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TAR 21 Predictions

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Charlie90:
Well technically, they were still predicting.... :)

apskip:

--- Quote from: Zack. on June 03, 2012, 06:09:17 PM ---Wouldn't it be more conducive to analyze the continents by population or even by economy, as that motivates infrastructure, transport, lodging, possible financial incentive, etc.? In that respect the division of legs is expected (more legs in Europe than in Africa, more legs in Asia than in South America and so on).

Also, I think we'll have a visit to Russia this year, especially if we're still in Asia in leg 4. It could end up being the inverse of TAR 14, with Asia - Asian Russia - Europe.

--- End quote ---
Zach,
It sure sound good, but then what would the result be?
For example if you apportion Amazing Race legs by population then here are the abbreviated results:

China 19.2%
India  17.25%
US     4.47%
Indonesia 3.39%
Brazil 2.74%
Pakistan 2.56%
Nigeria 2.32%
Russia 2.04%
Bangladesh 2.03%
Japan 1.82%
Mexico 1.6%
Philippines 1.32%
Vietnam 1.25%
Ethiopia 1.2%
Egypt 1.17%
Germany 1.17%
Iran 1.09%
Turkey 1.06%
countries listed as #21 to #240 the remainder, each with <1.0%

So, would you want an Amazing Race that visited China one out of every 5 legs (about double the historical amount) and India one out of every 6 legs (also about double the historical amount)? I wouldn't.


I think a good argument can be made (by me in a previous post) that land area is a reasonable proxy for numbers of Amazing Race legs per country. It's not perfect, but it's close enough. None of the other measures you have suggested are very easy to measure and translate into Amazing Race leg count.
 

redskevin88:
My prediction is that they when to some remote part of Russia for Leg 4 where there is no Internet (or Internet connection is poor) so we have no spoilers. And for Leg 5, maybe they when to some part of Scandinavia where there are few people and so little spoilers. 

We should see the teams soon when Leg 6 and Leg 7 begin filming.

Mug Costanza:
My prediction is Maldives for Leg 4. It fits geographically where the race would be heading, and it's somewhere that there wouldn't be a lot of people posting/tweeting/FB'ing spoilers, I would imagine.

tarflyonthewall:
Yeah, we're due for our every-fourth-season visit to Russia. :P

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