The Amazing Race International Versions > TAR Asia
TARA 3 - Episode 3 Discussion Thread ****HOT spoilers--beware!****
TARAsia Fan:
Good job with the recap, Calvin.
Boingo:
:angel: about time we moved the leg 4 preview spoiling/speculation to The Amazing Race Asia 3 Spoilers/Speculation thread ? :jam:
georgiapeach:
Sure! I can move stuff later if we need to...
You have stuff to post, Boingo! :lol3:
Chateau d If:
So, where where they when we saw the pink outfits behind the counter?
apskip:
I have done some simple factorial math to determine the dimensions of a trial and error approach that Natalie could have used to solve the order of the 7 coins. There were 7! = 5040 different orders possible. To have a 50% probability of success, this would have required 2520 tries. At one each 10 seconds(my guess at the time required to reset the order and have it judged), that would take 25,200 seconds or about 8 hours to reach the half-way point if she did not solve it along the way. Compared to the 4 hour penalty the penalty appears to be a good choice.
However, that is only true if you assume that Natalie is so bad in logic and writing things down that she cannot carry the simple (at least after finding out exactly what the requirement is) task of correct ordering. After knowing that it was based on the time span of the reign of each of the 7 monarchs, how hard could it be to go back and get the right information that she needed? Perhaps the fatigue over the race got to her and perhaps she just decided to underperform enough to be eliminated. One other thought is that Natalie may have been betting on the approximately 38% chance (based on 5 remaining elimination legs and 3 NELs that episode 3 would be non-elimination. However, Michael McKay has clearly been interfacing a lot with Bertram van Munster and one result is that ARA3 has opened with multiple elimination legs. That cuts the costs for the staff covering teams when they go to sequester where only one camera/sound crew is really needed.
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