Archive > The Amazing Race 15 Spoilers
TAR15 EP8: "This is the Worst Thing I’ve Ever Done in My Life"
Chateau d If:
Apskip, you're right, I should not assume there are no hits in the process. I was considering the process up to the first hit only. But, it is easy to adapt the analysis for many hits. What I've done is to adjust the number of remaining flags after each flag is found. So, for example, (1 - 7/167) gets replaced with (1 - 6/167) after the first flag is found. I let the flags be found at the 50% point of each sequence of tries.
So the way this works is any or all teams are opening haybales. After the 18th haybale is opened there is a flag (we're going by the 50% rule). Now there are 167 haybales left and 6 flags left. After 19 more haybales are opened someone finds a 2nd flag (still going by the 50% rule). Now there are 148 haybales left and 5 flags left. After 20 more haybales are opened someone finds a 3rd flag (still going by the 50% rule). Now there are 128 haybales left and 4 flags left. After 21 more haybales are opened someone finds a 4th flag (still going by the 50% rule). Now there are 107 haybales left and 3 flags left. After 23 more haybales are opened the last racer finds the 5th flag (still going by the 50% rule). Now there are 84 haybales left and 2 flags left.
This
many This Flags
tries Probability Left
1 0.9624 7
2 0.926 7
3 0.8908 7
4 0.8567 7
5 0.8238 7
6 0.7919 7
7 0.7611 7
8 0.7313 7
9 0.7025 7
10 0.6747 7
11 0.6479 7
12 0.622 7
13 0.597 7
14 0.5728 7
15 0.5495 7
16 0.527 7
17 0.5053 7
18 0.4844 6 1st flag found after 18 tries
19 0.9643 6
20 0.9297 6
21 0.8961 6
22 0.8635 6
23 0.8319 6
24 0.8013 6
25 0.7716 6
26 0.7428 6
27 0.7149 6
28 0.6879 6
29 0.6618 6
30 0.6365 6
31 0.612 6
32 0.5883 6
33 0.5654 6
34 0.5432 6
35 0.5218 6
36 0.5011 6
37 0.4811 5 2nd flag found after 19 additional tries
38 0.9664 5
39 0.9338 5
40 0.902 5
41 0.8711 5
42 0.8411 5
43 0.8119 5
44 0.7835 5
45 0.7559 5
46 0.7291 5
47 0.7031 5
48 0.6778 5
49 0.6532 5
50 0.6294 5
51 0.6063 5
52 0.5838 5
53 0.562 5
54 0.5409 5
55 0.5204 5
56 0.5005 5
57 0.4813 4 3rd flag found after 20 additional tries
58 0.969 4
59 0.9387 4
60 0.9091 4
61 0.8802 4
62 0.852 4
63 0.8245 4
64 0.7977 4
65 0.7715 4
66 0.746 4
67 0.7211 4
68 0.6969 4
69 0.6733 4
70 0.6503 4
71 0.6279 4
72 0.6061 4
73 0.5848 4
74 0.5641 4
75 0.544 4
76 0.5244 4
77 0.5053 4
78 0.4868 3 4th flag found after 21 additional tries
79 0.9722 3
80 0.9449 3
81 0.9182 3
82 0.892 3
83 0.8663 3
84 0.8411 3
85 0.8164 3
86 0.7922 3
87 0.7684 3
88 0.7451 3
89 0.7223 3
90 0.7 3
91 0.6781 3
92 0.6567 3
93 0.6357 3
94 0.6152 3
95 0.5951 3
96 0.5755 3
97 0.5563 3
98 0.5375 3
99 0.5192 3
100 0.5013 3
101 0.4838 2 5th flag found after 23 additional tries
As you can see the average number of tries that the 5 racers make is 101/5 = 20.2. I know that this result differs from your average of 26.6. I think this is a somewhat complicated statistical problem. Applying 186 divided by 7 (186/7 = 26.6) to the problem without further accommodations for the changing odds is too much of a simplification that leads to an incorrect result.
Blob:
--- Quote from: walkingpneumonia on November 09, 2009, 10:59:17 AM ---Not sure if this was captured already - but the unused detour I believe was in Sigurdsristning:
http://www.sim1.se/swe/mal/sigurd/sigurd_01.html
Still trying to find the exact location in GE
--- End quote ---
Why do you believe that?
Blob:
--- Quote from: apskip on November 08, 2009, 08:57:54 PM ---
The ferry to Grona Lund goes takes only 5 minutes from Gamla Stand to Djurgarden Island. You can also get there from Slusseen Island in 8 minutes. Which one was correct for teams to get to Grona Lund? I don't know and may not be able to get appropraite information on this.
--- End quote ---
There are 5 different ferrylines, and dozens of stops around Stockholm
Slowhatch:
It would be interesting to know what their exact instructions were. Most teams took the regular Djurgarden ferry to Allmaana grand landing (seen here next to Grona Lunds), but Brian/Ericka took a Hop on Hop off sightseeing boat (which included free admission to GL!). Were they told to take a ferry or just a boat? And why no taxis?
apskip:
Slowhatch,
I again do not know for sure, but I am willing to hypothesize that no taxis were needed because the distance from the Arlanda Express to the dock is relatively short and could be done on foot if teams did not wish to take the tunnelbahn. Arland Express has a main station at Klarabergsviadukten 72. Here is a map of central Stockholm:
Central Stockholm Map
The place where the Arlanda Experss train arrives is near the label #53. The public transit network is shown below. It indicates that the Tunnelbahncan be taken from adjacent to Centralterminalen on the T-Centralen line one stop T-Gamla station to Slussen, where a short walk to the Djurgärdsfärjan ferry(dock marked #55 which is ont unique on the lower right of that island) will take them a few hundred yards mostly east to GronaLund.
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