Archive > The Amazing Race 18 Spoilers and Speculation
TAR 18 Ep 6 "I Feel Like a Monkey in a Circus Parade" (Kolkata, India)
maf:
And there is another couple of data points you need to take into consideration. The first two cups were found fairly quickly. Ron got his at 10.07 and Jet at 10.10. So they did not follow a random process.
I would guess that the first teams managed to smell their way to the right cups, but the longer teams stayed in the room the less sensitive their smell became due to sensory overload with all the teas and fruit.
Chateau d If:
I think the nosy ones made it worse for the rest :lol:
Imagine if 7 racers zeroed in on their 7 good cups in the first try. Then Luke would have to hunt against 3 in 993 odds! :groan: Apskip will report that it will take Luke 167 tries to find his tea.
Running the model again with 1000 cups on the tables gives the target 7th and 8th place times when the durations are increased by 50%: 45 sec to taste and 45 sec to get judged (done every 5 cups).
It just makes me more sure that one or more of the good cups went to waste. :(
Dånooky:
--- Quote from: Chateau d If on April 01, 2011, 01:29:19 PM ---I think the nosy ones made it worse for the rest :lol:
Imagine if 7 racers zeroed in on their 7 good cups in the first try. Then Luke would have to hunt against 3 in 993 odds! :groan: Apskip will report that it will take Luke 167 tries to find his tea.
Running the model again with 1000 cups on the tables gives the target 7th and 8th place times when the durations are increased by 50%: 45 sec to taste and 45 sec to get judged (done every 5 cups).
It just makes me more sure that one or more of the good cups went to waste. :(
--- End quote ---
It's like the haybales all over again
apskip:
What all the analysis above proves is that different assumptions lead to different results. It is fairly obvious that assuming 10 cups ( I actually did a model starting with that before switching to 8 cups because it was not realistic in conjunction with the other assumptions I used) and altering the time to taste per cups and altering the time to get an answer from the tea master affects the results of any model.
On the question of how many cups there were, the fact that the top number shown is 954 proves absolutely nothing. When you have 1500 cups of tea, that number can be in a range from 751 to 1500.
Dånooky:
--- Quote from: apskip on April 02, 2011, 01:58:03 PM ---What all the analysis above proves is that different assumptions lead to different results. It is fairly obvious that assuming 10 cups ( I actually did a model starting with that before switching to 8 cups because it was not realistic in conjunction with the other assumptions I used) and altering the time to taste per cups and altering the time to get an answer from the tea master affects the results of any model.
On the question of how many cups there were, the fact that the top number shown is 954 proves absolutely nothing. When you have 1500 cups of tea, that number can be in a range from 751 to 1500.
--- End quote ---
I had the impression that the cups were being replaced at the beginning, though.
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