Author Topic: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!  (Read 790390 times)

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Offline PikaBelleChu

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #650 on: October 09, 2017, 06:51:56 PM »
If St. Tropez is Leg 4, then I think this is elimination. so my suggestion is:

Reykjavik is definitely an elimination leg, since Kayla and Dessie have not seen after Leg 1.

Antwerp could be elimination too. so that's why Yoga moms not seen after sightings in Leg 4.

Tangier might have been non-elimination.

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #651 on: October 09, 2017, 06:53:55 PM »
https://www.instagram.com/p/BaBw3gEDnNN/

My French is rusty (non-existent, actually), but I take it the greeter is named Sasha?

Yes she is a Model with that company.

here is her Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/sasha/
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Offline Winteriscoming

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #652 on: October 09, 2017, 06:55:42 PM »
I know we can jump to conclusions. But we saw jody violinetnist and yale together in past legs. I know the race can change the order at any moment, but if they all managed to stick with eachother, there is a reason we havent seen all 3 of them at all during this leg. Id say 75% they finished before these other teams were sighted or 25% they fell behind.

the new sighting of the bball players having the speedbump just prooves more that they were probably in the lower half of the teams checking into the pitstop. Teams with speedbumps usually are at the disadvantage

Teams are never bunched together for the majority of he race. Even for a few legs. We saw them for a 5 second photo

I think bunched together or grouped together is the wrong word here..  Those three teams were seen close together toward the later stages of the last leg of the race in Morroco and we have seen nothing of them in France so it makes sense for people to speculate espically after finding out that Morocco was a non elimination leg where the basketball players got last.

I doubt they are grouped together still but if they were the first 3 teams to get to France and do the tasks and get to the pit stop before people with their cameras started catching on and snapping photos to their instagram than that could be why we haven't seen them.

Or maybe they were the last 3 teams, or maybe it is unrelated and we haven't seen them because there are just no photos of them that people took.

The basketball players are the most likely to be recognized in France so it makes sense we have seen the most of them.

Hopefully the next leg of the race we will get some more photos of all the teams still left in the game, but as for now all we have is speculation based off the info we are given.

Offline dangambler

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #653 on: October 09, 2017, 07:05:51 PM »
just catching up but sounds like I was right about the group in the picture in Tangier of Jody. debaters, twins and violinists being the first group was correct and the other teams were behind. Id guess Jody and other teams got an earlier flight to France and probably why we haven't seen them...

if nba was last in Tangier id say the teams around them in France were at risk of likely being eliminated
« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 07:15:05 PM by dangambler »

Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #654 on: October 09, 2017, 07:10:11 PM »


if nba was last in Tangier id say the teams around them in France were at risk of likely being eliminated

That makes no sense. He could just as well be in first place. You CANNOT know from the info we have.
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Offline dangambler

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #655 on: October 09, 2017, 07:14:22 PM »


if nba was last in Tangier id say the teams around them in France were at risk of likely being eliminated

That makes no sense. He could just as well be in first place. You CANNOT know from the info we have.

no sense?

ok lets go slow..

1. they were obviously last in Tangier, meaning they'd start behind other teams, possibly a later flight.
2. they had to do a speed bump
3. add the two together and you get the likelihood they were still in the back of the pack.

Offline PikaBelleChu

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #656 on: October 09, 2017, 07:25:28 PM »
the route destination of TARUS30 looks more like a combination of S6 and S12 because of the continents they've visited. I think that Tangier is only one leg. if there's an extra task, they could've worked it between Tangier and St. Tropez just like Zimbabwe and France in S26. The other African leg must be somewhere after going to Europe twice.

If not, with Morocco to be 2 legs,  like Burkina Faso in S12.  my speculation is that there's a slight chance that after France there's gonna be a new country right now.

Offline DavidJunior

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #657 on: October 09, 2017, 07:26:41 PM »


if nba was last in Tangier id say the teams around them in France were at risk of likely being eliminated

That makes no sense. He could just as well be in first place. You CANNOT know from the info we have.

no sense?

ok lets go slow..

1. they were obviously last in Tangier, meaning they'd start behind other teams, possibly a later flight.
2. they had to do a speed bump
3. add the two together and you get the likelihood they were still in the back of the pack.

I think the issue you’re running into bud, is the fact you’re wording things as if they are concrete fact

That’s already kinda backfired with the amount of teams in Tangier

We do not know WHEN teams were released for Leg 4, so we don’t know if they got bunched at any airport or even with an HoO when arriving in St. Tropez

It seems that the basketballers were seen at CDG with the medics, so that puts them at least on par with one of the ‘earlier’ teams from that photo in Tangier

We also don’t know how well/poor they or really anyone did at any of the tasks- just that they arrived at roughly the same time as the lifeguards
« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 07:36:32 PM by DavidJunior »

Offline Marionete

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #658 on: October 09, 2017, 07:29:01 PM »
Dan, what you're saying is not out of the realm of possibility, but it does in no way confirm amything.

All of the teams could have been on the same flight to France for all we know.
Some teams might have been delayed if on a different flight.
There is no way to tell what really happened.

Offline Winteriscoming

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #659 on: October 09, 2017, 07:35:49 PM »
Yep it is all speculation there is no way to know..

However, The basketball players being last in Morocco and having to do a speed bump here in France means the odds of them being in the second half of the pack are higher than them being towards the top .



Offline Malvear867

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #660 on: October 09, 2017, 07:36:31 PM »
I agree ^^^^^

Offline fossil-racer

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #661 on: October 09, 2017, 07:57:03 PM »
Here's what we can agree on (based on given info right now):

Ring Girls were knocked out of the race in Leg 1.

Yoga moms didn't stretch out their potential and were most likely eliminated in Leg 2.

NBA hit a non-elimination in Leg 3 (Morocco).

Leg 4 (France) most likely had nine teams racing. 3 ( Debaters, Jody, Violinists) weren't sighted but they should be racing in this leg due to being sighted in Morocco and the leg 3 was a non-elim. Twins, Lifeguards, Eaters and NBA were spotted at the pitstop for this leg. Indy 500 and Skiers were spotted during this leg but not spotted at the pitstop.

Don't overthink guys!
Unearthing Prehistoric Spoilers since TAR Canada 2
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Offline dangambler

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #662 on: October 09, 2017, 08:13:47 PM »
Yep it is all speculation there is no way to know..

However, The basketball players being last in Morocco and having to do a speed bump here in France means the odds of them being in the second half of the pack are higher than them being towards the top .

exactly, and I've never claimed anything is fact, rather logical based on what we know

Offline dangambler

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #663 on: October 09, 2017, 08:15:48 PM »
where did I say anything is a fact? Ive always said its speculation based on logic and some evidence we do have. Again the NBA team being last in tangier goes to show that the group of 4 in tangier was very likely the first teams to finish that pit stop
« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 11:28:33 AM by georgiapeach »

Offline ChiTown

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #664 on: October 09, 2017, 08:17:29 PM »


if nba was last in Tangier id say the teams around them in France were at risk of likely being eliminated

That makes no sense. He could just as well be in first place. You CANNOT know from the info we have.

no sense?

ok lets go slow..

1. they were obviously last in Tangier, meaning they'd start behind other teams, possibly a later flight.
2. they had to do a speed bump
3. add the two together and you get the likelihood they were still in the back of the pack.

People have come in first place after a speed bump. That really doesn't mean anything. And if could've been where they all had to take a time slot and could only be 5-10 minutes apart. There are so many different scenarios. Would not assume anyone was front or back of the pack

Offline ChiTown

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #665 on: October 09, 2017, 08:21:00 PM »


if nba was last in Tangier id say the teams around them in France were at risk of likely being eliminated

That makes no sense. He could just as well be in first place. You CANNOT know from the info we have.

no sense?

ok lets go slow..

1. they were obviously last in Tangier, meaning they'd start behind other teams, possibly a later flight.
2. they had to do a speed bump
3. add the two together and you get the likelihood they were still in the back of the pack.

People have come in first place after a speed bump. That really doesn't mean anything. And if could've been where they all picked a time and were only 10 minutes apart. There are so many different scenarios. Would not assume anyone was front or back of the pack

you can assume what you like, id rather make educated guesses based on the relevant info we have. to each their own

So yours is only an educated guess? Mine is based off of what happened in previous seasons. Therefore also a educated guess based on relevant information

Offline ChiTown

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #666 on: October 09, 2017, 08:27:25 PM »
If you guys want some amazing race trivia. 25 teams have survived elimination after a speed bump and only 17 were eliminated. The odds are in our favor! Go nba!

Offline WindsorSue

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #667 on: October 09, 2017, 08:29:50 PM »
Here's what we can agree on (based on given info right now):

Ring Girls were knocked out of the race in Leg 1.

Yoga moms didn't stretch out their potential and were most likely eliminated in Leg 2.

NBA hit a non-elimination in Leg 3 (Morocco).

Leg 4 (France) most likely had nine teams racing. 3 ( Debaters, Jody, Violinists) weren't sighted but they should be racing in this leg due to being sighted in Morocco and the leg 3 was a non-elim. Twins, Lifeguards, Eaters and NBA were spotted at the pitstop for this leg. Indy 500 and Skiers were spotted during this leg but not spotted at the pitstop.

Don't overthink guys!

^^^ THIS ^^^
Let's all calm down and wait to see what happens on the next leg. Patience!!!!

Offline Winteriscoming

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #668 on: October 09, 2017, 08:45:24 PM »
If you guys want some amazing race trivia. 25 teams have survived elimination after a speed bump and only 17 were eliminated. The odds are in our favor! Go nba!

the NBA team would be out of the race in 9th place losing to professional eaters,  two female skiers and 90 pound jessica had they not been saved by production with a non elimination leg so not really sure that is rooting on.  They just got lucky the Yoga moms and Ring girls didn't.

However,  it does look like they rebounded and were at least able to survive the speedbump and stay out of last place in France.. What place they got remains to be seen.

I do know twice in history a team has gone from last to first but never with this many teams left. 

I also did some research and trivia..  and only 11 times has a team in last gone onto the next leg with a speedbump and jumped more than 3 places.  41 times they have not.

Which means there is like an 80% chance based off history that the basketball players were more towards the mid/bottom of the pack.

« Last Edit: October 09, 2017, 09:12:50 PM by Winteriscoming »

Offline Maanca

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #669 on: October 09, 2017, 08:52:17 PM »
Well, anyway, the next leg should most likely take place tomorrow. See what kind of sightings come out of it and hopefully they help provide us more insight.


Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #670 on: October 09, 2017, 09:46:06 PM »
Yep it is all speculation there is no way to know..

However, The basketball players being last in Morocco and having to do a speed bump here in France means the odds of them being in the second half of the pack are higher than them being towards the top .

exactly, and I've never claimed anything is fact, rather logical based on what we know

Okay, we are done with this discussion. We don't know, YOU don't know, So let's find another avenue to discuss.
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Offline walkingpneumonia

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #671 on: October 10, 2017, 10:02:54 AM »
Please end this discussion right here. Period. It is not suitable for this topic.

Otherwise I SPECULATE that there will be a rapid deletion of some posts...

NEL are preplanned. Not for who comes last, but for which Leg of the race it is.

The Speedbump would already need to be planned in advance for the next leg. I doubt they would spend all that extra money to have a Speedbump set up for each leg of the race just so that they can decide when they are actually going to need to use it so that they can save their favorite team.

NEL are preplanned. Not for who comes last, but for which Leg of the race it is.

The Speedbump would already need to be planned in advance for the next leg. I doubt they would spend all that extra money to have a Speedbump set up for each leg of the race just so that they can decide when they are actually going to need to use it so that they can save their favorite team.

I don't believe that sorry and haven't since season 16 where Jeff/Jordan and the Cowboys both got NEL..

or when they saved brendon and rachel from going home 4th on allstars..

Too sketchy for me but again this is for a different thread.
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Offline georgiapeach

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #672 on: October 10, 2017, 11:07:09 AM »
Y'all can discuss PAST seasons in those Discussion threads.

Wishlists and "Unsupported" Speculation also has a thread.

This thread is SOLELY for DISCUSSION of TAR 30 SPOILERS.

We have a wishlist thread for routes and locations.

Housecleaning.

 :chores
« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 11:30:43 AM by georgiapeach »
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Offline WindsorSue

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #673 on: October 10, 2017, 12:57:38 PM »
This thread is specifically for working out what we see from sightings. When the convo veers off topic, it makes it difficult for us investigators to do things.  :spy: She's just asking for us to use the appropriate thread. Don't take it personally, it happens every season! And she is going to give me heck now for replying to u in this thread.  :angel

Offline AfreekNSheets

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Re: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!
« Reply #674 on: October 10, 2017, 01:35:43 PM »
off topic
« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 01:43:26 PM by georgiapeach »