Archive > The Amazing Race 16 Spoilers/Speculation

TAR 16 Timeline Thread

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georgiapeach:
I thought you said they checked into Epernay on the eve of the 7th??

apskip:
 Neobie,

I quote from the Bible according to woden (also a darn good source) on page 1 of this thread:

Ep. 6 Champagne Region
Film Dates: DEC 9-10

EP07: Champagne-Ardennes, France to Seychelles
Film Dates: DEC 11

These are VASTLY different from your estimates, but I think things have changed since they were last updated. I offer my personal guesstimates on timing of legs based on my belief that there were extended pit stops in South America, Europe and in the Seychelles, with the exact location of those not relevant to this purpose. Also, all legs are same day affairs except for leg 2. Here are my guesstimates arranged as a block by continent:

South America 4 legs + 1 overnight + 1 extended pit stop (add one day on average for these) - arrive Nov. 29, leave Dec. 5
overnight flight to Europe - leave Dec. 5, arrive Dec. 6
Europe 3 legs + 1 extended pit stop - arrive Dec. 6 leave Dec. 10
overnight flight to Seychelles leave Dec. 10 arrive Dec. 11
Seychelles  1 leg, extended pit stop probably 36 hours (but we will see when the release times are posted next Sunday) - arrive Dec. 11, Phil departs Dec. 12, teams depart Dec. 13
overnight flight to Penang leave Dec. 13 arrive Dec. 14
Asia - we know that it has to be 4 legs, Penang, Singapore, Beijing, Beijing - arrive Dec. 14, depart Dec. 20  

So, above is the timing of AR16 according to apskip. Poke holes in it and use it as you see fit.

georgiapeach:
The summary is woden's baby this time, and a darned good job too!

We have these firm sightings to use...

EP08: Praslin, Seychelles to Penang, Malaysia
EVIDENCE: Phil spotted in Dubai en route to Malaysia (12/12 EK342 arriving 10:30am); team spotted en route from Kuala Lumpur to Penang (12/14)

Neobie:
Can you guys pick up any clues on whether the Hamburg/Les Monthairons Pit Stop lasted ~12h or ~36h? It could help us solve the Reims Pit Stop question...

Steve/Allie's train into Hamburg arrived at 8.35pm. Assuming that the fastest time to complete this leg is no shorter than an hour and a half, they would have checked in at no earlier than 10.05pm. Jeff/Jordan check out of Les Monthairons 2h 22min after Steve/Allie, meaning that they checked in at or after 12.27am on the morning of the 6th.

They've had some time to freshen up and change a shirt - Jeff changes his T-shirt before they board the bus at the hotel. With the post-leg transport and logistics that need to be done, which would take at least half an hour, I suppose the earliest they can leave Hamburg is at 12.57am.

Les Monthairons is 773km (480mi) away from Hamburg, a journey taking 7h 16min by car according to Google. That puts them into the Pit Start after 8.13am, possibly an hour or two later depending on the speed of a bus relative to that of a car. Louie/Michael leave the Pit Stop at 9.35am, after giving probably a short confessional about where they think they are. Are we cutting it a bit too close for it all to happen within the same evening?

Tangentially related: I agree with Woden that the Seychelles leg took place on the 11th. The difference is when the previous leg took place, which depends on how long the Pit Stops were.

Unrelated: We know that the Reims leg took place the day after the Verdun leg; Carol and Brandy mention "yesterday" in their Mat Chat. Given that Jordan/Jeff arrive just before sunset at 4.46pm (it turns dark before Phil eliminates Joe/Heidi), and they leave for the next leg at 10.28am, I'd say a ~18h Pit Stop in Wargemoulin?


--- Quote from: georgiapeach on March 29, 2010, 01:20:22 PM ---I thought you said they checked into Epernay on the eve(ning) of the 7th??
--- End quote ---

Yes, assuming the Hamburg Pit Stop was ~12h. Teams released from Epernay on the morning of the 10th would give us a 60h Pit Stop. If Hamburg lasted ~36h then the Epernay Pit Stop would accordingly be 36h. It is impossible for a ~48h Pit Stop as the early teams checked in under daylight at Epernay and left in the middle of the night.

10 Dec, morning: Teams released from Epernay
10 Dec, evening: Flight from Paris to Mahe
11 Dec: Race in Seychelles


--- Quote from: georgiapeach on March 29, 2010, 01:40:57 PM ---EP08: Praslin, Seychelles to Penang, Malaysia
EVIDENCE: Phil spotted in Dubai en route to Malaysia (12/12 EK342 arriving 10:30am); team spotted en route from Kuala Lumpur to Penang (12/14)
--- End quote ---

Yes, we have been using these flights for our calculations (although EK 342 departs, not arrives, at 10.30am). It is reasonably certain Phil was on these flights on 12 Dec:

EK 708 from Mahe to Dubai, 0145-0615
EK 342 from Dubai to Kuala Lumpur, 1030-2125

Which is what we used, before the season started, to ascertain that the Seychelles leg took place on 11 Dec.

apskip:
Neobie:

My flight times are:

LA6469 1810 2050 EZE GRU
LH9829 2245 1440 GRU FRA This was reported to leave at 2315 and arrive at 1422 on Dec. 6.
Best train departure from Frankfurt airport to Hamburg was 1537 arrive 2006. They could not catch either the 1447 departure  I can believe that the 1537 departure actually  arrived about a half hour late.

The second one was:
LH511 2150 1500 EZE FRA (with an actual reported departure of 2208 and arrival of 1445 on Dec. 6. This group should be able to get the 1537 train detailed above.

The third is problematical, as there is nothing that fits perfectly. The closest is
AF417 1800 1100 EZE CDG (reported actual departure 1756 and arrival 1101)
LH4219 1315 1435 CDG FRA (with an actual reported departure 1317 and arrival of 1442) This group should also be able to get the 1537 train detailed above.

Now the question is whether teams were able to sort out GermanRail train schedules and look for the first-arriving trains. I saw differences of up to 2 hours on Sunday Dec. 6 actual train durations. If teams went for the first-departing train they could have been screwed.

I think your distance from Hamburg to the Verdun area is off by a lot. My info does not show Verdun specifically, but the closest major city is Luxembourg at 513 km 319 miles 277 minutes(verified on two separate but probably affiliated calculators). Add in about 72 km 45 miles 60 minutes for Luxembourg to the Verdun area. the total is 364 miles and 337 minutes. That puts teams into the Les Monthairons at about 7:34am, considerably earlier than your estimate.
 

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