The Amazing Race > The Amazing Race Discussion

Ranking the Teams -- A basis for comparing all teams (TAR 1 - 33)

<< < (8/76) > >>

Zack.:
If only Charla/Mirna had gotten 8th / 8th / 8th / 8th  :hearts:

almightyblue:
It's a great list. I calculate these myself every season, too (though you put much more thought into it than I do with mine), and they tend to be mostly accurate, but I find there are three flaws with using Finishing Averages to compare teams.  First off, it basically assumes that all casts are created equal, when in fact some races (like 10 and 14) are much stronger than others (like 4 and 15).  Dustin & Kandice had to go up against arguably the two toughest fields in Race history, and excelled against both of them, while Meghan & Cheyne got the benefit of going up against one of the weakest casts ever, and got inflated stats as a result.  A prime example of this is Eric, who, with his original partner, got the lowest Finishing Average of all time on Season 9, only to be, at best, the fifth strongest team on All-Stars (and that's only if you place them over Uchenna & Joyce, which I'm hesitant to do myself).  Yes, he had a new partner who was a weaker racer, but that can't account for everything, not when they were terrible at booking flights.

The second and third flaws kind of go hand in hand, and can be demonstrated with the same example.  Second is that these averages tend to favor teams that start out strong, then fade over the course of the race (like Ken & Tina) over teams that start out slow and get stronger as they go along (Jaime & Cara are a key example), as struggling in early legs tends to produce 8th and 9th place finishes, while struggling later on gives 4th and 5th.  Third, using only Finishing Averages to compare teams is like using only batting averages to compare hitters, it only gives a partial view of what a team did.

These two can both be demonstrated by again using Eric & Danielle on All-Stars, who did win their race, but were probably the worst team to ever win in comparison with the other teams on their season.  They were not in the same league as Dustin & Kandice or Rob & Amber, or even Danny & Oswald.  At best they were in the same league as Charla & Mirna and Uchenna & Joyce, and that's only by disregarding that they made three major airport mistakes that probably should have gotten them eliminated.  However, for now I'm only going to compare them to Charla & Mirna:

11-01 Eric/Danielle    47/13   3.6153
11-03 Charla/Mirna     54/13   4.1538

That right there would make you believe that Eric & Danielle were the better team, when in fact Charla & Mirna beat them in every other major statistical category.  Charla & Mirna won more legs (2-1, even though that one was the final leg), had more Top 2 (4-3) and Top 3 (7-6, this includes the final leg) finishes, and Eric & Danielle had more Bottom 2 finishes (at 5-4, though that doesn't include Charla & Mirna's 3rd place in the finale, as there was no chance for elimination).  The most telling stat, though, is that head to head Charla & Mirna won 7 of the 13 legs.  However, four of those legs were at the very beginning of the season, when the cousins were struggling.  From leg five, on, Charla & Mirna beat Eric & Danielle for seven straight legs (actually, Dustin & Kandice, Charla & Mirna, and Eric & Danielle finished in consecutive order for four straight legs, 8-11).  Even watching the race, without any of these stats, it was easy to see (at least in my mind) that Charla & Mirna were a much better team than Eric & Danielle.

Still, that is one of the few examples where the Finishing Averages doesn't work (at least when comparing teams to others on their own race).  Overall, I only see two other discrepancies, where I would easily rank one team over another despite the Finishing Averages saying otherwise.  That would be Dustin & Kandice being under Tyler & James on Season 10, and Jaime & Cara being under Mel & Mike on Season 14. 

almightyblue:

--- Quote from: revengefullycreative on February 09, 2010, 06:11:43 PM ---Others that have done that include Joe/Bill, Kris/Jon, and Eric/Jeremy.  And yeah, it's a shame that you didn't win. For a team to finish strong in the early stages, then mid-race, and then throughout the final segments of the race (where one would be very exhausted) for the win would be a feat that would be rather difficult to match.

--- End quote ---

Since we're talking about exclusive clubs, there have been only five teams to go through an entire race without ever being in danger of elimination.  More specifically, without ever finishing in the Bottom 2 on any given leg outside of the Final 3.  Those 5 teams are:

Rob & Brennan*
Frank & Margarita*
Dustin & Kandice (Season 11)
Margie & Luke
Meghan & Cheyne

Rob & Brennan and Frank & Margarita were slightly less impressive, as it was impossible for them to finish below 2nd on the last four legs of the season, the point at which it's easiest fall into the Bottom 2, and that is why the asterisk is present.

The most impressive is probably Dustin & Kandice, who did in on All-Stars, against a group of teams who had raced before.

theschnauzers:
Please read my introductory post. I fully recognize the limits of objective only measurements, but on the other hand, trying to play the adjustment game is a minefield because of the subjective element such a process would entail.

As to your Eric and Danielle example, let me tell a story. From season three through season 14, I played a player prediction game at TWoP. That documented who I picked to finish Final 3 if not win, which is why I mention it. When season 11 came around, I predicted pre-season that Eric and Danielle would win All-Stars. I based it on the fact that Eric was half of the best performing team by objective measure ever (and Eric-Jeremy still are) and my suspicion that like Zach in season three, Eric would have to "carry" Danielle through the season. (Which pretty much was the case.) You don't need twp great Racers to have a potential final three team, you need to have one, though, and the other team member has to listen and follow. (Which pretty much is what Danielle did, and they won.) And I don't share your high opinion of Charla and Mirna. I think Eric was clearly the better Racer than either of them, and I think he proved it on All-Stars.

(To finish the story, I decided after season 14 that I wouldn't play the prediction games any longer because of the spoiler issue with such games. Other players were using spoilers to play, and win, and I decided that wasn't fair to me. So had that site's game continued, I would not have participated last season and this season. And my choices tor last season and this season are in posts at RFF, so there is a record.)

Now if anyone wants to try to come up with some objective mechanism to measure strong cast or whatnot, they're perfectly free to try. I just don't think that it's possible, and while the approach I use isn't infallible, I truly don't believe there's going to be a better way of dealing with the season-to-season variations as to the structure of the Race course or the casts.

As to this:

--- Quote ---The most impressive is probably Dustin & Kandice, who did in on All-Stars, against a group of teams who had raced before.
--- End quote ---

Dustin and Kandice had also previously raced before All-Stars, and maybe had an advantage since they most recently Raced (compared to the other teams) before All-Stars.

almightyblue:

--- Quote from: theschnauzers on February 23, 2010, 06:30:05 PM ---Please read my introductory post. I fully recognize the limits of objective only measurements, but on the other hand, trying to play the adjustment games is a minefield because of the subjective element such a process would entail.

As to your Eric and Danielle example, let me tell a story. From season three through season 14, I played a player prediction game at TWoP. That documented who I picked to finish Final 3 if not win, which is why I mention it. When season 11 came around, I predicted that Eric and Danielle would win All-Stars. I based it on the fact that Eric was half of the best performing team by objective measure ever (and Eric-Jeremy still are) and my suspicion that like Zach in season three, Eric would have to "carry" Danielle through the season. (Which pretty much was the case.) You don't need twp great Racers to have a potential final three teams, you need to have one, though, and the other teams member has to listen and follow. (Which pretty much is what Danielle did, and they won.) And I don't share your high opinion of Charla and Mirna. I think Eric was clearly the better Racer than either of them, and I think he proved it on All-Stars.

(To finish the story, I decided after season 14 that I wouldn't play the prediction games because of the spoiler issue with such games. Other players were using spoilers to play, and win, and I decided that wasn't fair to me. So had that site's game continued, I would not have paticipated last season and this season. And my choices tor last season and this season are in posts at RFF, so there is a record.)

Now if anyone wants to try to come up with some objective mechanism to measure strong cast or whatnot, they're perfectly free to try. I just don't think that it's possible, and while the approach I use isn't infallible, I truly don't believe there's going to be a better way of dealing with the season-to-season variations as to the structure of the Race course or the casts.

As to this:

--- Quote ---The most impressive is probably Dustin & Kandice, who did in on All-Stars, against a group of teams who had raced before.
--- End quote ---

Dustin and Kandice had also previously raced before All-Stars, and maybe had an advatnage since they most recently Raced before All-Stars.

--- End quote ---

I did read the introductory post, and it doesn't change the fact that I was pointing out the obvious flaws that you yourself admitted to exist in your objective list.

And not only were Charla & Mirna a better team than Eric & Danielle, but I would take them over Eric & Jeremy as well.  Charla & Mirna raced against Colin & Christie, Rob & Amber, and Dustin & Kandice, three teams who left no doubt that they were three of the strongest teams to ever run the race, and did well against them, while Eric ran against a cream puff field, against only one other competent team, then struggled against stronger teams on All-Stars.  Charla & Mirna are also responsible for innovating several strategies that many teams use now, with both flight bookings and utilizing the locals, while the only brilliant idea Eric & Jeremy had was to cancel the other teams' cabs, and that would have gotten them penalized if it had worked.

Yeah, I thought highly of Eric prior to All-Stars, and had him finishing second pre-race, but to have picked him to win at mid-race, or even in the Top 4, would have been illogical, as it went against everything he had shown as a racer so far during that season.

The problem with your objective list is that it favors teams who cushioned their stats against weak fields, teams like Eric & Jeremy, BJ & Tyler, Meghan & Cheyne, and Nick & Starr, while punishing teams like Dustin & Kandice and Ronald & Christina, who not only had competition, but both started out slow, and didn't really get going until leg 5 or so.  Despite what your stats say, basic observation says that Eric & Jeremy and Meghan & Cheyne are not unstoppable powerhouses that would dominate any group of teams they were pitted against.  That should be saved for the likes of, I don't know, Colin & Christie, Rob & Amber, and Dustin & Kandice.

Speaking of Dustin & Kandice, the only real competition they have on that list is Margie & Luke, as Rob & Brennan and Frank & Margarita have the aforementioned asterisk, and Meghan & Cheyne were pitted against the most inept group of racers this side of Season 4, a group that had three teams essentially quit the race when they came up against such challenging tasks as going down a waterslide and spelling the word "Franz".

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[#] Next page

[*] Previous page