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Vanuatu Premiere Speculations

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Brown Guy:
Okay today i was sitting here reading some posts when i thought about doing some logical thinking about the premiere. It is advertised everywhere that S9 will premiere in September. And correct me if im wrong but Survivor episodes usually premiere on;

1 x Wednesday Premiere
2 x Sunday Premiere
5 x Thursday Premiere

Well considering the trend there is a 63 % chance of a Thursday Premiere, 25 % chance of Sunday Premiere and 12% chance of Wednesday Premiere. So using these dates:

Wednesdays in September: 1, 8, 15, 22, 29
Sundays in September: 5, 12, 19, 26
Thursdays in September: 2, 9, 16, 23, 30

Next well divide the month in to 4 quadrants:
1-7, 8-15, 16-23, 24-31
And now we will place the dates in to each quadrant:
Q1 1-7: 3, 21%
Q2 8-15: 4 29%
Q3 16-23: 4 29%
Q4 24-31: 3 21%

Now out of all survivor premieres there are 2 in september, Pearl Islands September 18th, and Survivor Thailand September 19th

So taking that in to account the greatest chance is that the Premiere will be in Q3 of September so the 4 dates are;
September 16, 18, 22, 23
Now using the previous stats these days correspond with these days:
Wednesday: 22
Thursday: 16, 23
Sunday: 19,

Now that we have these four dates in with the days, u can see that there are 2 Thursdays and 1 each of the other 2. This means that These are the possible chances:
Formula: day possiblility percentage divided by 4 times 100 (eg. Wednesday: .12/4=0.03x100=3)
Wednesday September 22nd: 3
Thursday September 16: 16
Thursday September 23: 16
Sunday September 19th: 6.25
                          Total: 41.25
Now im going to divide the date numbers from the previous equation with the total and multiply times 100 so the final possibilities are:

Wednesday September 22nd: 7.27%
Thursday September 16: 38.79%
Thursday September 23: 38.79%
Sunday September 19th: 15.15%

So according to my calculations the top 4 likely dates are:
1.Thursday September 16: 38.79%
2.Thursday September 23: 38.79%
3.Sunday September 19th: 15.15%
4.Wednesday September 22nd: 7.27%

Now remember this is all speculation and my figures or calculations can be completely wrong. But if somehow one of these 4 dates ends up to be rite i shall then forth will be known as the "Brown Einstein Guy"

LOL any thoughts, or maybe somebody wanna try to prove me wrong?

puddin:
 :D :D I don't dare try to argue with you BrownGuy  :D !! I can't wait to see how you predictions turn out   :;>) This is the one that i'll choose ~2.Thursday September 23: 38.79%

nelehrox:
Wow lol thats a lot of confusing stuff...so Im just gonna go with September 19th because thats when they premeired Thailand.

Rob:
Jeepers, talk about thinking something out!!!! WOW! I think you are on to something there!

Rob

nelehrox:
Now I am gonna go with the 16th...cuz that is the earliest one on the list of the four most likely. ;D

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