Author Topic: TAR 30: Pre-Race Speculation (Will contain 29 Cast and Location Spoilers)  (Read 79322 times)

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Offline Leafsfan

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I'm just going off what we've seen in the past few years of TAR.
Singapore has never been visited in a westward race. I highly doubt they'll change it up now.
There will be no Taiwan because it's clear CBS doesn't like Taiwan and recieves a lot of sponsors from China. This explains the overuse of China and the underuse of Taiwan, which has a lot of cool things to be done.
No west africa because the only visitable west african country is namibia, and that was just visited. Angola is still plagued with land mines.
No south africa. Here's why:

Have you read the threads here? Taiwan recently sponsored a casting call, ie they are a sponsor. TAR26 flew into Taiwan first (I would assume because of sponsorship) before flying to Tokyo (even though there are direct flights from LAX into Tokyo).

Your whole post is just made up of guesses (and sorry some are just bad).


Offline gamerfan09

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No south africa. Here's why:
Quote
South Africa is notorious for an extraordinarily high violent crime rate (although part of this may be due to better crime reporting than most developing countries). It's not unheard of for the police to refuse to leave their air-conditioned offices to investigate crime on the basis that "it's too dangerous out there!" South Africa is consistently ranked at somewhere between 14 to 18 among the countries with the highest murder rates in the world (31.8 per 100,000 per year as of 2013).

I was just there and while there IS an inkling of a high crime rate particularly at night (most establishments are closed by 9 PM), South Africa is relatively safe and I had a wonderful time there.

As long as they don't make racers go at night or in dangerous areas, I don't see why they can't go there? TAR2 and 7 did it.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 08:12:43 PM by gamerfan09 »
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Offline claude_24hrs

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I was just there and while there IS an inkling of a high crime rate particularly at night (most establishments are closed by 9 PM), South Africa is relatively safe and I had a wonderful time there.

As long as they don't make racers go at night or in dangerous areas, I don't see why they can't go there? TAR2 and 7 did it.

South Africa is definitely safe and Cape Town is a better place to visit, including a nearby South Africa wine region particularly in towns of Paarl, Franschhoek, Pniel and Stellenbosch.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2017, 01:02:40 AM by claude_24hrs »
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Educated speculation is always appreciated. Consider flights, terrorism, climate for starters.

Leafs is correct about Taiwan sponsoring a casting call. Although the route via Taiwan previously I believe at have been more to allow production to get ahead.

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Offline cbacbacba1

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We have had 3 consecutive eastward routes recently
as well as 4 consecutive visits to South America already

So I hope it will be a westward route with an Oceania visit for TAR30


Offline dryedmangoez

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If TAR really wanted to switch things up, TAR30 should have a westward, Oceania/Asia-heavy route. There's definitely a lot of diverse locations in Oceania and Asia that could fulfill the different tropical, rural and urban location checklist.

Offline gamerfan09

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why do we even want them to go back to oceania lol no australia leg is beating the first tar2 visit and new zealand, tar13 aside, also hosts really bad legs
« Last Edit: June 27, 2017, 05:31:07 AM by gamerfan09 »
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Offline cbacbacba1

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why do we even want them to go back to oceania lol no australia leg is beating the first tar2 visit and new zealand, tar13 aside, also hosts really bad legs
They could have some new countries like Fiji or revisiting Guam instead

Offline Plaidmoon

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why do we even want them to go back to oceania lol no australia leg is beating the first tar2 visit and new zealand, tar13 aside, also hosts really bad legs

So, if we have a really good leg or a few really bad legs in a country, TAR should retire them and never go back? That makes no sense to me. If you have a history of good legs, I'd think you'd want to go back and duplicate it. If you have bad legs, I'd think you could improve that. Any country should be capable of having a good leg.

As for Oceania, I hope they go there, but it is more expensive to do so. Tahiti was very expensive and I believe that it affected the destination choices in the rest of that season. I'm not sure, but I think there are fewer flight choices into the various islands. Australia would be different of course.

Offline naejae91

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Re: South Africa

I thought SA are generally safe and I think production will be fine as long as they planned the leg happen on mid-day and the security team joining them.
Sidenote: I think they visited one of the "dangerous areas" in TAR2 Cape Town leg where a local saying "If you go there, there's a lot of criminals and will kill you." but end up nothing happened.

Re: Oceania

Like Plaidmoon said the flights both get into and get out from South Pacific islands was very limited. Most of the flights there need a airport connection via Australia or New Zealand so I think production might end up insert a few Australia and/or New Zealand leg in order to gave convenience and appropriate head start for production side. (See 22 Oceania legs.) Not to mention Australia and New Zealand legs would act as pseudo Europe leg just in case there's no or less Europe leg featured on the season judging the recent security problem on Europe. (See 2 which is the only US season so far did not feature any Europe leg.) But then a bunch of early Oceania leg start would mean it's potentially more expensive to produced than the early Europe leg start.
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Offline claude_24hrs

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Re: Europe for naejae91

I really think will have a less Europe leg, mostly in Northern regions such as Latvia and Finland within a westward route, oppose of overused Germanic-speaking countries of this continent.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2017, 07:00:44 AM by claude_24hrs »
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Offline cbacbacba1

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Eastern and Northern Europe are generally safer than Western Europe

Perhaps we can get one of the Baltic states visited and one other Eastern Europe countries (Czech / Hungary / Slovakia)

Production costs in these countries are generally cheaper as well, which can compensate the higher production costs needed for early Oceania legs

Offline RealityFan11

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If this season had oceania, southeastern asia, eastern europe, eastern africa, and a visit to north america other than USA would be great and be like an average budget. Plis, if they go north and south like 2 times, it would make the route longer similar to how the older routes were linger than nowadays (ex: France -> Namibia -> Netherlands -> Peru)

Offline gamerfan09

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http://www.imdb.com/title/tt6886468/?ref_=ttep_ep1

I don't know how reliable IMDB is, but Episode One is listed as "airs 2018".

We're more likely to end up on January like Hunted did than be a midseason replacement IMO.
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Offline Leafsfan

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Sometime shortly after the Emmys (Sept 17) is likely going to be our filming date... ;)


Offline elthemagnifico

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http://www.imdb.com/title/tt6886468/?ref_=ttep_ep1

I don't know how reliable IMDB is, but Episode One is listed as "airs 2018".

We're more likely to end up on January like Hunted did than be a midseason replacement IMO.


IMDB sometimes can be unreliable... Members non- IMDB staff can edit in
what might have been

Offline nrh2110

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Okay so give a little of a break, I just joined and I really wanted to chip in because I just spent the night binge watching and then trying to find any hints of Amazing Race 30 and I came across this.

I didn't read most of the posts in this thread (I did read the entire first page though) but I kinda glanced in and out, so if I'm repeating things that have been said, forgive me.

So first off, I'm going to agree that they're gonna go to Australia or Oceania first. We also have to consider that it's pretty much guaranteed to start in LAX, and the first destination (at least when going to westbound) seems to always have at least one nonstop flight. This limits us to Fiji (Nadi), Tahiti (Papeete), New Zealand (Auckland), and Australia (Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane). So I think any other Oceania countries can be counted out.

I also saw someone say something recently about Angola. I highly doubt they will ever go to Angola because inflation there has made things ridiculously expensive. I read somewhere something about a whole watermelon costing like $100, so I doubt CBS will allow them to go there. Along with that, it's ridiculously hard to get a Visa to Angola, so that basically assures us that it will never happen.

I do too agree the possibility of South Africa. I was actually just noticing that the other day. Also agree the SA won't be visited. Maybe also a return to Ethiopia, or Kenya (seeing as they've only gone there for a quick stop in 5), or maybe somewhere new like Lomé (although I think this will be reserved for a cross from SA to Africa in a future season, if there is a future season). Maybe Abidjan, Ivory Coast? I think that South Africa is highly overdue and that's extremely likely.

If it happens to be that CBS wants to make this "go out with a bang" I think we might be able to count on Nepal. Phil Keoghan said in a Reddit AMA a while back that if he had to pick a new country for them to go to, he would really like to go to Nepal. But also, like someone said, India hasn't really been visited much lately, so that might not happen because they don't ever do two countries in that part of Southeast Asia. Speaking of Asia, if it's an All Stars, they'll probably go to Kuala Lumpur and visit Batu Caves, as they've done it in both All Stars.

If they go to the Middle East, I don't think Qatar is going to happen, due to recent current events involving the area and the US government (thanks Trump) kinda not supporting Qatar, but who knows. Plus Doha is a HUGE airline hub, which Amazing Race likes to go to due to flexibility, but I don't see it happening. Doubt UAE because it's overused, and Turkey is definitely not happening (even though it's not bad at all, it's just Western media hyping it up). Jordan would be a safe bet, especially with flexible flights. Other plausible bets would be Oman and Bahrain. If not once again for Western perceptions, I would say Egypt, especially with TAR 5 being a favorite and having only been there once.

Speaking of favorites, I also think, going off the theory of "ending on a bang" there'll be a country with a memorable switchback. I was thinking possibly England for the watermelon challenge from season 17 or maybe St Petersburg with the caviar challenge from season 5 (but I don't think Russia's going to happen with the tensions between US and Russia right now) or the padlocks from season 6 in China. Maybe find a way to make the tea challenge from Unfinished Business work. You get the idea.

Also final country needs to have a nonstop flight to the US. Maybe Iceland? Iceland has become really popular lately, and with airlines like WOW and IcelandAir this is a possibility. Other possibilities include Madrid (which hasn't really been visited ever), Copenhagen, Stockholm, Germany, or maybe even Dublin—if it ends in Europe. If it ends in North America, then it's a complete wild card. Would say Cuba, but now with Trump trying to embargo Cuba again that's unlikely. Maybe Port of Spain, Toronto, Montreal, Kingston, San José, San Salvador or Santo Domingo? If it ends in Latin America, the end city would need to be Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Washington (unlikely seeing as they just did that in S22) New York (or maybe Charlotte?) due to limited nonstop flights, unless they don't start in LAX.

Going back though, Europe, I do agree that they'll probably not do France due to too many times plus the terror attacks. Switzerland also due to overuse. Maybe same with Germany (I know I said it as a possibility as a penultimate stop, but still)? Riga is a great possibility, with many flights to Riga daily from all over the place. I'd count Slovakia out, as flights are limited, so they would have to take a train from Vienna or Prague (Prague would be a good choice though). Serbia maybe, as Belgrade is a flight hub and they haven't gone there yet. I do like the idea of Belarus, and feel it would be a good alternative to Russia itself. Like I said before, Madrid surprisingly hasn't had a pit stop (I don't recall them ever visiting either), so it's a strong possibility, especially as a penultimate stop if they fly directly from Europe back to the US.

Okay so that's my theories as to locations.

As to casting:

First off, I agree with the speculation it won't be new teams.

I do feel if they're not "ending on a bang" it won't be an "All-Stars" per say, but it would be like an "Unfinished Business 2". I just don't think they'll have an All Stars that close to another, plus if they did, then they would have to once again bring back fan favorites like the Globetrotters, Cowboys, and Margie and Luke, which would be too much. If they did an Unfinished Business, it would give them an excuse to start fresh just like they did with the previous UB.

We also have so many teams perfect to settle unfinished business:

From 25:

- Cyclists were u-turned *edit: the fast forward cost them, my bad*
- Surfers struggled at the final roadblock

26:

- Would say Hayley and Blair, but Blair is engaged, although apparently they're still good friends
- Truck Stop Love eliminated part way through final leg

27:

- Tiffany and Krysta in Macao's roadblock
- Texas dealing with the speed bump and a u turn on top of it

28:

- Burnie and Ashley switching detours
- Frisbee boys getting u-turned and having the second u-turn burned
- Sheri and Cole - Sheri struggling with the LA roadblock

29:

- Team Fun in Ninh Binh heat + roadblock
- The Boys missing the metro and then getting in a bad taxi

Honorable Mentions:

- Mike and Liz (29)
- Blair and Scott (28)
- Harley and Jonathan (26)

My other casting theory is IF they "end on a bang". I feel if they do that, they'll pull teams from all previous seasons, so I'd say we could expect teams like Charla and Mirna, BJ and Tyler, Rob and Brennan, to come back from early seasons (if they allow winners to go again). I'd also entertain the idea of doing a season with ONLY winners, so again, Rob and Brennan and BJ and Tyler, Euchenna and Joyce (they are divorced but apparently still good friends) but also other memorable winners like Nat and Kat and Dave and Connor. If they do the latter, I feel that they may also expand back to 12. I think a cool idea would be to bring back teams that were eliminated first, but I highly doubt they'd do that.

Anyways those are my predictions. Feel free to yell at me for repeating other theories (if I did) or being so interruptive. :)
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 11:37:53 PM by nrh2110 »

Offline BourkieBoy

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Offline Lemontail

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We also have so many teams perfect to settle unfinished business:

From 25:

- Cyclists were u-turned
- Surfers struggled at the final roadblock


They didn't get U-Turned, they lost the Fast Forward to Adam & Bethany which put them in back of the pack.
Whatever.

Offline naejae91

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Welcome to RFF nrh2110.


Your post made me think that if CBS and WRP want TAR30 to be "the show cancellation last season with a bang" style, route wise I think they need to have a westward route (For the first time we have eastward route for last three consecutive season since the inception of westward route in TAR10) with whole influx of new and underused countries/locales and maybe having Africa leg on the last few leg before flying back US for final leg which only TAR10 nearly happened.


Speaking of possible new or underused countries I think Middle East region would have biggest challenge to achieve this due to political stability in general. I would say Israel instead because despite I read somewhere the cost spending on producing a Israel leg would be unusually high but the payoff would be magnificent and might fit the "bang" theme. Though I only expected they would only host a leg and most likely running around Jerusalem due to that said high cost production but I think it can delivered very well on "Wow!!! Look at this magnificent location it's so amazing" sense.
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Offline nrh2110

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We also have so many teams perfect to settle unfinished business:

From 25:

- Cyclists were u-turned
- Surfers struggled at the final roadblock


They didn't get U-Turned, they lost the Fast Forward to Adam & Bethany which put them in back of the pack.

You're right, my bad. I haven't seen season 25 in like a year (I'm currently rewatching all seasons in order and I just got to 24), but I checked and you're right. My apologies.

Welcome to RFF nrh2110.


Your post made me think that if CBS and WRP want TAR30 to be "the show cancellation last season with a bang" style, route wise I think they need to have a westward route (For the first time we have eastward route for last three consecutive season since the inception of westward route in TAR10) with whole influx of new and underused countries/locales and maybe having Africa leg on the last few leg before flying back US for final leg which only TAR10 nearly happened.


Speaking of possible new or underused countries I think Middle East region would have biggest challenge to achieve this due to political stability in general. I would say Israel instead because despite I read somewhere the cost spending on producing a Israel leg would be unusually high but the payoff would be magnificent and might fit the "bang" theme. Though I only expected they would only host a leg and most likely running around Jerusalem due to that said high cost production but I think it can delivered very well on "Wow!!! Look at this magnificent location it's so amazing" sense.

I find it very unlikely that they'll go to Israel. Amazing Race is struggling with ratings as it is and I think going to Israel would hurt that, seeing as Israel is not well-liked by a quite significant amount of viewers. I personally think it's likely they'll completely skip the Middle East, but this was just speculation if they went this time around, especially if they go to somewhere like India or Nepal, because often when they go to the Middle East, they skip that area (such as 23 and 28), and having not gone to that region these past two seasons and only once in the past five seasons, I think we can count on it. And especially if they're ending with a bang, because then they'll probably go to Nepal.



Also on a side note, I also just realized they may also bring Mark and Bopper back for an Unfinished Business, seeing as their unfinished business is that Bopper had to drop out of the race, especially since they're so well-loved and they really need the money.

Offline georgiapeach

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:welcome: to RFF nrh2110 ! Loved your post, lots of good info in there!

Based on what I know...this is not "a go out with a bang" season, perhaps more of a "whoohoo we are back!!!" season?

Should be all new players. ;) this time. 31 on the other hand...  :sab

I think wherever we go this time it will be an epic route. Hoping for shades of TAR 5, perhaps the longest one ever?

You are in the right place for spoilers, you can explore our TAR 29 thread to see what the team can do here!!

Have fun!





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Offline RamMendez997

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This is a race route I prefer.

1: (USA->Australia)
Starting Line: Hollywood Bowl
LAX->Brisbane
Brisbane->Gold Coast

(I think TAR should definitely visit the Q1 Tower and Surfer's Beach.)

2: (Australia->Cambodia)

Gold Coast->Siem Reap

(must visit Angkor Wat)

3: (Cambodia)

Siem Reap->Phnom Penh

(Cambodia is worth visiting for two legs one leg in Siem Reap and one in Phnom Penh.)

4: (Cambodia->Nepal)

Phnom Penh->Solukhumbu District, Nepal

(I don't think it's realistic to go to Mount Everest, but Phil always said he wanted to visit Nepal, and this is the closest you can get to it.)

5: (Nepal->Jordan)

Solukhumbu District->Petra, Jordan

(Petra is a world wonder and it is a shame TAR has not visited Jordan. Idk about Jordan's political situation right now, though.)

6: (Jordan->Croatia)

Petra, Jordan->Zagreb, Croatia

(Either that or it is Dubrovnik that should be visited.)

7: (Croatia->Cameroon)

(TAR has yet to visit Cameroon.)

8: (Cameroon)

(It is the only country in Africa that is being visited, so it is worthy of a double leg.)

9: (Cameroon->France)

(I'd prefer to visit Mont Sant Michel in Normandy. Also, Normandy played significant roles in World War 2 including the site of D-Day.)

10: (France->Dominican Republic)

Normandy->Paris->Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

(The Dominican Republic was the site of Columbus's landing, and TAR has never visited the country.)

11: (Dominican Republic)

Santo Domingo->Puerto Plata

(The Dominican Republic has a rich culture and for the info mentioned in the previous leg is worthy of a double leg.)

12: (Dominican Republic->USA)

Puerto Plata->Santo Domingo->Orlando, Florida, USA

Possible Finish Line: Camping World Stadium or Cocoa Beach

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Welcome to RFF RamMendez997

Your wishlist is fantastic, however it should go here: http://forum.realityfanforum.com/index.php/topic,15213.3900/topicseen.html  :)