Topic: TAR 30: Speculation and Discussion of the **SPOILERS** WORKZONE!

[ianthebalance]

FYI, the 12 shows in 21 days that Phil says is actually is BS, it's usually 22-24 days

[Marionete]

Yup. I really don't see enough time for them to have sneaked a leg in there. Plus the race isn't going too slow, we're only a week in and 4 legs have been finished. The pace will be even faster when we have 2 legs in the same country.

[DavidJunior]

Facebook post of Shawn Marion in the Paris Airport yesterday. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1705989989413848&set=a.1200659149946937.1073741828.100000085898685&type=3&theater

Thanks! Interesting transfer via CDG....

I could see it- it did have a fair amount of flights arriving at CDG from Tangier, and Marseille had A TON of flights from CDG arriving today

[BourkieBoy]

Well, there goes the route of underused countries!

[TARUSAFan]

Well, there goes the route of underused countries!

Look on the bright side Bourkie, maybe it is just 1 out of the 11 legs that is overused. At least it is a new part of France.

[thebasketmakerswife]

The NBA guys are on the left and the Yellow team on right checking in at Pit Stop together. Phil in front of cameraman and there's the "welcome" lady next to him in front of the mat. Wish I could post larger photo but won't let me. See brunoveronefrance on insta - larger photo.

[Calibound2]

Possible twin sighting on the mat with Phil in Saint Tropez. It hard to tell for me but if it is one of the twins he is on the left of the picture.  https://twitter.com/JessicaCodyBB19/status/917258537167998977


New at this so if I'm not posting in the correct spot please help me out. Thanks in advance!

Alright so assuming this is Leg 4 or 5,

The only teams not spotted at the Amsterdam Train station at the start of Leg 2 (Ring Girls)

The only teams that havnt been spotted since then are Yoga Moms and Skiers

If there have been no non eiminations so far and the pictures we saw in Morocco WERE Leg 3. That’s the only chance Either the Yoga Moms or Skiers are still in it. It can’t be both because we have spotted 8 of the teams either in Morocco or France. It would have to Been one  or the other.

If the pictures we saw in Morocco WERE Leg 4 and the whole 8 teams spotted doing the roadblock thing checks out (unless that was a non elimination leg) teams at risk of not making it to France are..



Jody
Violinists
Debaters
Eaters

(If there have been no NEL and Morocco was Leg 3.. theres a possibility Skiers OR Yoga Moms could take the spot of one of the 4 teams above)
—�—�—�-

The teams that made it to France are :

Twins
Basketball
Lifeguards
Indy

[georgiapeach]

The NBA guys are on the left and the Yellow team on right checking in at Pit Stop together. Phil in front of cameraman and there's the "welcome" lady next to him in front of the mat. Wish I could post larger photo but won't let me. See brunoveronefrance on insta - larger photo.

You can see the larger photo in the LIVE thread here  : http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,33374.msg1207545.html#msg1207545

[ovalorange]

My two cents is that Saint-Tropez is only Leg 4. This race has for all recent seasons run on a 21 day schedule, with a leg being filmed over a course of two days (one for travel, one for running the actual leg). The only time I've seen a difference is when they stay in the country and don't need a whole travel day. Looking at the timeline we have, there doesn't appear to be time a mystery leg would have been thrown in, with them being sighted in a city every other day: Reykjavik (Oct. 2), Antwerp (Oct. 4), Tangier (Oct. 6), Saint-Tropez (Oct. . I could be wrong here and they somehow did sneak something in there, but I don't buy it.

I think this is the biggest indicator of Saint Tropez being leg 4. I can't find anywhere to logically fit in a whole leg + pitstop, even without any additional flights/travel. Is the ONLY reason we're thinking we're missing a leg the 8 teams in Tangier deal?

[dangambler]

Ok, haven't seen this posted but I'll share this speculation..

the eaters were eliminated in Tangier.

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally. The gentleman who took pictures and watched said he only saw 8 teams and there were only 8 blue gnome holders so 3 teams had been eliminated.. (ring, yoga and skiers I believe).

He also said that group of 4 (Jody,twins,debaters,violinists) were the first 4 teams, and that they made their way to where he was from the docks where we saw the teams as well. So the pit stop I believe was nearby.

So, how does this factor into the eaters being eliminated?

In France we have seen NBA, lifeguards, and Indy only. 3 of the last 4 teams in Tangier. Leaving out the eaters. So, I think it makes a lot of sense they would've been eliminated in Tangier.

Why haven't we seen the other 4 teams? My thinking is two fold, 1. they may have likely been on an earlier flight than NBA, Indy and lifeguards. 2. NBA team is very noticeable as 6'10 black dudes and so the teams arriving around the same time as them are also seen as well.

Also.. for those questioning timeline... realize we still have 2 likely non elimination legs as well as long flights ahead. I think from France they head to either Australia or Asia which will be long extended flights.

[freds]

Tomorrow will be a strike day in France. 30% of the flights are cancelled.

[ovalorange]

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally.

I literally do not see anything to support this. The flight from AMS landed at 8PM on 10/05. We have sightings of teams at the fish dock in the AM (~7AM) on 10/06. You're telling me they ran two legs and had a pitstop in the space of less than 12 hours?

A KOR I would consider but then that would leave us with 9 teams and not 8 on your proposed leg 4.

I'm not gonna even continue with the rest of those wild speculations.

[dangambler]

Tomorrow will be a strike day in France. 30% of the flights are cancelled.

they won't be there by tomorrow... likely leave today

[dangambler]

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally.

I literally do not see anything to support this. The flight from AMS landed at 8PM on 10/05. We have sightings of teams at the fish dock in the AM (~7AM) on 10/06. You're telling me they ran two legs and had a pitstop in the space of less than 12 hours?

A KOR I would consider but then that would leave us with 9 teams and not 8 on your proposed leg 4.

I'm not gonna even continue with the rest of those wild speculations.

wild speculations? I presented reasoning and logic to backup everything

[WindsorSue]

My two cents is that Saint-Tropez is only Leg 4. This race has for all recent seasons run on a 21 day schedule, with a leg being filmed over a course of two days (one for travel, one for running the actual leg). The only time I've seen a difference is when they stay in the country and don't need a whole travel day. Looking at the timeline we have, there doesn't appear to be time a mystery leg would have been thrown in, with them being sighted in a city every other day: Reykjavik (Oct. 2), Antwerp (Oct. 4), Tangier (Oct. 6), Saint-Tropez (Oct. . I could be wrong here and they somehow did sneak something in there, but I don't buy it.

I think this is the biggest indicator of Saint Tropez being leg 4. I can't find anywhere to logically fit in a whole leg + pitstop, even without any additional flights/travel. Is the ONLY reason we're thinking we're missing a leg the 8 teams in Tangier deal?

Yes. So, if NOT a missing leg, and there were only 8 gnome holders, then what are we left with? An injury/illness/emergency or a FF in play?

[ovalorange]

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally.

I literally do not see anything to support this. The flight from AMS landed at 8PM on 10/05. We have sightings of teams at the fish dock in the AM (~7AM) on 10/06. You're telling me they ran two legs and had a pitstop in the space of less than 12 hours?

A KOR I would consider but then that would leave us with 9 teams and not 8 on your proposed leg 4.

I'm not gonna even continue with the rest of those wild speculations.

wild speculations? I presented reasoning and logic to backup everything

Maybe I'm not understanding correctly, so help me out.

If we're adamant that there's exactly 8 teams left for our spoiled leg in Tangier, then why did we/do we not know exactly who all 8 teams are? Wouldn't one of the first questions to the sighter be to find out who the rest of the teams are? I mean we have a ton of photos from the start for all 11 teams to help him ID who he saw. Why did our team spend a lot of today looking at grainy pics in Saint-Tropez trying to decipher which other teams are still in it if the Tangier sighter that you spoke to knew who was still in?

I don't want you to take this as a personal attack, I just question every bit of info we get. Something with this 8 teams in Tangier is conflicting with our timelines and it isn't sitting right with me.

[Marionete]

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally.

I literally do not see anything to support this. The flight from AMS landed at 8PM on 10/05. We have sightings of teams at the fish dock in the AM (~7AM) on 10/06. You're telling me they ran two legs and had a pitstop in the space of less than 12 hours?

A KOR I would consider but then that would leave us with 9 teams and not 8 on your proposed leg 4.

I'm not gonna even continue with the rest of those wild speculations.

I just wanna repost this for emphasis in every single page of every single thread.

dangambler, you're not making unsupported speculation, but neither is oval. And with that, we have to look at which reasoning makes more sense.
The information about there only being a 12 hour gap between Amsterdam and Tangier is fact. And it makes it impossible to squeeze 2 legs in there imo.
So there was either a Fast Forward in Tangier, following which a gnome stand was removed, or simply the person who made the claim about only 8 teams/8 gnomes being there was wrong. I sure hope it's not an emergency exit by a team though.

That's my thinking.

[ovalorange]

Sue, dunno can't be sure. But with a FF production would have to assume no one might go for it, or even go for it and later bail for the regular course.

I wonder if we consider someone way behind... then would match with sighter only seeing 8 teams?

Does anyone remember what production did in TAR 11/12/23/other seasons when teams screwed up their flights so bad they couldn't even run the leg? Wonder if they'd just set up for 8 teams and cut the team before they even start a leg... has that ever been a thing? I sense this is heading into wild spec territory too, but it is driving me bonkers because I'm not seeing a logical explanation.

[DavidJunior]

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally.

I literally do not see anything to support this. The flight from AMS landed at 8PM on 10/05. We have sightings of teams at the fish dock in the AM (~7AM) on 10/06. You're telling me they ran two legs and had a pitstop in the space of less than 12 hours?

A KOR I would consider but then that would leave us with 9 teams and not 8 on your proposed leg 4.

I'm not gonna even continue with the rest of those wild speculations.

wild speculations? I presented reasoning and logic to backup everything

Here is why they are wild:

The guy saw the 4 teams for literal seconds as they passed by- they may have been at the front at the time, but we DON’T KNOW where they were in their process of completing the Roadblock, or even how well they were doing at it

We also DON’T KNOW the location of the pit stop- could be close by, or in another location/city, which could cause shifts in order placement if some teams were to get lost

Also, we DON’T KNOW whether or not Tangier was an elimination leg or not

We DON’T KNOW with 100% certainty whether Tangier was leg 3 or 4, but many find it unlikely that they were able to squeeze a leg in that short of a window and lean toward leg 3

We have also yet to see the violinists, Jody, or the debaters in France, so we DON’T KNOW if they’re safe or not either

Just because a team was in a good position at one point in a leg, does not mean they did good for the whole rest of it- the only way to know that for certain is to see them check in at the pit stop and to know the order they arrived

We’ve seen things turn terribly for teams between the final task and the pit stop before, so we really can’t assume anything now

[dangambler]

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally.

I literally do not see anything to support this. The flight from AMS landed at 8PM on 10/05. We have sightings of teams at the fish dock in the AM (~7AM) on 10/06. You're telling me they ran two legs and had a pitstop in the space of less than 12 hours?

A KOR I would consider but then that would leave us with 9 teams and not 8 on your proposed leg 4.

I'm not gonna even continue with the rest of those wild speculations.

wild speculations? I presented reasoning and logic to backup everything

Maybe I'm not understanding correctly, so help me out.

If we're adamant that there's exactly 8 teams left for our spoiled leg in Tangier, then why did we/do we not know exactly who all 8 teams are? Wouldn't one of the first questions to the sighter be to find out who the rest of the teams are? I mean we have a ton of photos from the start for all 11 teams to help him ID who he saw. Why did our team spend a lot of today looking at grainy pics in Saint-Tropez trying to decipher which other teams are still in it if the Tangier sighter that you spoke to knew who was still in?

I don't want you to take this as a personal attack, I just question every bit of info we get. Something with this 8 teams in Tangier is conflicting with our timelines and it isn't sitting right with me.

well I frankly only cared about where Jess and Cody were in the race and once he said those were the first 4, and they came to where he was from the docks, I didn't follow up to ask about the other 4... but when I saw the pic of the 8 blue things I assumed it was 8 teams, and then he said he saw 8 teams so I took that as confirmation.

[dangambler]

Thought process....

Ok, Tangier was leg 4. Logically I think they had 2 legs in Tangier. 1 that finished in Tangier after a flight from Amsterdam, and then the next day locally.

I literally do not see anything to support this. The flight from AMS landed at 8PM on 10/05. We have sightings of teams at the fish dock in the AM (~7AM) on 10/06. You're telling me they ran two legs and had a pitstop in the space of less than 12 hours?

A KOR I would consider but then that would leave us with 9 teams and not 8 on your proposed leg 4.

I'm not gonna even continue with the rest of those wild speculations.

wild speculations? I presented reasoning and logic to backup everything

Here is why they are wild:

The guy saw the 4 teams for literal seconds as they passed by- they may have been at the front at the time, but we DON’T KNOW where they were in their process of completing the Roadblock, or even how well they were doing at it

We also DON’T KNOW the location of the pit stop- could be close by, or in another location/city, which could cause shifts in order placement if some teams were to get lost

Also, we DON’T KNOW whether or not Tangier was an elimination leg or not

We DON’T KNOW with 100% certainty whether Tangier was leg 3 or 4, but many find it unlikely that they were able to squeeze a leg in that short of a window and lean toward leg 3

We have also yet to see the violinists, Jody, or the debaters in France, so we DON’T KNOW if they’re safe or not either

Just because a team was in a good position at one point in a leg, does not mean they did good for the whole rest of it- the only way to know that for certain is to see them check in at the pit stop and to know the order they arrived

We’ve seen things turn terribly for teams between the final task and the pit stop before, so we really can’t assume anything now

he saw 8 teams.

[Marionete]

dangambler, do you still remember the source of the 8 team sighting?
I did a little search and can't find who it originated from, but I think it would be best to try and contact them, asking to identify the teams he saw.

Sue, dunno can't be sure. But with a FF production would have to assume no one might go for it, or even go for it and later bail for the regular course.

I'm thinking about that as well, and it is unlikely for production to take a gnome out even if a team has already won the FF and are on their way to PS. But at the end of the day, I'm not buying the additional secret leg speculation, so therefore am considerng everything else.

Also think about it, we have had sighting in every single country so far. They haven't gone compeltely unnoticed, because so many people are searching for sightings all other the web this year. Why do we suddenly believe in the unknown just based on 1 little piece of information?

[dangambler]

dangambler, do you still remember the source of the 8 team sighting?
I did a little search and can't find who it originated from, but I think it would be best to try and contact them, asking to identify the teams he saw.

Sue, dunno can't be sure. But with a FF production would have to assume no one might go for it, or even go for it and later bail for the regular course.

I'm thinking about that as well, and it is unlikely for production to take a gnome out even if a team has already won the FF and are on their way to PS. But at the end of the day, I'm not buying the additional secret leg speculation, so therefore am considerng everything else.

Also think about it, we have had sighting in every single country so far. They haven't gone compeltely unnoticed, because so many people are searching for sightings all other the web this year. Why do we suddenly believe in the unknown just based on 1 little piece of information?

some guy on Facebook... I asked him some other questions but he never responded again

[ovalorange]

It is possible there were more than 8 blue structures but only 8 seen in the picture, there is room on the right side IMO.

Also need to consider this from G~Ann earlier today, but i think this whole 8 team in Tangier thing is worth another good look at.

Can someone also link me to where we figured the gnomes were standing on the blue things (PM is fine)? Can't find it anywhere and honestly, I would have thought its a bit dangerous to have the gnomes balancing on those things right on the terrace ledge. Odd.

[dangambler]

It is possible there were more than 8 blue structures but only 8 seen in the picture, there is room on the right side IMO.

Also need to consider this from G~Ann earlier today, but i think this whole 8 team in Tangier thing is worth another good look at.

Can someone also link me to where we figured the gnomes were standing on the blue things (PM is fine)? Can't find it anywhere and honestly, I would have thought its a bit dangerous to have the gnomes balancing on those things right on the terrace ledge. Odd.

I don't know if that is what they were... never understood why people assumed that, but he did take a picture of them so I assumed they were significant in some way.

And I think this guy had either his home or business that was in that alley looking down upon where they were based on his description, and to repeat again, he said jody, debaters, violinists, and twins were the first 4 he saw... and he saw 8 total