The Amazing Race > The Amazing Race Discussion
Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams (TAR 1 - 33)
theschnauzers:
--- Quote ---theschnauzers, I noticed that Gary/Matt are listed as 15-04 instead of 15-05.
--- End quote ---
Fixed.
--- Quote ---Projected average placement for each team if that team ends up running the table on a 12-leg race:
--- End quote ---
I think it's more useful to look at the range from the best possible average to the worse possible average and still complete the Race (all 12 legs).
Lowest Placement for a final three team
5.1818
Lowest Placement by winning team
3.6153
Assuming best remaining performances are 6 placement points for 6 remaining legs, and 26 placement points for worse possible performance is (6-5-5-4-3-3) to reach final 3 and finish mat and three more eliminations, 2 NELs and final leg)
Jet-Cord 2.6666 16/6
22/12-42/12
Predicted range (1.8333 to 3.6666) Note if J-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.5000.
Steve-Allison 3.3333 20/6
26/12-46/12
Predicted range (2.1666 to 3.8333) Note if S-A were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 3.6666.
Carol-Brandy 4.0000 24/6
30/12-50/12
Predicted range (2.5000 to 4.1666) Note if C-B were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.0000.
Louie-Michael 4.8333 29/6
35/12-55/12
Predicted range (2.9166 to 4.5833) Note if L-M were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 4.4166
Brent-Caite 6.1666 37/6
43/12-63/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if B-C were to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833
Jordan-Daniel 6.1666 37/6
43/12-63/12
Predicted range (3.5833 to 5.2500) Note if J-Dwere to perform like this but win final leg, they’d end up with 5.0833
What this tells us:
Although Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite are just below the worst previous final three performance “threshold.” but only by .06 of a placement value, all of the remaining teams have a statistical chance of making final three.
Based on the past trends, all of the teams have at least a slight chance of winning....but Jordan-Daniel and Brent-Caite have the least chance.... but it's close to no chance.
Jet-Cord have the best chance of winning, and they’re just this close to becoming prohibitive favorites, based on the trend from past seasons. While they can’t surpass Eric-Jeremy, they still can become the second best performing team, (TAR 15 winners Meghan-Cheyne were 2.0000.)
Thanks for the distraction. (My schnauzer unexpectedly took ill Tuesday night last week and then, passed away last Thursday morning with no warning, and it's been a very difficult week. I need to find and adopt another schnauzer (as they've been companions and service animals for me for 30 years, and this week is the first time in that time I haven't had one with me.)
georgiapeach:
I am so, so sorry about your schnauzer. Pets are family, and leave a huge hole in our lives when they go. Please know you have our sympathy for your loss.
slayton:
You have my deepest sympathies.
I was adding up the average placements for each season's final 4 by using your numbers and Uchenna & Joyce appear twice for TAR7.
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce 35/12 2.9166
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce 41/13 3.1538
Here are my calculations for the sum of the average placements of each season's final 4, based on numbers by theschnauzers, in order from lowest-total to highest-total:
I just added them all up.
01-01 Rob/Brennan 32/13 2.4615
01-02 Frank/Margarita 31/13 2.3846
01-03 Joe/Bill 36/13 2.7692
01-04 Kevin/Drew 37/11 3.3636
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 10.9789
09-01 BJ/Tyler 32/13 2.4615
09-02 Eric/Jeremy 22/13 1.6923
09-03 Ray/Yolanda 55/13 4.2307
09-04 Joseph/Monica 42/11 3.8181
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.2027
15-01 Meghan/Cheyne 24/12 2.0000
15-02 Sam/Dan 38/12 3.1666
15-03 Brian/Ericka 51/12 4.2500
15-04 Flight Time/Big Easy 34/11 3.0909
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.5075
08-01 Linz 31/11 2.8181
08-02 Bransen 35/11 3.1818
08-03 Weaver 36/11 3.2727
08-04 Godlewski 37/10 3.7000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 12.9727
03-01 Flo/Zach 35/13 2.6923
03-02 Teri/Ian 59/13 4.5384
03-03 Ken/Gerard 35/13 2.6923
03-04 Derek/Drew 34/11 3.0909
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.0139
14-01 Tammy/Victor 27/12 2.2500
14-02 Cara/Jaime 47/12 3.9166
14-03 Margie/Luke 33/12 2.7500
14-04 Kisha/Jen 47/11 4.2727
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.1893
05-01 Chip/Kim 44/13 3.3846
05-02 Colin/Christie 32/13 2.4615
05-03 Brandon/Nicole 43/13 3.3076
05-04 Linda/Karen 50/12 4.1666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3204
11-01 Eric/Danielle 47/13 3.6153
11-02 Dustin/Kandice 38/13 2.9230
11-03 Charla/Mirna 54/13 4.1538
11-04 Oswald/Danny 32/12 2.6666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3589
13-01 Nick/Starr 27/11 2.4545
13-02 Ken/Tina 29/11 2.6363
13-03 Andrew/Dan 57/11 5.1818
13-04 Toni/Dallas 31/10 3.1000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.3727
06-01 Freddy/Kendra 45/13 3.4615
06-02 Kris/Jon 31/13 2.3846
06-03 Adam/Rebecca 61/13 4.6923
06-04 Hayden/Aaron 35/12 2.9166
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.4550
10-01 Tyler/James 31/13 2.3846
10-02 Rob/Kimberly 39/13 3.0000
10-03 Lyn/Karlyn 65/13 5.0000
10-04 Dustin/Kandice 38/12 3.1666
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.5512
02-01 Chris/Alex 44/13 3.3846
02-02 Tara/Wil 33/13 2.5384
02-03 Blake/Paige 48/13 3.6923
02-04 Oswald/Danny 44/11 4.0000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.6153
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce 41/13 3.1538
07-02 Rob/Amber 30/13 2.3076
07-03 Ron/Kelly 39/13 3.0000
07-04 Meredith/Gretchen 59/11 5.3636
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 13.8251
12-01 Rachel/TK 35/11 3.1818
12-02 Ronald/Christina 38/11 3.4545
12-03 Nicolas/Donald 46/11 4.1818
12-04 Jennifer/Nathan 37/10 3.7000
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 14.5181
04-01 Reichen/Chip 40/13 3.0769
04-02 Kelly/Jon 50/13 3.8461
04-03 David/Jeff 52/13 4.0000
04-04 Jon/Al 41/11 3.7272
=========================================
Sum of Final 4 average placements --> 14.6502
I'll add the sums for each season's final 3 next.
theschnauzers:
--- Quote ---07-01 Uchenna/Joyce 35/12 2.9166
07-01 Uchenna/Joyce 41/13 3.1538
--- End quote ---
The set with 13 legs would be correct, I must have missed the 12 leg one when I fixed the list some weeks ago.
slayton:
...
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