Author Topic: TAR Canada 5 Team Averages **Contains Current Spoilers**  (Read 754 times)

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Offline CanadianOwl

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TAR Canada 5 Team Averages **Contains Current Spoilers**
« on: July 12, 2017, 03:39:19 PM »
So peach suggested I should make a thread about team averages in TAR Canada 5, so this is the thread to do so!

Now I'm doing something similar on the r/TheAmazingRace, so if you go on both, you'll see similarities.

Obviously, this will contain spoilers from aired episodes, so don't read this if you haven't watched all episodes aired and plan to do so.

Key
*Last on NEL
**Took Penalty
Switched Detours (# ∆ is the number of times they switched)
εUsed Express Pass
εUnused Express Pass
Used Fast Forward
U-Turned a Team
Team was U-Turned
~Last in Face-Off

After Leg 2

Standings (by Average)
Team  Current Average  Current Position  Other Positions
Kenneth & Ryan
3.00
5
1
Sam & Paul
3.50
3
4
Andrea & Ebonie
4.50
2
7**
Megan & Courtney
5.00
1
9
Karen & Bert
5.00
4
6
Adam & Andrea
5.00
7
3
Korey & Ivana
5.00
8
2
Zed & Shabbir
5.50
6
5
Eliminated Teams
Dan & Riya
8.50
9
8
Aaron & Deb
10.00
10
N/A

In the case of tie-breaks, like this one where four teams are tied with the average of 5, I'll use their current positions.

Kenneth & Ryan and Sam & Paul seem to be the top teams in the race, but not by much. However, K&R do have 2 EPs that could help them in the long run (one for using, one for bribing).

The rest of the non-eliminated are within the range of 1 in terms of their averages, suggesting that there was a lot of placement swapping in the second leg of the race, and even K&R's average was knocked down by a math challenge, showing that the top dogs are not dominant teams.

Karen & Bert's EP means that they have the edge over that range of people, and can push them past the goofy mistakes they might make along the way, highlighted by being in last early in Leg 1 and clogging the pump in Leg 2.

Zed & Shabbir's consistent pace of being a mid-tier team makes them look like a team that can sneak into the final leg by just not being eliminated.

Surprisingly, despite the penalty Andrea & Ebonie took in Leg 1, they still have the third best average so far (not by much). Maybe that penalty is just a bump in the road for a long run in the race.

Megan & Courtney's position in that four-way tie despite being 9th on the first leg shows that it wasn't their lack of skill that got them almost eliminated, but the fact that they were the only team to switch detours.

Sam & Paul are the only team that's been in the top 4 both legs, so they might be the most consistent top team. They might win some legs and make the finale.

Overall, the teams still in the race are the ones that should still be in the race. It's anyone's game, and any team can be eliminated with a big mistake.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2017, 08:58:26 PM by CanadianOwl »

Offline CanadianOwl

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Re: TAR Canada 5 Team Averages
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2017, 01:08:20 AM »
After Leg 3

Standings (by Average)
Team  Current Average  Current Position  Other Positions
Sam & Paul
3.67
4
4, 3
Zed & Shabbir
4.00
1
5, 6
Korey & Ivana
4.00
2
2, 8
Kenneth & Ryan
4.00
6ε
1, 5
Adam & Andrea
4.33
3
3, 7
Karen & Bert
5.00
5ε
6, 4
Andrea & Ebonie
5.33
7
7**, 2
Eliminated Teams
Megan & Courtney
6.00
8∆∆ε
9, 1
Dan & Riya
8.50
9
8
Aaron & Deb
10.00
10
N/A

The top 5 in averages are within 2/3rds of each other, which is pretty interesting.

Sam & Paul, the team with the invisible edit, is actually the strongest and most consistent team on the race. Top 4 on each leg, and they can get to the finale. However, they haven't won a leg yet (or even be 2nd), which could be the "story" later in the race.

Korey & Ivana, Zed & Shabbir, and Adam & Andrea improved their perfomances from the previous leg and make up the top 3. Zed & Shabbir made few mistakes throughout the leg and earned 1st, and that is something that will keep them in the race, even if Shabbir is not as fast as the others. Korey & Ivana still have navigation problems, but dominate the tasks, which got them 2nd. Adam & Andrea didn't have much problems during the leg, and easily get 3rd.

Karen & Bert had a Karen & Bert type of day. They end up last early, but skip the task that uses their weakest skill the most with their express pass. They were one of two teams to complete the Hook detour, and stayed in the race because of that boost from the express pass, even if they ended up 5th. They are the team that stumbles throughout the race and somehow ends up in their placement spot.

Kenneth & Ryan's "dubious" decision to give the express pass to Megan & Courtney early pays off in the end. They managed to get help from them in the tent task, and M&C are eliminated with the express pass, so that threat is gone. They use their own express pass to avoid elimination after getting stumped in the Hook detour, and win the three-team footrace. Unfortunately, this means that they drop to 4th on the averages standings, and will need to improve to last in the race.

Andrea & Ebonie stayed in the race by M&C's decision to not use the express pass, and end up in the bottom of the averages standings. They could improve in the next leg of the race, and by looking at the standings, it's still anyone's race.

Megan & Courtney fall into the exclusive club of being eliminated with an express pass. But it wasn't just that decision that cost them, but it was also their decision to switch detours twice. It almost cost them in the first leg, and it cost them here. Had they stayed with pottery, they would've stayed in the race. But instead, they receive membership to the not only the aformentioned club, but also the club of "last-first-last" teams. They are eliminated with an average of 6.00, a good average for a third-boot.


Offline CanadianOwl

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Re: TAR Canada 5 Team Averages
« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2017, 09:37:04 PM »
After Leg 4

Standings (by Average)
Team  Current Average  Current Position  Other Positions
Sam & Paul
3.00
1
4, 3, 4
Zed & Shabbir
3.50
2
5, 6, 1
Adam & Andrea
4.00
3
3, 7, 3
Kenneth & Ryan
4.00
4
1, 5, 6ε
Korey & Ivana
4.50
6
2, 8, 2
Karen & Bert
5.00
5
6, 4, 5ε
Andrea & Ebonie
5.75
7*
7**, 2, 7
Eliminated Teams
Megan & Courtney
6.00
8∆∆ε
9, 1
Dan & Riya
8.50
9
8
Aaron & Deb
10.00
10
N/A

Summary copied from my reddit post:

A non-elimination leg had to happen at some point, so Andrea & Ebonie are saved by the NEL despite being in last. And since it's a keep on racing leg, they don't even have to do a Speed Bump.

Sam & Paul break through and finally get a leg win, and keep their Top 4 streak going. Getting out of the roadblock first was critical to taking 1st. Zed & Shabbir improve their average more with a 2nd place finish, exceeding my expectations of them to be a mid-level team that sneaks into the final so far.

Adam & Andrea have three 3rd place finishes in 4 legs, and look to be going far in the race. Dancing detour and the tourist task set them back a bit, but they did well in the roadblock. Kenneth & Ryan maintain their average of 4 with a 4th place finish. Karen & Bert have a Karen & Bert leg again and get 5th place again. So far, K&B are the most consistent team, deviating from their placement by only 1 from 5.

Korey & Ivana overcome a bad taxi, a bad back, switching detours, and a less than ok tourist task, and they have a good roadblock to avoid last place again. They seem to be experts at escaping last place by a hair. Meanwhile, Andrea & Ebonie have a bad detour (where they switched), and an unlucky roadblock puts them in 7th place again. They are the foil to Adam & Andrea, where one is third 3 of 4 times, and the other is seventh 3 of 4 times, making the 2nd leg a weird leg.

Overall, the race is close, with averages being separated by only 2.75. Every leg has had a different winner, and some placements have been all over the place. This race is looking to be a very competitive one.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2017, 12:42:23 AM by CanadianOwl »

Offline CanadianOwl

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Re: TAR Canada 5 Team Averages **Contains Current Spoilers**
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2017, 12:52:53 AM »
After Leg 5

Standings (by Average)
Team  Current Average  Current Position  Other Positions
Sam & Paul
3.00
3
4, 3, 4, 1
Adam & Andrea
3.40
1
3, 7, 3, 3
Kenneth & Ryan
4.00
4
1, 5, 6ε, 4
Korey & Ivana
4.80
6
2, 8, 2, 6
Andrea & Ebonie
5.00
2
7**, 2, 7, 7*
Karen & Bert
5.00
5
6, 4, 5ε, 5
Eliminated Teams
Zed & Shabbir
4.20
7
5, 6, 1, 2
Megan & Courtney
6.00
8∆∆ε
9, 1
Dan & Riya
8.50
9
8
Aaron & Deb
10.00
10
N/A

Summary copied from my reddit post:

Adam & Andrea go for the Fast Forward and get their first 1st place finish of the leg, even though they have a good streak going. Andrea & Ebonie and Sam & Paul are close and finish 2nd & 3rd, respectively. Just when you think A&E is going home, they pull a good performance out of their ass, even when getting lost to the pier. S&P overcome some difficulties and take advantage of taking the easy detour to stay in the top 4 yet again.

Kenneth & Ryan hold their 4th place spot, even though they also got lost getting to the pier and initially going for the Fast Forward. Karen & Bert somehow stay 5th, even though they had a good lead out of the puppet task. The tuk-tuk detour was more time-consuming than the surfing one, and have a Karen & Bert leg yet again.

Korey & Ivana become the comeback team yet again, and escape elimination despite a bad taxi to the Fast Forward, getting out of the puppet task second-to-last, taking the longer detour, and getting a horrible taxi to the Pit Stop. Plus, Ivana's back is injured, and no one has gotten any proper pit stop rest since the Nelson, BC Pit Stop 4 days prior.

Zed & Shabbir. I really thought they would be a dark horse to make the final 3. And looking at their average, they were a good team. But 4 days without proper rest really showed, as they didn't read the fact that they couldn't speak at the puppet task. Shabbir's age also proved to be fatal, as he couldn't do the surfing detour, and the falls made his body ache that wouldn't cause that much pain in younger bodies. The switching of detours was just the final nail in the coffin.

All active averages are within 2, but it looks like Karen & Bert are the next team eliminated. Karen & Bert legs can only take them so far, and the fact that they've gotten this far is a feat in itself. The rest are all in contention for winning the race, as the rest have been 1st or 2nd in a leg at least once.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 09:55:03 PM by CanadianOwl »

Offline CanadianOwl

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Re: TAR Canada 5 Team Averages **Contains Current Spoilers**
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2017, 09:59:46 PM »
After Leg 6

Standings (by Average)
Team  Current Average  Current Position       Other Positions
Sam & Paul
2.83
2
4, 3, 4, 1, 3
Adam & Andrea
3.00
1
3, 7, 3, 3, 1
Kenneth & Ryan
4.17
5
1, 5, 6ε, 4, 4
Korey & Ivana
4.50
3
2, 8, 2, 6, 6
Karen & Bert
4.83
4
6, 4, 5ε, 5, 5
Andrea & Ebonie
5.17
6*
7**, 2, 7, 7*, 2
Eliminated Teams
Zed & Shabbir
4.20
7
5, 6, 1, 2
Megan & Courtney
6.00
8∆∆ε
9, 1
Dan & Riya
8.50
9
8
Aaron & Deb
10.00
10
N/A

Summary copied from my reddit post:

The double U-Turn doesn't matter much, as this leg is a NEL. However, the U-Turn did affect the standings in the Leg, and the averages.

Sam & Paul's great navigational skills allows them to leap all teams from the Roadblock to the Detour, as everyone else is confused about the Ottawa streets. They take advantage of the U-Turn, and U-Turn the best of the non-alliance teams. They lose their lead at the citizenship test, but still keep their top 4 streak with a 2nd place finish, and become the first team with a 2. average after multiple legs.

Adam & Andrea become the first team to be 1st in multiple legs this season (though that's with the aid of a Fast Forward). Their decision to not U-Turn a team might cost them relationships in the future, but their only alliance was with a strong team and the weakest team going into the final 6, so that won't affect them much. They're climbing the average standings, and are probably going to be in the final 3.

Kenneth & Ryan get U-Turned, but the motivation from the brother (lol) allows them to finish the art task and the citizenship test before the other U-Turned team, and avoid the Speed Bump.

Korey & Ivana have loads of trouble with directions again, but not only got to the U-Turn board before K&R and Andrea & Ebonie, but managed to U-Turn the only other team behind them that they could've U-Turned despite leaving after them. I would've thought that Ivana would've done well on the test, but then it came up that she was 12 when she became a citzen, and didn't have to do the test. Either way, they recover from near-elimination from the last two legs and get 3rd.

I laughed when Karen & Bert got out of the detour first, as they are almost always in the back half of the pack, but then got me frustrated when they didn't U-Turn. They should know that S&P are the strongest team, and that they should've tried and get them out. It's not like they're in alliance with anybody.

Andrea & Ebonie must have a horseshoe up their ass, as they were last on a NEL again. Their incompetence in directions cost them this leg, and will cost them time in the next leg. I don't see them making it out of last, but they did get 2nd the last time they were in this position.


Offline CanadianOwl

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Re: TAR Canada 5 Team Averages **Contains Current Spoilers**
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2017, 10:39:39 PM »
After Leg 7

Standings (by Average)
Team  Current Average  Current Position
               Other Positions
Sam & Paul
2.57
1
4, 3, 4, 1, 3, 2
Adam & Andrea
3.00
3
3, 7, 3, 3, 1, 1
Kenneth & Ryan
3.86
2
1, 5, 6ε, 4, 4, 5
Korey & Ivana
4.57
5
2, 8, 2, 6, 6, 3
Karen & Bert
4.71
4
6, 4, 5ε, 5, 5, 4
Eliminated Teams
Zed & Shabbir
4.20
7
5, 6, 1, 2
Andrea & Ebonie
5.29
6~
7**, 2, 7, 7*, 2, 6*
Megan & Courtney
6.00
8∆∆ε
9, 1
Dan & Riya
8.50
9
8
Aaron & Deb
10.00
10
N/A

Summary copied from my reddit post:

We get our first Face-Off leg, and we are back in Newfoundland (only on the other side of the island)!

Sam & Paul get an emotional boost for this leg, and they crush the leg, continuing their top 4 streak. They are the front runners to win the race.

Adam & Andrea stumble on the roadblock, and end up in 3rd. However, they are sitting comfortably in 2nd in the average standings.

Kenneth & Ryan are finally in the top pack for the first time since leg 1 with a 2nd place finish. They had a good enough leg.

Korey & Ivana again avoid elimination by being second-last. Korey doing nature in the nature was the highlight of the episode.

Karen & Bert have a Karen & Bert leg. They stumble on the tasks, but come out in either 6th, 5th, or 4th. They are somehow probably making the finale through some bizarre luck with the fact that they are still in the race with their errors.

Andrea & Ebonie are finally gone. Narrowly avoid elimination by luck or something finally ends, and that Speed Bump and losing the Face-Off sealed the deal for them.

Logically, Karen & Bert are next to be eliminated, but that would make too much sense for the race, so I'll choose Korey & Ivana as the next eliminated team instead.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2017, 10:46:02 PM by CanadianOwl »

Offline CanadianOwl

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Re: TAR Canada 5 Team Averages **Contains Current Spoilers**
« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2017, 08:14:21 PM »
This is NOT for Leg 9's episode today, it's for last week's episode in Panama.

After Leg 8

Standings (by Average)
Team  Current Average  Current Position             Other Positions
Sam & Paul
2.38
1
4, 3, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1
Adam & Andrea
3.00
3
3, 7, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3
Kenneth & Ryan
3.63
2
1, 5, 6ε, 4, 4, 5, 2
Korey & Ivana
4.50
4
2, 8, 2, 6, 6, 3, 5
Karen & Bert
4.75
5*
6, 4, 5ε, 5, 5, 4, 4
Eliminated Teams
Zed & Shabbir
4.20
7
5, 6, 1, 2
Andrea & Ebonie
5.29
6~
7**, 2, 7, 7*, 2, 6*
Megan & Courtney
6.00
8∆∆ε
9, 1
Dan & Riya
8.50
9
8
Aaron & Deb
10.00
10
N/A

Summary copied from my reddit post:

A great international leg in Panama, with twists, turns, and lots of opportunity to catch up, even at the end.

Sam & Paul get lost and switch detours, but get out of the band challenge first + finding the correct Panama sign on the first go gets them 1st again, and gives more merit in them being the strongest team on the race.

Adam & Andrea love #3, and it continues here, despite switching detours and a terrible time at the band challenge. Luckily, they went to the correct sign on the first go, and sneak in front of 2 teams to be 3rd. While they are the closest challengers to Sam & Paul, you can't love #3 forever on the race.

Kenneth & Ryan have finally recovered, and take 2nd again. Despite switching detours, and seeing double on the butterflies, extra credit and lost teams allow them to take 2nd. I would like to point out that the teams that were drunk were top 3.

Korey & Ivana have been the second-to-last team 5 times, which is one away from tying the TAR record. A good detour is vanished by the band challenge and going to the wrong sign. Luckily, the next team made the same mistake, and thus avoid last again.

Karen & Bert got the mother's day edit, and they had a bad leg. Lost on the roadblock, forced to redo the detour because of left-handedness, and then going to the wrong sign. But, that's their type of leg, and if it gets them this far, a NEL will carry them even further.

 

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