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puddin:

Spoilers
ARRIVAL/ Speculation
Well, we've all seen or heard the hype (see above) about a "dramatic" change in the game. This much we know:
- The Early Show cast reveal states that all 20 contestants start the game as one tribe. We see three of the women (sans buffs) emerging from the water in street clothes, suggesting they're initially thrown overboard (again) to get to their 10-person rowboats. Later, we see shots of all 20 sitting around a camp marked with a generic (non-tribal) Survivor flag, (mostly) pre-stubble for the men, with nobody wearing buffs. Fair enough...
- A Mark Burnett interview further alleges: "Two people don't make it to the first challenge. That's how tough it is. It's very emotional."
- The Early Show also showed Kimberly putting on (apparently) a blue buff. This presumably comes at the first challenge.

A safe assumption is that, at this time, the "one tribe" nonsense ends, and we see the 18 remaining contestants split up into tribes. That number could allow either two or three tribes. At this point, it's not clear how many there are. Early indications seem to suggest two (blue and brown, with the names Dan Bollinger of SurvivorMaps posted: Ulong and Koror). But we'll wait for further vidcaps or information before deciding.

So who might those two unlucky contestants who fail to make it to the first challenge be? The Early Show also shows Jeff Probst leading the contestants along their beach, presumably to that first challenge. Has the first cut already been made? Probst looks rather grim. If so, we can positively identify all the men in the walking shots, and only Wanda, Ashlee, Caryn and Jolanda are unaccounted for. Could one or more of those be among the first cuts? Maybe. Since it's not clear when the cuts occur (perhaps after the hike?), it may mean nothing. Stay tuned.
http://truedorktimes.com/survivor_palau/spoilers/

SURVIVOMETER 10!
http://truedorktimes.com/survivor_palau/survivometer10.htm

puddin:
ARRIVAL/ Speculation
Well, we've all seen or heard the hype (see above) about a "dramatic" change in the game. This much we know:
- The Early Show cast reveal states that all 20 contestants start the game as one tribe. We see shots of all 20 sitting around a camp marked with a generic (non-tribal) Survivor flag, (mostly) pre-stubble for the men, with nobody wearing buffs. Eventually, they (probably all 20 "they"s) go for a walk with Jeff Probst.
- A Mark Burnett interview further alleges: "They're given very little instruction about what to do, and some of them are genuinely lost. Two people don't make it to the first challenge. That's how tough it is. It's very emotional."
- The Early Show also showed Kimberly putting on a blue buff. This presumably comes at or just before the first challenge. Dan Bollinger reports the tribe names will be Ulong and Koror, and pictures of buffs have been reported by palau islander and Virtual Vanuatu/ Port Vila Presse. SurvivorPhoenix has a nice picture of the three buffs (which we stole, below).
- The NFL promo from 1/23 shows Coby standing in front of a brown flag/banner, with what appears to be "Koror" (or at least "ror") on it. This suggests Koror is the brown tribe. The TV Guide Channel preview shows Bobby Jon in a blue buff.

As far as we can tell, all of the footage released with the unveiling of the cast on January 13th (see Early Show and other news show vidcaps) came from the first day. Additional Ep1 footage showed up in the web promo released 1/21, and subsequent TV ads (see here). Here's our rough sequencing of the oh-so-exciting events of the first day. It's not clear whether they split up into separate tribes on day one, day two, or what. Early day two would be our guess, if new camps need to be built:
TRIBAL SEPARATION/ Two tribes? Three?
DOUBLE ELIMINATIONS/ Wanda? Another woman?
So who might those two unlucky contestants who fail to make it to the first challenge be, and how are they weeded out? VolcanicGlass at Survivor Phoenix reports two key spoilers here:
- (1) The separation into tribes will be done by picking new tribes: "We will see a competition, though NOT a challenge. The competition should yield two winners who will begin a pick'em style chain selection for members of each squad... oops, make that 'each tribe'. The last two players remaining will be cut at this point ... oops, make that 'eliminated'."
- (2) Wanda apparently is one of those two not making the cut. The other is allegedly female. Maybe.

For the second eliminated (ex-) contestant, we can exclude Kimberly, Angie, Janu, Bobby Jon (unequivocal shots in buffs), Coby (tribal flag), and James (challenge-looking picture). We're not sure who the second person is, at least not at this time.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE/ Speculation
With so many young, strong contestants, we would expect this first challenge to be relatively physically demanding. Coincidentally, some tires apparently used as tribal challenge props, which had been left behind in Palau, were recently reported by Fish'n'Fins, and relayed by Wezzie. What's interesting about the tires is that they have markings on them that match the color schemes of the three buffs. Survivor Sucks EZ board poster Biancaxxx states cryptically, "you'll see those tires in the first ep."

Based on past series, there's a good chance this will be multistage challenge, incorporating both strength and balance. Kimberly, Angie and James all appear to be traversing something balance-oriented in various promo caps, so an obstacle course is not unlikely (and since Katie and Angie are in buffs, this is probably not the tribal separation "competition"). Katie is visible n the beach, apparently exerting herself over something. And a soggy Bobby Jon is shown in the water next to barrel/log-type object. He doesn't look happy. Apart from that, not much yet. Bring on TV Guide.
BOOT/ Jeff? Bobby Jon? Caryn? Janu?
No early-breaking spoilers on this yet, but the 1/21 web promo may make some hints about people potentially in trouble. If past series are any guide, early boots often appear unhappy in the previews for the show in which they are booted. Additionally, being in water is generally a bad omen (fire is life, after all). Along these lines, several people make out-of-context grimaces in the web promo (see below), including Bobby Jon, Ian, Janu and Caryn. Send in the frowns (we caption the last one, "Here I am Silas! Come and get it!"):
   

We note that Bobby Jon is shown not only grimacing, but in the water as well (this may be from a challenge, perhaps falling off a balance beam-type object). So he was our early favorite for the first boot. But with his image in almost every commercial CBS runs, would he really be out so quickly? Maybe not. Ian is also heavily featured, shaking his wet hair, and with his face in his hands. But several people seem to think he lasts a while, so we'll remove him from consideration. So we'll go with a dark horse: Jeff Wilson. In Probst's circa-start-of-the-game cast synopses (transcripts here), the host has a very low opinion of Jeff's chances. And in his own pre-game interview (read/watch here), Jeff himself contemplates (and summarily rules out) being the first person voted out. Close enough... for now, at least.


{ from what I heard..Caryn is safe as well as Janu..I'm leaning towards Bobby or Jeff for the first boot , puddin}

puddin:

TDT

cinni:
i can't read tdt at work, what's there now?

puddin:
You work cinni ? ]:,
BOOT/ Jolanda?
Jeff Probst seems to be hinting strongly that the first boot, and perhaps many early boots on one tribe, is a physically strong player: "The message that they (the players) are going to find out is if you vote out your strong simply because they are strong… go ahead… but odds are, you will back at Tribal Council," he said in a recent interview, as described in Jam! Showbiz. Probst repeated the same spiel on "Good Day Live" on 2/16. Going on the (perhaps erroneous) assumption that Ulong will be heading to tribal council first, we'd list Jolanda as the prime target, with Ibrehem, Jeff and Bobby Jon as less likely possibilities.

- Jolanda is a world-class athlete, who Probst describes as "imposing" and "intimidating" (at least until she disarms you with a smile). The difference between Jolanda and the strong men of Ulong is that CBS has played up the flirting/sex appeal intentions of the men (Bobby Jon, Ibrehem and Jeff), which should keep them around. Jolanda is older, and a mom (albeit a single one). We doubt she'd be too interested in the raging hormones of her tribemates, thus keeping her out of the loop, and making her a target. Furthermore, callmecrazee at Sucks strongly hints that Jolanda is indeed the first boot. We'll go with that.

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