Glorious episode!
I'm really glad Luke is gone, because I didn't want him to win at all, and he was kind of annoying to me, although a big character.
I really think Peter has a 0% chance of winning this game. I say this mostly based on the edit.
Tara winning would feel very Kristie-esque, but she has a pretty good resume.
Locky will be gone the second he loses immunity I think. Probably next episode. Although it would be cool to see him win - he's the comp beast who's also got the strategic chops and isn't arrogant.
Ziggy will also not win. The edit has really emphasised it, but she's screwed up several times strategically, and the jury will not care if immunity wins are the only things on her resume. Plus I see her getting voted out 5th/4th.
Jericho would be an OK winner in my book. He'd certainly be more worthy than Kristie, but I'd feel underwhelmed. He has a shot though.
And Michelle.... She's still my winner pick at this point.
Stars have alligned quite perfectly for her - she's got a F2 deal with Peter, so they're solid; Jericho will try to clinge onto her now that Luke's gone; Tara will try to get for Lochy's vote out, and Lochy will need her as a number whoever he wants to gun for (based on the preview, likely to be Tara).
So yeah, I'm predicting a Michelle/Tara/Jericho F3, where I think Michelle would win 6-0-3 or 7-0-2.
If it's a F2 though, and Michelle's not there, Jericho might win in a pretty close vote of 6-4. But I don't see Michelle not making it to the FTC tbh.
So yeah, that's my breakdown, which for some reason I felt like doing.