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TAR12 timeline speculation
apskip:
My latest timeline revision(only slightly with the dates from Florence departure on):
1. 8th LAX to DUB EI144 1630 to 1030(July 9), July 9th DUB to SNN EI133 1145 to 1230 or EI125 1300 to 1345
BA278 LAX to LHR 1535 0945(July 9) EI375 1050 1210
2. 11 SNN to DUB EI132 0700 0745, conecting with either EI604 DUB AMS 0940 1215 or EI606 DUB AMS 1120 1355
3. 13 AMS to CDG many Air France choices: 8227 0645 0805; 8223 0725 0850; 8229 0800 0930;
CDG to OUA (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso) AF732 1100 to 1635
14 OUA to Bingo by rail; tasks and pitstop
15 REST DAY
4. 16 Bouda Pelegtanga to OUA by road.
5. OUA to CDG AF731 2130 0610 +1
17 CDG to AMS or FRA or PRG to VNO arrivals between 1325 and 1410
18 REST DAY
6. All of these flights are on July 19th
Top 3 teams used this route:
Vilnius Warsaw 0625 0650 LO774
Warsaw Vienna 0740 0905 LO223
Vienna Dubrovnik OS7059 1010 1120
The route that was altered by the late arrival in Prague for TK and Rachel was:
Vilnius Prague 0600 0635 OK871(note: actually 0720 arrival)
Prague Vienna OS704 0840 0945
Vienna Dubrovnik OS731 1315 1440 (Note: not valid per my sources, but OK per Austrian Airlines current schedule)
Don and Nic took:
OK871 0600 0635 VNO PRG (note: actually 0720 arrival)
OK818 1200 1335 PRG ZAG
OU662 1445 1540 ZAG DBV
Azaria/Hendekea probably got something like this through Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Zagreb:
TE460 0730 0905 VNO AMS
LH4673 1040 1150 AMS FRA
OU419 1430 1615 FRA DBV
7. 20 Teams took 4.5 hour buses from 0500 to 0800 to split, then the SNAV ferry at 1700 arriving 2140 to Ancona, then U-drive cars from Ancona at least 212 miles to Empoli(west of Florence).
Pitstop in florence, then extended 36 hour rest period
8. Choice of several flight possiblities from Florence to Mumbai:
23 0650 0855 AF5049 FLR CDG
1030 2350 AF134 CDG BOM
0655 0840 LH4067 FLR FRA
1135 2350 AI126 FRA BOM
0725 0925 KL3135 FLR AMS
1010 2350 NW34 AMS BOM
Mumbai tasks on the 24th, then 12 hour pitstop.
9. Most of the teams take:
24 TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
25 TG600 BKK HKG 0800 1145
CX564 HKG KIX 1310 1910
except for TK and Rachel, who I believe take this combination:
24 TG318 BOM BKK 2350 0530
25 TG630 BKK TPE 0725 1155
EG212 TPE KIX 1430 1750
25 tasks in Osaka start and finish next morning, then TBC
26 AM release from Osaka;
KIX TPE via any of these 3 flights:
EG211 1030 1245
CX565 1100 1315
BR2121 1235 1505
26 Taipei 101 sighting early afternoon on Friday, then 24 hour extended pitstop
28 TPE to ANC CI11 0245 0630 (July 28 after crossing the International Date Line)
FINISH LINE on July 29 in either GIRDWOOD or ANCHORAGE in 21 Days
NOTE: This version assumes that teams would not reach pitstop before 10pm(a good bet if they aren't arriving until 7pm). An alternate has themfinishing then and leaving Osaka after an extended 36 hour pitstop on July 27 on the above flights(see July 26 above), then having a normal 12 hour pitstop and a TBC after the TPE leg. I like this version better.
gingerman28:
Ep 9 travel dates should be 24 and 25 (not 23 and 24)
You have most teams arriving in Hong Kong at 1145 and leaving for Osaka at 1155. A ten minute connection is impossible. Do they lay over for 24 hours?
Same for Tk and Rachel. They arrive in Hong Kong at 1145 and leave for ICN at 0725. Another 20 hour layover?
apskip:
GMAN, you are absolutely right. I messed up some dates and I have had to change the flight number to a later one that gets into Osaka 5 minutes later than the one I originally showed.
It is kind of a shame to have my 1000th post this way, but keeping the Timeline as good as it can be is really important.
apskip:
I have had two knockout punches today relating to race timing, so please bear with me on this rambling. Let's start with the flight from Taipei to Anchorage. It was so simple, but it is appears that I reversed the order of the cities, because CI11 is the flight from ANC to TPE, not the reverse direction that we need. Next, my prime source is showing CI12 on SATURDAY July 28, but I do not believe it because it also showed x136, which is airline lingo means not on Monday, Wednesday or Saturday. Where does that leave us? It appears to leave us without a Saturday flight, forcing teams to fly to Anchorage on Sunday July 29 and then after arriving go straight to some difficult tasks in the Girdwood area that can only happen that day.
OK, so the second punch was CHATEAU's timing of a photo in the 4 to 5 pm range(he states it a little wider, but this is close enough for my purpose) in Osaka. Since teams cannot arrive that early on July 25, that means the photo must be July 26. The implication of that is that my theory of completing Osaka tasks by mid to late morning on the 26th is no longer valid, at least not for Donald and Nicolas. That puts the pitstop in the late afternoon.
Where does that leave us? If it's the TBC I expect then it won't be too bad. Teams can catch one of two flights to Taipei from Kansai International Airport(the main one for overseas):
NW69 1840 2050
EG217 1855 2110
However, if not a TBC then the pitstop will hold teams until morning of the 27th. At that point, there are no good options for flying from Kansai to Taipei. They will have to use an alternate airport, such as Itami. Here is a flight combination that would make sense:
ITM FUK JL2051 0740 0855
FUK TPE CX511 1025 1205
If teams have the TBC they will arrive Taipei evening of the 26th; if there is an elimination in Osaka they will arrive at noon on the 27th. Tasks will then carry them through the afternoon or evening. If there was a TBC then it's easy to see a 36 hour extended pitstop until the morning of July 29; if not then I have a potential problem because teams cannot lay over until the nonstop Taipei to Anchorage flight when if they have to do a TBC at Taipei. If it is non-elim then that problem goes away and they can also get the 36 hour extended pitstop.
The nonstop flight from TPE to ANC is on Sunday July 29, CI12 leaving at 1625 and arriving same day July 29 in Anchorage at 750am due to the wonders of the International Date Line.
puddin:
Phil tells us that there is one more NonElim and I can't see that happening in the final 3 as in EP10/11 so it must come this week EP9. We can't have a TBC Osaka to Taiwan or a TBC Taiwan to Alaska if someone is to be eliminated then it has to be EP10 to give us our final 3.
*just rambling*
July 26th Osaka NEL
July 27th Taiwan Elim, speed bump? down to the final 3
Jully 29th Taiwan to Alaska final 3 =winner
Also after all the BS that BVM has reported do we still believe the race completes in 21 days?
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