Archive > The Amazing Race 17 Spoilers & Speculation
Who Do You Think Will Win TAR 17?
Prophet:
--- Quote from: Coutzy on November 17, 2010, 08:17:01 AM ---
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 17, 2010, 08:10:51 AM ---
--- Quote from: DrRox on November 16, 2010, 09:07:46 PM ---
--- Quote from: Joab on November 16, 2010, 08:18:17 PM ---But don't forget, Brooke and Claire has the best average now. We never had that kind of performance from an all-female team for a long long time already! :tup:
--- End quote ---
Well, that is true, but we know that average is going to take a hit in the Bangladesh episode. At least comapred to J/T and N/K.
--- End quote ---
But do averages really matter? In last season's final Jet and Cord averaged 2.5, Dan and Jordan averaged 3.5 and Brent and Caite averaged 4.3. Through week six (halfway) D/J were averaging 6.1.
But some winners have good averages, Tammy and Victor only finished outside the top 3 once and Meghan and Cheyne only finished outside the top two twice. It is not a qualifying statistic.
--- End quote ---
Ask Eric and Jeremy about averages and what they mean. I'm sure they'll have lots to say about it.
--- End quote ---
Oh yeah, I should have included them! They only finished out of the top two once BJ and Tyler were NEL twice!
Coutzy:
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 17, 2010, 08:17:39 AM ---
--- Quote from: Joab on November 17, 2010, 08:00:01 AM ---Poor Brooke and Claire.
But you never know. The Lyns were Yielded and still come in second. :tup:
--- End quote ---
The Yield cannot be compared to the U-turn. The U-turn is 100% lethal while the Yield rarely eliminated the yielded team.
It was usually worse for the Yielder. Remember when Bj and Tyler yielded Mojo and finished last. Or in the leg you mentioned D/K finished in last after yielding "the lyns". Or when Oswald and Danny yielded Eric and Danielle and finished in last. Or when Adam & Rebecca yielded Freddy and Kendra and finished after them. Maybe Charla and Mirna were right about "yield karma."
--- End quote ---
The so-called "Lethality" of the U-Turn is an exaggeration, let us examine.
S12- 2 U-Turns. Lorena and Jason (Who started a significant way behind) get U-Turned by a paranoid Shana and Jennifer. Lorena and Jason had not seen another team all day, so they were staring down the barrel of elimination anyway. The 2nd U-Turn (Kynt & Vyxsin -> Nick & Don) was wasted.
S13- No U-Turns used.
S14- 2 U-Turns played. Margie and Luke hit Amanda and Kris with a Blind U-Turn, and Amanda and Kris are unable to complete the 2nd Detour quickly enough to remain competitive in the leg. In the other Kisha and Jen complete their U-Turn in 3rd (of 4) and remain ahead of Jamie and Cara until a bad taxi and a million dollar pee break cause their demise. While the U-Turn certainly assisted in the comeback of the redheads, it cannot be held entirely responsible for it.
S15- Lance and Keri play a Blind U-Turn on Sam and Dan, who were ahead of them at the time. The U-Turn goes unaired.
S16- Joe and Heidi get U-Turned by Mike and Louie. Joe spends some time being bitter about it, then they go try the now-infamous morse code task, which they cannot complete. I believe had they been able to, they may have been spared. (I also believe that it is excellent strategy to force a team to complete a task that by all accounts was nearly impossible.)
Carol and Brandy get U-Turned by Brent and Caite. They spend even more time being bitter about it than Bitters McBitterson when he heard that Fosters group had come up with Victoria Bitter. They also finish last, well behind.
Season 17 has a double U-Turn. What exactly comes of it remains to be seen.
The current numbers have the U-Turn actually forcing a team into last place at (currently) 60% (3/5), while the Yield sits at 30% (4/12). Due to the significantly smaller sample size for the U-Turn to draw from, such fluctuations are to be expected. I think the U-Turn is no more deadly than the Yield.
Also noteworthy- A team that was on the receiving end of the Yield has only been eliminated ONCE (Danielle and Dani) For some reason, CBS loved pairing them up with NEL's
Jobby:
I can only think of Joe and Heidi, Amanda and Kris, Carol and Brandy and Kisha and Jen who has been greatly affected by the U-TURN. Of which, only Joe and Heidi's elimination can be credited mostly due to the U-TURN. Other than that, the other three teams were almost in the back of the pack and the fact that they didn't reach the U-TURN fast enough.. and try to catch up some time while doing their U-TURN resulted in their elimination. Of course without the U-TURN, they might have stayed on.. but you really never know. Especially with Kisha and Jen, even after the U-TURN they were in front of Cara and Jaime.. so what ultimately resulted in their elimination was bad cab + pee break.
Given Brooke and Claire's ability, i think they will nail the U-TURN next week.
Prophet:
--- Quote from: Coutzy on November 17, 2010, 08:37:05 AM ---The so-called "Lethality" of the U-Turn is an exaggeration, let us examine.
S12- 2 U-Turns. Lorena and Jason (Who started a significant way behind) get U-Turned by a paranoid Shana and Jennifer. Lorena and Jason had not seen another team all day, so they were staring down the barrel of elimination anyway. The 2nd U-Turn (Kynt & Vyxsin -> Nick & Don) was wasted.
S13- No U-Turns used.
S14- 2 U-Turns played. Margie and Luke hit Amanda and Kris with a Blind U-Turn, and Amanda and Kris are unable to complete the 2nd Detour quickly enough to remain competitive in the leg. In the other Kisha and Jen complete their U-Turn in 3rd (of 4) and remain ahead of Jamie and Cara until a bad taxi and a million dollar pee break cause their demise. While the U-Turn certainly assisted in the comeback of the redheads, it cannot be held entirely responsible for it.
S15- Lance and Keri play a Blind U-Turn on Sam and Dan, who were ahead of them at the time. The U-Turn goes unaired.
S16- Joe and Heidi get U-Turned by Mike and Louie. Joe spends some time being bitter about it, then they go try the now-infamous morse code task, which they cannot complete. I believe had they been able to, they may have been spared. (I also believe that it is excellent strategy to force a team to complete a task that by all accounts was nearly impossible.)
Carol and Brandy get U-Turned by Brent and Caite. They spend even more time being bitter about it than Bitters McBitterson when he heard that Fosters group had come up with Victoria Bitter. They also finish last, well behind.
Season 17 has a double U-Turn. What exactly comes of it remains to be seen.
The current numbers have the U-Turn actually forcing a team into last place at (currently) 60% (3/5), while the Yield sits at 30% (4/12). Due to the significantly smaller sample size for the U-Turn to draw from, such fluctuations are to be expected. I think the U-Turn is no more deadly than the Yield.
Also noteworthy- A team that was on the receiving end of the Yield has only been eliminated ONCE (Danielle and Dani) For some reason, CBS loved pairing them up with NEL's
--- End quote ---
My point was that no team has ever survived in a leg in which they were U-turned. Therefore, no matter the exact circumstances, the simple fact is that U-turn=elimination. This fact is what has prompted the double U-turn, because they want it to be a race between two unfortunates.
Besides the fact that Yields were usually with NEL's the yielded team rarely finished in last and as I showed, many times the yielder was NEL. Strange...
Coutzy:
--- Quote from: the-pr0phet on November 17, 2010, 09:10:20 AM ---
--- Quote from: Coutzy on November 17, 2010, 08:37:05 AM ---The so-called "Lethality" of the U-Turn is an exaggeration, let us examine.
S12- 2 U-Turns. Lorena and Jason (Who started a significant way behind) get U-Turned by a paranoid Shana and Jennifer. Lorena and Jason had not seen another team all day, so they were staring down the barrel of elimination anyway. The 2nd U-Turn (Kynt & Vyxsin -> Nick & Don) was wasted.
S13- No U-Turns used.
S14- 2 U-Turns played. Margie and Luke hit Amanda and Kris with a Blind U-Turn, and Amanda and Kris are unable to complete the 2nd Detour quickly enough to remain competitive in the leg. In the other Kisha and Jen complete their U-Turn in 3rd (of 4) and remain ahead of Jamie and Cara until a bad taxi and a million dollar pee break cause their demise. While the U-Turn certainly assisted in the comeback of the redheads, it cannot be held entirely responsible for it.
S15- Lance and Keri play a Blind U-Turn on Sam and Dan, who were ahead of them at the time. The U-Turn goes unaired.
S16- Joe and Heidi get U-Turned by Mike and Louie. Joe spends some time being bitter about it, then they go try the now-infamous morse code task, which they cannot complete. I believe had they been able to, they may have been spared. (I also believe that it is excellent strategy to force a team to complete a task that by all accounts was nearly impossible.)
Carol and Brandy get U-Turned by Brent and Caite. They spend even more time being bitter about it than Bitters McBitterson when he heard that Fosters group had come up with Victoria Bitter. They also finish last, well behind.
Season 17 has a double U-Turn. What exactly comes of it remains to be seen.
The current numbers have the U-Turn actually forcing a team into last place at (currently) 60% (3/5), while the Yield sits at 30% (4/12). Due to the significantly smaller sample size for the U-Turn to draw from, such fluctuations are to be expected. I think the U-Turn is no more deadly than the Yield.
Also noteworthy- A team that was on the receiving end of the Yield has only been eliminated ONCE (Danielle and Dani) For some reason, CBS loved pairing them up with NEL's
--- End quote ---
My point was that no team has ever survived in a leg in which they were U-turned. Therefore, no matter the exact circumstances, the simple fact is that U-turn=elimination. This fact is what has prompted the double U-turn, because they want it to be a race between two unfortunates.
Besides the fact that Yields were usually with NEL's the yielded team rarely finished in last and as I showed, many times the yielder was NEL. Strange...
--- End quote ---
Correlation =/= Causation.
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