of him, and it's almost all through Shane's eyes. Conflict between these two is brewing.
What's really interesting about both of these character links is that analysis of the tribal switch next episode puts all of them on the same tribe.
So who's vulnerable next episode based on confessional analysis?
Nick
Misty
Sally
Danielle
Cirie
Melinda
Shane
puddin:
I'm bored
these are from my crappy cable tv
[
CJ22:
Ok im making this quick and cutting to the chase
Tribe Alignment - Casaya ( Shane, Aras, Bobby, Melinda, Cirie, Danielle and Courtney)
La Mina ( Dan, Terry, Nick, Austin, Ruth Marie, Misty and Sally and Bruce)
Ok I disagree with Truedork here and heres why Vid caps support ever person but Bruce who obviously sits out the challenge. Truedork says he is on Casaya basically so its 4 men on each tribe. I disagree I think the fact that "two survivor are left with a feeling of power and two are left verunable" leads more to Bruce being in Dan and Terrys heres Terry feeling confidentpocket making them the comfortable pair. I think Melinda is that last pick chooses Casaya sending Dan over to La Mina, I also think Austin being picked late leads him to his "not all fun and games" line.
OK Who get Exiled???? some think Courtney some think Aras all I know is La Mina definately wins the RC. Alot think Bruce however I dont think Bruce is on Casaya. This is the supposed evidence pic of Bruce however he doesn't have on a Buff and we don't really know what this pic is from. Ill go out on a limb and say Melinda gets exiled?????
Ok so much like the pic of Aras where we know his tribe loses the RC, this pic of Courtney lets us know they also loose the IC. And suprise Melinda gets the boot Cirie her only real link on the Island should be quick to offer her up for both the boot and possibly the exiling. Cirie's anyone but me is working right now.
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