The Amazing Race > The Amazing Race Discussion
Some interesting (and some not so interesting) facts and records!
SuperTux:
Many curses are inexplicable in terms of probabilities.
For example, the Leg 3 curse. Given that each team is as competitive as each other, and 8 teams remain after Leg 3. In this case, the probability of the situation that the winners of Leg 3 fail to win the race is 7/8. This has happened 29 times. (US 18, CR 2, Aus 1, Israel 1, LA 2, Brazil 1, Asia 4.) Therefore, the probability of the existence of this curse is (7/8)^29=0.02. If we take into account other similar reality shows like Pekin Express and Shanghai Rush, the value would be even lower. (The only TAR-like show that has broken this curse is Expedition Impossible whose producer Mark Burnett, interestingly, hates people comparing these two shows.)
As to the Leg 1 curse for the 5th, 7th and 10th, given that 10 teams remain after Leg 1, the probability of the case that all three teams fail to win the race is 7/10. This has happened 18 times in the US version, and therefore the probability of the existence of this curse is (7/10)^18=0.0016. It is even lower than that of the Leg 3 curse. Thus we should not overlook this curse. ;)
Dom:
--- Quote from: Best Loser on November 30, 2011, 01:38:27 AM ---Highest average without a leg won- Sean & Amy's (6th) 2.83 vs. Terrence & Sarah's (5th) 3.25
--- End quote ---
That's a great one! I'll include that in the original post! However, on Leg 5 of S13, Terrence & Sarah were retrospectively given a 30-minute penalty which, while they were checked in in 3rd, they were actually later brought down to fifth, and departed the next leg in fifth.
I'd count 5th as their official check-in position, which would bring their average down to 3.5, making Joseph & Monica of Season 9 the highest ranked team without winning a leg, with an average position of 3.4.
Dom:
--- Quote from: SuperTux on November 30, 2011, 03:16:26 AM ---Many curses are inexplicable in terms of probabilities.
For example, the Leg 3 curse. Given that each team is as competitive as each other, and 8 teams remain after Leg 3. In this case, the probability of the situation that the winners of Leg 3 fail to win the race is 7/8. This has happened 29 times. (US 18, CR 2, Aus 1, Israel 1, LA 2, Brazil 1, Asia 4.) Therefore, the probability of the existence of this curse is (7/8)^29=0.02. If we take into account other similar reality shows like Pekin Express and Shanghai Rush, the value would be even lower. (The only TAR-like show that has broken this curse is Expedition Impossible whose producer Mark Burnett, interestingly, hates people comparing these two shows.)
As to the Leg 1 curse for the 5th, 7th and 10th, given that 10 teams remain after Leg 1, the probability of the case that all three teams fail to win the race is 7/10. This has happened 18 times in the US version, and therefore the probability of the existence of this curse is (7/10)^18=0.0016. It is even lower than that of the Leg 3 curse. Thus we should not overlook this curse. ;)
--- End quote ---
You're right with the near-impossible likelihood of those particular 'curses' occurring, but with such a small sample size such as the number of TAR seasons, you're actually almost guaranteed to encounter a few 'curses'. There could have easily been a 'Leg 4' curse or a 'If you finish '3rd, 6th and 8th in the 2nd leg' curse. Of course, these outcomes are just as unlikely, but if you think about it, there are probably so many thousands of potential curses that you're always bound to end up with some of them.
Basically, with a sample size of the number of TAR seasons (30 or so), you're almost guaranteed to have at least some 'curses'.
With a sample size of 300 or so TAR seasons, we'd be virtually guaranteed not to have any curses.
Prophet:
The Leg Three curse is explainable, IMO, because of psychological and physical reasons. Teams that tend to win that leg usually burn out by the end of the Race. This curse even works in Fantasy Races, so it must be real!
Best Loser:
--- Quote from: Dom El on November 30, 2011, 03:19:01 AM ---
--- Quote from: Best Loser on November 30, 2011, 01:38:27 AM ---Highest average without a leg won- Sean & Amy's (6th) 2.83 vs. Terrence & Sarah's (5th) 3.25
--- End quote ---
That's a great one! I'll include that in the original post! However, on Leg 5 of S13, Terrence & Sarah were retrospectively given a 30-minute penalty which, while they were checked in in 3rd, they were actually later brought down to fifth, and departed the next leg in fifth.
I'd count 5th as their official check-in position, which would bring their average down to 3.5, making Joseph & Monica of Season 9 the highest ranked team without winning a leg, with an average position of 3.4.
--- End quote ---
I knew there was a reason I had it listed as 3.5 before. I actually changed it just the other day because I read something that said it was 3.25. Time credits and penalties assessed the following leg make finding the averages confusing. Is it better to count when they arrived or when they left?
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