Archive > The Amazing Race 12 Archive
TAR12 timeline speculation
puddin:
How about this and yes its speculation :angel: :treadmill
EP4: Africa~Africa ELIM 7 left
EP5: Africa~India TBC *monsoon*
EP6: India~India ELIM 6 left
EP7: India~Croatia ELIM 5 left
EP8: Croatia~Italy Elim 4 left
EP9: Italy~ Lithuania ELIM 3 left
EP10: Lithuania~ Japan ~ Taiwan TBC 3 left
EP11: Taiwan~ Alaska ~winner
apskip:
I have had some PM dialogue with Peach on the subject of whether a Africa to Vilnius to Florence to Dubrovnik routing or Africa to Florence to Vilnius to Dubrovnik routing can make sense. The answer to both questions is NO. Here's why for the first question. The same logic was worked out for the second case and it proved even less close on timing:
1. AF735 arrives CDG 610am July 17
2. First reasonable connection is at 800am on AF1340 to AMS, connecting there with TE461 to VNO arriving at 1325.
3. Teams then have all of afternoon and evening of July 17 in Vilnius to complete tasks.
4. Earliest possible departure would be at maybe 730am on July 18 to Florence. TE470 departs VNO 0735 to CDG, connecting to AF5036 arriving FLR 1405.
5. Teams have the rest of the afternoon and evening to do tasks in Florence. It doesn't matter whether it is a TBC or pitstop. They are not going to DBV until tasks are done. There is no way that the first group can arrive at 1405 and depart at 1725 even though with a TBC the second or third groups could indeed make it. The precise times are as shown in my master TIMELINE post. NOTE: the reason the first group has to depart by 1725 is that is the latest time they can connect through Milan and Zagreb arriving at 1030 on July 19, which corresponds well with actual observation of when they got to town
I have to conclude that there can be no Africa to Vilnius to Florence routing because there just isn't sufficient time. That means there will be an extended pit stop somewhere, I would guess Florence rather than Burkina Faso. I would also guess that the separation of teams has to occur somewhere and it won't be coming out of Africa with only one flight each 24 hours. The tasks in Florence have to involve major opportunities to get ahead and behind, like FAST FORWARD and UTURN and SPEED BUMP.
apskip:
puddin stated the following speculative route above:
EP4: Africa~Africa ELIM 7 left
EP5: Africa~India TBC *monsoon*
EP6: India~India ELIM 6 left
EP7: India~Croatia ELIM 5 left
EP8: Croatia~Italy Elim 4 left
EP9: Italy~ Lithuania ELIM 3 left
EP10: Lithuania~ Japan ~ Taiwan TBC 3 left
EP11: Taiwan~ Alaska ~winner
puddin, I know that speculation should not draw a lot of comment. However, I couldn't resist repeating my comments from the Ep. 4 thread, post #4:
"The optimum flights to Delhi India(gateway to Jaisalmer and a lot of other places in India) are via Paris-Charles-DeGaulle airport coming from West African places such as Ouagadougou or Niamey or several other West African capital cities because that is the way the air routes were set up. It makes no sense to fly to India and then return to Europe to catch Florence, Dubrovnik and Vilnius when you are right there in Europe for that connection.
I think people who are reading Elise Doganieri's statement Holland to India to Croatia literally are making a mistake."
Another reason that specualtive routing is not realistic is that it takes almost 2 days extra to fly to India and back to Europe and then go to Japan. AR12 just doesn't have that much slack time.
georgiapeach:
Many thanks to Apskip into looking into that. The main reason we are wobbling about how/when teams arrive in Dubrovnik is because of the personal information obtained by our source.
After getting to talk briefly with TK/Rachel, she understood them to say that the reason they were behind in Dubrovnik is that they had missed a flight connection by 5 minutes--the flight that the first 3 teams were on. And add in Azaria/Hendekea arriving at the cluebox so much later per Chateau time--and we are speculating on needing three flights. One for the first 3 arr before noonish, one arr early-mid afternoon and one arr later afternoon. That way we can explain the separation in time between the teams we see.
So per apskip's flight research, that can not happen by starting out from Lithuania, and he shows that there does not appear to be enough time to squeeze in Florence after Lithuania and before Dubrovnik.
So that being said, I'm going with this for now:
RED =puddin's previous summary BLUE= my additions
EP1: 11/4/07 LA-Ireland 11 teams to start -- Ari/Staella eliminated -- 10 teams left Dep LA July 8--arr Ireland 7/9-spend night --tasks/Pitstop7/10 dep 7/11 :yes:
EP2: 11/11/07 Ireland to The Netherlands 10 teams to start- Pat & Kate elim'ed--9 teams left dep Ireland 7/11, arr Amst 7/11 tasks+36 hour Pitstop:yes:
EP3: 11/18/07 Netherlands to Africa 9 teams to start --Sisters elim'ed --8 teams left Depart via CDG on Fri 7/13, arr Ouagadougou 5PM on 7/13, camp at/near train station overnight, do tasks Sat 7/14, Bingo pitstop- :yes:
EP4: 11/25/07 Africa to Africa 8 teams to start --1 elim -- 7 teams left Sun 7/15 tasks-- Pitstop
EP5: 12/2/07 Africa to Italy? 7 teams to start - 1 elim - 6 teams left --fly out Mon 7/16 and arr FLorence 7/17 Tues AM, tasks and Pitstop needs to be 36 hours,
EP6: 12/9/07 Italy to Croatia? 6 teams to start - 1 elim - 5 teams left dep Florence 7/19 arr 7/19 Dubrovnik *confirmed date*--teams seen doing tasks 7/19-- Pitstop
EP7: 12/23/07 Croatia to Lithuania? 5 teams to start -- 1 elim or TBC(?) --5 or 4 teams left
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
not addressing the rest of this yet:
EP8: 12/30/07 Lithuania to India? 5 or 4 teams to start --1 elim or TBC (?) 5 or 4 teams left
EP9: 1/6/08 India to Japan 4 teams to start --1 elim-- 3 teams left
EP10: 1/13/08 Japan to Taiwan --final 3 TBC
EP11: 1/20/08 Taiwan to Alaska Final 3 --winner
So we are putting a lot of faith in the keen eye of our source, but for now it appears to be our best guess. And that means only 6 teams in Dubrovnik, and excludes the possibility of a seventh.
So if she is also right about the F/F team, then we have our next 2 elims.
Unless TPTB throw a TBC in there somehow--in which case :pull I give up! :lol3:
puddin:
I think it would be funny if they did go to India after Africa :carryon:
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