Actually the Paolos were saved by the Rogers. Rogers got to Middleburg, VA first, started the Battlefield challenge and then changed to the oil challenge after only carrying one poor wounded Rebel. So they put themselves behind by going over and starting all over again with the oil.
So maybe, just maybe, the spoiler leaked by the Blacks in their post-race interview is on the right track. The Blacks said that the bonded best with the Rogers and Aiellos. Probably at the sequestered losers villa since otherwise they would not have much time to bond over the one night camping out in the rain in Philadelphia. So does that mean that Tony and his three son-in-laws are next? CBS promo has the Aiellos spinning their wheels in the mud, but this may be typical CBS Misdirection.