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Survivor Thoughts from Iowa

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palauan on guam:
honestly...its hard to determine anything right now

puddin:
Mersaydeez is hinting towards a cruise this week  *%#  I still think tools will be involved ..

puddin:
Monday, March 28, 2005
This week's spec
Let's pull all the spoilers together and see where we are. Mersaydeez says Bobby Jon and Iberehem are the next to go in some order. She says Stephenie and (probably) Ibrehem participate in a fire building challenge to determine who is the last surviving Ulonger. Presumedly, that person will join Koror. And Mersaydeez says that person is Stephenie.

Callmecrazee says a male is kidnapped at some point. If it's going to happen, it has to happen in episode 7. Nothing in any of the promos point to this happening. We have this image that looks like Ulong post SOS reward challenge loss:



Note the flag is down. Probably was used to signal the plane judging the SOS challenge. All three are present at the reward challenge so no kidnapping has happened yet. We don't have any images of the immunity challenge. We know it is likely called Sea Stars, but that doesn't tell us much. We also know that "During a crucial Immunity challenge, one Survivor takes over for a struggling tribemate. Will it be enough to win?" That sounds like someone taking over for Ibrehem who has sucked at the challenges. It also eliminates the challenge as a Q&A type thing, as they've never let someone sub in on one of those. Most likely some sort of physical swimming challenge based on the name.

I am beginning to lean against the kidnapping idea. Maybe it was an idea they scrapped after Ulong kept losing tribemates. Even if there is a kidnapping, I think it won't be permanent. So I think we need to look at our final three Ulongers and figure how they'll vote. (Because no one really expects them to win the immunity challenge, right?)

Stephenie and Bobby Jon made a deal to vote out Ibrehem if Stephenie voted for James last episode. She eventually voted for James on the re-vote. Assuming Bobby Jon doesn't think her hesitation was a betrayal, we can expect him to keep his word. Bobby Jon is Mr. Honorable. His word is his bond. The only other option would be Stephenie voted out by the 'Bama Boys. Spoilers and confessional analysis point to Stephenie sticking around so I am ruling that out.

There is a way Bobby Jon could be voted out. Stephenie would have to go to Ibrehem and tell him Bobby Jon betrayed him. The two of them decide to vote out Mr. Honorable. The only reason Stephenie would do this is if she thought BJ was a bigger post merge threat. Which he is, I suppose. But it's a pretty huge risk to take just to eliminate someone who might be slightly more difficult to beat in the individual challenges than Ibrehem.

Plus, confessional analysis points to Ibrehem going next.

So that's my pick. Koror wins both challenges. Ibrehem is booted. And there is no kidnapping.


http://survivorthoughts.blogspot.com/

puddin:

--- Quote ---Wednesday, March 30, 2005
I can change my mind, right?
You see, every once in a while, you get this gut feeling. This terrible pit of the stomach feeling that tells you you're on the wrong path. This morning I re-read my analysis on my blog. It makes sense. It sounds good. But... I think I'm wrong.

Even in the best seasons, confessional analysis fails me once or twice. I think it's going to be this week.

So I am going with Bobby Jon getting the boot tonight. I think it goes against all reason, everything we know, my final seven spoiler, and what we've seen so far. But shortly after I made this decision, I headed over to Blows to find my partner in blogging crime believes Bobby Jon is going home, too. So let's go for it.

Of course, I suppose what I'm really saying is, I have no freakin' idea. Should be a fun Thursday night.
--- End quote ---

CJ22:
geez if all theses people would have just read my JTS analysis on sunday night they would have known BJ was gonna go  _-^.

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