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Jeff Probst blogs 'Survivor: Samoa'

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puddin:
 

Jeff Probst blogs 'Survivor: Samoa': episode #12
by Jeff Probst

Once again history repeats itself. It always does. Especially on Survivor. Anybody remember back on Survivor: All-Stars when Boston Rob pleaded with Lex to save his soon-to-be wife, Amber, promising his loyalty in return? We all remember how that turned out… Lex was the next person voted out. Sound familiar?

John made a huge move last week when he aligned with Russell and Foa Foa and switched his vote forcing Laura out of the game. It was a big move that I fully appreciated. He risked alienating Laura and other Galu members to put himself in a better position in the game. Unfortunately for John, the big move was poorly executed.As always hindsight is 20-20, so ”with all due respect” to John (which my buddy Lopez says means you don’t actually respect the person at all), I offer this analysis of why John is no longer in the game.

John made three big mistakes that led to his ouster. The first mistake John made was in making a deal with the one guy you simply cannot trust – Russell. Russell is nothing if not consistent and he is consistently untrustworthy.

Russell is also a great player. Yes, I said GREAT. Russell used John like a mercenary. By convincing John to switch sides, he got what he needed which was another Galu member voted out. That was John’s second mistake. He should have insisted that in order to get his vote, they must first vote out a Foa Foa. He didn’t. That was a fatal mistake. Because once Laura was voted out, John was no longer of any use.

From Russell’s vantage point, it was an easy and extremely wise vote to get rid of John as soon as possible. In doing so, Russell and the rest of the Foa Foa tribe officially changed the game. Foa Foa (plus Shambo) is now in control of the numbers. Brilliant.

AUCTION
One of the best ideas we’ve had in recent years was in Guatemala when we introduced the ”advantage” to the auction. Danni bid on the advantage, it helped her win the challenge and she ended up winning the game. Jaison made a great move in buying the advantage. It’s money well spent and we (producers) always make sure that the advantage is significant enough that if you play it right, you have a very good chance of winning the challenge. It’s the biggest move Jaison has made in the game and it paid off big time.

To be fair, it’s easy to sit at home and say Jaison made the right move in buying the advantage, but when he saw Mick buy an entire meal moments later for the same amount of money, believe me he had 2nd, 3rd, 4th thoughts about how he had spent his money.

But by the time the challenge came around Mick’s meal had already made it’s way in, through, and out his body and it clearly didn’t help him in the challenge. Good move, Jaison.

Side note: Dave Ball, thank you for not bidding on the shower.

APPLE PIE – THE THIRD MISTAKE
The biggest moment of the auction was not the $200 peanut butter and jelly sandwich that Natalie bought, nor was it Jaison buying the advantage in the challenge. The biggest moment of the auction was John deciding to not share the apple pie with the rest of the tribe. His third and final mistake.

John: I’m confident that nobody is going to vote me off because I didn’t give them a piece of apple pie.”

NOTE TO ALL FUTURE SURVIVORS: Whenever you are given a selfish vs. selfless choice, you ALWAYS choose the selfless option. Always, always, always. Survivor is a social game. John could have used that pie to buy a lot of good will from a lot of people, and I absolutely believe had he done so he would still be in the game. Instead he lost even more favor because he was seen as selfish. The truth is it was a golden opportunity that he wasted. Then again, I say that as I am finishing up a pizza while I write this blog. It’s a tough position to be in for sure, but that’s why we do it – to force the Survivors to make tough decisions.

We’ll never know for certain how much of a part it played in him being voted out, but it definitely did not help him, and had he given up the pie he might have saved himself. You never want to give anybody a reason to vote you out. Never.

While we’re at it, if you ever find yourself playing Survivor and muttering something that begins with: ”I’m confident…and ends with ”won’t get voted off” start packing your bag, cause the blindside is already in motion.

CHICKEN SOUP
Admittedly, Shambo is a bit of a kook, but you have to find a soft spot in your heart for a woman who shares a clearly heartfelt goodbye to an about-to-be slaughtered chicken and promises to see them in heaven when they’re back together… only moments before she cooks them over an open fire.

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
First off, Natalie was impressive. A major effort. I tested this challenge myself and those wooden planks were very heavy. Natalie dug deep and outlasted everybody except Dave and Jaison and Jaison had an advantage.

I was so happy to see the advantage pay off for Jaison. Not because I’m rooting for him but because I respect big moves. Spending all of his money for one advantage was a big move.

TRIBAL COUNCIL
The look of shock on John’s face was one of the best of the season. It was almost, not quite, but almost, hard for me to watch. He never ever saw it coming.

Also, I’m not sure why Laura is so concerned with whether Shambo knew what was going on or not, but it says to me that there is clearly still some bitterness between the two and if Shambo makes it to the final you can bet she will not have Laura’s vote.

So where do we stand now? Well, this much we know for sure: It is a new game. Foa Foa is now in charge and you can bet that Monica, Dave and Brett are very worried about their future.

The good news is that once again the numbers are uneven and that means that somebody on Foa Foa is now a potential swing vote. The remaining Galu members have to find the crack. They have to find out who is on the bottom of the Foa Foa totem pole and convince them that joining forces is in everybody’s best interest.

The only shot they have of pulling that off is if they start thinking like Russell and ask themselves, ”What Would Russell Do?”

See ya next week. Don’t forget to check out the deleted scene below and read Dalton’s recap.

http://popwatch.ew.com/2009/12/4/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-samoa-episode-12/

Jobby:
GMTA. Jeff thought not giving away the pie was a big deal and sealed John's fate too. ;D

TexasLady:

--- Quote from: Joab on December 05, 2009, 02:08:43 PM ---GMTA. Jeff thought not giving away the pie was a big deal and sealed John's fate too. ;D

--- End quote ---

I knew it was a huge mistake when he didn't share. Eating a PBJ sandwich or a chicken is one thing, sharing a pie with your fellow survivors when you have the opportunity is another.  :lol:

kittygoesmeow:
I was a bit confused on the pie thing. It was either he had one piece to himself, or he chose 4 people to split a pie, not including him, correct? That's how I understood it.

puddin:
Jeff Probst blogs 'Survivor: Samoa': episode #13
by Jeff Probst

Man, I gotta say… another awesome episode. Yeah I know I’m biased, but come on, that was a great show!

And now there is absolutely no debate. Foa Foa has done it. They have come back from an eight to four deficit and now are in charge of the game. Think of the odds Vegas would have given you on that not happening. Well, Vegas wouldn’t actually give you any odds, since they know the show has already been taped and they know that I would have emptied my bank account to take that bet and would now be retired living in Palau.

FIRST IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Nobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody went bowling… using a coconut for the ball. But it was a little bit exciting, right? I loved Jaison pacing around the deck “visualizing” his final immunity winning toss. But hey, it paid off and kept Jaison in the game one more day.

NATALIE DOES HER LAUNDRY
It was a small moment but I hope you caught it as it speaks to the essence of Survivor. Natalie, in the midst of living on an island with a group of strangers, battling physically, emotionally, and socially for a million dollar prize still takes the time to wash and then hang her underwear on a branch in an attempt to keep them clean. You don’t get that moment on any other show.

FIRST TRIBAL COUNCIL
I hated to see ole Danger Dave go home. It’s no secret I root for the guy. He should be proud he hung in there a long time in a very tough game, but now it’s jury time, brotha.

Monica is a risky player. All she had to do was say, “If you say Dave, I say Dave” and let it go. But Monica was playing to WIN, not take second. I appreciate that kind of play very much. The fact that it didn’t work is irrelevant. You have to be willing to make those kinds of moves to have any shot of winning.

THIS IS HOW YOU PLAY SURVIVOR
When Russell began to get worried about Mick turning on him he made a statement that speaks to the kind of game he is playing:

Russell: “That worries me that he’s gonna send me home, cause that’s what I would do.”

That sentence, especially those last six words, “cause that’s what I would do” is the absolute essence of how you should always play Survivor. John Nash, the dude that was the inspiration for the movie, “A Beautiful Mind” spelled it out clearly in his thoughts on game theory. He said you must always make your best move based on the assumption that the other person is making their best move. That means you have to get inside their head, think what their best move is, assume they will make that move and based on that make your best move.

When Russell says, “cause that’s what I would do” that is precisely what he is doing. That is how you have to play Survivor. It’s one of the main reasons Russell has been so successful in this game. He is playing an extremely intelligent game. Don’t judge that book by its cover or the lack of a tooth here or there, the guy is putting that little pirate head to good use.

SECOND IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Hmm… might as well just use the same line I used when describing the first immunity challenge:

“Nobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody…. had to jump on a board to launch a bag into a basket 12 feet in the air.”

Thirty-three days of no food reduced Monica’s body weight to such a low level that the poor thing didn’t weigh enough to even get the bag close to the basket above her head. Worse news, Brett won immunity. It forced her into a desperate position – convince two people from Foa Foa to turn on one of their own.

AND SO SHE TURNED UP THE HEAT
Monica did a good job of stirring up the dust. She did such a good job that it almost worked. And she brought up a topic that doesn’t get much attention but is often a major factor in who ends up winning the game…

I CAN MAKE OR BREAK YOU ON THE JURY
Okay, you want insight, here’s some insight. When Monica uttered those words to Russell: “I can make or break you on the jury” it was a million dollar threat. Mark my words… A million dollar THREAT.

When someone is voted out and joins the jury, there is absolutely nothing to stop them from talking to other jury members and trying to influence the vote at the final tribal council. A disgruntled jury member, (wait is that redundant?) could easily influence another jury member simply by making up a story that never happened and attribute it to someone who has made it to the final. In fact, it’s possible that one jury member could influence an entire jury. Even if we could keep the jury separated right up until tribal council, they could still talk and whisper to each other. So, what this means is you have to play an even better social game than it might appear. You have to develop such strong personal relationships that you are “lie proof” and that is not easy to do… but it is achieveable.

This season is still waaaaay up in the air. So many different ways it could turn depending on who makes it to the final.

We have two weeks left. Next Thursday and then the finale the following Sunday.

Stay with us… it’s gonna be good.


http://popwatch.ew.com/2009/12/11/jeff-probst-blogs-survivor-samoa-episode-13/


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